文 | 古书奇谭 编辑 | 古书奇谭 2024年中美GDP呈现诡异反差，汇率换算下中国18.74万亿美元对上美国29.18万亿美元，看似差距拉大，但购买力平价（PPP）核算中，中国38.19万亿国 际元较美国高出31%，达1.31倍。 鲜为人知的是，2016年中国PPPGDP就以19.65万亿国际元反超美国，为何两种算法差这么多？8年从反超到拉开31%差距，未来真能如马斯克所言达美国 两到三倍？ 汇率GDP的失真陷阱 全球默认用汇率换算的美元GDP衡量经济规模，可这种方式有个致命缺陷，完全忽略各国物价差异，这也是中国经济长期被低估的关键。 生活里的例子最直观，美国纽约、洛杉矶的男性理发，一次要30-60美元，而中国北京、上海、深圳的同档次服务，也就30-60元人民币。 同样的服务体验，按实际能买到的东西算，人民币和美元这会儿几乎是1:1，但换算成美元GDP时，中国理发行业创造的价值就硬生生变成了美国的七分 之一。 这种失真在历史上更明显，1987年是中美GDP差距的峰值，按汇率算，中国0.273万亿美元的GDP只相当于美国4.86万亿美元的1/18。 而人均GDP更是只有美国的1/80，这种悬殊让当时不少人都 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the progress and achievements of Panzhihua city in the context of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," showcasing its commitment to economic development and modernization [1][3][4]. Economic Growth - Panzhihua's GDP is projected to rise from 1133.95 billion to 1395.24 billion from 2021 to 2024, with the GDP surpassing 1000 billion for the first time in the third quarter of this year, reaching 1058.57 billion [3][4]. - The city has diversified its economy, transitioning from a steel-centric industry to a more varied industrial base, including tourism and agriculture [3][4]. Strategic Development - The city's development strategy has evolved from "One Two Three Five" to "One Three Three Three," focusing on industrial strength and modern urban development [4][6]. - The "Two Trials Leading, Five Cities Advancing, Common Prosperity and Beauty" framework aims to translate the concept of common prosperity into practical initiatives [6][7]. Industrial Transformation - The vanadium-titanium industry has become a key driver of growth, with its output value reaching 521 billion in 2023, surpassing the steel industry's output for the first time [9][12]. - The city is recognized for its advancements in the health and wellness sector, with the health industry contributing 171.19 billion to the GDP, accounting for 13.1% [11][12]. Project Development - Panzhihua has successfully attracted significant investment, with multiple projects in the vanadium-titanium sector and renewable energy, including a 20 billion investment in a new photovoltaic project [14][15]. - The city is actively pursuing new industries such as hydrogen energy and energy storage, with several pioneering projects underway [12][14].

Group 1: Economic Development and Reform - Shandong emphasizes the need to focus on key areas and enhance efforts to ensure the effective implementation of annual reform tasks, aiming to stimulate economic development and create new advantages for high-quality growth [1][2] - The province aims to enhance the vitality of business entities, improve resource allocation efficiency, and optimize the economic development environment [1][2] Group 2: Steel Industry Upgrade - Shandong is focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green development in the steel industry, aiming to create a competitive advanced steel industry base [3] - The province has 17 steel smelting enterprises with a crude steel capacity of approximately 80 million tons, ranking third in the country [3] Group 3: International Cooperation - The "2025 Shandong and Multinational Companies Industry Ecosystem Cooperation Partners Dialogue" gathered over 60 foreign business associations and multinational companies, highlighting Shandong's commitment to deepening cooperation with global firms [4] - 25 key cooperation projects were signed, including 20 trade projects with a total import-export value of approximately $58.4 billion and 5 investment projects totaling about $2.9 billion [4] Group 4: Robotics Industry Development - Shandong's "Robotics Industry Technology Innovation Action Plan (2026-2028)" aims to establish 100 benchmark application scenarios for robotics by 2028, enhancing the province's position in the robotics technology sector [5] - The plan includes four key tasks focused on core technology, major product innovation, application expansion, and quality improvement in the robotics industry [5] Group 5: Cruise Industry Development - Qingdao has released a development plan for the cruise industry (2025-2035), aiming to establish itself as a leading cruise tourism destination in Northeast Asia [6] - The plan sets targets for receiving over 50 cruise ships and more than 200,000 inbound and outbound tourists by 2028, with further growth expected by 2035 [6][7]

Economic News - China's National Energy Administration issued 229 million green certificates in September, involving 306,500 renewable energy projects, with 158 million being tradable, accounting for 68.86% [4] - The price of storage chips has accelerated in the fourth quarter due to a shift in production capacity towards high-end chips for AI and data centers, leading to a significant reduction in traditional storage chip supply [6] - The global smartphone market is expected to reach a shipment volume of 320.1 million units in Q3 2025, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth, indicating signs of recovery after a weak first half [7] Company Insights - Sinopec Easy Joy and Taobao Flash Purchase announced a strategic partnership, with plans to have over 5,000 stores on the Taobao platform by the end of the year [5] - Pop Mart opened its first store in the Middle East at Hamad International Airport in Qatar, marking its first 24/7 operational store globally [5] - Youyan New Materials reported Q3 revenue of 2.674 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.43%, and a net profit of 115 million yuan, up 56.31% [5] - Tianli Lithium Energy's Q3 revenue was 569 million yuan, a 33.25% year-on-year increase, but it reported a net loss of 28.85 million yuan, an increase of 67.68% in losses [5] - China Telecom showcased its "Beidou Voice Message" service, becoming the first operator to implement this technology [5] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage industry is expected to benefit from the expansion of overall consumption, with new retail channels like instant retail and membership supermarkets emerging as significant opportunities [8][9] - The non-ferrous metals industry is poised for improvement in profitability and valuation levels due to a favorable supply-demand structure, driven by high-quality green development paths [11] - The production of ten non-ferrous metals in China is projected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.5% from 2025 to 2026, indicating a shift towards stable, high-quality growth [13] - The demand for metals is expected to expand significantly due to the growth of new energy industries and structural changes in demand, particularly for copper, lithium, and other metals [15][16]

Core Points - The EU plans to impose high tariffs on steel and related products originating from China, with rates expected to be between 25% and 50% [1] - The EU will initiate over 20 anti-dumping investigations against Chinese goods, citing "unfair competition" and the need for punitive measures to address "overcapacity" issues [1][2] - The EU's actions are seen as a response to the isolation of a "partner" (implicitly the US), aiming to protect its own market and restore balance with the US [2][3] Group 1 - The EU's proposed tariffs are a reaction to perceived unfair competition from China, indicating a shift towards protectionist measures [1][2] - The EU acknowledges that these protective measures may not fully resolve underlying issues, suggesting a recognition of the limitations of trade protectionism [5] - The EU's alignment with US pressures may ultimately harm its own interests, as it risks protecting outdated industries rather than fostering future growth [5]

Core Points - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between Canada and China, primarily triggered by Canada's steel tariff quota policy introduced by Prime Minister Carney in June 2025, which imposes a 50% additional tax on steel products exceeding a 2.6 million ton import quota from non-free trade agreement partners [1][4][8] - China's swift response included filing a lawsuit with the WTO on August 15, 2025, accusing Canada of violating non-discrimination principles and market access obligations [4][6] - The article highlights the broader implications of Canada's trade protectionism, which has led to significant economic repercussions, including job losses and a decline in agricultural exports [20][21] Trade War Dynamics - Canada's additional 25% tariff on products containing Chinese steel is seen as a direct attack on China's steel industry, prompting a strong reaction from China [4][6] - The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, which were raised to 50% in March 2025, have already reduced Canadian steel exports to the U.S., creating a challenging environment for Canada [6][8] - The article emphasizes that Canada's strategy of targeting China has backfired, placing it in a difficult position between U.S. and Chinese tariffs [8] Agricultural Sector Impact - Prior to the steel dispute, China had already taken action against Canadian agricultural products, specifically imposing a 75.8% deposit on Canadian canola due to dumping practices [10][12] - The increase in Canadian canola exports to China from 2.4376 million tons in 2021 to 5.0502 million tons in 2023, while maintaining lower prices than the international market, raised concerns about market distortion [12][14] - The measures taken by China are framed as necessary to protect its agricultural sector and counteract Canadian trade protectionism [14][16] Economic Consequences - The article outlines the severe economic consequences for Canada, including a loss of 40,800 manufacturing jobs in July 2025 and an estimated annual loss exceeding 1.5 billion Canadian dollars in canola exports [20][21] - The unemployment rate in Canada has reached an eight-month high, indicating the broader economic strain caused by the trade disputes [21] - The article suggests that Canada could mitigate these issues by diversifying its markets and engaging in cooperative initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative [23] Legal and Multilateral Trade Considerations - China's legal actions are framed as a defense of its rights and a commitment to multilateral trade rules, with support from various international economic entities [25][27] - The article notes that China's adherence to international rules during the anti-dumping investigation showcases its commitment to procedural justice and enhances its standing within the WTO [25][27] - The ongoing trade disputes serve as a warning to global trade participants about the risks of unilateral actions in an interconnected economy [27]

Core Viewpoint - The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries in China is crucial for building a modern industrial system and achieving high-quality development, driven by technological innovation and new technology applications [1][2]. Group 1: Transition from Catch-up to Leading Upgrade - The focus of traditional industry development has shifted from "catch-up" to "leading" upgrade, with many products now leading in global exports and some sectors achieving advanced technological levels [2]. - For instance, the steel industry accounts for over 50% of global crude steel production and 60% of global steel industry patent applications, indicating significant advancements [2]. Group 2: Shift from Local Optimization to Systematic Reconstruction - Traditional industry upgrades have evolved from localized improvements to systematic reconstruction, leveraging breakthroughs in technologies like 5G and artificial intelligence [3]. - The textile industry exemplifies this shift, moving from automation of single production processes to a comprehensive digital reconstruction of the entire production chain [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Original Innovation Capability - There is a need to boost original innovation capabilities in traditional industries, which currently face challenges such as low R&D investment intensity and insufficient foundational research [4]. - Industries like pharmaceuticals and aerospace have R&D investment intensities above 2%, while traditional sectors like food manufacturing and textiles are around 1% [4]. Group 4: Enhancing Fusion Innovation Capability - The integration of new technologies with traditional manufacturing is essential for systematic transformation, yet communication and collaboration between traditional industries and emerging technology providers remain inadequate [5][6]. - Developing service-oriented manufacturing and fostering a fusion innovation ecosystem are critical to overcoming these challenges [6].

Group 1 - The Chinese government has completed the ultra-low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity, indicating a significant step towards green transformation in the steel industry [9] - In the first half of the year, energy-saving and environmental protection investments accounted for 28.9% of the total investments in key steel enterprises, with total energy consumption decreasing by 1.5% year-on-year [9] - The number of electric vehicle charging facilities in China has exceeded 16 million, reflecting ongoing efforts to improve charging networks and service quality [10] Group 2 - The construction of major strategic platforms in Nansha, Guangzhou, has achieved phased results over the past three years, indicating progress in regional development [11] - The area for autumn grain in China has slightly increased compared to last year, with the growth trend being generally normal, which is crucial as autumn grain accounts for three-quarters of the annual grain production [12] Group 3 - The cargo throughput of ports along the Yangtze River exceeded 2.34 billion tons in the first seven months of the year, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, indicating steady growth in transportation production [15]

Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The seminar emphasized the need for China to address overcapacity and weak consumption by transforming the People's Bank of China into a primary driver of demand creation through targeted monetary issuance to the central government [2] - The central government should allocate funds to local governments to enhance public goods such as education and healthcare, thereby stimulating domestic demand and driving private sector growth [2] - The use of "Panda bonds" for issuing cross-border RMB to friendly nations is suggested to create external demand for Chinese products and services, allowing the central bank to maintain control over RMB issuance [2] Group 2: Green and Sustainable Development - The vice president of Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange highlighted the importance of coordinating industrial structure adjustments, clean energy transitions, and green lifestyles in cities [3] - The establishment of carbon management service centers is proposed to assist cities in achieving green and low-carbon transformations in the steel industry [3] Group 3: Talent Development and Urban Economy - The seminar discussed the need for cities to leverage resources from top companies and universities to support both hard and soft economic development [4] - A focus on the uneven distribution of talent and the need for targeted policies to address talent shortages in emerging fields like AI and biomedicine was emphasized [4] - The integration of AI technology to collect consumer data for better demand forecasting was suggested to prevent overcapacity and inefficiencies [4] Group 4: Private Sector and Governance - The importance of a clear and transparent relationship between government and private enterprises was underscored as essential for fostering the vitality and innovation of the private economy [5]

Core Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is set to officially commence construction on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan and an installed capacity of 70-81 million kilowatts, equivalent to three Three Gorges power stations [1] - This project is a key component of China's "West-to-East Power Transmission" strategy and presents a historic opportunity for the steel industry, creating a demand for tens of millions of tons and driving technological upgrades [1] Steel Demand Overview - The steel demand for the Yarlung project will cover the entire construction cycle, involving civil engineering, equipment, and transmission, with an estimated total demand for special steel reaching 4-6 million tons, accounting for 1.2% of the national crude steel output in 2024 [1][2] - This demand significantly exceeds the Three Gorges project, which required 590,000 tons of steel, driven by three main factors: the project's scale, extreme environmental requirements, and the expansion of supporting infrastructure [2] Special Steel Characteristics - High-end special steel will be the primary focus for the Yarlung project, with demand characterized by "specialization, high strength, and long lifespan" [3] - Estimated steel usage includes: 60-70% for main structure (2.4-4.2 million tons), 15-20% for underground works (600,000-1.2 million tons), 10-15% for electromechanical equipment (400,000-900,000 tons), 5-10% for construction aids (200,000-600,000 tons), and 5% for other special-purpose steel (200,000-300,000 tons) [3] - Key types of steel include high-strength rebar, special medium-thick plates for hydropower, non-oriented silicon steel sheets, weather-resistant angle steel, and special stainless steel, all designed to withstand extreme conditions [3]