Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price dropped to near the mid - June level, and the downstream acceptance may gradually increase. The prices of other raw materials for compound fertilizers, sulfur and potassium chloride, continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the release of July urea export data and the impact of Indian tenders on the futures market. The support level is 1700 - 1720, and the pressure level is 1820 - 1850 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - **Price**: The urea futures price fluctuated between 1724 yuan/ton (low) and 1772 yuan/ton (high). On August 15, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1737 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1715 yuan/ton, a 3.16% decrease from the previous week [2][4]. - **Base Difference**: On August 15, the main base difference in the Henan market was - 22 yuan/ton. The main base difference of urea weakened, with the main contract switching from 09 to 01. The spot price of urea dropped significantly, supported by the futures market's expectations [8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea ran within a range, with the 01 contract at a premium. On August 15, the 9 - 1 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 29 to - 11 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 84.45%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.47%, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily urea output was 19.27 tons, and the daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons [2][11]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite continued to adjust strongly. As of August 14, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit margins of coal - based and gas - based urea both decreased slightly [14]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand was scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 43.48%, a 1.98 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, reaching a medium - to - high level. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 82.65 tons, an increase of 2.61 tons from the previous week. The demand support from other industrial sectors such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin weakened [2][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous week, showing inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks. Urea port inventory was 742,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous week, with partial digestion of port inventory. There were 3,573 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 71,460 tons [2][27]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral; for inter - delivery spread, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage on UR01 - 05 when the spread is high; there is no recommendation for inter - commodity trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading atmosphere continues to weaken, and spot prices are stable with a slight decline. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. Although the output of urea is at a high level and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, the supply - demand situation of urea will remain relatively loose in the future. The profit of coal - based urea production is acceptable, but the cost support is weak. Urea exports are ongoing, and port inventories are fluctuating slightly. Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the spreads between different contract months (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1) [7][8][12][21] 2. Urea Production - It presents the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [21] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows the production cost, spot production profit, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates, and the national capacity utilization rate [21][24][29] 4. Urea Off - shore Prices and Export Profits - It includes the FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - sized urea in China, and the urea export profit and the profit of export on the futures market [26][28][32][35][38] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pre - received orders are presented [48][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position and trading volume of the main contract [46][49][50] Market Data - **Price and Basis**: On August 14, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,726 yuan/ton (unchanged); the ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Shandong, it was 1,720 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton); in Jiangsu, it was 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 6 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), in Henan it was 14 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu it was 4 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of urea was 190 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the export profit was 1,374 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of August 14, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (up 0.08 percentage points). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (up 6.98 million tons), and the inventory of port samples was 46.40 million tons (down 1.90 million tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of August 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48% (up 1.98 percentage points); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.82% (down 11.28 percentage points); the number of days of pre - received orders of urea enterprises was 6.29 days (down 0.24 days) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market trading atmosphere has weakened. After a slight price increase in some areas, the trading volume is average. The downstream agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak due to the impact of the military parade. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea remains loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, but the cost - side support is weak. August is the export window period, and the urea export continues with narrow fluctuations in port inventory. The Indian IPL urea import tender has a confirmed winning bid of 207.5 tons. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in export dynamics [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On August 13, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1726 yuan/ton (-1); the ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1730 yuan/ton (+10); in Jiangsu, it was 1730 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was 4 yuan/ton (+11); in Henan, it was 14 yuan/ton (+11); in Jiangsu, it was 4 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of August 13, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.98% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 tons (+6.98) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+10) [1] 3.4 Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1377 yuan/ton (+12). The Indian IPL urea import tender had a confirmed winning bid of 207.5 tons, with 103.5 tons on the east coast at CFR 532 US dollars/ton and 104 tons on the west coast at CFR 530 US dollars/ton [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 41.50% (+2.82%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.10% (-2.40%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.29 days (-0.24) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 13, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 48.30 tons (-1.00) [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Energy Chemical Research Report - Urea Daily Report [2] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1726 (+0/+0%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were stable. Henan's factory price was reported at 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shandong's small - particle factory price at 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, Hebei's small - particle factory price at 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi's medium and small - particle factory price at 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Anhui's small - particle factory price at 1690 - 1710 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia's factory price at 1570 - 1630 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On August 13, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.12 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.23 tons from the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 82.59%, a 5.99% increase from 76.60% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: Generally average. Mainstream regional urea spot factory quotes stopped falling and stabilized, with weaker transactions. Shandong's mainstream factory quotes rebounded, but market sentiment was average. Industrial compound fertilizer operating rates increased slightly, with sufficient raw material inventories, high finished - product inventories, few grass - roots orders, and mainly rigid - demand replenishment. Henan's market sentiment was low, with stable factory quotes, and traders were waiting and watching. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, factory prices were weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily average production dropped to around 19 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. Urea production enterprise inventories increased by 5.38 tons to around 91.73 tons, at a high level overall [5] - Demand: A new round of Indian tenders was announced, with the final price rising by more than $30/ton compared to the previous period. There was a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which boosted the domestic market sentiment to some extent. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, and grass - roots had no intention to stock up. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased slightly, the available days of urea inventory were more than half a month, and the procurement sentiment for raw materials was low [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, domestic demand was still limited. Agricultural demand had ended, and compound fertilizers had not started production on a large scale. The spot market sentiment was generally stable. After some regions lowered factory prices, manufacturers still had difficulty in receiving orders. The Indian tender confirmed 2.1 million tons of supply, in line with market expectations, and the spot market sentiment weakened again [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - Downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, while downstream industrial demand is gradually increasing. The compound fertilizer industry has entered the autumn fertilizer production season with increased production rates but maintains just - in - time procurement. Urea production remains at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With new production capacity coming on stream, future urea supply will continue to rise. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, but cost - side support is weak. August is the export window period, and urea exports continue. Port inventory fluctuates slightly, and the export volume is expected to change little. Attention should be paid to the impact of export - related information on market sentiment [2] 3) Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On August 11, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,722 yuan/ton (-6). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,740 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1,730 yuan/ton (-30); in Jiangsu, it was 1,740 yuan/ton (-40). The basis in Shandong was 8 yuan/ton (-24); in Henan, it was 18 yuan/ton (-34); in Jiangsu, it was 18 yuan/ton (-34) [1] II. Urea Production - As of August 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 81.98% (0.08%). Urea production remains at a high level, and with new production capacity coming on stream, future supply will continue to rise [1][2] III. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (-30). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, but cost - side support is weak. As of August 11, 2025, the national capacity utilization rate was 81.98% (0.08%), the coal - based capacity utilization rate and gas - based capacity utilization rate are also mentioned in the report [1] IV. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,323 yuan/ton (+359). August is the export window period, and urea exports continue. Port inventory fluctuates slightly, and the export volume is expected to change little [1][2] V. Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - As of August 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.50% (+2.82%); that of melamine was 61.10% (-2.40%); the number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 6.53 days (+0.41). The compound fertilizer industry has entered the autumn fertilizer production season with increased production rates but maintains just - in - time procurement [1][2] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 11, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 88.76 million tons (-2.97), and the port sample inventory was 48.30 million tons (-1.00). Upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and port inventory fluctuates slightly [1][2]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250812: 基本面仍有压力 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 8月11日 8月8日 单位 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1751.00 1790.00 1730.00 | 1751.00 1784.00 1760.00 | 0.00 6.00 -30.00 | 0.00% 0.34% -1.70% -1.21% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1722.00 | 1728.00 | -6.00 | -0.35% | | | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1630.00 | 1650.00 | -20.00 | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1780.00 | -40.00 | -2.25% | | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1750.00 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1780 | 0 | 09合约 | 1728 | - 9 | 仓 单 | 3623 | 250 | | 山东现货 | 1790 | -10 | 基 差 | 5 2 | 9 | UR综合库存 | 147 7 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1780 | 0 | UR01 | 1751 | - 6 | ...

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 7 日星期四 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 6 元至 1750 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 涨 10 至 1790 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 2819 手至 17.29 万手，空头持仓减 少 5677 手至 19.06 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.21 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.20 万吨；较去年同 期增加 1.91 万吨；今日开工 82.98%，较去年同期 78.44%提升 4.54%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 88.76 万吨，较上周减少 2.97 万吨，环比减 | | | | | 少 3.24%。尿素港口样本库存量 49.3 万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, India's IPL urea import tender with a total of over 4.5 million tons and higher prices than the previous round boosted the urea futures price. The current urea production is at a high level with sufficient supply, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. During the export window period, the export volume is expected to remain stable, and port inventories will stay high. Downstream industrial demand shows a slow recovery in compound fertilizer production and weak operation in melamine production. The domestic agricultural and industrial demand will gradually enter the off - season, and agricultural demand for urea is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation [3] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On August 4, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,733 yuan/ton (+24). The ex - factory prices of small - sized urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1,760 yuan/ton (0), 1,760 yuan/ton (+0), and 1,770 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu was 27 yuan/ton (-24), 27 yuan/ton (-34), and 37 yuan/ton (-24) respectively [2] 3.2 Urea Production - As of August 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.60% (0.08%). The current urea production is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient, with the operating rate expected to remain high in the future [2][3] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 4, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based production are relevant indicators for the operating rate [2] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - On August 4, India's IPL urea import tender had a minimum CFR price of 532 US dollars/ton on the east coast and 530 US dollars/ton on the west coast, higher than the previous round. As of August 4, 2025, the export profit was 982 yuan/ton (-88). During the domestic export window period, the export volume is expected to remain stable [2][3] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of August 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.68% (+5.10%), and that of melamine was 63.50% (-1.70%). The number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.12 days (+0.18). The compound fertilizer operation is slowly recovering, while the melamine operation is weak [2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.73 million tons (+5.85), and the port sample inventory was 49.30 million tons (-5.00). With the end of the agricultural summer top - dressing season, agricultural demand for urea weakens, and upstream inventories start to accumulate [2][3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 尿素早报 2025-8-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡回落。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应 方面，日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落， 三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预 期放开。交割品现货1750（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差41，升贴水比例2.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存143.1万吨（+0.9），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约 ...