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银河期货尿素日报-20250813
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 14:45
尿素日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场:尿素期货震荡,最终报收 1726(+0/+0%)。 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 2、现货市场:出厂价平稳,低价一般,河南出厂报 1660-1680 元/吨,山东小颗粒 出厂报 1680-1700 元/吨,河北小颗粒出厂 1700-1710 元/吨,山西中小颗粒出厂报 1620-1630 元/吨,安徽小颗粒出厂报 1690-1710 元/吨,内蒙出厂报 1570-1630 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】8 月 13 日,尿素行业日产 19.12 万吨,较上一工作日减少 0.15 万吨;较去 年同期增加 2.23 万吨;今日开工 82.59%,较去年同期 76.60%提升 5.99%。 【逻辑分析】 今日,市场情绪表现一般,主流地区尿素现货出厂报价止跌企稳,成交转弱。山东 地区主流出厂报价止跌反弹,市场情绪表现一般,工业复合肥开工率略有提升,原料库 存充裕,成品库存偏高,基层订单稀少,刚需补货为主,农业刚需采购,贸易商出货, 新单成交乏力,待发消耗,预计出厂报价暂稳为主;河南地区市场情绪偏低,出厂报价 暂稳,贸易商观望,收单量下 ...
银河期货原油期货早报-20250811
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 05:04
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term, the market focuses on the cease - fire negotiation between the US and Russia on the Russia - Ukraine issue and India's attitude towards Russian oil sanctions. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified, and the price is bearish. Brent should pay attention to the support around $65.5 per barrel [1][2] - **Asphalt**: It maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term and more resistant to decline than crude oil. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3450 - 3550 [3][5] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced, and the demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply is rising and the demand has no specific driver. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] - **PX**: Supply is recovering in August, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [7][9] - **PTA**: Supply load has rebounded, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [12][13] - **Short Fiber**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [15][16] - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [18][19] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be relatively balanced, and the price has strong support. Styrene's supply is expected to increase, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The price of pure benzene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [19][21] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and short positions should be held. Caustic soda's price is expected to be in a volatile trend, and short positions should be closed at low prices [25][26] - **Plastic and PP**: The overall supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, and the strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [29][30] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and demand is declining. The strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [31] - **Soda Ash**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [33][34] - **Glass**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [35][37] - **Log**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited. The market is generally stable and slightly strong, but long - term demand needs to be observed [38][40] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general. The price is generally stable [40][42] - **Pulp**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend. The strategy is to hold short positions in the main 11 - contract [42][44] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The strategy is to try to go long in the main 09 - contract [45][47] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: For the RU main 01 - contract, wait and see; for the NR main 10 - contract, try to go long. Consider arbitrage opportunities in RU2511 - NR2511 [47][49] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 was stable at $63.88 per barrel, Brent2510 rose $0.16 to $66.59 per barrel, and SC2510 fell to 493 yuan per barrel. The Brent main - secondary spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: The US and Russia may negotiate to end the Ukraine war, and India has put on hold the plan to purchase US weapons and is open to reducing Russian oil imports [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term feed demand is okay, and the market focuses on geopolitical events. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: gasoline cracking is weak, diesel cracking is strong; Options: wait and see [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3484 points (+0.17%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3394 points (+0.09%) at night [3] - **Related News**: Shandong's mainstream transaction price fell by 5 yuan per ton, and the supply - demand pattern was loose [3] - **Logic Analysis**: July's actual output was higher than expected, and the demand in the south and north was weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4][5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: wait and see [5] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2776 (-0.82%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3464 (-0.89%) at night [5] - **Related News**: Iraq seized an oil tanker, and the domestic low - sulfur production in July decreased [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply pressure is slightly reduced, and low - sulfur supply is rising [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see [7] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6726 (-0.33%) on Friday and 6748 (+0.33%) at night [7] - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, and demand lacks upward drive [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [9] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4684 (-0.09%) on Friday and 4692 (+0.17%) at night [9] - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates increased [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply load has rebounded, and demand lacks upward drive [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [12] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4384 (-0.27%) on Friday and 4391 (+0.16%) at night [12] - **Related News**: China's ethylene glycol operating rate increased [12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [14] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 closed at 6382 (-0.16%) on Friday and 6398 (+0.25%) at night [15] - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased [16] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [17] PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 closed at 5898 (-0.34%) on Friday and 5924 (+0.44%) at night [16][18] - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate was flat, and the export price was lowered [18] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized, and the price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 6204 (-0.70%) on Friday and 6213 (+0.15%) at night. EB2509 closed at 7235 (-0.84%) on Friday and 7230 (-0.07%) at night [19] - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene and their downstream products changed [21] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and styrene's supply is expected to increase [21] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20][22] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were weakly volatile, and caustic soda spot prices were stable [22][23] - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling changed [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and caustic soda's price is expected to be volatile [25][26] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: PVC hold short positions, caustic soda close short positions at low prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [27] Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions changed [27] - **Related News**: The inventory of major producers increased [28] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity is being put into production, and demand is expected to be weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [28] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [28][29] Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 2384 (-0.17%) at night [29] - **Related News**: International methanol production increased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: International supply is recovering, and domestic supply is abundant. The strategy is to short at high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell call options [30][31] Urea - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1728 (-0.52%) [31] - **Related News**: Northeast urea arrivals decreased [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is declining, and the strategy is to short at high prices [31] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell put options on dips [31][32] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1249 (-1.4%) on Friday and 1242 (-0.6%) at night [33] - **Related News**: Domestic soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [33][34] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [34][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [35] Glass - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1063 (-1.21%) on Friday and 1064 (+0.09%) at night [35] - **Related News**: Glass inventory increased, and production was stable [35][36] - **Logic Analysis**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [36][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [38] Log - **Market Review**: The 9 - contract price fell to 830.5 yuan per cubic meter [39] - **Related News**: Log prices were stable, and imports decreased [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wait and see, aggressive investors can short near the previous high; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [40] Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was generally stable [40] - **Related News**: Some production lines were shut down for maintenance, and Suzano cut production [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general [42] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 11 - contract rose 0.23% [42] - **Related News**: Jiulong Paper raised prices, and downstream packaging enterprises responded [43][44] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: hold short positions in the main 11 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see [45] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 09 - contract rose 1.26% [45] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [46][47] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: try to go long in the main 09 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [47] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: The RU main 01 - contract rose 0.77%, and the NR main 10 - contract rose 0.06% [47][48] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: RU main 01 - contract wait and see, NR main 10 - contract try to go long; Arbitrage: consider RU2511 - NR2511; Options: wait and see [49]
光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250711
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 05:06
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Relatively Strong [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea: On Thursday, the spot price of urea continued to rise, with the market price in mainstream areas increasing by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The daily output decreased to 19.61 tons, a daily decrease of 0.3 tons. The demand side continued to advance, but the current market focus is on the Indian tender and subsequent export policies. If there is no additional positive driving force, the market sentiment may decline, and short - term long positions can be appropriately stopped for profit [2]. - Soda Ash: On Thursday, the spot quotation of soda ash was mostly stable. The supply side remained unchanged, while the demand side continued to decline, and enterprises continued to accumulate inventory. The fundamentals are still weak, but the futures market is driven by macro and policy expectations. It is not recommended to be overly bullish [2]. - Glass: On Thursday, the spot market of glass was stable. The supply was also stable, and the demand side sentiment continued to improve. The inventory decreased by 2.87%. The futures market is centered on macro - policy expectations, and it is expected that the futures price of glass will run in a relatively strong state [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Information - Urea - On July 10, the futures warehouse receipts of urea on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 2,645, an increase of 400 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0 [5]. - On July 10, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.61 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.73 tons from the same period last year; the current start - up rate was 84.69%, a rebound of 2.12 percentage points from 82.57% in the same period last year [5]. - On July 10, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased to varying degrees, with Shandong at 1,860 yuan/ton (+20), Henan at 1,850 yuan/ton (+10), etc. [5] - As of July 9, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons (-4.99%) from the previous week [6] Market Information - Soda Ash & Glass - On July 10, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,481, a decrease of 255 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 576; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 799, unchanged from the previous trading day [8]. - On July 10, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions varied, with the light soda ash in North China at 1,180 yuan/ton and the heavy soda ash at 1,300 yuan/ton, etc. [8] - As of the week of July 10, the weekly output of soda ash was 70.90 tons, and the industry capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, both remaining flat week - on - week [8]. - As of July 10, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 186.34 tons, an increase of 1.53 tons (+0.83%) from Monday and an increase of 5.39 tons (+2.98%) from last Thursday [8]. - On July 10, the average market price of float glass was 1,173 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day; the daily output of the industry was 15.84 tons, unchanged day - on - day [8]. - As of July 10, the inventory of float glass enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes (-2.87%) from the previous period, and an increase of 5.54% year - on - year. The inventory days decreased by 1 day to 28.9 days [8] Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and positions, price spreads, and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass, as well as the futures price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][11][13][16][17][20]
尿素早评:出口消息提振,现货逐步企稳-20250627
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 02:36
| | | | | 尿素早评20250627: 出口消息提振,现货逐步企稳 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 单位 6月26日 6月25日 | | | | 变化值 (絶対值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | | | UR01 UR05 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1682.00 1691.00 1800.00 | 1697.00 1705.00 1760.00 | -15.00 -14.00 40.00 | -0.88% -0.82% 2.27% | | 尿素期货价格 | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1724.00 | 1740.00 | -16.00 | -0.92% | | | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1650.00 | 1650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1770.00 | 30.00 | 1.69% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1 ...