交易员加大了对英国央行降息的押注，预计今年还会再降息50个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Traders are increasing their bets on an 80% probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in August, with expectations of an additional 50 basis points reduction this year [1] Group 1 - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England has risen significantly, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards monetary easing [1] - The anticipated reduction in interest rates reflects concerns over economic conditions and the need for supportive monetary policy [1]

英国至6月19日英国央行MPC投票赞成降息 3，预期2，前值7。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has strengthened against the Norwegian Krone by 1.5% to 11.621 following an unexpected interest rate cut by the Norwegian central bank [1] Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank's decision to cut interest rates was unexpected, leading to significant market reactions [1] - The increase in the Euro's value against the Norwegian Krone indicates a shift in investor sentiment and currency dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian central bank has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, contrary to market expectations of no change, leading to a significant appreciation of the US dollar against the Norwegian krone, peaking at 10.11 [1] Group 1 - The interest rate cut by the Norwegian central bank is a notable shift in monetary policy, indicating a response to economic conditions [1] - The market had anticipated that the interest rates would remain unchanged, highlighting a divergence between market expectations and actual policy decisions [1] - The US dollar's substantial rise against the Norwegian krone reflects market reactions to the interest rate change, suggesting increased demand for USD [1]

智通财经6月19日电，挪威央行降息25个基点至4.25%，市场预期维持不变。 ...

菲律宾央行降息25个基点 菲律宾至6月19日央行政策利率 5.25%，预期5.25%，前值5.50%。 ...

交易员略微减少了英国央行降息的押注，预计到年底将降息41个基点。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Tariff policies have not pushed up inflation at the production and consumption ends, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Coupled with continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to go long on dips [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 780.36 yuan/gram, with a change of 10.50 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 21,494.00, and the open interest was 223,738.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 8,793.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 23.00 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 805,092.00, and the open interest was 3,525,006.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,452.60 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 46.20 US dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 224,107.00, and the open interest was 322,266.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 36.37 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.57 US dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 72,692.00, and the open interest was 93,632.00 [1]. 2. Important Information - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Iran and Israel have engaged in continuous mutual attacks, with the conflict expanding to oil and gas facilities. Iran is considering whether to block the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - **Trade Agreements**: The UK Prime Minister said there are no "obstacles" to finalizing a US-UK trade agreement. The US and Japan agreed to accelerate ministerial consultations to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, and the US and Vietnam are close to reaching a framework trade agreement [1]. - **Economic Data**: In May, the US added 139,000 non-farm payrolls, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. The annual average hourly wage rate was 3.9%, higher than expected and the previous value. In June, the US consumer inflation rate was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value [1]. 3. Central Bank Policies - **Federal Reserve**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December due to the lack of inflation rebound caused by tariff policies [1]. - **European Central Bank**: In June, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects one more rate cut by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: In May, the BoE cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points, and the market expects two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: In January, the BoJ raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects a rate hike around July [1]. 4. Trading Strategies Investors are advised to go long on dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, focus on the support level around 31 - 34 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,300 - 8,500 and the resistance level around 9,500 - 10,000 [1].

英国GDP数据公布后，交易员增加了对英国央行降息的押注，预计今年将降息52个基点。 ...