Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly under Chairman Powell, is under scrutiny due to political pressures, but legal and institutional frameworks provide significant protection against arbitrary dismissal [1][2]. Legal Protections for Powell - According to Morgan Stanley economist Michael Feroli, the Federal Reserve Board members can only be removed for "just cause," historically interpreted as misconduct rather than policy disagreements [2]. - The 1935 Supreme Court case Humphrey's Executor v. United States established that the President cannot dismiss independent regulatory agency heads due to political differences, which has historically protected the Federal Reserve from direct political interference [2]. - The recent Supreme Court ruling in Trump v. Wilcox further solidified the Federal Reserve's unique status, stating it is a "structurally unique quasi-private entity," thus providing additional legal safeguards for its members against arbitrary dismissal [2]. Challenges to Dismissal - Even if President Trump attempts to dismiss Powell citing "just cause," such as cost overruns on the Fed's headquarters renovation, historical precedents make it difficult to define what constitutes "just cause," potentially leading to lengthy legal battles [3]. - If Trump were to proceed with the dismissal, Powell could file a lawsuit to block the action, which might ultimately reach the Supreme Court [3]. - Analysts suggest that the Supreme Court may allow lower court injunctions to remain in effect during the case, potentially allowing Powell to complete his term [3]. Institutional Design Limits Presidential Influence - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 members, which disperses decision-making power and makes it challenging for any single change in personnel to significantly alter policy direction [3]. - The seven Board members are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate for 14-year terms, while the Chair and Vice Chair serve 4-year terms, renewable. Powell's term as a Board member lasts until January 2028, and as Chair until May 2026 [3][4]. Continuity in Monetary Policy - Even if Powell were to lose his position as Chair, he could remain on the Board until January 2028 and potentially be elected as Chair of the FOMC, maintaining a significant role in monetary policy formulation [5]. - The current term arrangements for Board members limit the President's ability to influence the composition of the Federal Reserve through normal appointments [6]. Risks of Eroding Independence - Economists generally agree that separating monetary policy from political cycles is beneficial, as politically motivated decisions can lead to inappropriate economic stimulation [7]. - Historical evidence suggests that central banks with greater political independence tend to achieve lower and more stable inflation rates [7]. - Any weakening of the Federal Reserve's independence could increase inflation risks, especially given current pressures from tariffs and rising inflation expectations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political maneuvering surrounding the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the tension between monetary policy independence and political loyalty to Trump [2][3][5]. Group 1: Powell's Situation - Powell faces a significant political crisis, with the probability of his dismissal rising from 15% to 38% in just two weeks, marking the most severe political challenge for a sitting Fed chair in a century [3]. - The Trump administration has initiated the process to select a new Fed chair, despite Powell's term not ending until May 2026, indicating a potential power transition [5]. Group 2: Potential Successors - Kevin Hassett, the White House Chief Economic Advisor, is currently the frontrunner for the Fed chair position, benefiting from a close relationship with Trump and shared economic views [7]. - Hassett's lack of practical monetary policy experience and low industry support (7% in a Bank of America survey) raise concerns about his suitability for the role [9]. - Other candidates include current Treasury Secretary Becerra (26% support), former Fed Governor Warsh (17% support), and current Fed Governor Waller (14% support), each with their own strengths and weaknesses [11][13]. Group 3: Trump's Expectations - Trump demands that the new Fed chair must comply with his directive to lower interest rates and align with his "MAGA economic agenda," emphasizing the need for loyalty over independence [15]. - The selection process may accelerate due to Trump's aversion to policy delays, potentially leading to a quicker transition than anticipated [15]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The new Fed chair will face significant challenges, including rising inflation due to tariffs, weakening economic momentum, and concerns over the Fed's independence from political influence [17][19]. - The historical precedent of political interference in the Fed's operations raises alarms about the potential consequences of appointing a politically loyal chair [19][21]. Group 5: Implications for Global Finance - The outcome of this leadership transition could have profound implications for the Fed's policy independence and the global financial order, with fears that a politically aligned chair could lead to a weakening of the dollar and accelerate de-dollarization efforts [22]. - Key upcoming dates, such as the Fed's interest rate meeting on July 29 and potential new tariffs on August 1, are critical for market participants to monitor [23].

周五（7月18日）亚盘时段，国际白银价格窄幅震荡，最新白银价格交投于38.17美元，涨幅0.12%，特 朗普政府的关税政策是当前市场关注的焦点，关税政策的不确定性为白银的避险功能提供了支撑。 国际银价在从周低点37.50美元反弹后稳定在37.85美元上方，但白银行情仍偏向上行。动量方面，相对 强弱指标（RSI）偏向向上，表明多头掌控局面。 若银价攀升至38.00美元上方，则将为进一步上行扫清道路。下一个阻力位将是38.50美元，随后是今年 至今高点39.12美元，接着是39.50美元和40.00美元。 反之，如果白银价格跌破37.00美元，空头可能会将银价推向20日移动均线36.78美元，随后测试36.00美 元。 日本正与美国商务部长就避免25%关税进行紧急谈判，若8月1日前无法达成协议，关税将正式生效。路 透社报道显示，6月进口价格环比仅上涨0.1%，低于预期的0.3%，但来自中国、日本和欧盟的进口价格 涨势强劲，表明外国出口商并未完全吸收关税成本。富国银行高级经济学家Sarah House指出，进口价 格的上涨显示出关税对物价的直接影响，这可能进一步推高通胀预期。 尽管短期内银价受到美元和收益率上涨的压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by market reactions to U.S. President Trump's comments regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, alongside economic indicators such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the overall monetary policy outlook [1][2][4][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced dramatic volatility, initially dropping to $3319.58 per ounce due to a strong dollar, before surging over $50 to reach a three-week high of $3377.17 following news of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell [1][2]. - Trump's subsequent denial of the dismissal plan led to a narrowing of gold's gains, closing at $3347.38, up 0.68% [2]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.25% to 98.34, influenced by Trump's comments, which alleviated concerns over the dollar's credibility [1]. - The U.S. bond market reacted similarly, with the 30-year Treasury yield peaking at 5.08% before settling at 5.014%, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.466% [1]. - The June PPI data showed no month-over-month increase, contrasting with a 0.3% rise in May, indicating subdued inflationary pressures that support gold prices [4]. - Year-over-year, the PPI increased by 2.3%, suggesting ongoing inflation concerns, particularly due to tariffs [4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a critical factor for gold prices, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts influenced by inflation forecasts and economic growth projections [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently oscillating within a key trading range of $3300 to $3360, indicating ongoing market contention [7]. - Short-term movements have seen gold test lower levels before rebounding, suggesting a potential for further volatility as traders await a breakout direction [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the tensions between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates [4][5]. - Trump expresses a desire for significant interest rate cuts, suggesting reductions of 100 to 250 basis points, and criticizes Powell for not supporting lower rates [4][5]. - The article notes that Trump feels misled by Powell regarding the Federal Reserve's actions and threatens to dismiss him if necessary [4]. Group 2 - The article presents various economic indicators, including a CPI annual rate of -0.25% and a rising unemployment rate of +2.3% [5]. - It outlines the historical context of interest rates under different administrations, indicating a trend of dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's policies [5]. - The article emphasizes Trump's stance that as long as interest rates are not lowered, he will remain unhappy with the Federal Reserve's performance [5].

文︱陆弃 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的权力宝座，眼下正陷入前所未有的政治风暴。这场风暴既有特朗普政府掀起的政治清算，也掺杂着美国体制性金融焦虑的集中 爆发。从"装修25亿美元超支"到"干预货币政策失职"，美国最高金融机构的掌门人，正站在风口浪尖——不是因为通胀失控，不是因为加息过快，而是因为 一栋大楼的重修预算。 特朗普的表态不再藏着掖着。他直接在军用基地公开宣称鲍威尔"应当辞职"，称其"对这个国家非常不好"，这类措辞从一国总统口中说出，本身就是一次政 治鞭尸。而更具杀伤力的，是白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特随后在全国电视节目上放出的信号：如果调查证据确凿，总统完全有权解雇美联储主 席。这不仅打破了美国联邦储备制度的传统中立性底线，更象征着白宫对"货币政独立"的最后一击。 25亿美元的装修预算，成了压垮鲍威尔的"黄金稻草"。这不是一个随口而出的数字，它背后代表的是华盛顿政治机器对于"合法性"的又一次挑衅。 白宫预 算办公室主任沃特的批评极具煽动性，他用"浮夸"、"浪费"、"贪婪"这样的形容词，将一个本应技术性讨论的预算问题拉入道德审判的场域。在当前美国经 济结构深陷选战冲突、民生焦虑与债务激增的背景下，这种 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The July 31st hearing of the US Federal Appellate Court may set the tone for subsequent tariff frictions. If the court does not support the new tariff policy, more trading partners may announce counter - measures, causing greater chaos in the US financial market. If it supports, the market may be relatively calm. Concerns about stagflation risks and trading partners selling US Treasuries are the biggest risk points in the US financial market [2][10]. - China's "anti - involution" initiative will ease the inertia of low inflation. Since October 2022, China's PPI has declined year - on - year for 33 consecutive months, while CPI has stabilized. The downstream price trend supports the upstream to improve quality and stabilize prices through "anti - involution", promoting the narrowing of the PPI decline [2][15]. - The producer price index for means of production continued to rebound. From July 7th to 12th, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork and the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased week - on - week, while the edible agricultural product price index remained flat week - on - week. The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased, while the prices of LME copper and aluminum decreased. The producer price index for means of production increased 0.60% week - on - week and decreased 8.01% year - on - year in the week of July 4th [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The US Federal Appellate Court hearing on July 31st may determine the direction of subsequent tariff frictions. The US government's tariff policy has a significant impact on the US financial market, especially on US Treasuries and the US dollar exchange rate. Concerns about stagflation and trading partners selling US Treasuries are major risks [10][11]. - Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell exacerbates market concerns about the independence of US monetary policy. However, the uncertainty of US inflation amplified by tariffs will not fundamentally change due to the change of the Fed Chairman [13]. - China's "anti - involution" initiative can help ease the inertia of low inflation. The decline in PPI may narrow, and its rebound amplitude may depend on the stabilization of real estate and commodity export prices [15]. 3.2 High - Frequency Data and Comparison of Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.3 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names. 3.5 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen No specific content is summarized for this part as the text mainly lists the chart names.

Core Viewpoint - The future trend of the US dollar index is likely to be a downward fluctuation, which may lead to a stable or rising trend in the RMB to USD exchange rate, benefiting China's cross-border capital flow and the internationalization of the RMB [2][11]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of the US Dollar Index - Since 1971, the US dollar index has experienced three long cycles of decline followed by rise, with significant percentage changes in each cycle [2][5]. - The first cycle saw a decline from 120.5 to 82.1 (31.9% drop) and a rise to 164.7 (100.6% increase) [2]. - The second cycle had a decline from 164.7 to 78.3 (52.5% drop) and a rise to 120.9 (54.4% increase) [2]. - The third cycle experienced a decline from 120.9 to 71.3 (41.0% drop) and a rise to 114.1 (60.0% increase) [2]. Group 2: Current Dollar Index Trends - From September 2022 to June 2025, the dollar index is projected to decline from 114.1 to 96.9, a decrease of 15.1% [4]. - The end of the previous Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle and the beginning of a rate cut cycle in September 2024 suggest a new long-term downward trend for the dollar index [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of Dollar Index Cycles - The highest and lowest points of the dollar index in the three cycles show a gradual downward trend, indicating a weakening of the US economic advantage relative to other developed countries [5]. - The duration of the cycles has been increasing, with the downward phases lasting around 7-8 years and the upward phases extending significantly [5]. - The relationship between the dollar index and interest rates has changed, with recent trends showing a lower correlation between the two [6]. Group 4: Future Predictions for the Dollar Index - The dollar index is expected to continue a downward trend for an extended period, potentially lasting another 6-7 years [10]. - The lowest point of the current downward cycle may fall below the previous cycle's low of 71.3, but it is unlikely to drop below 80 due to issues in other developed economies [10]. - The correlation between the dollar index and US interest rates may remain low, impacting the RMB to USD exchange rate positively [11].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's strategy to increase short-term bond issuance is significantly undermining the Federal Reserve's independence, effectively shifting monetary policy authority to the Treasury [1][2][16]. Group 1: Short-term Debt Issuance and Inflation - The Treasury's shift towards more short-term debt issuance is expected to stimulate risk asset prices further away from long-term fair value and structurally raise inflation levels [2][3]. - The increase in short-term Treasury issuance is likely to become a structural factor driving inflation, as Treasury bills (with maturities under one year) are more "monetary" compared to long-term bonds [3][6]. - Historical data indicates that changes in the proportion of Treasury bills in total outstanding debt often precede long-term inflation trends, suggesting a causal relationship rather than mere correlation [3][6]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Short-term Bonds - The explosive growth of the repurchase market has amplified the impact of short-term debt, as improved clearing mechanisms and increased liquidity make repurchase transactions resemble money [9]. - The issuance strategy of short-term bonds has distinct effects on market liquidity; a high net bond issuance relative to the fiscal deficit often leads to market troubles, as seen in the 2022 bear market [10]. - Increased issuance of short-term Treasury bonds correlates positively with the growth of Federal Reserve reserves, particularly post-pandemic, while long-term bond issuance tends to have the opposite effect [10]. Group 3: Policy Dilemmas for the Federal Reserve - The combination of irrational asset price growth, high consumer inflation, and substantial short-term debt presents a challenging policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve [14][15]. - In an economy burdened with significant short-term debt, raising interest rates would almost immediately translate into fiscal tightening due to soaring government borrowing costs [15][16]. - Both the Federal Reserve and the Treasury will face immense pressure to ease policies to counteract these effects, ultimately benefiting inflation [16]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The market's accustomed independence of monetary policy will be significantly compromised, especially before the next Federal Reserve chair takes office, who may lean towards a dovish stance [17]. - The transition towards a Treasury-dominated monetary policy will have profound long-term effects, including potential depreciation of the dollar and steeper yield curves, leading to higher long-term financing costs [17][18]. - The likelihood of reintroducing policy tools such as quantitative easing and yield curve control to artificially suppress long-term yields will increase, potentially marking a "victory" for the Treasury [18][19].

鲍威尔的态度成为这场风波的核心悬念。他多次拒绝透露，在明年 5 月四年主席任期届满后，是选择卸任，还是继续留任美联储理事会。从制度层面看，鲍 威尔在技术上完全可以担任理事直至 2028 年 1 月任期结束。这种不确定性迫使政府官员不得不未雨绸缪，为美联储主席继任者制定多套备选方案。而特朗 普的目标十分明确，他迫切希望找到一位能够坚定支持其经济议程的美联储主席，试图将货币政策纳入自己的施政轨道。 特朗普曾在周二自信满满地宣称，自己心中已有 "两三个顶级人选" 可能接替鲍威尔，但却对具体姓名讳莫如深。更具戏剧性的是，据知情人士透露，最近 几周，特朗普的顾问甚至脑洞大开，与他讨论过让贝森特同时担任财政部长和美联储主席的可能性。这一设想如若成真，将彻底打破自 1935 年以来两项职 务分立的传统，在金融界和政界引发强烈震动。不过，白宫官员迅速出面辟谣，坚称相关报道是 "彻头彻尾的假新闻"，财政部发言人也引用贝森特本人的 表态，称其对现职颇为满意。 Juno markets发现当美国总统特朗普将目光聚焦于美联储主席的人选更替时，一场充满火药味的政治与经济博弈在华盛顿悄然上演。特朗普及其顾问团队试 图为美联储寻找新舵手， ...