Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining support for Trump due to rising living costs and economic dissatisfaction among American households, mirroring the previous discontent that led to Biden's downfall [1][9]. Group 1: Support Decline - A recent poll shows Trump's approval of economic policies dropped from 70% to 53%, a decline of 17 percentage points, highlighting growing public dissatisfaction [3]. - Rising prices of essential goods, such as beef increasing by nearly 30%, contribute to the frustration of American families [3]. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised employment data downwards, indicating a weakening job market, which exacerbates the financial strain on households [5]. Group 2: Economic Mismanagement - Trump's initial economic reputation as a savior has deteriorated as inflation continues to rise, affecting household budgets significantly [7][9]. - The implementation of tariffs intended to protect domestic industries led to a 40% increase in imported steel prices, resulting in layoffs and increased consumer costs [12]. - The disconnect between economic policies and the realities faced by citizens is a primary reason for Trump's declining support [7][25]. Group 3: Political Consequences - Internal White House memos indicate that the administration is aware of the potential electoral consequences if living cost issues are not addressed [15][25]. - Trump's attempts to downplay the cost of living issues have backfired, leading to public backlash and further erosion of trust [18]. - The article emphasizes that the fundamental economic problems, such as job quality and inflation, remain unresolved, affecting both Biden and Trump administrations [26][28].

牛弹琴 有朋友询问，怎么看墨西哥最近的小动作？ 但也请放心，中国早已成竹在胸，据此前先例和本次的个案分析，中方至少准备了三大招。 回头我会细说。 必须看到，到目前为止，对墨西哥的种种做法，中国保持了极大的克制。但克制绝不等于是纵容。 有朋友就分析，中国的这种克制，更像是"大国的隐忍"，隐忍不是懦弱，而是积蓄力量；冷静不是无 为，而是等待时机。先礼后兵，更为后续行动保留了充分空间。 但我们必须要说，墨西哥太不争气。 全世界都看到，美国对墨西哥的颐指气使，墨西哥却仍旧亦步亦趋。 对中国等国商品大幅加税，我们也不必否认，这是墨西哥一些人向美国献上的投名状。 坦率地说，我们不能不重视。 这也有一个博弈的过程。 一则是因为中墨双边贸易很重要，二则是墨西哥会起到很坏的示范效应。 国际关系中，小动作往往是大风暴的序幕，我们不可不察。 该措施明确排除了与美国、加拿大、欧盟等签署自贸协定的伙伴，主要冲击中国、韩国、印度等非自贸 伙伴。 此举因其"预先毫无征兆"，被国际社会视为一场"关税突袭"。 墨方的关税政策，随后从立即生效的临时性措施走向通过国会审议的长期性政策。 2025年9月，墨政府向国会提交更为广泛的提税提案，涉及约1 ...

Group 1 - China will impose anti-dumping duties on pork and pork products originating from the EU starting December 17, 2025, to protect domestic industries and curb dumping practices [2] - The EU's pork exports to China are projected to account for 45% of its total exports in 2024, directly impacting over 100,000 jobs in related industries [2] - The EU has shown a clear tendency towards trade protectionism this year, previously imposing high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles under the pretext of "excessive subsidies" [3] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that its anti-dumping measures comply with WTO rules and international practices, advocating for a rational view of trade differences with the EU [3][4] - The European agricultural sector, particularly pork, is highly dependent on stable demand from the Chinese market, making it vulnerable to trade tensions [4] - The European Farmers' Union (COPA-COGECA) plays a crucial role in advocating for policy adjustments in EU-China trade, focusing on market openness and industry collaboration [4] Group 3 - France is taking a leading role in coordinating EU agricultural and trade policies, with strict regulations requiring unanimous agreement from member states for new trade policies towards China [5] - The EU's trade strategy relies heavily on member state collaboration, which complicates the adjustment of trade policies towards China due to varying national interests [5] - The EU's industries face challenges in scale and profit margins if they detach from the Chinese market, highlighting the need for a balanced approach between trade protection and market openness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is increasingly focused on establishing a free trade agreement with the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) after facing challenges from U.S. tariff policies, but internal divisions within the EU have delayed this effort [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Status - The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was scheduled to sign the trade agreement with Mercosur on December 20, but opposition from countries like Italy has postponed the process [3][5]. - The EU and Mercosur have been negotiating this trade agreement for over 25 years, causing frustration among South American nations, with Brazilian President Lula stating that a deal must be reached now or it will never happen [3][5]. - If the agreement is finalized, it could create a market of 780 million consumers and gradually eliminate tariffs on various goods, benefiting both regions economically [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Bloomberg Economics estimates that if the agreement is reached, it could contribute 0.7% economic growth for Mercosur and 0.1% for Europe by 2040 [5]. - The EU aims to establish economic ties outside of the U.S. and China, seeking geopolitical advantages through this transatlantic agreement [5][7]. Group 3: Internal EU Challenges - The EU has struggled to secure the necessary majority support for the agreement, with countries like France and Poland opposing it due to concerns over the impact on European farmers [8][9]. - Protests from thousands of farmers in Brussels highlight the internal resistance to the agreement, with significant pressure on EU leaders to reconsider [8][9]. - The fate of the agreement may hinge on Italy's position, as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has indicated the need for more time to gain domestic approval [9][10]. Group 4: Competitor Dynamics - As the EU struggles to finalize the agreement, competitors like Japan and the UK are eyeing the South American market and its resources, indicating a potential shift in trade alliances [12][13]. - Mercosur is also pursuing trade agreements with other partners, including the EFTA and countries like the UAE and Canada, which could further complicate the EU's position [12].

刚拿到中国的稀土出口许可，转身就对中国企业举起了"调查大棒"。这种戏剧性的反转，就发生在欧洲。这边，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩还在为欧洲企业获 得更长年限的稀y土出口许可而松一口气；那边，针对中车、同方威视等中国企业的《外国补贴条例》调查就已经密集展开，甚至还搞起了"现场突袭"。这 种操作，不仅让全球市场错愕，更让人们不禁想问：欧洲的对华政策，到底是谁在主导？又想走向何方？ 事件的矛盾点异常清晰。在中国本着维护全球供应链稳定的负责任态度，在中法元首会晤和多轮谈判后，批准了欧洲企业的稀土长期出口申请后，欧盟几乎 是"无缝衔接"地启动了对中国企业的密集调查。 这一系列调查依据的是欧盟的《外国补贴条例》（FSR），一个在2023年7月才刚刚生效的新工具。欧盟声称，此举是为了确保欧洲市场的公平竞争环境， 防止获得"外国补贴"的企业扭曲市场。然而，其调查对象的选择，却充满了明显的指向性和歧视性。从轨道交通到安检设备，再到数字平台，被瞄准的几乎 都是在欧洲市场具备强大竞争力的中国企业。 面对欧盟设置的重重障碍，坐以待毙从来不是中国企业的选项。一种"以变应变"的智慧正在浮现。 最典型的例子是比亚迪。在宣布匈牙利建厂计划后，比亚 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has imposed anti-dumping tariffs on EU pork products, leading to varied reactions within the EU, with French President Macron hinting at possible retaliatory measures against China [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that from December 17, anti-dumping tariffs ranging from 4.9% to 19.8% will be applied to EU pork and related products for five years due to identified dumping practices [1]. - Initial assessments indicated that the anti-dumping tariff rates could have been as high as 62.4% and as low as 15.6%, but the final rates were lower than expected, easing concerns for countries like Spain, a major pork exporter to China [3]. Group 2: EU Reactions - Some EU countries, such as Denmark, expressed dissatisfaction with the tariff rates, arguing they could disrupt internal competition and lead to price fluctuations [3]. - The European Commission has stated it will review China's tariff measures to ensure compliance with World Trade Organization regulations [3]. Group 3: Macron's Position - Macron emphasized the need for a rebalancing of EU-China trade relations, citing challenges such as insufficient competitiveness and innovation in Europe [5]. - He suggested that both tariffs and quotas could be used to address trade imbalances, but acknowledged that these measures lack cooperative elements [5]. - Macron's statements reflect a complex stance, where he challenges China's tariff policy while simultaneously advocating for cooperation to resolve trade issues [5]. Group 4: Future Implications - Analysts believe that China's decision to lower the tariff rates signals a willingness to engage in dialogue and negotiation to resolve disputes [6]. - The current international landscape presents significant challenges for the EU in managing its economic relations with China in a rational and pragmatic manner [6].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, marks a significant step in China's commitment to expanding its autonomous openness despite rising global protectionism [1][2]. Group 1: Hainan Free Trade Port Development - The Hainan Free Trade Port will implement a policy characterized by "open on the first line, controlled on the second line, and free within the island," facilitating the flow of people, goods, capital, and data [1]. - Since the release of the overall plan for Hainan Free Trade Port in June 2020, the province has attracted 102.5 billion yuan in foreign investment, with an annual growth rate of 14.6% [2]. - Trade in goods and services has seen annual growth rates of 31.3% and 32.3%, respectively, increasing the economic openness of Hainan to 35% [2]. Group 2: National Open Policy Context - China's reform and opening-up strategy has been crucial for achieving new developmental milestones, with nearly 1.24 million foreign-invested enterprises established in China by the end of 2024 [3]. - In November, actual foreign investment in China increased by 26.1% year-on-year, reflecting the ongoing commitment to openness despite global trade protectionism [3]. Group 3: Concept of Autonomous Openness - Autonomous openness is characterized by a proactive approach to opening up based on China's development needs and the necessity for positive global interaction, moving from a "follower" to a "leader" in openness [4]. - This approach emphasizes cooperation and mutual benefit, rather than being solely driven by external pressures or the principle of reciprocity [4]. - Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the establishment of free trade pilot zones, and the expansion of zero-tariff treatment for products from the least developed countries demonstrate China's commitment to pragmatic and proactive openness [4]. Group 4: Economic and Market Potential - China possesses the world's largest middle-income group, a complete industrial system with over 200 mature industrial clusters, and a large pool of skilled labor and entrepreneurs, providing a strong foundation for proactive international engagement [5]. - Expanding autonomous openness is seen as a dual benefit, enhancing domestic reform and development while fostering international cooperation and mutual benefits [5].

欧盟的心终于放松了！12月15日，欧委会的贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇在接受美媒采访时证实，中国已开始向欧洲企业发放有效期长达一年的稀土出口 许可证，这一消息无疑为欧洲企业解决了他们的"稀土危机"。 这背后的故事可不简单。 此前，中方出台了一系列稀土出口管制措施，立刻引起了美欧的高度关注，甚至有些恐慌。 大家总是喊着要摆脱对中国稀土的依赖，讲得多响亮，可实际情况呢？他们的努力似乎并没有太多实质性的突破。 毕竟，中国不仅在稀土储量上占据全球主导地位，提炼技术也遥遥领先。 面对这样的现实，尽管美欧一边批评中国的管控措施，另一边又忙不迭派官员去谈判，实质上，他们依然离不开中国的稀土。 此次中方发放更长有效期的稀土出口许可证，其实透露了两个关键信息。 第一，稀土是战略资源，涉及到军事和民用领域的双重作用，因此，中方加强管控是完全可以理解的，甚至是必要的。 而且，这并不意味着全面禁运，欧盟之前的恐慌反应确实有些过度，只要遵守中国的相关规定，欧洲企业照样能够获得稀土供应。 第二，中欧之间的经贸分歧完全可以通过对话解决。 尽管中方加强了稀土的管控，但并没有关闭与欧方沟通的大门，反而在回应欧方的担忧时展现了合作的意愿。 这说 ...

"墨西哥在今年中国洗衣机出口量占比4.3%，出口产品多为非全自动洗衣机，利润较低，关税上升可能 造成订单暂停或转至海外生产。"产业在线高级分析师倪子鉴说。 此次墨西哥关税调整还涉及电风扇、咖啡机、微波炉等中小型家电。一位小家电出口企业的相关负责人 告诉第一财经记者，墨西哥出口占比不多，明年部分关税增加的问题将可以通过海外工厂接单出货的方 式来解决。 "（墨西哥关税调整）对白电有影响，对黑电影响不大，因为所用材料不同。"一位彩电出口企业的相关 负责人向第一财经记者表示。 海关数据显示，2025年1-10月，中国白色家电对墨西哥出口金额达29.19亿美元，同比减少10.6%；其 中，空调、洗衣机、冷柜的出口金额分别同比减少30%、49.86%和10.7%，电风扇、微波炉、电吹风、 净水器、电熨斗、榨汁机、烤面包机的出口金额分别同比下降14.81%、9.29%、16.83%、39.77%、 16.29%、21.14%和27.75%。 墨西哥拟从2026年元旦起将对包括中国在内的多个亚洲国家的部分产品征收5%-50%关税，涉及汽车、 电器、钢铁、家具等行业，部分白色家电对墨出口将会受影响，而业内人士称对黑电影响不大。 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing economic friction between China and Europe reflects deeper challenges in the restructuring of the global economic landscape, with Europe facing internal imbalances and external competitive pressures [1] - The European Union (EU) is reversing its strict environmental policies, such as postponing the ban on new fuel vehicles from 2035 to potentially 2040, signaling a response to economic pressures [1] - The crisis in the European automotive industry, exacerbated by the rise of Chinese electric vehicles and U.S. protectionist tariffs, highlights the risks of aggressive green policies [3] Group 2 - The EU's emotional response to trade with China, including imposing anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, undermines the principles of free trade and reveals the vulnerabilities of the European automotive sector [3][4] - The internal divisions and inefficiencies within the EU are weakening its integration, as member states struggle to align on key issues, further complicating the economic landscape [6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to energy security crises and economic downturns in Europe, exemplified by Germany's consecutive years of GDP contraction [6] Group 3 - The rise of emerging markets presents a critical opportunity in the global economic competition, and the EU's adherence to outdated notions of "value superiority" may lead to its marginalization [8] - The core of the China-Europe competition lies in differing development philosophies and paths, extending beyond mere commercial interests [8] - For Europe to regain its competitive edge, it must acknowledge international changes, strengthen internal unity, and focus on technological innovation and pragmatic cooperation [8]