转自：新华财经 •澳大利亚联邦银行：澳大利亚10月CPI环比或降0.2% •XTB：英国预算案引发市场忧虑 •惠誉BMI：上调新加坡2025年GDP至4.0% •银河国际：下调马来西亚2025年通胀预期至1.4% 【机构分析】 •美国银行质疑日本经济刺激计划效果，预计GDP提振仅0.2个百分点，远低于政府预测的1.4个百分点。 分析称减税与补贴对消费提振有限，警告日本财政赤字2026年可能扩大，凸显短期刺激与长期财政健康 平衡困难。 •银河国际下调马来西亚2025年通胀预期至1.4%（前值1.6%），因预期国际油价走低、林吉特走强。马 来西亚2025年运输与公用事业成本下降，食品价格稳定，通胀压力温和，为马来西亚央行维持现行货币 政策提供空间。 •Judo Bank首席经济顾问指出，澳大利亚将公布环比CPI数据，覆盖87个支出类别。但分析认为，因历 史数据有限导致波动性大，该数据对澳储行12月利率决策影响有限，澳储行仍将主要依赖季度通胀数据 和其他经济指标。 •惠誉旗下研究机构BMI上调新加坡2025年GDP预测至4.0%，但维持2026年增长预期1.5%不变，预计新 加坡2025年经济将明显放缓。主要拖累为 ...

Macroeconomic Outlook - Wells Fargo's 2026 macroeconomic outlook highlights that inflation and employment pressures will continue to dominate the Federal Reserve's policy decisions after the peak of tariffs [1] - The report forecasts a potential decrease in China's GDP to 43% [1] - The report indicates that the AI trend will continue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic competition between Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces, highlighting the narrowing GDP gap and the reasons behind Jiangsu's faster growth compared to Guangdong [4][6][18]. Economic Data Summary - In Q3 2025, Guangdong's GDP reached 10.52 trillion, while Jiangsu's was 10.28 trillion, with a gap of only 236.6 billion [5][6]. - Jiangsu's GDP growth rate is higher than Guangdong's, attributed to differences in industrial structure, with Jiangsu focusing more on B2B industries [7][10]. Industrial Structure Analysis - Guangdong's economy is more consumer-oriented (To C), excelling in sectors like mobile phones and home appliances, while Jiangsu is stronger in industrial intermediate goods (To B) like integrated circuits and solar cells [10][11]. - The impact of external market fluctuations is more pronounced on Guangdong due to its higher exposure to consumer preferences [10][11]. Real Estate Impact - The slowdown in Guangdong's growth is linked to the decline of key cities like Guangzhou and Foshan, heavily affected by the real estate downturn [11][12]. - In 2024, real estate investment in Jiangsu decreased by 10.3%, while Guangdong saw a sharper decline of 18.2% [11]. Comparative Economic Indicators - Despite Jiangsu's GDP growth, Guangdong leads in several economic indicators, including fiscal revenue, bank deposits, and the number of listed companies [13][14]. - Guangdong's tax revenue in 2023 was 21,638 billion, significantly higher than Jiangsu's 15,586.8 billion [14][15]. Innovation and Research - Guangdong's Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou innovation cluster ranks first globally, indicating strong technological transformation capabilities [15]. - However, Jiangsu shows higher research output, as reflected in the "2025 Natural Index" rankings [15]. Population and Fiscal Challenges - Guangdong has a larger population (127.8 million) compared to Jiangsu (85.26 million), but its per capita fiscal expenditure is lower, indicating potential challenges in public service provision [18][19]. - The high influx of migrant workers in Guangdong adds pressure on public services, which may not be adequately addressed [19].

My next guest says markets shouldn't overreact to those doubbish comments though. Joining me now is Alon's chief economic adviser, Muhammad Elaran. And Muhammad, it's great to have you on here.I mean, I guess he tried to tilt the consensus of a conflicted committee in a uh dovish direction. We have incomplete economic data and clearly different ways of looking at things. So, uh how does it net out to you.>> It nets out as uncertain. it nets out as whatever the outcome is, it's going to be controversial. It' ...

वेलकम सर। थैंक यू। सो वी विल नॉट वेस्ट मच ऑफ़ अ टाइम। एंड सांसद जी। आज का दौर बदल रहा है। लोग सिर्फ रोड्स बिल्डिंग्स की नहीं बात कर रहे हैं। सिटीज के इकोनमिक ग्रोथ की बात कर रहे हैं। और आपके टेरेक्स टॉपिक में आपने इंदौर की इकोन जो पावर हाउस है इकोनॉमिक पावर हाउस है और शहर की जीडीपी डबल करने का विज़न चुना है। वैसा क्यों. देखिए किसी भी शहर की जो तरक्की रहती है वह सिर्फ इंफ्रास्ट्रक्चर रोड हो बिल्डिंग हो उस पे नहीं रहती वो रहती है कि लोगों की क्वालिटी ऑफ़ लाइफ कैसे बेहतर हो उस पे रहती है और जीडीपी क्या है इकोनॉमि ...

Is there real progress in this economy right now. I know we can look at these numbers and find some modicum of stability, but is a real progress, real growth. Well, this is also a very important question remain, because if we think about what was the reason why we had a slowdown over the summer, it was likely because of the turmoil that came after Liberation Day.But Immigration Day is now eight, nine months ago, and things are gradually getting better on the trade for at least us. More clarity. And we've, o ...

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $59.6 billion in August, a significant drop of 23.8% month-over-month, exceeding market expectations [1][2] - The August trade data was delayed due to a 43-day federal government shutdown, originally scheduled for release on October 7 [1] - Imports fell by 5.1% to $340.4 billion, while exports saw a slight increase of 0.1% to $280.8 billion [1] Trade Deficit Details - The trade deficit in goods decreased by $18.1 billion to $85.6 billion, while the trade surplus in services increased by $0.5 billion to $26.1 billion [1] - From January to August, the trade deficit increased by 25% compared to the same period last year, with exports rising by 5.1% and imports by 9.2% [1] Trade Deficit by Country - The trade deficits with Mexico, China, Vietnam, and the European Union were $16.3 billion, $15.4 billion, $14.4 billion, and $8.1 billion, respectively [1] Economic Implications - The reduction in the trade deficit is viewed as a positive indicator for the U.S. GDP data for the third quarter, as lower imports can enhance GDP figures [2] - However, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to rising prices and inflation, raising consumer concerns [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit fell sharply by nearly 24% in August, narrowing by $18.6 billion to a total of $59.6 billion, attributed to declining imports following new tariffs from the Trump administration [1][7]. Economic Impact - A narrowing trade deficit can indicate improved economic conditions, influencing prices and job availability. In August, imports declined by over 5% from July, while exports saw a slight increase [2]. - The improvement in the trade deficit is expected to positively impact third-quarter GDP, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve updating its GDPNow projection to 4.2% [4]. Trade Dynamics - The trade deficit has fluctuated throughout the year, with an initial increase due to a rush to import goods before tariffs were implemented, leading to a 0.6% contraction in economic growth in the first quarter. However, as imports decreased, GDP rose to 3.8% in the second quarter [5]. - Year-to-date through August, the U.S. trade deficit stands at $142.5 billion, reflecting a 25% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [6]. Tariff Effects - Imports from Canada fell by $1.7 billion due to a 35% tariff on non-USMCA products, while U.S. exports to Canada increased, reducing the trade deficit with Canada to $3 billion [8]. - Swiss imports to the U.S. dropped by $6.8 billion in August following a 39% tariff, which was later reduced to 15% after negotiations [9].

Remember when people were predicting the new economic policies were going to crater the US economy?Those people are very quiet right now…Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital):Holy. Shit.Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +4.2%… a massive expansion.We’re running it hot. Get on board. https://t.co/gO3PCdWRtu ...

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit for September decreased to $59.6 billion, better than the estimated $60.8 billion and significantly down from $78.3 billion in July [1][2] - This trade data is crucial for analysts as it completes the necessary information for the upcoming third quarter GDP report [2] Trade Data - Imports from Canada in September were at their lowest level since May 2021, indicating strained trade relations [3] - The Department of Labor will not publish missing data from the shutdown period but will make it available online [4] Upcoming Economic Indicators - The September jobs report is expected to be released soon, along with jobless claims from the previous week [3][5] - The third quarter GDP report will be released next week, with a second version expected due to surpassing initial estimates [5][6] - Future reports include November income and spending data scheduled for December 19th, while the status of October's jobs, CPI, and PBI remains uncertain [6]