Group 1 - Wang Jianlin is selling 48 Wanda Plazas to a consortium including Taikang Zhuhai, Gaohe Fengde, Tencent, JD Pinduoduo, and Sunshine Insurance, indicating a significant asset divestment [1] - The rental yield of Wanda Plazas has decreased from 8.3% in 2015 to 5.1% in 2024, reflecting the downturn in China's commercial real estate market and the impact of e-commerce [3] - High-net-worth individuals are diversifying their investments away from domestic real estate, with a shift towards global asset allocation, as highlighted by the increasing overseas asset allocation ratio reaching 28% in 2024, up 12 percentage points from previous years [9][7] Group 2 - Tencent's involvement in acquiring Wanda Plazas through its affiliated companies suggests a strategic move to integrate offline retail with online platforms, emphasizing the value of foot traffic in physical stores [5] - The trend among wealthy individuals is moving towards flexible and globally diversified assets, moving away from traditional real estate investments [7] - The focus on tax planning is increasing among high-net-worth individuals, with investment immigration becoming a popular method for optimizing global tax structures [11] Group 3 - The demand for investment immigration is rising, with a 47% year-on-year increase in applications, primarily driven by concerns for children's education and family safety [13] - The sale of Wanda Plazas reflects a broader reassessment of wealth transfer strategies among China's affluent, as the next generations face global competition [15]

Core Insights - Investor sentiment towards Chinese assets is gradually improving, particularly in sectors like internet and artificial intelligence, leading to a noticeable rebound in certain Chinese stocks and related thematic funds since the beginning of the year [1][3] - Institutional investors are reassessing the weight of Chinese assets in their global allocations, especially in the context of high valuations in the US stock market, sustained high interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3] - The rise of artificial intelligence is reshaping the global investment landscape, with a rapid expansion of the AI industry chain driving a new round of capital reallocation [1][8] Company Overview - KraneShares was founded approximately 12 years ago by Jonathan Krane, who aimed to educate global institutional investors about investing in China [2] Performance of KWEB - KWEB, a flagship ETF of KraneShares, has seen a 20% increase since the beginning of the year, attributed to the recognition of undervalued Chinese assets and renewed confidence in China's growth prospects [3][4] - Major contributors to KWEB's performance include leading companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and NetEase, with recovery in gaming and advertising sectors, as well as strong AI-related spending [4] Misconceptions about Chinese Investments - A significant misconception among US investors is the neglect of investment opportunities in China due to market volatility over the past three years [5] - Hedge funds have been among the first to recognize the potential in the Chinese market, contrasting with pension funds that may still be influenced by political factors [5] Risks of Chinese Stocks - The risk of delisting for Chinese stocks has been a topic of discussion for years, but ongoing cooperation in audit regulation has strengthened global investor confidence [7] - KraneShares has proactively managed risks by shifting most of KWEB's holdings to the Hong Kong market, which has seen improving liquidity and investor recognition [7] AI-Themed Investment Strategy - KraneShares has launched an AI-themed ETF, AGIX, which focuses on identifying core companies in the AI industry and includes investments in both public and private companies [8][9] - AGIX aims to provide a comprehensive investment channel in the AI sector, with about 50% of its holdings being quality stocks not included in the Nasdaq 100 index [8][9] Global Investor Sentiment - Global institutional investors are increasingly considering risk diversification in their portfolios, moving away from a heavy concentration in US stocks [12] - There is a trend towards reallocating investments within the US market to achieve diversification while maintaining focus on AI growth [12] Emerging Markets for AI - While the US remains a primary focus for AI investments, other regions like Germany, the Netherlands, and Canada are also emerging as significant players in the AI space [13][14] - Many promising AI companies outside the Nasdaq 100 index are being integrated into investment portfolios, highlighting the need for detailed selection of future trend representatives [14]

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing significant shifts in interest rates, with various central banks adopting different monetary policies, leading to a complex environment for high-net-worth families and their asset allocation strategies [3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes by Country - China has initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, lowering the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points to 3.0% and the five-year LPR by 10 basis points to 3.5%, marking the first reduction since October 2024 [4]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, prioritizing inflation control despite some easing in inflation rates [5]. - The Bank of England has cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, the first reduction since 2023, amidst internal disagreements on the extent of the cut [7]. - Australia has also reduced its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, the lowest since May 2023, in response to slowing economic growth and inflation returning to target [8]. Group 2: Implications for Family Offices - The divergence in global interest rates poses dual challenges of currency fluctuations and interest rate differentials for family asset allocation strategies [9]. - Traditional asset allocation frameworks, heavily reliant on a stable interest rate environment, are being reassessed as families consider the impact of rapidly declining rates on cash flow predictions and investment returns [10]. - There is a growing interest in alternative assets such as gold, strategic resource funds, and sovereign digital currencies as families seek to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks [11]. Group 3: Future Considerations for Wealth Management - Family offices are shifting their focus from maximizing returns to ensuring structural stability and resilience across economic cycles, prompting a reevaluation of their asset structures [12]. - The need for a robust "asset immune system" is emphasized, as families aim to navigate the complexities of fluctuating interest rates and geopolitical tensions [13].

Group 1 - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound changes, and the complexity of geopolitical issues is increasing, making effective asset allocation and seizing unique opportunities in the Chinese market a focal point for investors [1][3] - The first Global Asset Management Forum, hosted by China Fund News, took place in Shenzhen, focusing on "Global Asset Allocation and Chinese Opportunities," with discussions led by top investment research experts and asset management leaders [1][3] Group 2 - Experts believe that despite the complex global environment, there are opportunities, particularly in the Chinese market, which requires a long-term perspective to navigate market volatility and ignore "noise" [3][15] - Tariffs pose challenges to the global investment environment, but companies with strong domestic supply chains and pricing power can turn these challenges into opportunities [3][19] Group 3 - Allianz Fund's General Manager suggests that mutual recognition funds, ETF connectivity, and QDII funds are good tools for diversifying portfolios for mainland investors [5] - Standard Chartered Bank's Chief Investment Officer encourages overseas clients to focus on specific opportunities in China, such as undervalued state-owned enterprises listed in Hong Kong that offer high dividends [7] Group 4 - UBS Wealth Management emphasizes the importance of global investment diversification, including investments in China, noting that the renminbi is one of the most stable currencies among emerging markets [9] - Fidelity International highlights the attractiveness of the Chinese market due to relatively low valuations, stabilization in real estate and consumption, and significant dividend and earnings growth potential in certain stocks [11] Group 5 - The CEO of Swiss Partners Asset Management observes a gradual trend of diversifying assets away from the U.S., with European investors particularly affected by U.S. policies, leading them to consider opportunities outside the U.S. [13] - New trends, including advancements in AI and technology, present significant potential for economies like China, which requires a long-term perspective to navigate volatility [15][17] Group 6 - The discussion on supply chain adjustments highlights the need for companies to diversify their end markets and adapt to tariff-related uncertainties, with regional logistics companies showing recovery in demand [18][19] - Recommendations for asset allocation include distinguishing between short-term liquidity needs and long-term investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of diversification [20] Group 7 - The current environment presents a favorable time to invest in Chinese stocks, which are relatively undervalued with a PE ratio of approximately 12, and international investors are currently underweight in Chinese equities [21][24] - The trend of capital flowing from U.S. assets to non-U.S. assets is influenced by multiple factors, including the performance of the dollar and U.S. assets [22][23] Group 8 - The Greater Bay Area is recognized as a crucial engine for China's economic development, providing global investors with a window to access the Chinese market [25][26] - The mutual recognition mechanism and cross-border wealth management initiatives are seen as significant opportunities for investors to optimize their asset allocations [25][26] Group 9 - Common misconceptions among global clients regarding the Chinese market include concerns about consumption recovery and the sustainability of government stimulus measures [27][29] - The importance of corporate governance and environmental considerations in Chinese companies has improved, aligning more closely with international standards [28][29]

Core Insights - The trend of mainland insurance agents moving to Hong Kong is driven by the strong demand from mainland residents for global asset allocation and the unique insurance products available in Hong Kong [1][5][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for Hong Kong insurance products from mainland residents is significant, with new life insurance premiums reaching HKD 59 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of over 27 times [5] - The insurance market in Hong Kong is characterized by high penetration rates, with the total gross premium expected to reach HKD 637.8 billion in 2024, making it the highest globally in terms of insurance depth [6] - The regulatory environment in Hong Kong is robust, ensuring that all insurance salespersons are licensed and adhere to ethical standards, which enhances market confidence [6][7] Group 2: Talent Migration - Many mainland agents, like Hu Rongping, have successfully transitioned to the Hong Kong insurance market, often through talent schemes that facilitate residency and professional licensing [2][3] - The influx of high-educated talent from mainland China has been encouraged by policies such as the High Talent Scheme, which has attracted skilled professionals to the Hong Kong insurance sector [2][3] Group 3: Product Preferences - High-net-worth individuals are particularly attracted to two types of insurance products in Hong Kong: savings and dividend insurance, which offer advantages in interest rates and inheritance, and critical illness insurance, which provides better coverage and claim conditions [5] - The diverse backgrounds of insurance agents in Hong Kong contribute to a rich service offering, catering to various client needs [3] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - Recent initiatives by regulatory bodies aim to facilitate cross-border insurance business, enhancing service levels for both mainland and Hong Kong residents [8] - The Hong Kong Insurance Authority has introduced guidelines to regulate the demonstration of dividend policy returns, aiming to prevent overly optimistic sales practices that could mislead consumers [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of global asset allocation, particularly highlighting the potential of emerging markets as a counterbalance to the high valuations and risks associated with major tech stocks in developed markets [1][3]. - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its rating on emerging market stocks to "overweight," indicating a bullish stance and suggesting that these markets could provide significant investment opportunities, especially as they have underperformed developed markets by 40% over the past four years [1][2]. - Emerging market stocks have shown a notable recovery this year, with Indonesia's index rising by 10% and India's SENSEX30 increasing by 7%, outperforming the A500 index [1][2]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the forward P/E ratio for emerging market stocks is 12.4 times, significantly lower than the 19.1 times for developed markets, suggesting a potential for capital inflow as global investors currently have low exposure to these markets [1][2]. - The article points out that trade volumes within emerging markets have reached historical highs, with China exporting more to Southeast Asia than to the U.S., indicating a shift in trade dynamics [5]. - Specific opportunities are identified in markets like India, which has a large untapped mobile data user base, and Indonesia, where the digital economy is poised for significant growth due to its geographical characteristics [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy path has become a focal point for global markets, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut in 2025 being challenged by rising inflation risks and a resilient labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. - Factors contributing to inflation include rising energy prices, localized supply chain tensions, and sticky wage growth in the labor market [3]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that if inflation remains above the 2% target, the timeline for rate cuts could be pushed back to 2026 [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - A delay in rate cuts could enhance the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets, leading to a negative correlation with capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks [3]. - Historical data shows that during the Fed's rate hike cycle in 2022, capital outflows from Hong Kong stocks exceeded 10 billion HKD in a single day, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 15% [3]. - Currently, despite Hong Kong stocks being undervalued, tightening external liquidity may offset this valuation advantage, as indicated by a decrease in the overweight ratio of global emerging market funds in Hong Kong stocks from 5.2% to 3.1% [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The company recommends focusing on defensive sectors such as utilities and telecommunications, which have stable cash flows and are less impacted by external liquidity shocks [5]. - It is advised to use currency hedging tools, such as USD/HKD forward contracts or offshore RMB options, to mitigate the risk of asset depreciation due to a stronger dollar [5]. - Investors should closely monitor Fed officials' speeches and economic data releases to identify potential trading opportunities, particularly in response to employment and inflation data [5].

5月20日，来自欧美、中东及东南亚等全球十多个国家和地区的600多名中外嘉宾齐聚深圳，出席由中国 基金报主办的首届全球资产管理论坛系列活动。此次论坛围绕"大变局下的全球资产重估与配置"主题展 开探讨，是目前在深举办的国际化程度最高、行业影响力最大的资管盛会。 搭建全球资管沟通交流平台 以当下"小满"收获未来"大成" 当前，世界正经历百年未有之大变局：国际政治格局在重塑，全球经济秩序在调整，前沿技术的快速发 展正推动新一轮产业革命，社会思潮与文化正多元碰撞，全球治理体系正面临困境与革新。全球资产定 价逻辑应如何调整，资产管理行业运营应如何变革，方能在适应这一系列变化的同时，更好地服务实体 经济，并惠及广大投资者？ 作为紫荆文化集团旗下的财经传媒机构，中国基金报始终坚持专业化、国际化、平台化发展战略，致力 于搭建全球资产管理行业与中国地方政府、金融机构及企业沟通交流的平台。 本次论坛的成功举办，标志着中国资产管理行业在全球舞台的话语权进一步提升。通过深港联动、中外 机构对话，论坛不仅为境内外投资者搭建了政策解读与经验交流的平台，更向国际社会传递了中国坚持 高水平开放的决心，论坛成果将为大变局下的全球资管行业注入信 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 关税和地缘紧张局势缓解，权益上 涨黄金回调 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250509-20250516) 相关研究 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 大 类 资 产 配 置 告 - ⚫ ⚫ 全球资产价格回顾：本周关税和地缘紧张局势环境均有所缓和。5 月 10 日，巴基斯坦副总理达尔宣布 印巴停火；5 月 12 日，中美瑞士日内瓦谈判取得阶段性成果，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声 明》，宣布暂停部分对 ...

Core Insights - Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, has significantly reduced its holdings in technology stocks while increasing its investment in gold ETFs, indicating a strategic shift in asset allocation [1][3][4] Group 1: Investment Strategy - In the first quarter, Bridgewater cut its position in the S&P 500 ETF by nearly 60%, reducing its stake from 22% to 8.7% [3] - Major technology stocks were heavily reduced: Google A shares by 16%, Nvidia by 18.74%, and Meta by 31% [3] - However, Bridgewater increased its positions in Microsoft and Amazon, suggesting a selective approach rather than a blanket bearish stance on technology [3] Group 2: Gold Investment - Bridgewater has made gold ETFs a significant part of its portfolio, purchasing 110,600 shares of SPDR Gold ETF, making it the sixth-largest holding [3][4] - Ray Dalio stated that gold is the only asset that can hedge against sovereign currency risks, with the correlation between gold and the S&P 500 dropping to -0.18, indicating gold's potential as a safe haven during stock market downturns [3][4] Group 3: Market Conditions - The fund's actions are influenced by rising interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, which typically negatively impacts high-valuation technology stocks [4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Asia, are also contributing to a cautious investment environment, prompting global central banks to buy 228 tons of gold in the first quarter, 34% above the five-year average [4] Group 4: Focus on Chinese Assets - While reducing exposure to U.S. tech stocks, Bridgewater has aggressively increased its holdings in Chinese companies, notably Alibaba, which saw an increase from 255,000 shares to 5.66 million shares, valued at $748 million [4] - This strategy reflects a belief in the potential of Chinese assets to provide a counterbalance to risks in U.S. markets [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to be cautious with technology stocks, particularly those with inflated valuations, while considering opportunities in established companies like Microsoft and Apple [5] - A recommendation is made to allocate a portion of investments to gold, given its long-term support from Fed rate expectations and geopolitical risks [5] - Chinese assets are highlighted as having significant growth potential, particularly in e-commerce and cloud computing, while cautioning against companies with compliance risks [5]