国收研究报告 可证券|CGS 震荡格局下波段为主、关注大 6 月债市回顾及 7 月展望 核心观点 债市回顾:利率震荡下行,收益率曲线牛陡 ● 6月以来,债市在中美谈判未超预期、央行阿护资金面、以伊冲突等因素的影响下,债 市震荡走强,短端下行幅度更大,10Y、1Y国债收益率分别下行 3BP、11BP。上半 月,在央行两度公告开展买断式逆回购呵护资金面、中美谈判未超预期、国际地缘冲突 加剧的影响下,债市走强,10Y 国债收益率下行 3BP;月下旬,在央行买断式逆回购 落地、重启国债买卖预期短暂落空、市场预期监管窗口指导的影响下,债市震荡略走 强. 10Y 国债收益率下行 0.4BP;月末,受止盈压力、权益市场走强带来的股债路路 板等影响, 债市震荡走弱, 10Y 国债收益率上行 1BP。截至 6 月 27 日，10 年期国债 收益率自1.67%下行 2.5BP 至 1.65%,1年期国债收益率自1.46%下行 11BP 至 1.35%, 期限利差走阔 8.5BP 至 30.1BP。 ● 本月债市展望:资金面大概率无虞,关注政治局会议政策加力信号 基本面来看,对于 6月,一方面继续关注 CPI 在 0 附近徘徊的可 ...

国债期货周报 2025年6月16日——6月20日 杜淑芳 期货从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000690 证券代码：839979 本周行情回顾 本周权益市场走弱，国债期货市场延续偏强震荡格局，各期限合约全线上涨，超长期限品种表现尤为亮眼。基本面数据方面，5月份，随着我 国促消费扩内需各项政策持续显效，价格呈现积极变化，特别是核心CPI同比涨幅升至近一年最高点，CPI同比降幅已连续3个月持平于0.1%，而核 心CPI同比涨幅则创近3月新高，升至近一年来最高点。PPI同比继续负增长，但在关税风险阶段性缓和，对市场风险偏好以及商品需求预期起到较 好的改善作用下，后期我国PPI也有望边际改善。5月社会消费品零售超出市场预期，显示在消费品以旧换新刺激政策下，我国内需有一定程度改善 但国固定资产投资不及预期，同时地产端商品房销售面积进一步下滑，基本面完全复苏仍然任重道远。金融数据方面，5月降息降准落地后，企业 和居民融资成本及信贷可获得性都有改善。前5个月社融增量累计18.63万亿元，同比多增3.83万亿元，显示财政政策持续发力，但信贷结构仍以政 府债券融资为主。居民消费信心不足。企业中长期贷款增 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 220.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 21.5 billion yuan due to 242 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - Last week, the central bank's net liquidity injection was 102.1 billion yuan, with 182 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing on June 17 [1] - As the end of the quarter approaches, there has been a slight increase in funding stratification, but the overall liquidity remains loose, with overnight funding rates rising slightly [1] Group 2 - This week, the scale of reverse repos maturing will rise to 960.3 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds will increase to 789.8 billion yuan, the highest level since late April [2] - Concerns about cross-quarter liquidity may arise due to the concentration of government bond payments and the issuance of large amounts of certificates of deposit [2] - The central bank's liquidity support will be crucial for maintaining stability in the banking sector's liabilities as the quarter-end approaches [2] Group 3 - Recent actions by the central bank, including buyout reverse repos, aim to maintain ample liquidity, with expectations for social financing to continue to rebound [3] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, indicating a lack of incentive for commercial banks to lower rates further [3] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose liquidity stance to counter potential external demand pressures [3] Group 4 - Future policies will be adjusted based on economic changes, with potential for increased efforts to stabilize growth in the second half of the year [4] - The establishment of new policy financial tools is anticipated to boost investment by serving as project capital [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that government bonds are supporting the increase in social financing, with a notable year-on-year increase in social financing of 22.47 billion yuan in May [2][3]. - The report suggests focusing on the investment value of bank stocks, particularly recommending China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In May, the total new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan. The increase in short-term loans for enterprises improved, while medium to long-term loans still require improvement [2][4]. - The social financing increment for May was 2.29 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, primarily driven by government bonds [2][3]. Government Bonds and Corporate Financing - The net financing of government bonds in May reached 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 231.9 billion yuan. Direct financing for enterprises increased by 164.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.2 billion yuan [3]. - The report indicates that the demand for medium to long-term credit from enterprises remains insufficient, with a total of 5.3 trillion yuan in new loans for enterprises in May, a year-on-year decrease of 210 billion yuan [4]. Monetary Supply Trends - The M2 growth rate was 7.9%, while M1 growth rate was 2.3%, showing a slight decrease in M2 and an increase in M1 compared to the previous month [5]. - In May, the total RMB deposits increased by 2.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, with a notable increase in fiscal deposits [5].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 社融总量稳定增长，政府债延续支撑 ——2025 年 5 月金融数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 5 月存量社融同比 8.7%，增速环比基本持平，从增量结构上来看，政府债和企业直接 融资为主要贡献项；信贷增量偏弱，但结构上仍有亮点，企业短贷同比正增、票据冲量规模下 降。2025 年 5 月 M1、M2 同比增速分别为 2.3%、7.9%，增速环比提升 0.8 个百分点、微降 0.1 个百分点。存款结构方面，政府债净融资带来财政存款沉淀，企业存款在去年手工补息带 来的低基数下同比少减。信贷增量表现偏弱，但今年政府债为社融增速提供趋势性支撑，随着 市场对贸易摩擦的反应逐步钝化，资金面预计仍是政策真空期影响债市的重要因素。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 社融总量稳定增长，政府 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in May, credit data was primarily contributed by the government, while the performance in the household and corporate sectors was relatively flat. The M1 money supply grew by 2.3% year-on-year, mainly due to a low base from the previous year [4][12]. - The report highlights that the issuance of government bonds has accelerated, aligning with the government's directive to implement policies promptly. It is anticipated that with more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, social financing (社融) is likely to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the short term [4][12]. - The report notes that the financing balance has increased, with net financing purchases amounting to 80.2 billion yuan, while ETF saw a net outflow of 149.4 billion yuan. The overall market financing balance reached 1,804.43 billion yuan as of June 13 [4][26]. Group 2 - In terms of market sentiment, the report indicates that the trading activity of financing funds has increased, with the equity risk premium declining. The focus has shifted towards style indices and major sectors such as the North Certificate 50, consumer discretionary, and TMT [4][35]. - The report identifies that the sectors with the highest net inflows of various funds include food and beverage, non-ferrous metals, and media. Conversely, the sectors with significant net outflows include pharmaceuticals, computers, and non-bank financials [4][44]. - The report also mentions that the net buying scale of financing funds was highest in the pharmaceutical sector (+20.6 billion yuan), followed by non-ferrous metals (+15.7 billion yuan) and food and beverage (+15.4 billion yuan) [4][46].

Group 1: Economic Resilience - In May, industrial production year-on-year growth decreased from 6.1% to 5.8%, maintaining a high growth rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[1] - Government bond net financing reached 6.3 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.8 trillion yuan year-on-year[1] - M2 and social financing balances maintained year-on-year growth rates of 7.9% and 8.7%, respectively, indicating strong monetary support[1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Total infrastructure investment year-on-year growth decreased from 10.9% to 10.4%, still above the 2024 annual rate of 9.2%[2] - Manufacturing investment year-on-year growth was 8.5%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a high level[2] - Public utility investment, including electricity, grew by 25.4% year-on-year, while water conservancy investment increased by 7.2%[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The area of newly started construction decreased by 22.8% year-on-year, indicating significant contraction in the sector[2] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline widening compared to the previous month[2] Group 4: Consumer Spending - In May, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%[3] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 53% year-on-year[3] - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 2.05 trillion yuan, indicating robust financial support for the economy[3]

Group 1 - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, particularly Israel's attacks on Iran, has led to a significant increase in oil prices and a rise in the global energy sector, along with a boost in gold prices [1] - In the U.S., May inflation was lower than expected, resulting in the dollar hitting a three-year low, while U.S. Treasury yields continued to fluctuate [1] - Domestic social financing in May showed a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, primarily supported by government bonds, although credit remains weak, particularly in medium to long-term corporate loans, potentially impacted by U.S. tariff escalations [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced fluctuations but leaned towards strength, with the central bank's active liquidity provision alleviating concerns over tight funding due to upcoming maturities [1] - The market's focus has shifted towards fundamentals as U.S.-China tariff negotiations reached a temporary resolution, with short-term geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting market risk appetite but expected to have a diminishing mid-term impact [1] - The continued weakness of the dollar is likely to attract funds into emerging markets, benefiting equity markets [1] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong stock market, multiple domestic and international factors have collectively strengthened risk appetite, with a potential continuation of this trend in the short term [2] - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has temporarily boosted oil sentiment, although global oil demand may still be affected by tariffs in the medium term [2] - Economic policy uncertainties stemming from tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, despite short-term price volatility [2]

Group 1 - The overall financial operation in China shows stable growth in total volume and continuous optimization in structure, with M2 balance at 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] - The social financing scale stock reached 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7%, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] - Government bonds have become the main driver of social financing growth, with net financing of government bonds increasing by 1.46 trillion yuan in May, accounting for over 60% of the new social financing scale [1] Group 2 - Corporate bond financing has significantly increased, with net financing scale exceeding 140 billion yuan in May, reflecting a recovery trend since the second quarter [2] - The implementation of new policies for the "technology board" has boosted the issuance of technology innovation bonds, particularly among private enterprises [2] - The average yield of 5-year AAA corporate bonds decreased to 1.97% in May, encouraging companies to increase bond financing [2] Group 3 - Personal mortgage loans have increased, with new resident loans of 54 billion yuan in May, indicating a marginal improvement in the real estate market [2] - The increase in long-term loans is primarily due to improved transactions in the real estate market, particularly in high-capacity urban core areas [2] - The growth of demand for personal mortgages suggests a gradual recovery in consumer confidence, although challenges in inventory reduction and structural optimization in real estate remain [2] Group 4 - The growth rate of demand deposits has accelerated, with M1 increasing by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting improved market demand due to financial support measures [3] - The increase in M1 indicates a rise in real purchasing power, while the flow of funds between deposits and wealth management products has become more frequent [3] - The central bank's recent financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and the creation of structural monetary policy tools, are expected to continue to ensure stable economic development [3]

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, marking a record low growth rate of 7.1%[4][7] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[8][9] - In contrast, short-term corporate loans increased by 230 billion year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year[9] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 22,894 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, continuing a trend of six consecutive months of year-on-year growth[4][11] - Government bond financing significantly contributed to social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion in May[11][12] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 1,211 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[12] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating strong financial support for the real economy[4][14] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year to stimulate domestic demand[15] - Overall, the financial support for the real economy is anticipated to strengthen, with expectations for new loans and social financing to show significant year-on-year growth in the latter half of 2025[15]