Group 1 - The central bank of China set the RMB to USD midpoint at 7.1321, a decrease of 34 points [2] Group 2 - Former St. Louis Fed President and potential Fed Chair candidate, Brad, advocates for a 100 basis point rate cut this year [4] - Brad has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Yellen regarding his candidacy and plans to meet after Labor Day [4] - Future rate cuts will depend on economic data performance, according to Brad [4] - Brad emphasized the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [4]

Monetary Policy Outlook - Three Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations for a September interest rate cut [1] - The officials cited insufficient data to support a rate cut and concerns about the impact on inflation expectations [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic still anticipates only one rate cut this year [1] Economic Assessment - The economy is in a transitional period [1]

Group 1 - South Korean investors are increasingly buying Chinese assets, making China the second-largest overseas investment destination for South Korea [3] - Year-to-date, South Korean funds have net bought approximately $4.99 million in Chinese stocks, reversing a trend of net selling over the past three years [3] - Chinese-themed ETFs listed in South Korea have shown impressive returns, with some products achieving monthly gains exceeding 60% [3] Group 2 - The A-share market has seen significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, stabilizing above 3700 points [4] - As of August 21, the total market capitalization of A-shares reached 101.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.63 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [4] - Individual investors hold approximately 33% of the market, resulting in a net gain of about 5.16 trillion yuan for these investors, equating to an average profit of approximately 21,500 yuan per investor this year [4] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has raised the RMB to a nine-month high against the US dollar, with the onshore exchange rate surpassing 7.17 [5] - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was adjusted to 7.1287, marking a significant increase of 97 basis points [5] Group 4 - Several banks in China have announced reductions in deposit interest rates, with some banks lowering rates by up to 20 basis points [6][7] - For example, a bank in Jilin has adjusted its interest rates for various deposit types, including a reduction of the savings account rate from 0.20% to 0.15% [7] Group 5 - Alibaba plans to spin off its subsidiary, Zhibo Network Technology Co., Ltd., and list it independently on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [14] - Zhibo focuses on developing intelligent cockpit solutions and offers three types of solutions, including OS solutions and AI end-to-end solutions [14]

2025.08. 22 本文字数：1288，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间8月21日，杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会在美国怀俄明州召开。市场高度关注美联储主席鲍威尔 将在22日的讲话，担心他释放鹰派信号，引发新一轮市场震荡。与此同时，多位地区联储主席在会 议间隙接受采访，传递出偏谨慎的态度。 宽松预期或过度 21日，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）直言，通胀压力尚未消退，目前缺乏立即降息 的依据。她表示将"以开放心态对待每一次会议"，但现有数据并不足以支撑政策放松。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Jeff Schmid）的表态更为直接。他提到，通胀"仍更接近3%而非 2%"，若过早放松政策，可能损害公众预期。他强调，现行4.25%至4.5%的利率区间"并未对经济 造成明显抑制"，因此没有理由仓促行动。"最后一段路最难，"施密德表示，美联储必须谨慎评估降 息对通胀心态的长期影响。 今年年会的主题聚焦劳动力市场，这让部分投资者对央行可能强调通胀和独立性的担忧暂时缓解。东 京资产管理公司Simplex基金经理千叶（Chiba）分析称："一度有人猜测央行官员会释放更强硬的 内部分歧与政治 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 index declining for the fifth consecutive trading day as investors await comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 152.81 points, or 0.34%, closing at 44,785.50 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 72.55 points, or 0.34%, to 21,100.31 points; and the S&P 500 decreased by 25.61 points, or 0.40%, to 6,370.17 points [1] Stock Performance - Walmart (WMT.US) saw a decline of over 4%, while Tesla (TSLA.US) fell by 1% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.3%, with Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) increasing by 11.6% and NIO (NIO.US) rising by over 9%, while Alibaba (BABA.US) dropped by 1% [1] European Market - The German DAX 30 index increased by 13.51 points, or 0.06%, closing at 24,290.61 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 20.71 points, or 0.22%, to 9,308.85 points; while the French CAC 40 index fell by 34.74 points, or 0.44%, to 7,938.29 points [1] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for October delivery rose by $0.81, closing at $63.52 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; Brent crude oil futures for October delivery increased by $0.83, closing at $67.67 per barrel, a 1.24% rise [2] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.41%, closing at 98.619 [2] - The euro traded at 1.1610 against the dollar, down from 1.1655; the pound traded at 1.3419, down from 1.3452; while the dollar appreciated against the yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell by over 1.4%, trading at $112,596.9; Ethereum dropped by over 2%, trading at $4,242.36 [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. August PMI data indicates strong economic performance, with a 2.5% annualized growth rate, surpassing the first half's average of 1.3% [4] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase in nearly three months, indicating potential layoffs and a weakening labor market [5] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. remained stable at 6.58%, the lowest level since October of the previous year [8] Company News - Apple (AAPL.US) raised the monthly subscription price for its streaming service Apple TV+ by 30% to $13, effective immediately for new subscribers in the U.S. and select international markets [9] - Deutsche Bank raised the target price for Estée Lauder (EL.US) from $98 to $100 [10] - Jefferies lowered the target price for Target (TGT.US) from $120 to $115 and for Baidu (BIDU.US) from $110 to $108 [10]

Market Overview - US stock indices collectively declined due to investor concerns over potential hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which could lead to market volatility [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September is around 80%, but this expectation is facing challenges as investors reassess risks and choose to take profits [1] - Data from LSEG indicates that traders' bets on a 25 basis point rate cut have dropped from 99.9% to 79% [1] - The S&P 500 index saw declines across 9 of its 11 sectors, with consumer staples leading the drop at 1.18% [3] Company Performance - Walmart's stock fell 4.5% after reporting Q2 revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $176.16 billion, but adjusted EPS of $0.68 fell short of the expected $0.74, marking the first miss in three years [4] - Major tech stocks continued to decline, with Tesla down 1.17%, Meta down 1.15%, and Amazon down 0.83% [4] - Coty experienced a significant drop of 21.4% due to anticipated sales declines attributed to weak demand in the US market [5] Sector Dynamics - Recent data showed a rebound in US business activity for August and an unexpected month-over-month increase in July home sales, contributing to rising US Treasury yields and further pressure on the stock market [2] - The technology sector has faced a sell-off, raising concerns over inflated valuations since April and increasing regulatory scrutiny from the US government [2] Notable Developments - Apple raised the monthly subscription price for Apple TV+ by 30% to $13 as part of its strategy to expand service revenue, with the annual plan remaining at $99 [9] - Anthropic is in talks to raise up to $10 billion in new funding, which would be one of the largest funding rounds for an AI startup to date, with strong investor demand driving the increase from an initial target of $5 billion [8]

美联储柯林斯表示，如果劳动力市场前景恶化，短期内可能适宜降息；不能等到通胀完全明朗才考虑降 息；预计通胀将持续上升至年底，然后在2026年恢复早前的下降趋势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite an increase in initial jobless claims indicating a slowdown in the labor market, a robust manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has led traders to reduce bets on interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a rate cut in September now around 65%, down from over 90% a week ago [1] Group 1: Labor Market and Interest Rates - The increase in initial jobless claims suggests a cooling labor market [1] - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for any hints regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - Several policymakers, including Cleveland Fed President Mester and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, have expressed a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to rely on data [1] Group 2: Trade and Regulatory Developments - The U.S. and EU finalized a framework agreement last Thursday, building on a deal reached the previous month [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice has indicated a potential investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Cook, with a senior official urging Powell to remove her from the Fed's board [1] - Trump's housing finance chief, Pulte, has called for an investigation into Cook's alleged mortgage agreement reached in 2021 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America indicates that the US dollar may weaken further as the Federal Reserve appears ready to restart interest rate cuts despite persistent inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The disappointing non-farm payroll data for July and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to market expectations for quicker and larger rate cuts, even as inflation shows signs of stickiness [1] - The potential for interest rate cuts amid rising inflation creates a favorable environment for the depreciation of the dollar [1] Group 2: Currency Forecast - Bank of America forecasts that the EUR/USD exchange rate will rise from the current level of 1.1620 to 1.20 by the end of the year, and further to 1.25 by the end of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Former St. Louis Fed President and candidate for Fed Chair, Brad, calls for a 100 basis point rate cut this year [1] Group 1 - Brad has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Basent regarding his candidacy for Fed Chair and plans to possibly arrange a meeting after Labor Day on September 1 [1] - The decision on whether to further cut rates next year will depend on data performance, according to Brad [1] - Brad emphasized the necessity of maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1]