Core Views - The report suggests that 2026 may witness a structural recovery in earnings, leading to a slow bull market in A-shares, driven by technology and cyclical sectors, despite high valuations [5][17] - The main theme for 2026 is expected to be a continuation of loose liquidity and a structural recovery in earnings, with potential for strong performance in technology and cyclical industries [6][37] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates, maintaining a loose liquidity environment domestically [19][24] - Exports are anticipated to face high base pressure but may still show resilience, particularly in high-tech products and emerging markets [26][27] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by proactive fiscal policies and increased issuance of special bonds [28] - Real estate investment growth is likely to remain weak, although policies may ease, leading to a gradual stabilization in housing prices and sales [30] - Manufacturing investment growth is projected to stabilize and recover, driven by policies promoting new productive forces and equipment upgrades [32] Industry Allocation - The report recommends focusing on technology growth and cyclical growth as the main allocation themes for 2026, with specific attention to sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric new energy, machinery, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military industry, and non-bank financials [7] - Large-cap and small-cap stocks are expected to perform relatively well, with a tilt towards cyclical styles [7] Earnings Recovery - Earnings in the technology and cyclical sectors are expected to continue rising, contributing positively to overall A-share performance [37][39] - The report highlights that fiscal policy support may enhance corporate earnings growth, similar to past instances of fiscal stimulus [39]

25年财政收入温和修复，财政支出积极、节奏前置、"投资于人"特征明显，并实现了积极的化债成效。 展望2026年，财政依旧是刺激总需求，并最终影响银行资产扩张增速中枢的核心力量。积极的财政政策 定调下，该行预计狭义财政赤字率水平至少持平于2025年，财政节奏仍然有前置特征，助力银行信贷开 门红，并且在消费信贷领域的支持或有更广义的延展。该行测算信贷增速将在6.1%~6.6%运行，社融同 比增速在8.3%~9.0%运行。 2026年银行净息差有望企稳回升，负债成本改善仍是叙事主线，但资产端收益贡献或也边际改善 25年银行计息负债成本率显著改善，成为稳定息差表现的核心力量。展望26年，该行预测银行息差有望 企稳回升：1)负债端：存款重定价规模或有增加，幅度有所减弱，但对息差提振效果依旧可观。测算26 年进入重定价周期的存款规模约112万亿元，对计息负债成本率改善的贡献度约17.5BP，对净息差的支 撑效果约15.6BP。既有的模型大约表达了58%的负债成本改善效果，线性递推到26年，计息负债成本率 压降和对净息差的改善效果分别为30BP和27BP。2)资产端：重定价影响较为有限，关注新发贷款利率 拐点的或有出现。2 ...

12月4日，中国共产党武汉市第十四届委员会第十二次全体会议举行，审议并通过了 《中共武汉市委关于制定全市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。 《中共武汉市委关于制定全市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》共有15个 部分、61条，分为三大板块。 一起来看 ↓↓↓ "十五五"时期我市发展总体上 处于重要战略机遇期 "十五五"时期武汉经济社会发展 的总体思路和主要目标 "十五五"时期武汉经济社会发 展的指导思想 "十五五"时期武汉经济社会发 展必须遵循的原则 坚持党的全面领导 坚持人民至上 坚持高质量发展 坚持全面深化改革 坚持有效市场和有为政府相 结合 坚持统筹发展和安全 "十五五"时期我市经济社会发 展的主要目标 发展能级实现新跃升 新质生产力发展取得显著成效 全面深化改革和高水平开放 取得新突破 社会文明程度显著提升 -人民生活品质不断提高 美丽武汉建设取得重大进展 提高城乡居民收入水平 办好人民满意的教育 完善多层次社会保障体系 加快建设健康武汉 促进人口高质量发展 稳步推进基本公共服务均等化 加快经济社会发展全面绿色转 型,打造人与自然和谐共生的美丽 武汉 深入推进长江大保护 全面改善生态 ...

12月3日至4日，"2026邮政金融论坛暨中邮证券策略报告会"在北京成功举办。本次论坛由中邮证券联合中国邮政储蓄银行、中邮保险共同主办，是邮政整 合银行、证券、保险等多方资源、协同发力、共谋发展的一次重要实践。论坛聚焦"十五五"开局之年的宏观经济趋势、金融改革深化、科技创新驱动等核 心议题，来自邮政集团、金融机构、企业界及学术界的众多嘉宾汇聚一堂，通过主题演讲与专题研讨，共谋金融与实体经济深度融合的高质量发展路径。 中国邮政集团副总经理、邮储银行行长刘建军在主会场发表主旨演讲，中国邮政集团总会计师王嘉君作开幕致辞，中邮保险董事长韩广岳、国务院发展研 究中心原副主任刘世锦、清华大学金融科技研究院副院长薛正华、中邮证券首席经济学家黄付生等也发表主旨演讲，中邮证券董事长龚启华主持主会场会 议。 王嘉君在开幕致辞中表示，党的二十届四中全会准确把握我国发展的历史方位，深入分析国际国内形势，擘画了未来5年发展的宏伟蓝图，为深入推进中 国式现代化指明了前进方向。其中，对金融"五篇大文章"、交通强国、低空经济、跨境电商、降低全社会物流成本、扎实推进乡村全面振兴、稳步推进基 本公共服务均等化等领域作出顶层设计和战略部署，为谱写 ...

Group 1 - The rebar steel market is operating weakly, with the main contract closing at 3110 CNY/ton, a monthly increase of 0.13%, while the East China spot price is at 3250 CNY/ton, up 0.69% month-on-month, indicating a potential for a short-term rebound in December [2] - The apparent consumption of rebar steel decreased from 232.18 million tons at the end of October to 216.37 million tons by mid-November, with steel mills facing losses leading to negative feedback across the industry chain [3] - The macroeconomic outlook has strengthened, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rising from 63% to 87% by December, alongside positive signals in domestic PMI data, suggesting improved demand [4] Group 2 - Environmental production restrictions in Tangshan have tightened, potentially affecting daily iron output by approximately 3.91 thousand tons, with further inspections and adjustments likely due to violations found in steel production capacity [5] - Demand for rebar steel has outperformed expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 1.15% in apparent demand during the last week of November, marking the first positive growth in four months [6] - The cost support logic remains intact, with iron ore inventories at a five-year low and coking coal inventories also relatively low, indicating room for replenishment and reinforcing cost support for steel production [8]

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the implementation of the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which aims to guide local governments in planning for the next five years of development [1][2][3] - The provincial propaganda team conducted reports in various cities, emphasizing the importance of translating the session's spirit into actionable plans that resonate with local conditions and development goals [1][4] - Local leaders expressed commitment to high-quality planning for the "14th Five-Year" and "15th Five-Year" periods, ensuring that the session's directives are integrated into their development strategies [2][3] Group 2 - The focus on specific industries and regional advantages was highlighted, with local governments aiming to leverage their unique resources and opportunities to drive economic growth [4][5] - The emphasis on improving public services and addressing local needs was noted, with initiatives aimed at enhancing efficiency and accessibility in government services to support high-quality development [5] - Agricultural development was identified as a critical area, with local authorities planning to enhance agricultural mechanization and integration of various sectors to improve rural livelihoods and environments [5]

Group 1 - The core strategy of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is to enhance the resident consumption rate, solidifying domestic demand as the main engine for economic growth [1][2] - The "2026 Consumption Trends Conference" will be held in Beijing, focusing on new opportunities to boost consumption and high-quality development for industries and enterprises [1][2] - The conference will feature experts discussing macroeconomic trends and the opportunities arising from the expansion of domestic demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 2 - Two major reports will be launched at the conference: "A Decade of Changes in Chinese Consumption" and "2026 China Consumption Trends Report," summarizing structural changes in consumer psychology and market [5] - The reports aim to help businesses identify new directions and opportunities in brand marketing for 2026 [5] Group 3 - The conference will explore the evolution of consumer rights protection, industry integration, and emerging consumption opportunities through various expert perspectives [6][7] - A focus will be on the underlying logic of consumption market evolution, providing forward-looking decision-making references [7] Group 4 - The event will include discussions on the transformation of consumer experience from brand elevation to aesthetic elevation, emphasizing the importance of creating exceptional consumer experiences [8] - Experts will share insights on how businesses can transition from brand competition to aesthetic shaping [8] Group 5 - The conference will feature a variety of practical case studies and strategies for innovation in the consumer goods industry, including insights from market monitoring experts and brand operators [9] - Presentations will cover macro data, retail patterns, and industry opportunities, providing a comprehensive analysis of the consumer goods market [9] Group 6 - The automotive industry will be a key focus, with discussions on market trends and brand growth paths during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [20] - Experts will provide authoritative data insights into the automotive market's trajectory and future predictions [21] Group 7 - The hospitality and restaurant sectors are expected to face new opportunities and challenges, with insights into industry trends based on consumption indices [22] - The conference will also address how regional specialty industries can integrate with cultural tourism to enhance their market presence [23][24]

Core Points - The meeting of the Wuhan Municipal Committee emphasizes the implementation of the spirit of the 20th Central Committee and the important speeches of General Secretary Xi Jinping, aiming to accelerate the construction of a national central city and modernize Wuhan [1][5][6] Group 1: Economic Development - The meeting outlines the goal of achieving significant progress in building the "Five Centers" and modernizing Wuhan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6] - The focus is on elevating the city's economic capabilities to enhance overall strength, with a commitment to stable growth and effective quality improvement [7] - Strategies include expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and fostering a favorable investment environment [7] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The meeting highlights the importance of technological innovation as a driver for new productive forces, with plans to establish a nationally influential technology innovation center [8] - Emphasis is placed on integrating traditional industry upgrades, emerging industry growth, and future industry cultivation [8] Group 3: Urban Development - The meeting stresses the need for urban renewal to transform development methods, focusing on high-quality urban development and enhancing urban functions [8] - The approach includes implementing a "Five Reforms and Four Improvements" strategy to drive economic transformation [8] Group 4: Open Economy - The meeting calls for a balanced approach to internal and external openness, aiming to strengthen the internal market while optimizing external interactions [9] - Plans to enhance the city's role as an open hub and expand institutional openness are discussed [9] Group 5: Social Welfare - The meeting emphasizes a people-centered development philosophy, aiming to ensure that modernization benefits all citizens fairly [9] - There is a commitment to improving public services and enhancing the sense of security and happiness among the populace [9] Group 6: Governance and Party Building - The meeting underscores the importance of high-quality party governance to support the development goals of the "Five Centers" and modern Wuhan [10] - It includes plans for strengthening grassroots party organizations and ensuring a positive political environment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2026 is expected to exhibit characteristics of "multiple lines of attack and blooming at multiple points" from an industry allocation perspective, according to Wang Daji, Chief Strategy Analyst at Zheshang Securities [1] Investment Opportunities - **Consumption and Wealth Effect Line**: The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high importance on "domestic demand." In the context of a systematic market uptrend and the wealth effect of the stock market, attention should be given to relatively lagging sectors such as consumer services, food and beverage, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery [1] - **Prosperity Direction Line**: Focus on industries such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, electronics, power equipment, and non-bank financials [1] - **Traditional Industry Line**: The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes the "optimization and upgrading of traditional industries." Key areas to watch include basic chemicals, machinery, construction (state-owned infrastructure), coal, and steel [1] - **Dividend Stabilizer Line**: The year 2026 will mark the implementation of new public fund regulations. Considering factors like dividend yield and under-allocation in public funds, sectors such as banking and transportation should be monitored [1]

Group 1 - The core driver of the current A-share market is a systematic increase in risk appetite, stemming from a profound "reconstruction" of the global landscape, influenced by the U.S.-China rivalry and the shift towards a "China model" focusing on supply chain security, technology, manufacturing, and military industries [3] - The "Fifteen Five" strategy emphasizes proactive policy measures and strategic opportunities, contrasting with the previous "Fourteen Five" period, indicating a stronger focus on national strength and institutional expectations in capital market pricing [3][4] - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in managing expectations and addressing local government debt risks, with a projected "slow bull" market characterized by steady index growth and accelerated market rotation [4] Group 2 - Key time points for the U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S.-China relations include potential policy shifts following the mid-2026 Federal Reserve chair transition and significant diplomatic engagements, which could influence market risk appetite [4] - The 2026 market is anticipated to experience structural rotation, driven by the global reconstruction and the initiation of the "Fifteen Five" plan, with a shift in capital market pricing logic from short-term profits to long-term national strength and institutional expectations [6][7] - The report identifies four main investment themes for 2026: technology innovation focusing on AI, upstream resource strategic positioning, new consumption opportunities, and safe asset allocations amid geopolitical uncertainties [8][9]