Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply - demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived. The current urea valuation is relatively low, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - adjustment. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream demand is mainly for cautious restocking at low prices. Possible future driving factors include the renovation of old chemical industry equipment on the supply side and new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1623 yuan/ton on November 3, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from October 31 [1]. - UR05 closed at 1709 yuan/ton on November 3, up 6 yuan (0.35%) from October 31 [1]. - UR09 closed at 1742 yuan/ton on November 3, up 6 yuan (0.35%) from October 31 [1]. Domestic Spot Prices - In Shandong, the small - particle urea spot price was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 30 yuan (-1.89%) from October 31 [1]. - In Shanxi, it was 1450 yuan/ton on November 3, down 10 yuan (-0.68%) from October 31 [1]. - In Henan, it was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 20 yuan (-1.27%) from October 31 [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 149 yuan/ton on November 3, down 36 yuan from October 31 [1]. - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 86 yuan/ton on November 3, down 8 yuan from October 31 [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite coal price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. - The melamine price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1618 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1629 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1623 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1617 yuan/ton. The持仓量 of 2601 was 269,753 hands [1]. Trading Strategy Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather conditions, while the industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1560 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -63, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), also bearish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, suggesting a bearish trend. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is also bearish. Considering the weak industrial demand, the rebound in agricultural demand, the strong international urea price, and the significant domestic oversupply, the UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Likely to Rise**: The international price of urea is strong, and the agricultural demand is rebounding [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic market is oversupplied [6]. - **Main Logic**: The international price and the marginal change in domestic demand are the main factors influencing the market [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Price** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1560 (-20), the Shandong spot price is 1560 (-30), and the Henan spot price is 1560 (unchanged). The FOB China price is 2686 [5][7]. | | **Futures Price** | The price of the UR01 contract is 1623 (-2), the UR05 contract is 1709 (+6), and the UR09 contract is 1742 (+6). The UR2601 contract basis is -63, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.0% [5][7]. | Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), including 1.554 million tons in factory inventory and 110,000 tons in port inventory [5][7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after reaching a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. Short - term upward drivers are insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking. Future possible drivers include the renovation of old chemical devices on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1625 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.12%); UR09 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.06%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Shandong, it was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.63%); in Hebei, it was 1610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.62%); in Northeast China, it remained at 1610 yuan/ton (0.00%); in Jiangsu, it was 1580 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.63%); in Henan, it remained at 1580 yuan/ton (0.00%) [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. b. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 113 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 remained at - 78 yuan/ton [1]. c. Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1627 yuan/ton, the highest was 1637 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1623 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1625 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1629 yuan/ton. The position was 264103 lots [1]. d. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Intertemporal: On hold [3] - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot trading weakened after the price increase this week following the simultaneous rise in futures and spot prices last week. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, awaiting a driving force. In the medium to long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. The export sentiment still affects urea, and attention should be paid to the subsequent export dynamics and the procurement rhythm in Northeast China and the national off-season storage rhythm [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On October 30, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,627 yuan/ton (-17). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,580 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,590 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was -27 yuan/ton (+17), in Henan was -47 yuan/ton (+17), and in Jiangsu was -37 yuan/ton (+17) [1] Urea Production - As of October 30, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.32% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5543 million tons (-75,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons (-100,000 tons) [1] Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 872 yuan/ton (+10) [1] Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Urea exports in September were 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1, with the bid closing on October 15 and the offer validity period until October 30. The latest shipping date is December 10, and a total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was 402 US dollars/ton on the west coast and 395 US dollars/ton on the east coast [2] Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - As of October 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04% (+3.33%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98% (+1.68%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.53 days (+0.12) [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The national high inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased this week [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the short - term market is expected to warm up. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is - 47, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish. The short - term price of the urea main contract is expected to warm up, and it is predicted that UR will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production. The bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate decline from high levels, comprehensive inventory slightly drops. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak, with falling operating rates for compound fertilizers and melamine. Export volume increases with a large but decreasing price difference. Domestic market is oversupplied, but short - term market may warm up. Spot price of delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2601 contract basis is - 47, premium/discount ratio is - 3.0%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: Short - term price of the urea main contract is expected to warm up, and it is predicted that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Strong international prices, increasing exports, short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Bearish**: Domestic oversupply [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | Spot price of delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1600 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1580 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2662 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | UR01 contract price is 1627 (- 17), UR05 contract price is 1705 (- 12), UR09 contract price is 1735 (- 12), UR2601 contract basis is - 47, premium/discount ratio is - 3.0% [4][6]. | | **Inventory** | UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), warehouse receipts are 2970 (unchanged), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons (unchanged), UR port inventory is 210,000 tons (unchanged) [4][6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot trading weakened after the previous week's simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, awaiting a driving force. Some regions are in the process of autumn fertilization for agriculture, and the production of autumn fertilizers for compound fertilizers is coming to an end. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased as some previously shut - down devices have resumed production. Currently, the compound fertilizers for winter wheat are mainly for inventory clearance, and the sales sentiment has improved with the clearing weather. The operation of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased this week. Inner Mongolia still has the highest inventory in the country. In November, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast will gradually start production. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast and the national off - season storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still export windows. Urea exports reached 1.37 million tons in September, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. There are both container loading and departure at ports, and the inventory is being depleted. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was $402/ton on the west coast and $395/ton on the east coast. The current urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent urea export dynamics [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][8][13][16] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [24][25][28][30] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures involve urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [32][34][38][40][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Relevant figures are compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [49][50][51] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume [54][56][59]

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: October 30, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while the industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. Although the domestic urea market remains oversupplied, the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -64, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.1%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (-201,000), also bearish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. The main contract of urea is expected to rebound, with weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international urea prices, and increasing export volume. Despite the obvious domestic oversupply, the price is expected to rise in the short term, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and upward trend today [4]. Summary by Directory Urea Overview Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are declining from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis - The UR2601 contract basis is -64, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (-201,000), showing a bearish signal [4]. Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The main contract of urea is expected to rebound, with weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international urea prices, and increasing export volume. Despite the obvious domestic oversupply, the price is expected to rise in the short term, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and upward trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Bullish Factors - Strong international prices, increasing exports, and short-term decline in daily production [5]. Bearish Factors - Domestic oversupply [5]. Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), the price of Shandong spot is 1600 (-10), and the price of Henan spot is 1580 (0). The price of the FOB China is 2662. The price of the UR01 contract is 1644 (9), the price of the UR05 contract is 1717 (9), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (11). The basis of the UR01 contract is -64 (-19). The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Views - Supply: As of October 22, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 185,000 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuated around 180,000 - 190,000 tons. Based on the current daily output, the production in October is expected to be 5.85 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. With the increasing losses of gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has started to shut down. Near the winter gas - limiting season, the daily production of gas - fired plants is expected to decline next month. Fixed - bed and natural gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After reaching the bottom recently, the urea price has stabilized and rebounded, and the profit has also stabilized. There is cost support below the urea futures price [5][35]. - Demand: Since this month, affected by the National Day holiday, the factory operating load decreased significantly at the beginning of the month and then gradually increased. In the first half of the month, the changeable weather postponed the corn harvest and wheat sowing, and the terminal sales were weak. As time passed, after the agricultural demand started, the factory's finished - product inventory gradually decreased but was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Currently, the compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China are expected to gradually start production by late November. As the autumn fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start. The operating rate of melamine has also shown a seasonal decline, providing little support for urea. The real - estate data remains sluggish. It is expected that the operating load will rebound next month, but the overall increase is expected to be weaker than in previous years [5]. - Inventory: This month, the urea inventory has increased significantly. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the production remained high while the downstream procurement decreased, greatly increasing the in - factory inventory. On the other hand, the agricultural demand was postponed this month, leading to an increase in the in - factory inventory. However, as the agricultural demand progresses, the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, but it is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that the inventory will increase moderately. Overall, due to the losses of upstream urea plants and the approaching gas - limiting season, the production will fluctuate slightly downward and is expected to remain at around 180,000 tons. The in - factory inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and the supply is relatively loose. The domestic demand is difficult to absorb the high - level inventory. As the agricultural demand gradually ends, the subsequent downstream reserves and compound fertilizer production will be the main demand sources. The winter storage rhythm and changes in export policies will also affect the price trend. Currently, the market is oscillating at a low level [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The spot market was weak during the National Day holiday. After the futures market opened, the price dropped significantly and continued to decline. The futures price once reached a low of 1,578 yuan/ton and then started to consolidate at a low level. It rebounded in the second half of the month, but there was obvious upward pressure. It is expected to consolidate in the future. Attention should be paid to the impact of domestic macro - factors and possible changes in export policies [9]. Warehouse Receipts and Delivery - The validity period of urea warehouse and factory warehouse receipts is up to 4 months. Specifically, factory and warehouse standard warehouse receipts registered before the 15th trading day (inclusive) of February, June, and October each year should be fully cancelled before the 15th trading day (inclusive) of the same month. As of October 23, there were 5,484 registered urea warehouse receipts. Although approaching the cancellation date, the number is still at an absolute high level compared to the same period in history. Since 2025, the number of registered urea warehouse receipts has remained relatively high in recent years, reflecting the high - supply situation of urea to some extent [12]. Spot Price - Since October, the agricultural demand has been postponed due to frequent rainfall, resulting in weak terminal demand for urea and a continuous decline in price. Subsequently, supported by the cost side and with the start of agricultural demand and the end of the autumn fertilizer season, the price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. However, due to high supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of downstream fertilizer preparation and winter storage. The ex - factory prices in major regions fluctuate in the range of 1,500 - 1,600 yuan/ton. Looking forward to November, the end of the autumn fertilizer season, the spring production of compound fertilizers, off - season storage, and the rhythm of gas - fired plant restrictions will all affect the price movement. It is expected that the price will fluctuate narrowly after a rebound [19]. Basis - The urea basis has been in a state of contango. The pattern of loose supply and demand has suppressed the spot price. After the domestic demand is weak and the export demand is gradually digested, the decline in the spot price is greater than that of the futures price, resulting in the futures price being at a premium. Near the off - season storage period, if the basis is appropriate, hedging can be carried out on the futures market [23]. Spread - As of October 24, the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, weaker than - 2 yuan/ton at the end of last month. Recently, the urea futures contracts have gradually rebounded, but the upward and downward space for the 01 contract is limited, and the 05 contract is still far away. The spread is expected to fluctuate at a low level [27]. Supply - In September 2025, the urea production was 5.73867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 101,800 tons (1.8%). As of October 22, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 185,000 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuated around 180,000 - 190,000 tons. Based on the current daily output, the production in October is expected to be 5.85 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. With the increasing losses of gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has started to shut down. Near the winter gas - limiting season, the daily production of gas - fired plants is expected to decline next month [35]. - In November, Jiangsu Linggu and Hainan Fudao are scheduled for maintenance, each affecting a production of 2,500 tons. From 2026 to 2026, multiple enterprises are planning to put new production capacity into operation, with a total planned new capacity of 5.64 million tons/year [38]. Cost and Profit - As of October 24, the price of small - sized Jincheng anthracite was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The price of 5,500 - calorie thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton from the previous month. In October, the significant temperature difference between the north and south in China increased the demand for coal. As the temperature gradually dropped, the demand for coal for winter heating increased. The environmental protection restrictions on mines continued, and major conferences boosted macro - expectations, leading to a continuous increase in the thermal coal price and stronger urea production costs. At the same time, the price of liquefied natural gas increased during the month, intensifying the losses of gas - fired plants. As of October 24, the cost of fixed - bed production was 1,917 yuan/ton, the cost of water - coal slurry production was 1,502 yuan/ton, and the cost of natural gas production was 1,971 yuan/ton. According to Longzhong's data, the theoretical profit of the coal - fired fixed - bed process was - 347 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of the new coal - water slurry process was 58 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the gas - fired process was - 291 yuan/ton. Fixed - bed and natural gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After reaching the bottom recently, the urea price has stabilized and rebounded, and the profit has also stabilized. There is cost support below the urea futures price [42]. Inventory and Pending Orders - As of October 24, 2025, the in - factory urea inventory was 1.6302 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 457,600 tons. This month, the urea inventory increased significantly. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the production remained high while the downstream procurement decreased, greatly increasing the in - factory inventory. On the other hand, the agricultural demand was postponed this month, leading to an increase in the in - factory inventory. However, as the agricultural demand progresses, the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, but it is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that the inventory will increase moderately. The number of days of pending orders from enterprises first decreased and then increased during the month. As the autumn fertilizer season continued to progress, the pressure on enterprises for pending orders decreased [46]. Downstream Agricultural Demand - The agricultural demand for urea in the second half of the year and the fourth quarter is generally weaker than that in the first half of the year. Since the fourth quarter of this year, the weather has affected the corn harvest and wheat sowing, causing the agricultural demand to be scattered. As the autumn fertilizer season ends, the agricultural demand will become sporadic [49]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - Since this month, affected by the National Day holiday, the operating load of factories decreased significantly at the beginning of the month and then gradually increased. In the first half of the month, the changeable weather postponed the corn harvest and wheat sowing, and the terminal sales were weak. As time passed, after the agricultural demand started, the factory's finished - product inventory gradually decreased but was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Currently, the compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China are expected to gradually start production by late November. As the autumn fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start [57]. Compound Fertilizer Price - It is expected that the prices of raw materials such as sulfur, monoammonium phosphate, and ammonium chloride will rise, while the prices of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate will remain stable. The urea price has stopped falling and stabilized. The subsequent fertilizer - preparation period is expected to be based on the price fluctuations of raw materials for procurement. Currently, the production profit is lower than that of last year. Factories are mainly finishing the production of autumn fertilizers and will purchase and reserve at low prices in the future [62][63]. Other Industrial Demands - As of October 24, 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of melamine dropped to 48.3%. The rainfall in various parts of the country this month affected the progress of terminal industries. The operating rate of melamine has also shown a seasonal decline, providing little support for urea. The real - estate data remains sluggish. It is expected that the operating load will rebound next month, but the overall increase is expected to be weaker than in previous years [67]. International Urea Market - The international urea price first decreased and then increased this month. The continuous Indian tenders provided support for the market. European countries entered the market to purchase, and the sales situation of urea in North Africa improved, with prices rising in some regions. China has exported a large amount this month, and China's export situation will still affect the international urea price [72]. Indian Tenders - On October 17, it was learned that the price of the urea tender issued by RCF on October 15 had been announced, with the lowest bid price on the east coast being $395/ton CFR. So far, there has been no change in China's urea export quota. It is estimated that China's participation in this tender will be limited, and this Indian tender price is lower than market expectations, having limited impact on the domestic urea market and causing no obvious price fluctuations [76]. Export Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the urea port inventory was 210,000 tons. Since September, the port inventory has been continuously decreasing. As the export window period ended, the port inventory has gradually been digested and is now at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There is currently no official news about changes in urea export policies. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently characterized by relatively high factory inventories, ample supply, and weak domestic demand that struggles to absorb high - level inventories. With agricultural demand winding down, the market will focus on subsequent fertilizer stockpiling. In the short term, it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed flat today. The spot market prices have been rising since the weekend, with agricultural dealers actively stockpiling fertilizers but becoming more cautious after price increases. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with price increases mostly between 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Henan [1][4]. - The monthly average daily production calculated by Longzhong data is 18.50 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuates around 18 - 19 tons. Due to increased losses in gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down. With winter gas and production restrictions approaching, gas - fired daily production is expected to decline next month. Fixed - bed and natural - gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After hitting the bottom recently, urea prices have rebounded, and profits have stabilized, providing cost support for the futures [1]. - As time progresses, factory inventories are gradually being depleted after agricultural demand, but they are still slightly higher than the same period last year. Northeast compound fertilizer plants are expected to gradually start production in late November. As autumn fertilizer production nears completion, subsequent production is expected to gradually increase, and spring compound fertilizer production will gradually begin. Although the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, the inventory is still in an accumulation cycle, and it is expected to increase moderately. Overall, factory inventories are still higher year - on - year, supply is relatively abundant, and domestic demand is insufficient to absorb high - level inventories. Agricultural demand is gradually ending, and the focus of domestic demand is on subsequent fertilizer stockpiling. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate at a low level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1647 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, and finally closed flat at 1640 yuan/ton, forming a negative candlestick, with a change of + 0.00%. The trading volume was 281,954 lots, a decrease of 4384 lots [2]. - On October 27, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5288, a decrease of 119 compared to the previous trading day. Among them, Jilin Yuyuan decreased by 100, and Hengshui Cotton and Linen decreased by 18 [2]. - Spot: Since the weekend, spot market quotes have been rising continuously. Agricultural dealers are actively stockpiling fertilizers but are more cautious after price increases. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with price increases mostly between 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Henan [1][4]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Henan, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply data: According to Feiyitong data, on October 27, 2025, the national daily production of urea was 19.04 tons, a decrease of 0.58 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8].

| 尿素早评20251027: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 10月24日 10月23日 单位 | | (绝对值) | 变化值 | 英化值 (相对值) | | UR01 元/吨 1642.00 1638.00 山东 元/吨 1570.00 1550.00 山西 元/吨 1500.00 1480.00 | | | 4.00 20.00 20.00 | | | UR05 元/吨 1719.00 1710.00 尿素期货价格 | | | 9.00 | 0.24% 0.53% | | (收盘价) UR09 元/吨 1748.00 1740.00 | | | 8.00 | 0.46% | | | | | | 1.29% | | | 期现价格 | | | 1.35% | | 河南 元/吨 1570.00 1550.00 国内现货价格 | | | 20.00 | 1.29% | | (小顆粒) 元/吨 河北 1600.00 1590.00 | | | 10.00 | 0.63% | | 东北 元/吨 1600.00 1600.00 | | ...