按照欧盟的说法，他们会这样做是因为别无选择，因为某个"不再遵守任何规则的合作伙伴"（显然是美 国）的日益孤立，欧洲只能保护自身利益，通过各种手段来应对中国低价商品的冲击，以期建立一个真 正运转良好的内部市场，并恢复与美方的平衡。目前，欧盟并没有证实这些消息。 保护主义解决不了欧盟的问题，因为他们保护的是落后，最后也只能失去未来。如果欧盟至今看不清这 一点，那他们将只能以更快的速度，持续衰落下去。 声明：个人原创，仅供参考 不过如果这些政策是真的，那就说明，在特朗普反复施压欧洲，要求他们对中印加征关税后，欧洲再 次"意识形态上脑"，以阵营划分来进行了决策，试图安抚美国，顺便保护自身市场。 但问题是，连欧盟自己都承认，这些措施并不能彻底解决问题，因为贸易保护主义终究难解产业困境。 而事实也早已摆在眼前，如果欧盟作为全球第三大经济体，仍一味随着美国的指挥而起舞，最终也只会 损害自身利益。 当地时间26日，多家外媒报道称，有欧盟高级官员透露，未来几周内，欧盟计划对原产于中国的钢铁及 相关产品加征高额关税，预计税率会在25%-50%之间。 另外值得注意的是，还有官员透露，未来数周内，欧盟将启动针对中国商品的20多项反倾 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between Canada and China, primarily triggered by Canada's steel tariff quota policy introduced by Prime Minister Carney in June 2025, which imposes a 50% additional tax on steel products exceeding a 2.6 million ton import quota from non-free trade agreement partners [1][4][8] - China's swift response included filing a lawsuit with the WTO on August 15, 2025, accusing Canada of violating non-discrimination principles and market access obligations [4][6] - The article highlights the broader implications of Canada's trade protectionism, which has led to significant economic repercussions, including job losses and a decline in agricultural exports [20][21] Trade War Dynamics - Canada's additional 25% tariff on products containing Chinese steel is seen as a direct attack on China's steel industry, prompting a strong reaction from China [4][6] - The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, which were raised to 50% in March 2025, have already reduced Canadian steel exports to the U.S., creating a challenging environment for Canada [6][8] - The article emphasizes that Canada's strategy of targeting China has backfired, placing it in a difficult position between U.S. and Chinese tariffs [8] Agricultural Sector Impact - Prior to the steel dispute, China had already taken action against Canadian agricultural products, specifically imposing a 75.8% deposit on Canadian canola due to dumping practices [10][12] - The increase in Canadian canola exports to China from 2.4376 million tons in 2021 to 5.0502 million tons in 2023, while maintaining lower prices than the international market, raised concerns about market distortion [12][14] - The measures taken by China are framed as necessary to protect its agricultural sector and counteract Canadian trade protectionism [14][16] Economic Consequences - The article outlines the severe economic consequences for Canada, including a loss of 40,800 manufacturing jobs in July 2025 and an estimated annual loss exceeding 1.5 billion Canadian dollars in canola exports [20][21] - The unemployment rate in Canada has reached an eight-month high, indicating the broader economic strain caused by the trade disputes [21] - The article suggests that Canada could mitigate these issues by diversifying its markets and engaging in cooperative initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative [23] Legal and Multilateral Trade Considerations - China's legal actions are framed as a defense of its rights and a commitment to multilateral trade rules, with support from various international economic entities [25][27] - The article notes that China's adherence to international rules during the anti-dumping investigation showcases its commitment to procedural justice and enhances its standing within the WTO [25][27] - The ongoing trade disputes serve as a warning to global trade participants about the risks of unilateral actions in an interconnected economy [27]

Core Viewpoint - The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries in China is crucial for building a modern industrial system and achieving high-quality development, driven by technological innovation and new technology applications [1][2]. Group 1: Transition from Catch-up to Leading Upgrade - The focus of traditional industry development has shifted from "catch-up" to "leading" upgrade, with many products now leading in global exports and some sectors achieving advanced technological levels [2]. - For instance, the steel industry accounts for over 50% of global crude steel production and 60% of global steel industry patent applications, indicating significant advancements [2]. Group 2: Shift from Local Optimization to Systematic Reconstruction - Traditional industry upgrades have evolved from localized improvements to systematic reconstruction, leveraging breakthroughs in technologies like 5G and artificial intelligence [3]. - The textile industry exemplifies this shift, moving from automation of single production processes to a comprehensive digital reconstruction of the entire production chain [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Original Innovation Capability - There is a need to boost original innovation capabilities in traditional industries, which currently face challenges such as low R&D investment intensity and insufficient foundational research [4]. - Industries like pharmaceuticals and aerospace have R&D investment intensities above 2%, while traditional sectors like food manufacturing and textiles are around 1% [4]. Group 4: Enhancing Fusion Innovation Capability - The integration of new technologies with traditional manufacturing is essential for systematic transformation, yet communication and collaboration between traditional industries and emerging technology providers remain inadequate [5][6]. - Developing service-oriented manufacturing and fostering a fusion innovation ecosystem are critical to overcoming these challenges [6].

Group 1 - The Chinese government has completed the ultra-low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity, indicating a significant step towards green transformation in the steel industry [9] - In the first half of the year, energy-saving and environmental protection investments accounted for 28.9% of the total investments in key steel enterprises, with total energy consumption decreasing by 1.5% year-on-year [9] - The number of electric vehicle charging facilities in China has exceeded 16 million, reflecting ongoing efforts to improve charging networks and service quality [10] Group 2 - The construction of major strategic platforms in Nansha, Guangzhou, has achieved phased results over the past three years, indicating progress in regional development [11] - The area for autumn grain in China has slightly increased compared to last year, with the growth trend being generally normal, which is crucial as autumn grain accounts for three-quarters of the annual grain production [12] Group 3 - The cargo throughput of ports along the Yangtze River exceeded 2.34 billion tons in the first seven months of the year, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, indicating steady growth in transportation production [15]

Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The seminar emphasized the need for China to address overcapacity and weak consumption by transforming the People's Bank of China into a primary driver of demand creation through targeted monetary issuance to the central government [2] - The central government should allocate funds to local governments to enhance public goods such as education and healthcare, thereby stimulating domestic demand and driving private sector growth [2] - The use of "Panda bonds" for issuing cross-border RMB to friendly nations is suggested to create external demand for Chinese products and services, allowing the central bank to maintain control over RMB issuance [2] Group 2: Green and Sustainable Development - The vice president of Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange highlighted the importance of coordinating industrial structure adjustments, clean energy transitions, and green lifestyles in cities [3] - The establishment of carbon management service centers is proposed to assist cities in achieving green and low-carbon transformations in the steel industry [3] Group 3: Talent Development and Urban Economy - The seminar discussed the need for cities to leverage resources from top companies and universities to support both hard and soft economic development [4] - A focus on the uneven distribution of talent and the need for targeted policies to address talent shortages in emerging fields like AI and biomedicine was emphasized [4] - The integration of AI technology to collect consumer data for better demand forecasting was suggested to prevent overcapacity and inefficiencies [4] Group 4: Private Sector and Governance - The importance of a clear and transparent relationship between government and private enterprises was underscored as essential for fostering the vitality and innovation of the private economy [5]

Core Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is set to officially commence construction on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan and an installed capacity of 70-81 million kilowatts, equivalent to three Three Gorges power stations [1] - This project is a key component of China's "West-to-East Power Transmission" strategy and presents a historic opportunity for the steel industry, creating a demand for tens of millions of tons and driving technological upgrades [1] Steel Demand Overview - The steel demand for the Yarlung project will cover the entire construction cycle, involving civil engineering, equipment, and transmission, with an estimated total demand for special steel reaching 4-6 million tons, accounting for 1.2% of the national crude steel output in 2024 [1][2] - This demand significantly exceeds the Three Gorges project, which required 590,000 tons of steel, driven by three main factors: the project's scale, extreme environmental requirements, and the expansion of supporting infrastructure [2] Special Steel Characteristics - High-end special steel will be the primary focus for the Yarlung project, with demand characterized by "specialization, high strength, and long lifespan" [3] - Estimated steel usage includes: 60-70% for main structure (2.4-4.2 million tons), 15-20% for underground works (600,000-1.2 million tons), 10-15% for electromechanical equipment (400,000-900,000 tons), 5-10% for construction aids (200,000-600,000 tons), and 5% for other special-purpose steel (200,000-300,000 tons) [3] - Key types of steel include high-strength rebar, special medium-thick plates for hydropower, non-oriented silicon steel sheets, weather-resistant angle steel, and special stainless steel, all designed to withstand extreme conditions [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has postponed the implementation date of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 7, allowing more time for technical preparations by U.S. Customs and Border Protection [1] - The new tariffs will range from 15% to 41% on goods from 69 trade partners, with a 10% import tax on all other countries not on the list [1] - Recent agreements have been reached with several countries, including Japan and South Korea, but many lack formal documentation, raising concerns about the credibility of these agreements [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S.-Japan trade agreement includes a significant investment clause, with Japan committing to a $550 billion investment and loan plan, which is over 10% of Japan's GDP [5] - Japan's automotive industry, which employs over 5 million people, is heavily impacted by these trade negotiations, as automotive exports to the U.S. account for over one-third of Japan's total exports [6] - The agreement also includes Japan's commitment to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft and increase defense spending with the U.S. [7] Group 3 - The U.S.-Korea agreement will impose a uniform 15% import tariff on Korean goods while exempting U.S. exports to Korea from tariffs [13] - The deal includes a $350 billion investment commitment from Korea for U.S.-led projects and a promise to purchase $100 billion worth of U.S. liquefied natural gas [15] - Similar to the U.S.-Japan agreement, the U.S.-Korea deal does not address tariffs on key industrial products like steel and aluminum, leaving the Korean steel industry in a precarious position [14] Group 4 - Taiwan is seen as a "loser" in the tariff adjustments, facing a 20% tariff on its exports to the U.S., which is higher than the rates for Japan and Korea [17] - The EU and U.S. reached a tariff agreement that includes a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods, while maintaining a 50% tariff on steel exports [19] - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over three years and investing $600 billion in the U.S. [20] Group 5 - Southeast Asian countries are increasingly reliant on the U.S. market, with Vietnam being the first to reach a tariff agreement, which includes a 20% tariff on most goods [26][27] - Indonesia has agreed to a 19% tariff on its exports to the U.S. while committing to purchase $15 billion in U.S. energy products [29] - The U.S. is applying pressure on Southeast Asian nations, which are seen as critical in the trade dynamics with China [32][33] Group 6 - The U.S. is experiencing a rise in its overall tariff levels, with the average tariff rate exceeding 16%, the highest since the 1930s [40] - Despite concerns about the economic impact of high tariffs, recent economic data shows strong GDP growth and resilient consumer spending in the U.S. [48][49] - Analysts suggest that the apparent economic strength may be influenced by companies stockpiling goods to avoid tariffs, leading to a temporary boost in economic indicators [50]

Group 1 - The trade agreement between the US and Japan was reached after eight rounds of negotiations, with significant implications for both economies [1][2] - The agreement includes a reduction of tariffs on Japanese products exported to the US from 25% to 15%, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US, with the US retaining 90% of the profits [2][4] - Japan will open its market to US products, including automobiles, rice, and other agricultural goods, which indicates a major concession from Japan [2][4] Group 2 - In the short term, the agreement is seen as a relief for Japan, particularly for its automotive industry, which exports 1.37 million vehicles to the US, accounting for 34% of Japan's total exports to the US [4] - Following the announcement, the Nikkei 225 index surged by over 800 points, closing up 1,396.40 points or 3.51%, indicating increased market confidence [4] - However, the long-term implications suggest that Japan's concessions may lead to significant fiscal pressure and potential hollowing out of domestic industries as companies shift operations to the US [4][5] Group 3 - The trade agreement may alter the competitive landscape for China, as Japan's increased imports of US agricultural products could reduce its imports from other countries, including China [7] - Japanese companies may invest more in the US to avoid tariffs, potentially decreasing their investments in China, which could impact China's related industries [7] - The strengthened supply chain cooperation between Japan and the US in sectors like semiconductors and steel may marginalize Chinese industries, leading to challenges in stability and upgrading of China's industrial chain [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors, with geopolitical risks, trade policies, and economic data all playing significant roles. Different commodities show various trends due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic environments [2][3]. - For most commodities, short - term price movements are characterized by oscillations, affected by both positive and negative factors. Some commodities may experience short - term price increases or decreases based on specific events and data [4][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Overseas: The US Senate passed the "Big Beautiful Act" with a narrow margin, and it awaits final approval in the House. Trump may reach a trade agreement with India but is skeptical about Japan, hinting at a potential increase in tariffs on Japanese imports to 30% - 35% from 24%. The US job openings in May reached a new high since November last year, and Powell suggested a "wait - and - see" approach [2]. - Domestic: President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, emphasizing the promotion of a unified market and the development of the marine economy. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June rebounded to 50.4, returning to the expansion range. Stocks and bonds both rose, but the A - share market lacked a clear main line [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.28% to $3349.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.20% to $36.25 per ounce. Trade concerns, potential Fed rate cuts, and Middle - East geopolitical risks drove safe - haven funds into the precious metals market. However, the short - term sustainability of the price rebound is uncertain [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper showed an upward trend. The Shanghai copper main contract broke through, and the London copper price approached the $10,000 mark. The US manufacturing was in a downturn with inflation expectations rising. Globally, the shortage of concentrates and low inventory levels, along with expanding application areas, are expected to drive copper prices into a short - term oscillatory upward trend [6][7]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum showed a positive trend. The weakening US dollar index and low warehouse receipts supported the price. However, the market should also pay attention to the impact of the Senate's passage of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill and the upcoming July 9 trade tariff suspension deadline [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina futures showed a preference for oscillatory movement. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to decline, and the spot market had limited supply increments. The short - term price is expected to maintain a preference for oscillatory movement [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc declined slightly. Overseas refineries resumed production, and the supply disturbance weakened. Although downstream buying improved, the short - term fundamentals remained weak, and the price returned to a weakening trend [12][13]. Lead - The price of lead declined slightly. The supply of primary and recycled lead refineries is expected to recover in July, while consumption has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [14][15]. Tin - The price of tin showed a compensatory movement. The fundamentals were not significantly changed, with low trading volume. The supply and demand were both weak, and the high - price tin faced pressure [16]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon faced resistance in its rebound. It was in the off - season with weakening demand. The supply side was generally weak, and the demand side in the photovoltaic industry was also lackluster. The short - term price is expected to enter a weak adjustment phase [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate declined. The market sentiment cooled down, and the downstream replenishment ended. Although the cathode production in July may exceed expectations, the supply also increased, and high inventory may drag down the price [19][20]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The US economic data was mixed, and the cost side showed signs of loosening. The short - term fundamentals had no improvement, and the price oscillated [21][22]. Crude Oil - The price of crude oil oscillated. Geopolitical risks and industry logic were intertwined. Although the geopolitical heat decreased, the conflict was not completely over, and the supply side maintained a high - growth expectation [23]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures price rebounded slightly. The market was affected by the news of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply side's production was stable at a low level, and the demand side was weak due to high - temperature weather. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [24][25]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price oscillated and adjusted. The port inventory decreased slightly, but the supply pressure remained due to high overseas shipments. The demand for iron ore had some resilience, but the production of molten iron was expected to decline. The short - term price is expected to oscillate under pressure [26]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. The US soybean crushing volume in May was 6.11 million tons, and the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks was normal. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather changes, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - US trade progress [27][28]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price may oscillate. The production of Malaysian palm oil in June slowed down, and the export demand in Indonesia increased in May. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump asserts that his tariff policy will ensure the steel industry remains "Made in America" permanently, indicating a shift towards domestic manufacturing across various states [1] Group 1 - The tariff policy is aimed at revitalizing the steel industry in the U.S. [1] - The statement highlights a geographical focus on states such as Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Minnesota, and Indiana, suggesting a broad impact on American manufacturing [1] - The phrase "Made in America" is emphasized as a key component of the administration's economic strategy [1]