截至8月1日8时30分，国际现货黄金已跌破3300美元/盎司，报3289.26美元/盎司。 国内金饰现价也普遍跌至1000元/克下方。 | 国内现货 | 国际现货 | 黄金实物 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 晋陵 | 银行 回收 | | | | 品牌 | | 价格(元/克) | 日涨跌幅 | | 周大福 | | 998 | 0.00% | | 老凤祥 | | ઠેઠેર | -0.70% | | 周六福 | | 978 | 0.00% | | 周生生 | | 991 | -1.00% | | 六福珠宝 | | 998 | 0.00% | | 芙圭章 | | 998 | 0.00% | | 老庙 | | | ● 29 或者 20 | 据央视财经此前报道，市场对美联储降息预期遇冷，美元指数延续上涨势头，国际金价周四承压下跌。 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3348.6美元，跌幅为0.13%。今年7月，因美国政府 关税威胁，国际金价一度涨回每盎司3400美元关口上方。此后，随着美国政府陆续与主要贸易伙伴达成 协议，国际金价涨幅收窄，7月累计小幅上涨，涨幅为1.24 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula expressed concerns over the U.S. tariff threats, indicating that Brazil will not yield to U.S. decisions regarding trade and politics [1] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Impact - The U.S. announced a 50% tariff on goods imported from Brazil starting August 1 [1] - Lula stated that the tariff threats have caused "concern" in Brazil [1] Group 2: Political and Trade Relations - Lula attempted to contact Trump regarding tariff issues, but there was no willingness for communication from the U.S. side [1] - He emphasized that Brazil is prepared to engage in both political and trade discussions, but the U.S. should not conflate the two issues [1]

消息人士：过去一周，印度国有炼油商因折扣减少和特朗普的关税威胁而停止购买俄罗斯石油。 ...

市场分析：市场对特朗普最新关税威胁的无视存在风险 金十数据7月31日讯，Northwestern Mutual首席投资官Brent Schutte表示，美联储与市场一样，对经济前 景仍存疑虑，内部意见分歧也日益加剧。虽然异议声音本身不会决定政策方向，但反映出央行更广泛的 不确定性。一个关键的变数是特朗普最新宣布的对印度25%关税。Schutt称，市场目前基本无视这一最 新关税威胁，认为白宫可能在必要时掉头。但他警告称，这种押注可能存在风险，尤其是当企业开始将 关税成本转嫁给消费者时。尽管如此，在关税影响完全显现之前，美国实际私人国内采购支出已明显放 缓。一旦企业涨价，美联储将很快陷入"通胀上升与经济放缓"之间的艰难权衡。 ...

Group 1 - The São Paulo Stock Exchange index in Brazil closed down by 1.04%, reaching 132,000 points [1] - The Brazilian real depreciated by 0.44% against the US dollar, trading at 5.5886 reais, continuing to struggle around the 5.58 reais mark since the sharp decline on July 9 [1] - Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin announced that a response plan to the US tariff threats is ready [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new US-EU trade agreement has been criticized for being biased and detrimental to European interests, with calls for a stronger EU response to US tariffs [1][3][16]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The US has reduced tariffs on EU goods from previously proposed rates of 20% and 30% to 15% [3]. - The agreement includes a commitment for the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US and plans for $600 billion in US investments, though the specifics remain unclear [3]. Group 2: EU's Response and Strategy - Analysts believe that the EU's response to US tariffs has been too slow and ineffective, with missed opportunities for a stronger stance alongside China [4][5]. - The EU had initially prepared a three-point plan to address the trade imbalance, which included increasing imports of US goods and proposing mutual tariff reductions [5]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Challenges - There are significant internal divisions within the EU regarding the approach to the US, with some officials advocating for a tougher stance while others prefer a more conciliatory approach [10][11]. - The EU's reliance on US security guarantees has further complicated its ability to confront US trade policies [14]. Group 4: Criticism of the Agreement - Critics, including European officials, argue that the agreement represents a capitulation to US demands and fails to provide equitable terms for Europe [16]. - The agreement's provisions for increased US military technology purchases and investment commitments are seen as detrimental to European industry and employment [16].

Core Viewpoint - The core issue revolves around whether the European Union can offer a sufficiently attractive deal to persuade President Trump to abandon the 30% tariff threat [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, emphasizes the importance of the EU's negotiation strategy in relation to tariff discussions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian pig iron producers are considering halting operations due to reduced demand from U.S. customers caused by tariff threats [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Modulax's CEO, Geraldo Basques, announced that the company will cease operations next week and plans maintenance work later this year, with no set date for resuming production due to trade concerns [1] - Competitor Css Siderurgica Setelagoana stated that it is currently operating using raw material inventory while awaiting clarity on tariff situations, but may be forced to stop production once the inventory is depleted [1] Group 2: Market Context - The U.S. is the largest buyer of Brazilian pig iron, making the market highly sensitive to tariff changes [1] - President Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Latin American countries starting August 1, which has heightened uncertainty in the trade environment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that American Airlines (AAL.US) reported a 0.4% year-over-year revenue increase to $14.4 billion in Q2, exceeding analyst expectations of $14.3 billion, but net profit fell by 16.4% to $599 million [1] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 were $0.95, surpassing the analyst consensus of $0.75 [1] - Despite better-than-expected Q2 results, the company's 2025 earnings guidance was disappointing, with adjusted EPS projected between -$0.2 and $0.8, with a midpoint of $0.3, lower than the analyst expectation of $0.72 [1] Group 2 - American Airlines' outlook for the second half of the year contrasts sharply with the more optimistic forecasts from United Airlines (UAL.US) and Delta Airlines (DAL.US) [1] - The company noted that if the domestic market continues to strengthen, its full-year performance could reach the upper end of its guidance range, while new macroeconomic weaknesses could push it to the lower end [1] - CEO Robert Isom mentioned that July was a challenging month due to weak consumer demand, but he believes that supply-demand conditions will become more favorable for airlines in 2025 [2]

Market Performance - The US stock market reached new highs on July 21, with the Nasdaq Composite Index surpassing 21,000 points for the first time, peaking at 21,077.37 points and closing up 0.38% at 20,974.17 points [1] - The S&P 500 Index also set a record, hitting an intraday high of 6,336.08 points and closing up 0.14% at 6,305.60 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed relative weakness, declining 0.04% to close at 44,323.07 points [1] - The S&P 500's communication services sector led the gains with a 1.90% increase, followed by consumer discretionary at 0.60%, while the energy sector was the biggest loser, down 0.96% [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks drove the market's rise, with Alphabet up 2.72%, Meta up 1.23%, Amazon up 1.43%, and Apple up 0.62%, although Tesla saw a decline of 0.35% despite earlier gains [2] - The upcoming earnings reports from Tesla and Google are anticipated to be critical in assessing the market's high valuations [2] Corporate Earnings - Strong corporate earnings are a key catalyst for market growth, with over 85% of the 62 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeding market expectations, significantly above the long-term average of 48% [4] - The seven major tech companies expected to report earnings are projected to lead a 14.1% growth in S&P 500 earnings for the quarter [4] Currency Impact - The US dollar index fell 0.62% to 97.84, creating a favorable exchange rate environment for US companies' overseas revenues [4] - Goldman Sachs' analysis suggests that a 10% decline in the dollar could increase S&P 500 earnings per share by approximately 2% to 3% [4] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Trump administration's tariff threats continue to loom over the market, with new tariffs expected to be implemented in two weeks [6] - Despite the uncertainty, the market has shown resilience, partly due to the expectation that final tax rates may be lower than proposed [6][8] Federal Reserve Outlook - There are notable divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with some members advocating for a rate cut in July due to economic risks, while market expectations for a rate cut have cooled [8] - The probability of a rate cut in September is now seen as exceeding 50% [8] Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio is nearing historical highs, raising concerns about market valuations [10] - Despite these concerns, Wall Street remains relatively optimistic, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, reaching 6,900 points [10] Key Upcoming Events - The market will focus on key upcoming events, including earnings guidance from tech giants like Tesla and Google, signals from the Federal Reserve, and developments in tariff negotiations [10]