Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trading situation and strategies for pure benzene futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, highlighting the initial trading performance and market dynamics following the listing of the contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trading Situation - Pure benzene futures were listed on July 8, 2025, with the initial contracts priced at 5900 CNY/ton, closely aligning with the prevailing spot prices in East China [2]. - The opening prices for the contracts BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 were 5900 CNY/ton, 5950 CNY/ton, 6050 CNY/ton, and 5900 CNY/ton respectively, indicating a contango structure in the forward curve [3]. - The main contract BZ2603 recorded a trading volume of 24,865 lots and a closing price of 5931 CNY/ton, which is 31 CNY/ton higher than the listing price [3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - The article suggests a short-term bullish outlook for pure benzene due to low valuations and support from rising oil prices, while recommending a cautious approach for potential short-selling opportunities in the third quarter [4]. - The contango structure observed in the opening prices reflects the current inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation for a reversal in the curve as the market approaches the third quarter [6]. - For cross-commodity arbitrage, the article notes that the processing margin for styrene is currently low, indicating limited arbitrage opportunities, but suggests monitoring for potential upward corrections if margins fall below 100 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The article highlights that the PX price is currently weak, while benzene prices have shown slight increases, leading to a narrowing PX-BZ price spread [13]. - The anticipated improvement in PX market supply and demand dynamics suggests a potential for long positions in the PX-BZ spread as the market approaches peak demand seasons [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry as a whole fluctuated significantly in June, following the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices. The inventory, valuation, production, and apparent demand of chemical products showed mixed trends. There are potential arbitrage opportunities in several cross - variety combinations [2][10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Chemical Sector Market Trend Analysis - **Energy Price Fluctuations**: In June, affected by the Israel - Iran conflict, international crude oil prices fluctuated violently, rising from $65 per barrel to nearly $80 per barrel and then dropping to $67 per barrel. The domestic thermal coal price stabilized after a continuous decline [2][10]. - **Inventory Situation**: In June, chemical inventory showed mixed changes. PTA, caustic soda, PVC, staple fiber, and EG had obvious destocking, while bottle chips and urea had relatively obvious inventory accumulation [2][15]. - **Valuation Changes**: In June, the valuation of the chemical industry changed little. EB and PX had relatively obvious valuation expansion, mainly benefiting from the sharp fluctuations in crude oil [2][15]. - **Production Volume**: In June, the chemical production volume showed mixed changes month - on - month. PX and EB were worthy of attention. Their production volume continued to expand due to profit repair. However, the space for further growth of PX production volume is limited, while EB is expected to continue growing [15]. - **Apparent Demand**: In the first five months, the apparent demand of most chemical products showed a differentiated trend. The apparent demand of glass, soda ash, and PVC had relatively obvious negative growth, while that of EB, MEG, urea, and PE showed a significant growth trend [2][15]. 3.2 Chemical Cross - Variety Arbitrage Concerns - **Glass - Soda Ash 09 Arbitrage**: Photovoltaic glass production cuts are underway, which will put pressure on the subsequent demand for soda ash. Glass, with obviously reduced supply and a continuously high basis, may be relatively resistant to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on glass and short on soda ash [3][41]. - **Bottle Chips - PTA - Ethylene Glycol Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The self - disciplined production cuts in the bottle chip industry are underway. Since it is unsustainable for the long - term processing fee to be lower than the enterprise's cash flow, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at low prices [3][26]. - **PX - BZ Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: Under high imports, the supply and demand of pure benzene are barely balanced, but PX is expected to continue significant destocking in the second half of the year. If PXN continues to strengthen, it may lead to a passive increase in pure benzene production, thus putting pressure on pure benzene. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on PX and short on BZ [3][32][34].

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/08 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货 | 16950 | 2018 | 8.41 | | | | | 三月 | 17225 | 2043 | 10.86 | 现货进口 | 8.84 | -854.51 | 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/08 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -720 -870 -1120 -1350 理论价差 502 902 1311 1720 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -350 -400 -465 -515 理论价差 215 336 458 579 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -405 -460 -550 -635 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -30 -15 -30 -55 理论价差 211 318 426 533 镍 次月-现货 ...

新华财经北京7月8日电（记者王小璐）今日（7月8日），期货市场迎来新品种，纯苯期货和期权正式上 市。作为重要的化工原料，纯苯期货的上市将是对化工期货产业链的又一有效补充。 供需压力下如何交易？ 展望后市，在供增需弱预期下，机构提示可以单边偏空思路操作或关注跨品种、跨期套利机会。 据大连商品交易所（以下简称"大商所"）公告，纯苯期货首批上市交易合约为BZ2603、BZ2604、 BZ2605、BZ2606四个合约，挂牌基准价均为5900元／吨。市场分析人士认为，该挂牌基准价处于合理 定价范围，考虑到未来纯苯市场面临供增需弱压力，可以单边偏空思路对待，并关注跨品种和跨期套利 机会。 上半年纯苯市场供应承压需求有所支撑 纯苯是重要的有机化工原料，常温下是可燃、有致癌毒性的无色透明液体，并带有强烈的芳香气味。 作为有机化合物一级基本有机原料"三苯、三烯、一炔、一萘"（即纯苯、甲苯、二甲苯、乙烯、丙烯、 丁二烯、乙炔和萘）之一，纯苯产业链上承石油和煤两大基础能源，下接合成树脂、合成纤维、合成橡 胶三大产业，终端产品涉及纺织、家电、轮胎、染料等，在石化产业链中占据重要地位。 我国是世界最大的纯苯生产国、消费国和进口国，近 ...

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/03 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/03 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -280 -470 -770 -1000 理论价差 506 910 1323 1736 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -85 -140 -195 -245 理论价差 215 335 456 576 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -165 -235 -325 -435 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 105 120 120 125 理论价差 210 317 423 529 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 690 780 940 1050 锡 5-1 价差 -1000 理论价差 5546 期现套利跟踪 2025/07/03 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -140 -420 理论价差 237 644 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 25 -60 理论价差 113 243 国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 1, 2025. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 1, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,990, the LME price was 10,059, and the ratio was 7.97; the three - month price was 79,680, the LME price was 9,878, and the ratio was 8.07. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a loss of 1,666.99, and a profit of 1,406.63 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,500, the LME price was 2,770, and the ratio was 8.12; the three - month price was 22,445, the LME price was 2,780, and the ratio was 6.17. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.64, with a loss of 1,440.41 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,780, the LME price was 2,598, and the ratio was 8.00; the three - month price was 20,495, the LME price was 2,599, and the ratio was 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.54, with a loss of 1,404.94 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119,900, the LME price was 15,025, and the ratio was 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.23, with a loss of 2,486.93 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,925, the LME price was 2,021, and the ratio was 8.39; the three - month price was 17,225, the LME price was 2,049, and the ratio was 10.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a loss of 875.89 [2]. Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 210, - 400, - 640, and - 870 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 502, 903, 1312, and 1722 [3]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 5, - 45, - 100, and - 155, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 337, 458, and 580 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 200, - 285, - 385, and - 490, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [3]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 125, 150, 130, and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 530 [3]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 510, 590, 730, and 850 [3]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 1410, and the theoretical spread was 5538 [3]. Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 105 and - 105, and the theoretical spreads were 301 and 714 [3]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 10 and - 5, and the theoretical spreads were 130 and 261 [3]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 150 and 275, and the theoretical spreads were 151 and 264 [4]. Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.55, 3.89, 4.63, 0.91, 1.19, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous), they were 3.59, 3.80, 4.83, 0.94, 1.27, and 0.74 [4].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/30 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 80110 10134 7.81 三月 79760 9894 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.15 -2612.60 现货出口 1836.25 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22590 2765 8.17 三月 22345 2765 6.23 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.65 -1338.95 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20890 2579 8.10 三月 20480 2579 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.55 -1159.58 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 14975 8.01 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2723.01 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人 ...

国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16975 2011 8.42 三月 17180 2033 10.80 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.84 -844.55 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/26 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78570 9826 8.01 三月 78500 9726 8.08 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.15 -1355.85 现货出口 898.69 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22200 2682 8.28 三月 21945 2699 6.35 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 -1052.78 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/26 国内价格 LME价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [8] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [8] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [8] Core Views - The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum remains stable, and the Middle East crisis has not disturbed production. Consumption shows marginal weakness, and social inventory has slightly increased, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. If inventory does not accumulate during the off - season, delivery risks need long - term attention. Alumina is in a downward channel, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum has expanded, but it's difficult to further expand the profit without unexpected fundamental benefits [4]. - For alumina, the spot market has transactions, costs are stable, and the production and inventory are rising significantly with existing smelting profits [5][6]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, the price is supported by the cost, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [7]. Key Points by Content Aluminum Spot and Futures - On June 23, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,650 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,470 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,530 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [2]. - On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,425 yuan/ton, closed at 20,365 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or - 0.24% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 181,056 lots, an increase of 87,843 lots, and the position was 253,597 lots, an increase of 89,586 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of June 23, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 464,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 340,975 tons, a decrease of 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot and Futures - On June 23, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,130 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,140 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,205 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [3]. - On June 23, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,886 yuan/ton, closed at 2,906 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 335,270 lots, an increase of 11,654 lots, and the position was 286,561 lots, a decrease of 4,189 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Inventory - On June 23, 2025, the Baotai civil primary aluminum purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the mechanical primary aluminum purchase price was 15,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 1,050 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 23,800 tons, a weekly increase of 1,500 tons. The in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,100 tons. The total inventory was 106,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 600 tons [3]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is stable, the consumption is marginally weakening, the alumina price is falling, and the smelting profit is expanding, but it's difficult to further expand without unexpected benefits [4]. - **Alumina**: The spot market has transactions, the cost is stable, the bauxite freight has decreased, the alumina price has fallen, and the production and inventory are rising [5][6]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It's in the off - season, the price is supported by the cost, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [7]. Strategy - **Alumina**: The spot price is loose, the long - term surplus pattern remains, and the 09 contract has a significant discount to the spot. Be vigilant against basis risk if the spot price falls slowly [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [8].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/23 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78370 9846 7.97 三月 77570 9571 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.16 -2374.98 现货出口 1366.15 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22050 2601 8.48 三月 21560 2626 6.42 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -564.68 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20720 2528 8.20 三月 20265 2517 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.60 -1033.31 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120550 14767 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.26 -3117.40 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/23 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16700 1953 8.57 三月 16850 1981 11.06 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.90 -65 ...