智通财经5月19日电，泰国财长表示，第三季和第四季经济将大幅放缓。 ...

金十数据5月15日讯，汇丰银行在一份报告中说，鉴于最近全球的不确定性，英国经济增长在第一季度 增长0.7%超出预期之后，可能只会走下坡路。在一次性投资的推动下，投资强劲有所帮助，但从可能 的出口前期负荷来看，第二季度贸易可能出现下滑。此外，水电费上涨以及工资税和最低工资上调导致 的企业劳动力成本也将受到冲击。不过，第一季度的经济增长仍然不错，特别是考虑到通胀下降和劳动 力市场仍然有弹性。预计经济增长0.6%的英国央行将把这解读为其"谨慎而渐进"的降息方式的有力支 撑。 英国强劲的经济增长并不能阻挡经济放缓的到来 ...

Point72资产管理公司：我们将会出现经济放缓，美联储也不会立即采取行动。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：尽管经济放缓，但价格仍有上升的预期，增速不会像之前那样快。 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian labor market data shows a faster-than-expected increase in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, impacting the USD/CAD exchange rate [1] - The USD/CAD pair is attempting to maintain its position around 1.3940, supported by progress in US-China trade negotiations held in Switzerland [1] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen described the two-day talks with Chinese officials in Geneva as productive, with expectations for more details to be released [1] Group 2 - Despite ongoing recession concerns, recent data suggests that the US economy is more likely to experience a slowdown rather than a full contraction, with no signs of accelerating inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about potential stagflation, with warnings from President Michael Barr about tariff increases disrupting supply chains [1] - Technical indicators such as MACD and CCI suggest short-term momentum accumulation for the USD/CAD exchange rate, although there may be a risk of a pullback due to the CCI entering the overbought territory [2]

美联储理事库格勒：短期内经济可能会出现放缓。 ...

美联储理事巴尔：关税将导致经济放缓，从而引发更高的失业率，我对此表示同样担忧。 ...

美国高筑关税壁垒正引发多重经济危机。美联储理事24日警告称，美国总统特朗普引发的贸易战可能很快会导致失业率上升，不排除采取降息 措施应对。与此同时，物价上涨令美国民众债务压力加剧。在历经数周的虚张声势和不断升级局势后，美国总统特朗普似乎有点"扛不住了"， 他承认，对华征收145%的关税是"不可持续的"。而他的一系列动作，在《纽约时报》看来，则被嘲笑为一次又一次的"胆小鬼眨眼"。一些特 朗普政府官员私下表述称，他们承认未能准确预测中方反应，鉴于中国对美国的出口规模巨大，特朗普似乎原以为中国会是首批"请求（关 税）豁免"的国家之一。 特朗普（资料图） 皇家伦敦资产（Royal London Asset Management）高级经济学家梅勒妮·贝克（Melanie Baker）在研究报告中表示，仍预计美联储将于2025年实 施两次降息，但降息时间不会早于下半年。 她指出："我们预计美联储会等到下半年再开启降息。"届时经济将出现更明确的放缓迹象。当前衰退风险已有所上升，全球及美国国内增长前 景已然恶化。不过，鉴于互征关税的暂停以及美国总统特朗普对市场压力作出回应的迹象，贝克目前仍属于"经济放缓"阵营，而非"经济衰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The possibility of a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points by the Bank of England is being considered due to changing economic conditions since the last meeting in March [1] Economic Context - Global trade disruptions and signs of economic slowdown, particularly the decline in US GDP quarterly data, have shifted focus towards larger rate cuts [1] - The current UK CPI inflation has reached target levels, which supports the argument for a potential rate cut [1] MPC Committee Insights - Analysts expect MPC members Dhingra and Mann to support a 50 basis point cut, indicating a possibility for a larger unexpected cut [1] - However, the majority is predicted to favor a smaller cut of 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.25% [1]

Group 1 - Rick Patel emphasizes the importance of maintaining an active, agile, and diversified investment strategy in the face of market challenges, particularly through defensive allocations to sustain yield buffers, with short-term bonds being an attractive option [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields have shown fluctuations, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising approximately 10 basis points from early April but remaining about 50 basis points lower than the peak in January [1] - The future economic slowdown will largely depend on how U.S. companies respond to tariff pressures, either by compressing profits to absorb costs or passing on price increases [1] Group 2 - The labor market in the U.S. is expected to see job growth primarily in healthcare and government sectors, but there are signs of declining temporary employment in healthcare and challenges in the government sector that may pressure employment data [2] - Given expectations of structural growth and inflation easing, the current federal funds rate of 4.25% appears too high, with the Federal Reserve showing reluctance to cut rates without specific catalysts [2] Group 3 - In a downside risk scenario, if a recession leads to significant unemployment, the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market anticipates, potentially lowering the federal funds rate below 2% [3] - The current market prices do not reflect the potential for a severe economic downturn, which could significantly impact small businesses facing high borrowing costs [3]