尿素日报 | 2025-05-07 供应端：截至2025-05-06，企业产能利用率86.30%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为119.17 万吨（+12.67），港口样 本库存量为11.80 万吨（+0.10）。 需求端：截至2025-05-06，复合肥产能利用率40.60%（-2.94%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为75.16%（+9.74%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.47日（+2.35）。 尿素出口放松的消息扰动盘面。新增装置投产，淡季储备货源释放，尿素产量维持高位。部分地区返青肥结束， 农业处于空档期，而南方地区降水偏少，水稻用肥需求后延且分散，工业需求复合肥开工率大幅下降，整体需求 较为分散，下游整体接货积极性不高，订单预收情况转弱。上游库存累积，中长期来看供应压力仍维持高位。内 盘尿素价格走低，而国际尿素价格小幅走高，尿素内外盘价差走高。进出口窗口维持关闭，国内出口政策维持收 紧情况下，未来短期国内企业参与出口可能性较低，港口未有明显变化，整体港口库存偏平稳运行，出口量维持 低位，建议持续关注尿素出口相关政策。 策略 中性，预计尿素行情延续窄幅震荡为主。 风险 出口扰动，尿素偏强震荡 市场分析 价格 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lower support for urea is increasing [1] - In the short - term, before the "boots land", urea is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, and the 9 - 1 month spread remains in a positive spread pattern [4] - This week, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to show a downward pattern [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,881 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,868 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the trading volume was 405,017 lots, a decrease of 591,451 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 231,434 lots, an increase of 18,240 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,970 tons, an increase of 111 tons; the trading volume was 1.513204 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.164616 billion yuan. The Shandong regional basis was - 1, up 6; the Fengxi - disk basis was - 61, up 26; the Dongguang - disk basis was - 91, down 24; the UR09 - UR01 spread was 86, up 7 [2] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained unchanged, while others increased. For example, the price of Shandong Ruixing increased by 70 yuan to 1,840 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi Fengxi increased by 50 yuan to 1,820 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi regions also increased. The operating rate was 88.34%, up 0.39 percentage points, and the daily output was 203,720 tons, an increase of 900 tons [2] 2. Industry News - As of April 30, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.1267 million tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 11.90%. The industrial demand continued to weaken, agricultural fertilizer preparation was postponed, and the realization of high - price orders was slow, resulting in an increase in the inventory of some urea enterprises. However, due to the strong short - term speculation of traders, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to decline this week [3] - Fundamentally, the top - dressing demand in Northeast China and the summer fertilizer demand in Central China are being gradually released, and the grass - roots level is replenishing urea as a raw material for rigid demand. In addition, some off - market information has increased the short - term speculation of traders. Therefore, under the joint release of rigid demand and hoarding, the urea futures have risen sharply [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-4-30 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1800 | 1 0 | 09合约 | 1735 | -46 | 仓 单 | 4999 | 0 | | 山东现货 | 1800 | 1 0 | 基 差 | 6 5 | 5 6 | UR综合库存 | 118 2 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1820 | 0 | UR01 | 1712 | -30 | UR厂家库存 | 106 5 . | 0 0 . | | FOB中国 | 1948 | | UR05 | 1776 | -12 | UR港口库存 | 11 7 . | 0 0 . | | | | | UR09 | 1735 | -46 | | | | 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-4-28 • 主要逻辑：供应端高日产，需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1820 | -10 | 09合约 | 1757 | - 1 | 仓 单 | 5048 | 910 | | 山东现货 | 1830 | 0 | 基 差 | 6 3 | - 9 | UR综合库存 | 118 2 . | 16 4 . | | 河南现货 | 1820 | - 1 | UR01 | 1725 | - 1 | UR厂家库存 | 106 5 . | 15 9 . | | FOB中国 | 1946 | | UR05 | 1766 | 0 | UR港口库存 | 11 7 . | 0 5 . | | | | | UR09 | 1757 | - 1 | ...

制作日期：2025 年 4 月 22 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约日内收涨，现货市场价格延续弱势，需求活跃度低，对行情支 撑乏力，今日期货小幅反弹，明日或情绪稍有好转。供应端，日产窄幅波动为主， 本周至五月期间，尿素工厂复产多于临检，供应日产或有继续上行，日产对行情 继续实现压制。需求端，农需零星拿货，下一步农业需求或在五月夏季备肥，目 前对需求支撑能力疲弱。接货以复合肥工厂及其他工业刚需为主，复合肥工厂开 工负荷下滑幅度放缓，春季肥已达尾声，华北夏季肥预计即将开始继续生产，将 有拿货倾向，但需求前置下，预计增量有限，需求整体弱势，东北即将有扫尾拿 货，但供给高位下，价格提振有限。本期上游工厂继续出现累库，印证下游需求 整体出现不足。整体来说，尿素基本面依然偏弱，工业需求增量有限，盘面阶段 性反弹，上行空间不足，中期仍偏弱逻辑为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1756 元/吨低开低走，日内小幅反弹，最终 收于 1783 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅+0.85%，日成交有所增量，持仓量 196655 手（+123957 手）。前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+12015 手，空头+112 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-4-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。供应方面，日产及开工率仍在高位，库存高位去库。需求端， 工业需求中复合肥开工下行，复合肥库存累库，三聚氰胺开工回升，农业需求短期进入弱势。尿 素出口政策尚无变化消息。短期盘面延续震荡概率较高。交割品现货1850（-0），基本面整体中 性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差90，升贴水比例4.9%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存101.8万吨（+6.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面短期震荡，日产高位，库存高位去库，复 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, driving the rebound of urea futures and spot prices. Urea daily production is at a high level, increasing market supply. Agricultural demand is scattered, with fertilizer - preparation expectations in Northeast China and for southern rice. The domestic export policy remains tight, the export window is temporarily closed, and the export volume remains low. It is recommended to continuously monitor export - related policies. The urea market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On April 10, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,865 yuan/ton (+35). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,900 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,890 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1,910 yuan/ton (+10). The Shandong basis was 25 yuan/ton (-25), the Henan basis was 35 yuan/ton (-15), and the Jiangsu basis was 45 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of April 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.41% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.37 million tons (+7.95), and the port sample inventory was 11.90 million tons (-0.10) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of April 10, 2025, the urea production profit was 304 yuan/ton (+10). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 48.89% (-3.48%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.63% (+4.45%) [1] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of April 10, 2025, the export profit was - 64 yuan/ton (+3). With the rise of domestic urea prices and a slight decline in international urea prices, the price difference between the domestic and international markets has decreased, and the export window is temporarily closed [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of April 10, 2025, the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 5.82 days (-0.83) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of April 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 83.37 million tons (+7.95), and the port sample inventory was 11.90 million tons (-0.10) [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-4-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。供应方面，日产及开工率仍在高位，库存高位大幅去库。需 求端，工业需求中复合肥开工率良好，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求短期变化不大。尿素出口政 策尚无变化消息，但部分相关产品如硫酸铵、板材等出口增加，可能拉动尿素的需求。建议持续 关注低位吸纳机会，交割品现货1890（+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2505合约基差25，升贴水比例1.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存87.4万吨（-12.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期： ...

【冠通研究】 行情弱势整理，基本面承压 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 9 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约低开高走震荡收涨，前半周受关税政策影响盘面弱势运行，现 货市场同样受情绪压制，两日降价后今日低价货源成交好转，触发部分工厂停售 或小幅调涨。供给端，春季多发临检本周仍有三家工厂有检修计划，但前期检修 企业也有复产，日产稳定为主，华锦、渭河等有检修计划，天庆田原等本周复产。 需求端，下游低价货源买进。水稻农需备肥零星跟进，下一轮集中备肥系 6 月左 右农需备肥，复合肥原料价格近日下降，利润回暖，但企业成品库存增加，工厂 开工负荷降低，春季肥已达尾声，夏季肥进展有限，预计本月开工负荷继续走低。 三聚氰胺开工率稳中上移，工业需求依然维持刚性。本期上游工厂出现累库，清 明假期期间下游接货力度不足，弱势低价下，需求跟进缓慢，工厂出现累库。整 体来说，尿素目前受宏观影响较小，基本面偏弱，需求端环比走弱，盘面震荡偏 弱为主，主力合约关注 1780-1900 元/吨区间宽幅震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1785 元/吨低开高走午后翻红，盘面震荡收 涨，最终收于 1830 元/吨，收成一根阳线， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue narrow - range fluctuations [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea prices are currently high due to downstream agricultural demand. The supply of urea remains high with few maintenance enterprises, and the demand is also good. Agricultural demand is supported by the fertilizer needs of northern corn and southern rice, and industrial demand for compound fertilizers is in the peak production season. The domestic export policy is tightened, and the possibility of enterprises participating in the Indian import tender is low. The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and attention should be paid to export - related policies and demand progress [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][7][8] 2. Urea Production - It shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [16] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes information on production costs, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [16][19][22] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - It provides data on the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the price difference between the Baltic Sea and China, the price difference between Southeast Asia and China, urea export profit, and disk export profit [26][30][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - The report shows the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pre - received orders [42][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes data on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract positions, and main - contract trading volume [45][48][53]