Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in July if inflation pressures remain moderate, as indicated by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman [3][4] - Bowman's comments align with those of another Fed official, suggesting a shift in focus towards potential labor market weakness [3] - Current data shows that Trump's tariffs have had minimal impact on inflation, allowing for a more favorable environment for a rate cut [3][4] Group 2 - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, with a 23% probability of a rate cut at that meeting and a 78% probability for September [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's potential retaliation against U.S. military facilities, is causing market fluctuations but has not significantly impacted oil prices [6][8] - Despite rising geopolitical risks, analysts believe that the global oil supply remains sufficient, which helps to manage the associated risks [8][9]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for an interest rate cut as early as July, arguing that action should not wait until the job market collapses [2][3] - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some officials emphasizing the need to maintain anti-inflation measures [3][5] - Political pressure is mounting on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with former President Trump criticizing him and suggesting potential changes in leadership [4][5] Group 2 - Economic indicators present a complex situation: core PCE inflation has dropped to a two-year low of 2.1%, but the Fed predicts a rebound to 3.1% by year-end [5] - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, yet there are signs of job reductions and an increase in long-term unemployment claims [5] - Businesses are hesitant to invest due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, leading to a "low hiring, low firing" scenario [5]

General Information - Report Date: June 24, 2025 [2][6][14] - Report Provider: Guotai Junan Futures [2] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has been agreed upon, which will have a significant impact on the prices of commodities such as crude oil and precious metals [7][24][30][32][35][39] - Crude oil prices have dropped significantly due to the geopolitical cooling, and the upward trend may end, but short - term positives may limit the decline speed [8][9] - Different commodities have different trends, such as silver continuing to rise, copper being supported by inventory reduction, etc. [16][25] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Geopolitical cooling led to a sharp drop in prices, with both Brent and WTI falling below $70/barrel, a cumulative decline of over 10% from the previous high [8] - The upward trend may end, and the market may shift from an upward trend to a wide - range shock and then a downward trend. It is recommended to clear long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [8][9] Gold and Silver - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire situation. Gold trend strength is - 1 [16][23] - Silver: Continuing to rise. Silver trend strength is - 1 [16][23] Copper - Inventory reduction supports the price. Copper trend strength is 1 [16][25][27] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: Waiting for direction selection, trend strength is 0 [16][28][30] - Alumina: Range - bound, trend strength is 0 [16][28][30] - Aluminum Alloy: Under pressure, trend strength is 0 [16][28][30] Zinc - Short - term reduction in positions leads to an upward movement, trend strength is 0 [16][31][32] Lead - Medium - term is relatively strong, trend strength is 0 [16][34][35] Tin - Tight current situation but weak expectations, trend strength is 0 [16][37][40] Stainless Steel and Nickel - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weakly marginal, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel trend strength is 0 [16][42][45] - Nickel: The expectation of the distal nickel ore end is loose, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity. Nickel trend strength is 0 [16][42][45] Carbonate Lithium - Weakly oscillating, and the warehouse receipt reduction continues. Carbonate lithium trend strength is 0 [16][46][48] Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon: The idea is mainly to short on rallies. Polysilicon trend strength is - 1 [16][50][52] - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to the changes in warehouse receipts. Industrial silicon trend strength is 0 [16][50][52] Iron Ore - Expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating within a range. Iron ore trend strength is 0 [16][53] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation. Rebar trend strength is 0 [16][55][58] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Wide - range oscillation. Hot - rolled coil trend strength is 0 [16][56][58] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: Plate sentiment resonance, wide - range oscillation. Ferrosilicon trend strength is 0 [16][59][61] - Silicomanganese: Ore quotes are firm, wide - range oscillation. Silicomanganese trend strength is 0 [16][59][61] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, wide - range oscillation. Coke trend strength is 0 [16][62][64] - Coking Coal: Wide - range oscillation. Coking coal trend strength is 0 [16][62][64] Steam Coal - Demand is yet to be released, wide - range oscillation. Steam coal trend strength is 0 [16][66][69]

一、 宏观数据速览 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 月值 | 亿元 | | 22871.00 11591.00 | 20623.00 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | | | 比 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M1(货币):同 ...

注意，中东局势出现缓解，美国总统特朗普发文称，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致。市场对石油供应中断的担忧情绪大幅缓 解，国际油价重创，回到之前的低点，国内油价预计涨幅稍有减少。 今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第5个工作日，当前预计油价上涨520元/吨，相比昨日的油价预计涨幅减少85元/吨，折合每升油价上涨0.39- 0.47元。仍远超油价上调红线，油价要涨 注意，油价大涨中 | 福建 | 7.14 | 7.63 | 9.13 | 6.82 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海南 | 8.29 | 8.8 | 9.95 | 6.91 | | 广东 | 7.19 | 7.79 | 9.79 | 6.83 | | 广西 | 7.24 | 7.82 | 9.06 | 6.88 | | 広開 | 7.32 | 7.86 | 8.54 | 6.9 | | 贵州 | 7.3 | 7.72 | 8.62 | 6.93 | | 四川 | 7.27 | 7.77 | 8.45 | 6.88 | | 重庆 | 7.24 | 7.65 | 9.24 | 6.89 | | श्रीमें स् ...

6月24日消息，三大指数涨跌不一，网约车板块涨幅居前。截至今日开盘，沪指报3380.08点，跌 0.04%；深成指报10074.27点，涨0.26%；创指报2024.70点，涨0.35%。 消息面： 1、国务院总理李强日前签署国务院令，公布《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》，自公布之日起施 行。《规定》旨在规范互联网平台企业向税务机关报送平台内经营者和从业人员涉税信息，提升税收服 务与管理效能，保护纳税人合法权益，营造公平统一的税收环境，促进平台经济规范健康发展。 2、当地时间6月23日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，以色列和伊朗已同意 全面停火。随后，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡要求部长们暂不对以伊停火发表评论。伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫 的顾问则表示，特朗普发表的（以伊）停火声明和停火机制"只是挑衅伊朗的伎俩"。 3、当地时间6月23日晚，伊朗宣布针对美军在伊拉克和卡塔尔的基地发动导弹袭击。伊朗武装部队发表 声明称，他们向卡塔尔乌代德基地发射了"毁灭性且威力巨大"的导弹。美方称伊朗袭击卡塔尔美军基地 暂无人员伤亡。 4、外交部发言人郭嘉昆昨日就伊朗拟关闭霍尔木兹海峡表示，波斯湾及其附近水域是重要 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a significant drop in oil prices and a weakening of the US dollar index, while increasing market risk appetite [2][6]. - Gold prices are under pressure due to the cease - fire and the potential for a July interest rate cut [3][17][18]. - Different commodity markets show various trends. For example, the agricultural product market has inventory changes, the black metal market has weak demand, and the energy - chemical market is affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [4][32][56]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce called for optimizing rebate policies and shortening the rebate settlement cycle [13]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng attended a political consultative meeting and emphasized economic reform tasks [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Finance met with the China - US Chamber of Commerce delegation to discuss Sino - US economic and trade relations [15]. - Investment advice: Balance asset allocation [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Bowman supports a July interest rate cut if inflation is under control [17]. - Trump announced a phased full - scale cease - fire between Israel and Iran [17]. - Gold prices are weakening, with a risk of decline due to reduced geopolitical tensions and the potential for a rate cut [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru aims to win a majority in the Senate election and ensure energy supply [20]. - A Fed official supports a July interest rate cut [20]. - Trump announced a temporary cease - fire between Israel and Iran, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index [21]. - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar index to decline in the short term [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The preliminary US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 52 [22]. - Iran's attack on a US military base was less than expected [23]. - Fed Vice - Chair Bowman hinted at a possible July interest rate cut [24]. - Investment advice: Expect US stocks to oscillate weakly [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 2205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [25]. - Yield is approaching the previous low, and institutions with floating profits may take profit. The bond market is expected to oscillate weakly at the beginning of the week and strengthen later [25]. - Investment advice: Long - position holders can continue to hold, and consider buying on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 903 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of June, with a lower daily average export volume than last year [27]. - The good - quality rate of US soybeans remained the same as the previous week [28]. - Domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory continued to rise [29]. - Investment advice: The market lacks a basis for a sharp rise, with short - term prices oscillating. Focus on US soybean weather and Sino - US relations [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% from June 1 - 20 [30]. - Palm oil and soybean oil inventories in China increased [30][31]. - The bullish sentiment in the vegetable oil market has weakened, and the increase in palm oil production may lead to inventory accumulation [31]. - Investment advice: Consider buying put options, and beware of the impact of geopolitical factors on the vegetable oil market [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Port steam coal inventories are increasing, and the market has weak demand [32]. - Coal prices have slightly rebounded, and the demand for power plants has seasonally recovered [33]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to weather and port transaction conditions [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - From January to May, power grid project investment reached 204 billion yuan [33]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating, with weak demand in the off - season and limited price rebound [33]. - Investment advice: Expect iron ore prices to remain weak [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The by - product market of corn starch has a complex situation, with some prices stable and others showing signs of decline [35]. - Investment advice: Observe the market, as the CS - C spread is complex [35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices in Northeast China have risen [36]. - Investment advice: Observe old - crop contracts, and consider shorting new - crop contracts at high prices [36]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia cancelled anti - dumping duties on steel from South Korea and Vietnam [36]. - Five major construction central enterprises' new contract value in the first five months exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan [37]. - Steel prices are oscillating, with weak demand in the off - season and uncertain future trends [37]. - Investment advice: Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and consider hedging on price rebounds [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Silicon wafer prices are falling, and the polysilicon market has weak demand [39][40]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term shorting and long - term going long, and pay attention to the 08 - 09 positive spread opportunity [41]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The number of operating 97 - high - silicon factories has decreased [42]. - Industrial silicon production is increasing, with weak demand and expected price oscillations at a low level [42]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting on price rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes [43]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a discount, and lead ingot inventory has decreased [44][45]. - Lead supply may decrease marginally, and demand is in the off - season [45]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider buying on dips [46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a discount, and zinc ingot inventory has decreased [47]. - Zinc prices are oscillating, with an expected oversupply in the fundamentals [47]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting at high prices, and pay attention to spread trading opportunities [48]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - An Indonesian nickel - iron plant may be acquired [49][50]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to weak demand and expected oversupply [51]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [51]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhuhai Guanyu received a nomination notice from Dongfeng Nissan [52]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are under pressure, and new positions are increasing [52]. - Investment advice: Do not chase short positions, consider partial profit - taking for old short positions, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 positive spread opportunity [53]. 3.2.14 Energy - Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG has increased [55]. - The market's risk premium for LPG is expected to decline [56]. - Investment advice: Expect the LPG futures price to decline [57]. 3.2.15 Energy - Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran agreed to a cease - fire, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices [58]. - Investment advice: Oil prices will give back the risk premium [59]. 3.2.16 Energy - Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is weakening, with general sales [60]. - Supply is stable, and demand is weak [61][62]. - Investment advice: The downside space of the caustic soda futures is limited [63]. 3.2.17 Energy - Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has partially stopped falling and rebounded [64]. - Investment advice: The price increase of pulp futures is expected to be limited [64]. 3.2.18 Energy - Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is fluctuating slightly [65]. - Investment advice: The impact of the Middle - East geopolitical issue on PVC prices is expected to be limited [65]. 3.2.19 Energy - Chemicals (PX) - PX prices have slightly increased, and the de - stocking pattern continues [66][67]. - Investment advice: Expect PX prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [68]. 3.2.20 Energy - Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices have decreased, and the basis has weakened [69]. - PTA supply and demand are generally balanced, with a slightly positive outlook [70]. - Investment advice: Expect PTA prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [71]. 3.2.21 Energy - Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventories have decreased [72]. - Asphalt prices are affected by oil prices and demand, with an upward risk [72]. - Investment advice: Expect asphalt prices to oscillate upward [73]. 3.2.22 Energy - Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a weak oscillation [74]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting soda ash at high prices in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy - Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market have slightly adjusted [75]. - With the arrival of the off - season, glass demand will decline, and prices may fall [76]. - Investment advice: The spot price of float glass may decline, and the futures price may be affected by market sentiment [76]. 3.2.24 Energy - Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory quotes are mostly stable, with some transactions [77][79]. - Bottle chip production is expected to decrease in July, alleviating supply pressure [79]. - Investment advice: Consider expanding the processing margin of bottle chips on dips and beware of raw material price fluctuations [79]. 3.2.25 Energy - Chemicals (Styrene) - Pure benzene port inventory has increased [80]. - Styrene supply is recovering, and demand is relatively stable [82]. - Investment advice: Styrene's own driving force is limited, and pay attention to the supply and demand of pure benzene and oil price fluctuations [82]. 3.2.26 Energy - Chemicals (Urea) - The agricultural sector is deploying soybean and oilseed production work [83]. - Urea prices in the domestic market are weakening, with different supply situations in different regions [84]. - Investment advice: The urea futures market may change from a rebound to a weak consolidation, affected by geopolitical and export policies [85].

中东紧张局势继续牵引市场。美国日前对伊朗境内三处核设施发动空袭，引发市场对中东能源供应可能 中断的担忧。随后，伊朗对位于卡塔尔和伊拉克的美军基地发动导弹袭击。美国总统特朗普23日证实， 伊朗当天对美国位于卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发动导弹袭击，并表示伊朗方面提前通知了美方，袭击未 造成人员伤亡。 国际能源信息服务机构雷斯塔能源公司高级副总裁乔治•莱昂表示，此次伊朗实施的报复可能意味着局 势暂时降温，市场情绪由紧张转向观望。 转自：新华财经 美国参议院日前确认米歇尔·鲍曼担任美联储负责监管事务的副主席。她在周一表示，"若通胀压力持续 受控，我将支持在下次会议上调降政策利率，使其更接近中性水平，并维持健康的劳动力市场。与此同 时，随着政府政策、经济和金融市场的持续演变，我将继续密切关注经济状况。" 新华财经北京6月24日电 美国国债价格周一（6月23日）普遍上涨，当天原油期货价格大跌超过7%，缓 解了市场对通胀的担忧。美联储理事、负责监管的副主席鲍曼周一表示，如果通胀压力得到控制，将支 持在7月开始降息。 鲍曼是第二位在近期表态支持于7月降息的美联储官员。美联储理事沃勒曾于上周五表示，"我认为我们 有空间降息，然后我 ...

Group 1 - The State Council of China has issued regulations for internet platform companies regarding tax information reporting, aiming to enhance tax service efficiency and protect taxpayer rights [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with nine other departments, has released a plan for the high-quality development of the gold industry, targeting a 5%-10% increase in gold resource volume and over 5% growth in gold and silver production by 2027 [2] - The China Insurance Asset Management Association has conducted a survey indicating that 63% of institutions plan to increase their investment in Hong Kong stocks by 2025, primarily through the Stock Connect program [2] - The National Energy Administration reported that as of May, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 361 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, with solar power capacity growing by 56.9% [2] - Hillhouse Capital has shown interest in acquiring Starbucks' China business during a recent management roadshow [2] Group 2 - Yachuang Electronics announced plans to purchase a 37.0337% stake in Shanghai Analog for 298 million yuan to enhance its analog chip business [3] - Zhongda An announced that its controlling shareholder is planning to issue shares to specific investors, which will lead to a change in control, resulting in the stock being suspended [3] - Cambrian announced an adjustment to its share repurchase price cap to no more than 818.87 yuan per share [4] - WuXi AppTec has completed a 1 billion yuan share repurchase and plans to cancel the shares [4] - Inspur Information plans to repurchase shares worth 200 million to 300 million yuan to reduce its registered capital [4]

美国利率期货市场消化的未来两年放松货币政策的步伐快于美联储上周公布的最新预测，在美国对伊朗 发动军事打击给经济增长构成又一威胁后，这种观点得到了巩固。追踪有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)的 期货交易员押注，美联储在2026年降息的幅度将超过上周三其政策会议结束时公布的预测。 ...