美国关税大棒周五落地！哪些商品受影响最大？市场如何反应？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The non - US copper market has low inventory, and the domestic copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term price lacks an obvious upward driver. Zinc has an increase in supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak. The aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short - sold, and the fundamentals of tin are weak. Lead shows a range - bound trend, and nickel and stainless steel are in a weak situation [3][4][5][6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Part One: Logic of Non - ferrous Metals Operation and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector adjusts and falls after taking profits in the domestic anti - involution stage. The market focuses on trade negotiations and domestic policies. The US - EU trade agreement boosts the US dollar, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals [11] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: It is expected to stop falling and rebound, with support at 78000 - 79000 and pressure at 80000 - 82000. Suggested to buy at low prices [13] - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 21600 - 21800 and pressure at 22800 - 23100. Suggested to short at high prices [13] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is expected to be weakly volatile. Suggested short - selling for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [13][14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 250000 - 255000 and pressure at 270000 - 290000. Suggested short - selling [14] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, with support at 16600 - 16800 and pressure at 17200 - 17400. Suggested to buy at low prices [14][15] - **Nickel**: It is expected to be bearish, with support at 115000 - 116000 and pressure at 122000 - 123000. Suggested to short at high prices [15] - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to be weakly volatile, with support at 12300 - 12400 and pressure at 12800 - 13000. Suggested to short at high prices [15] 2. Part Two: Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market - The closing prices and daily changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are presented [16] 3. Part Three: Position Analysis of Non - ferrous Metals - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector includes information on net long and short positions, their changes, and influencing factors for different varieties [18] 4. Part Four: Spot Market of Non - ferrous Metals - The spot prices and daily changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [19][21] 5. Part Five: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [22][26][28][33][39][41][46][52] 6. Part Six: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel are presented, including ratio changes, basis, and spread trends [54][56][59][62][66][69][70] 7. Part Seven: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of copper, zinc, and aluminum are presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [72][73][75]

Core Insights - The US consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July, but the increase was below market expectations [1] - The current conditions index, reflecting consumer assessments of the business and labor market, decreased to 131.5, down 1.5 from June [1] - The expectations index, which gauges short-term outlooks on income, business, and labor market conditions, increased to 74.4, up 4.5 from June [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Trends - The consumer confidence index has stabilized since May but remains lower than the same period last year [2] - The increase in consumer confidence was primarily driven by individuals aged 35 and above, with all income groups above $15,000 seeing an increase, except for those earning below $15,000 [1] - 18.9% of consumers reported difficulty in finding jobs, marking the lowest assessment of the job market since March 2021 [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Tariffs are a major concern for consumers, with many fearing that they will lead to rising prices and inflation [2] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating signs of rising inflation [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has secured $1.9 trillion in investments and contracts from Japan and the EU, with Japan committing $550 billion and the EU signing a $750 billion energy deal along with $600 billion in investments [1][3] - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have led to significant financial strain on American companies, exemplified by General Motors reporting a quarterly loss of $1.1 billion and a net profit drop of over one-third [3][6] - The impact of tariffs is felt most acutely by low-income families, who are experiencing a loss in disposable income three times greater than that of wealthier households [5][6] Group 2 - The trade war has resulted in retaliatory tariffs from the EU and other countries, with the EU imposing a 25% tariff on American bourbon and motorcycles, and Brazil imposing a 50% tariff on U.S. machinery [5][6] - Companies are relocating their operations to avoid U.S. tariffs, with Apple moving production to India and Delta Electronics receiving numerous inquiries for operations in India [5][6] - The International Monetary Fund has warned that global GDP will shrink by 0.5% due to tariffs, with the U.S. expected to bear 60% of the economic burden [6][7] Group 3 - The inflationary pressures resulting from tariffs are leading to increased prices for everyday goods, as seen with Walmart and Amazon raising prices on essential items [5][6] - The agricultural sector is suffering, with coffee farmers facing 50% tariffs and unable to fulfill orders, leading to a significant downturn in production and sales [5][6] - The overall economic growth rate in the U.S. has slowed to around 1%, indicating a significant downturn in economic activity as a result of the trade policies [7][8]

Group 1 - The upcoming tariff deadline on August 1 could lead to increased tariffs on major trading partners, including Europe, Canada, and Mexico, which together account for nearly half of U.S. goods imports [1][2] - The potential impact of a 5% tariff increase on these partners could result in a negative shock to U.S. GDP that is twice as severe as previous measures against smaller economies [2] - The effects of tariffs are not limited to the macroeconomic level; different sectors in the U.S. stock market will experience varying impacts, necessitating continued attention to U.S. trade policy in investment strategies [2][5] Group 2 - The most likely economic scenario is "slowing growth with persistent inflation," with a probability of 40%, driven by the negative impacts of trade and immigration restrictions [4] - A second scenario of optimistic acceleration exists, with a 20% probability, contingent on easing trade and immigration policies or fiscal measures stimulating economic activity [4] - The third scenario, "economic slowdown triggered by trade," also holds a 40% probability, where further tariff increases could lead to a mild recession [4] Group 3 - In the fixed income market, an economic slowdown due to tariffs may lead to rising U.S. Treasury prices as the market anticipates a more dovish Federal Reserve [5] - The U.S. stock market faces a complex situation; while slowing growth may not disrupt the upward trend of the S&P index, different sectors will react differently to trade policies [5] - Industrial and capital goods companies may benefit from domestic investment despite rising costs, while consumer goods and retail sectors face greater pressure due to increased import costs and limited pricing power [5]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of U.S. tariffs under President Trump's policy is leading companies to pass increased costs onto American consumers, impacting their profit margins and operational space [2][3]. Group 1: Company Responses - Procter & Gamble (P&G) plans to raise prices on about 25% of its products in the U.S. market to offset new tariff costs, indicating a dual approach of cost-cutting and price increases [3][4]. - Other companies, such as EssilorLuxottica and Swatch, have also begun to implement price increases, with Swatch reporting a 5% price hike with no negative impact on sales [8]. Group 2: Market Impact - Despite a rise in U.S. stock indices driven by technology investments, many consumer goods companies are struggling, with P&G's stock down 19% since the tariff announcement [5]. - The anticipated total loss for companies due to tariffs is estimated to be between $7.1 billion and $8.3 billion for the year [6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are currently not feeling the effects of the tariff increases, but inflationary pressures are expected to emerge once company inventories are depleted, likely in Q4 or early next year [7]. - There is a cautious attitude among North American consumers towards price increases, which may affect sales for major brands [5].

美联储内部分歧加剧，市场关注9月降息的可能性。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos近日发表文章称，美联储官员们虽然同意最终 需要恢复降息，但本周不会行动，他们对何时恢复降息存在严重分歧。 文章认为，目前，美联储内部已经分化为三个不同的阵营：一派想马上降息，担心劳动力市场恶化；中 间派想等更多数据确认关税影响温和；另一派则更谨慎，等看到明显经济疲软才行动。 这种内部分歧源于关税威胁引发通胀担忧，导致美联储此前屡屡暂停降息。 然而，随着关税传导的价格上涨幅度比预期温和，而就业市场显现疲软迹象，叠加特朗普的施压，联储 内部的分歧趋于复杂。 文章指出，焦点是周三FOMC会后鲍威尔在记者会上有关9月是否降息的暗示。 三大阵营的政策分歧日趋明显 按照Timiraos的说法，美联储内部的分化可以清晰地划分为三个主要阵营：中间的谨慎派、急于降息的 少数派，以及更保守的等待派。 中间派的代表包括旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly），她在爱达荷州的一次会议上表示： "通胀前景一直过于不稳定，无法证明先发制人地降息以应对经济疲软是合理的。" 但她同时指出，由于利率仍处于紧缩水平，"你不能永 ...

Trade Negotiations - US and China are expected to extend the trade truce for another three months, agreeing not to impose additional tariffs or escalate the trade war [1] - The extension involves the reinstatement of the suspended 24% portion of US tariffs and corresponding Chinese countermeasures for 90 days [1] - Trade teams will maintain close communication [1] Key Issues - Discussions will focus on major sticking points, such as US concerns about China's excess industrial capacity [1] - China is expected to pressure the US regarding fentanyl tariffs [1]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook, indicating that the global economy maintains a fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainties [1] - Compared to the April forecast, the IMF has slightly upgraded the global growth outlook [2] Growth Projections - The global economic growth is expected to reach 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the April forecast, but lower than the 3.3% in 2024 and the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% [3] - The upgrade in the 2025 forecast is broad-based, attributed to strong preemptive actions in international trade, lower global effective tariff rates, and improved global financial conditions [3] Advanced Economies - For advanced economies, growth is projected at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 [4] - In the United States, the growth rate is expected to be 1.9% in 2025, up by 0.1 percentage points from the April forecast, with a slight increase to 2.0% in 2026 [4] - The Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with the 2025 forecast raised by 0.2 percentage points mainly due to strong GDP growth in Ireland [4] Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026 [5] - China's growth forecast for 2025 has been raised by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and significant reductions in US-China tariffs [5] - India's growth is projected at 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026, slightly higher than previous forecasts due to a more favorable external environment [6] Regional Growth Expectations - The Middle East and Central Asia are expected to see growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026 [7] - Sub-Saharan Africa's growth is projected at 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026 [8] - Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see a decline to 2.2% in 2025, with a recovery to 2.4% in 2026 [9] Inflation and Trade - Global inflation is expected to continue declining, with an overall rate projected at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [12] - The IMF has adjusted the global trade volume forecast upward by 0.9 percentage points for 2025, while lowering the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points [11] Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East or Ukraine, may pose new supply shocks to the global economy, potentially leading to increased commodity prices and inflationary pressures [14]

李成钢说，根据中美双方共识，双方将继续推动美方已暂停的对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期。 另外，7月，美国消费者信心上升，人们对整体经济和就业市场前景的担忧有所缓解。尽管职位空缺下降，但仍处于表明劳动力需求 总体稳定的水平。 BMO资本市场的Ian Lyngen表示："整体来看，这是一组喜忧参半的数据，并未对市场走势或宏观叙事构成实质性挑战。" 7月29日晚间，连续创下新高的美股，今天盘中突然直线跳水，不过随后上演深"V"走势。 道指跌约200点，纳指开盘一度涨超0.5%，随后跌约0.1%，标普500指数跌0.15%。 消息面上，中美结束在斯德哥尔摩的第二天贸易谈判。 随后，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢7月29日说，在过去一天半时间里，中美双方经贸团队根据两国元首6月5日通话 共识，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，就彼此关注的重大议题进行了深入、坦诚、建设性的交流。 市场普遍预计，美联储将在周三维持利率不变，而增长和通胀数据将进一步强化经济保持强劲的印象。本周市场还将迎来一次重要考 验——四大科技巨头将在两天内集中公布财报。 eToro的Bret Kenwell表示："如果这些事件也传递出 ...