Government Shutdown Overview - The government is currently in a shutdown, with discussions ongoing about potential actions to resolve the situation within the next 48 hours [3] - The House has passed a clean Continuing Resolution (CR), but negotiations are stalled due to political dynamics, particularly involving Chuck Schumer and the Democratic leadership [4][5] Political Dynamics - The current negotiations are influenced by Chuck Schumer's declining poll numbers, which are affecting the Democratic party's willingness to compromise [6][21] - The Republican leadership, including President Trump and Vice President Vance, is pushing for a clean CR without additional spending increases, arguing that the economy is already growing at 3.8% and does not need further inflationary pressures [10][11] Economic Implications - There is concern that the proposed $1.5 trillion increase in spending could exacerbate inflation, which is already at its highest in decades [11] - The shutdown could negatively impact GDP growth and working Americans, with potential job layoffs and furloughs in the federal government being discussed as a consequence of the ongoing impasse [19][12] Healthcare and Subsidies - The discussion includes potential cuts to Medicaid and the impact of COVID-era subsidies, with some moderate Republicans expressing buyer's remorse regarding previous agreements [14] - President Trump's administration is focused on reducing prescription drug prices as part of broader healthcare budget reforms, which could influence future negotiations [16][17]

Let's bring in Kevin Green, senior markets correspondent right away to help set up the action today. KG, when I was watching the market yesterday, I was like, what is happening. When we got halfway through the day and you started to see things go green, um, you know, and then you had some mixed choppy action and ultimately the Bulls just took over.What do you make of all this. Yeah, it was actually an interesting dynamic yesterday when you're seeing the fact that we were in the green and we actually did fin ...

Economic Growth - GDP增长通常被认为是经济增长的标志 [1] - 经济增长可以提高生活水平 [1] Potential Risks - 不均衡的经济增长可能导致通货膨胀 [1] - 不均衡的经济增长可能加剧不平等 [1]

Michael Aron is chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management. Mike, always appreciate having you on. You know, stocks may be due for whatever, but it doesn't mean they're going to do that, does it.It doesn't, Brian. The foundation for this bull market remains solid. So, trades coming into clearer focus.It's not perfect, but we've avoided the worst outcome. Now, we're throwing a little gasoline on the fire with both fiscal policy and monetary policy. Oh, and by the way, earnings are grow ...

Market Overview & Outlook - Equity market experienced a phenomenal recovery, with low stocks up 38% since Liberation Day [1] - A potential 5-10% correction is possible, considering the S&P's forward multiples at approximately 22 times earnings and the 10-year Treasury yields slightly above 4% [2] - The market is expected to see a rolling rotation, with profit-taking from the "Magnificent Seven" benefiting small-cap, value, and international stocks [3] Earnings & Revenue Performance - Second-quarter revenues increased by 6% year-over-year, and earnings increased by 12% year-over-year, both exceeding expectations [4] - Third-quarter revenues are projected to increase by approximately 6-7%, with earnings expected to show solid double-digit growth [4] - Federated Hermes is reevaluating and increasing its earnings estimates for the remainder of the current year and the following year [5] Economic Indicators & GDP - The U S GDP estimate for the next year is 28%, while the blue-chip consensus is 15% [6] International Markets - International stocks are considered attractive due to valuations being 40% cheaper than domestic stocks, compared to a typical discount of 20% [8] - The dividend yield on international stocks is approximately 29%, significantly higher than the S&P's 12% [8] - A weak dollar and accommodative foreign central banks are expected to facilitate stronger economic and earnings growth in international markets [9] - The company maintains an overweight position in international assets, viewing them as a favorable subcategory [10]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 9 月 30 日， 统计局发布 9 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.8%，预期 49.7%，前值 49.4%。非制造业 PMI 50.0%，前值 50.3%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，制造业反弹仍然是生产分项拉动。9 月制造业生产环比回升 1.1 个百分点至 51.9%，新订单上升 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%。对比往年同期，2016-2024 年间（剔除 2020/2022）生产和新订单的平均变动幅度分别为 +0.24、+0.41 个百分点。9 月作为秋季旺季，多会呈现出季节性规律之外的供需两旺。而今年 9 月生产相对更 强，新订单偏弱。两者分别拉动制造业 PMI 约 0.28、0.06 个百分点，是制造业 PMI反弹的主要拉动因素。 第二，价格连涨两个月之后回撤。制造业价格回落，出厂价回调 0.9 个百分点至 48.2%（7-8 月合计涨 2.9%），仍然处于收缩区间。这指向 9 月 PPI 环比可能仍为负。而原材料购进价格指数回调幅较小，仅调 0.1 个 百分点至 53.2%（7-8 月合计涨 4.9%），仍然处于扩张区间。非制造业价格方面，建筑业和服务业价格分别下滑 1 ...

It's time for money power politics. And this evening, I want to think about this number, 22,000. That is the small number of people employers hired in the month of August.The same number that gave the Federal Reserve the green light to cut rates for the first time in nearly a year because they're worried about the economy growing or not growing. Well, this Friday, we're going to get the September jobs report and learn more about the labor market. Or at least we will if the government doesn't shut down.This ...

Core Insights - The potential government shutdown poses a significant risk to the timely release of key economic data, particularly the jobs report, which could impact Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates [2][10]. Economic Impact of a Shutdown - A full government shutdown could result in approximately 800,000 federal employees being furloughed, similar to the 2013 shutdown [5]. - Deutsche Bank estimates that each week of shutdown could reduce quarterly GDP by 0.2% [6]. - The economic damage from a shutdown is typically short-lived, but there are concerns that this time could be different due to potential deeper cuts in the federal workforce [7][8]. Historical Context of S&P 500 During Shutdowns - Historically, the S&P 500 has shown negligible lasting impacts during government shutdowns, with an average return of 0% since 1976 [9]. - During the longest shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019, the S&P 500 actually increased by 10%, driven by a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve [9]. Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions on interest rate cuts may be hindered by the lack of payroll and inflation data during a shutdown [10]. - Markets are currently pricing in a 89% probability of a Fed rate cut on October 29 [10]. Legislative Developments - House Republicans have proposed a seven-week funding extension, but it has not passed the Senate [12]. - Senate Democrats have attempted to push an alternative funding plan that includes significant healthcare spending, but it has also faced challenges [12][13].

RT Kaps (@0xKaps)What is MegaGDP? 🤔but first let’s understand GDPGDP = the total value of goods and services produced in a country. think of it as a scorecard for a country’s economic health.now in web3, we can borrow this idea for a blockchain.MegaGDP is basically:the total economic activity happening on the MegaETH chain.This includes things like- Trading volume on DEXs and- Lending & borrowing activity- MegaUSD- NFT mints & marketplace volume- Onchain apps & other stablecoins- any other onchain transacti ...

But I keep hearing the sword recently, and that's for stagflation. And that's what we're digging into on today's stocks in translation. First, let's get our terms straight.Staglation here means three warning lights flashing at once. Weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Stagnation plus inflation.And some folks draw a line between capital S, the 1970s kind of stagflation, and the lowercase S when only parts show up. And since the pandemic, we've really only seen the lowercase kind. ...