Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potentially chaotic meeting, with uncertainty surrounding the number of voting officials due to ongoing court rulings and Senate votes [1][2] - The Fed is expected to vote on interest rate cuts, with futures markets pricing in three cuts for the year, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4] - The outcome of the meeting may depend on the approval of CEA Chair Steven Myron and the potential for dissenting opinions regarding the extent of rate cuts [5][10] Group 2 - Market reactions to the Fed's decisions are anticipated to be influenced by the guidance provided during the meeting and the overall sentiment regarding inflation concerns [7][8] - There is speculation about how individual votes may impact the average outlook of the Fed, with particular attention to any extreme forecasts that could shift market expectations [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock-market futures are stable as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut in nine months later this week [1] Group 1 - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for potential changes in interest rates [1]

Core Insights - Financial markets have exhibited unusual behavior following the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which hinted at potential rate cuts [1] - Gold has emerged as a significant safe haven asset, experiencing a price increase of nearly 10% and closing at $3,680.70 per ounce [2] - The bond market's reaction has been unexpected, with the 30-year Treasury yield not falling immediately after Powell's speech, only declining after a weak jobs report [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and commodity prices did not respond as anticipated to the prospect of rate cuts, contrasting with the expected market behavior [2] - The dollar index has remained stable, returning to pre-speech levels, which is considered counterintuitive given the expectations for Fed easing [3] - Bitcoin's volatility has led to a sell-off post-Jackson Hole, but it has also returned to its starting point, diverging from its previous behavior as a risk asset [4] Global Economic Factors - Concerns over a potential debt crisis in France and the U.K. have contributed to rising global bond yields, with political gridlock in France affecting fiscal discipline [4] - Fitch's downgrade of France's credit rating from AA- to A+ reflects the challenges in achieving fiscal discipline, potentially driving investors towards safe-haven assets like the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday [1] Group 1 - The decision to cut interest rates is widely expected in the financial markets [1]

Friday, September 12, 2025At the risk of under-selling it, this has been an eventful week. With key inflation data milder than many had expected and jobless claims surging week over week, the U.S. economy looks primed for an interest rate cut at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week.Inflation on the retail side yesterday, via the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, saw only mild tariff pass-throughs to the consumer. Headline CPI came in at +0.4%, 10 basis points (bps) warmer ...

Group 1: European Central Bank and Eurozone Bonds - Santander Bank analysts expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% until later this year, indicating that 2% may be the lower limit for this rate cycle [1] - Barclays reports a significant decrease in net supply of Eurozone government bonds, projecting a shift from a net issuance of 780 billion euros in September to a negative 150 billion euros in October, which may support the bond market [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - ICIS economists highlight that the U.S. August CPI report complicates the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with inflation and employment data showing conflicting signals [2] - Market expectations indicate a high probability (90%) that the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut of 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, with a potential for a more aggressive cut if economic conditions worsen [4] Group 3: Japanese Economic Outlook - Moody's economists note that Japan's inflation is primarily cost-push, lacking strong demand-driven inflation, leading the Bank of Japan to likely remain on hold until economic signals become clearer [2] Group 4: Indian Economic Growth - Dun & Bradstreet reports a significant year-on-year GDP growth of 7.8% for India in Q1 FY2026, with strong performance in manufacturing sectors such as basic metals and electrical equipment [3] - The Indian central bank maintains a neutral stance with a repo rate of 5.5%, while liquidity remains in surplus [3]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) does not need to further lower interest rates to achieve stable inflation levels, according to Christodoulos Patsalides, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1] - The ECB is currently in a favorable position, with inflation risks balanced, and the next adjustment of the benchmark interest rate is more likely to be an increase [1][3] - The ECB has maintained the deposit rate at 2% for two consecutive meetings, and there is a general consensus among investors and analysts that no further rate cuts will occur following eight reductions since June 2024 [1][3] Group 2 - The Eurozone economy faces risks from U.S. trade policies established during the Trump administration, which could lead to further measures from the U.S. in response to EU actions against Google [2] - Trade tensions create dual risks for inflation: demand suppression due to risk aversion could lower inflation, while supply chain disruptions could push prices up [2] - Patsalides believes that inflation risks are balanced, with the ECB's forecast indicating a consumer price index (CPI) increase of 1.7% next year and a slight decrease in inflation expectations for 2027 compared to previous forecasts [3][6] Group 3 - The ECB's forecast suggests that inflation will temporarily deviate from the 2% target in 2026 but is expected to rebound to 1.9% by 2027, indicating no long-term concerns about inflation falling below target levels [6] - Patsalides attributes the adjustments in forecast values to technical assumptions like exchange rates rather than fundamental changes, advocating for a stable policy approach without immediate action [7]

据美国《纽约时报》和消费者新闻与商业频道等媒体11日报道，美国司法部当天申请哥伦比亚特区巡回 上诉法院"在15日下班前"作出裁决。 美联储定于16日至17日举行货币政策会议，外界普遍预期，美联储将在本次会议上启动降息进程。司法 部在紧急申请中明确提及，鉴于此次议息会议16日起举行，希望法院最晚15日作出裁决。 科布9日指出，总统解雇美联储理事的法律依据应被解读为该理事"在职期间存在不当行为"，而库克被 指的住房抵押贷款欺诈发生于她的美联储理事提名2022年获参议院确认之前。科布还指出，作出倾向于 库克的裁决，是因为公众希望美联储不受政治压力的影响。 不过据美联社报道，司法部11日提出紧急申请时强调，即便欺诈发生于库克就职美联储理事前，这一行 为"无可争议地让人质疑库克的可信度，以及她是否能成为负责任的利率与经济管理者"。 美政府请法院四日内裁决美联储理事库克一案 海洋 美国政府11日向一家联邦上诉法院提出紧急申请，要求该法院在下周美联储货币政策会议前推翻下级法 院就美联储理事莉萨·库克一案所作的裁决，从而使美国总统特朗普能够解雇库克。 【在议息前裁决】 特朗普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由宣布解除库克职 ...

European stocks look set to open higher on Friday, with early-morning data showing the U.K. economic growth stalled in July.Futures tied to the regional Stoxx 50 index were last seen trading around 0.3% higher. Those linked to London's FTSE 100 were also up by 0.3%, as were those bound to Germany's DAX index and the French CAC 40.Data released on Friday morning showed that the U.K. economy recorded zero growth in July, following a 0.4% economic expansion the previous month. The economic flatlining adds to t ...

Group 1 - The recent rate cut by the central bank in Turkey was 250 basis points, exceeding market expectations of 200 basis points, indicating a potential frontloading of cuts before the end of 2025 [2][4] - Inflation in Turkey is projected to remain high, with the central bank's interim target set at 24% and the government's midterm economic plan estimating year-end inflation at 28.5%, suggesting a challenging economic environment [3][4] - Despite the recent easing, real interest rates in Turkey remain high, with expectations that the policy rate by year-end will be in the mid-30s, around 36-37% [4][5][6] Group 2 - The central bank's cautious approach reflects concerns over potential demand for fixed income assets, as the Turkish lira has gained trust among domestic investors [5]