2025 年 04 月 20 日 平安银行 (000001) ——业绩预期内承压，但更要关注业务结构的转型进阶 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 18 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 11.18 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 13.43/9.61 | | 市净率 | 0.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 8.63 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 216,954 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,276.73/9,781.65 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 22.48 | | 资产负债率% | 91.24 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 19,406/19,406 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-18 05-18 06-18 07-18 08-18 09-18 10-18 11-18 12-18 01-18 0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The revenue growth of listed banks in the fourth quarter has generally rebounded, with large banks benefiting from a low base in Q4 2023 and increased investment income and foreign exchange gains [2][6] - Most banks maintain positive net profit growth, with large banks seeing a comprehensive turnaround in net profit growth, while high-quality city commercial banks lead in growth rates [2][6] - The net interest margin decline in the fourth quarter was better than expected, reflecting accelerated improvement in funding costs [2][8] - Asset quality is generally stable, with a decrease in non-performing loan ratios, while the provision coverage ratio has generally declined, supporting profit growth [2][9] - Retail risk in the industry is rising, with expectations of continued pressure on retail risk in the first half of 2025 [2][9] - Dividend ratios for large banks remain stable, with state-owned banks maintaining a high certainty of a 30% dividend ratio [2][10] Performance Growth - In 2024, most state-owned banks and city commercial banks achieved positive revenue growth, with a trend of accelerated growth in Q4 [6][20] - The net profit growth of large state-owned banks has turned positive, with high-quality city commercial banks maintaining leading growth rates [6][20] Scale Expansion - Credit growth has generally slowed, with high-quality city commercial banks continuing to lead [7][27] - State-owned banks have seen a decrease in credit growth after rapid expansion over the past two years, while high-quality regional city commercial banks maintain strong growth [7][27] Profitability - The decline in net interest margin has slowed significantly, with an average decline of 1.5 basis points for state-owned banks in 2024 [8][24] - The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities for 23 banks has decreased by 14 basis points [8][24] Asset Quality - Among 35 banks, 24 have seen a year-on-year decrease in non-performing loan ratios, while 9 have remained stable [9][29] - The provision coverage ratio has generally declined, particularly for retail banks, reflecting a reduction in credit impairment provisions [9][29] Dividend Ratio - Most banks maintain stable dividend ratios, with state-owned banks expected to maintain a 30% dividend ratio [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The overall operating conditions of the six major state-owned banks show a steady trend, with a decrease in the overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and a maintained provision coverage ratio at a safe level, indicating an improvement in asset quality. However, there are underlying concerns, such as the rising balance of special mention loans and the increasing individual loan NPL ratio, which presents challenges for future asset quality control [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Quality Indicators - The NPL ratio of the six major banks is trending downwards and remains below the regulatory red line of 5%. Specific NPL ratios include: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) at 1.34% (down 2 basis points), Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) at 1.30% (down 3 basis points), Bank of China (BOC) at 1.25% (down 2 basis points), China Construction Bank (CCB) at 1.34% (down 3 basis points), and Bank of Communications (BoCom) at 1.31% (down 2 basis points). Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) saw a slight increase of 7 basis points to 0.90%, still the lowest among the six banks [2]. - The provision coverage ratio for all six banks significantly exceeds the regulatory red line of 150%, ranging from 200% to 300%. ICBC (214.97%), BOC (200.60%), and BoCom (201.94%) showed increases compared to the previous year, while ABC and CCB experienced slight declines, with PSBC seeing the largest drop of 61.42 percentage points, yet still maintaining a high absolute value [3]. - The balance of special mention loans has increased for five of the six banks, indicating a potential risk of these loans converting into NPLs. The increases in special mention loans are as follows: ICBC up by 91.5 billion yuan, PSBC up by 29.3 billion yuan, ABC up by 27.5 billion yuan, BOC up by 26.2 billion yuan, and BoCom up by 10.7 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Individual Loan NPL Trends - The individual loan NPL ratio has been quietly rising, with the total amount of personal NPLs increasing significantly. In 2024, the personal NPL amounts increased by 109 billion yuan for PSBC, 301 billion yuan for CCB, 421 billion yuan for ICBC, 143 billion yuan for BOC, 320 billion yuan for ABC, and 97 billion yuan for BoCom, totaling nearly 1.4 trillion yuan [6]. - The individual loan NPL ratios have also risen across the board, with ICBC's ratio increasing from 0.70% to 1.15% (up 0.45 percentage points), CCB from 0.66% to 0.98% (up 0.32 percentage points), ABC from 0.73% to 1.03% (up 0.30 percentage points), BoCom from 0.81% to 1.08% (up 0.27 percentage points), and PSBC from 1.12% to 1.28% (up 0.16 percentage points) [6][7]. - Notably, personal operating loans, primarily aimed at small and micro business owners, have seen a significant increase in NPL ratios, with ICBC's ratio rising from 0.86% to 1.27%, ABC from 0.93% to 1.39%, and CCB from 0.95% to 1.59% [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategies - In response to the rising risks in retail loans, banks are implementing various strategies. CCB plans to strengthen risk control throughout the retail loan process, while ABC emphasizes strict entry standards for inclusive retail business and optimizing the risk control system. BOC aims to enhance proactive risk management and post-loan management, and ICBC focuses on optimizing business entry and bad debt disposal processes. BoCom intends to balance business development with risk control to maintain retail loan quality within expected ranges [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Zhangjiagang Bank reported a revenue of 4.71 billion with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.88 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue growth is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% and net profit growth of 5.1%, showing resilience in performance [2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) is 11.05%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net interest income and non-interest income growth rates are -12.6% and 96.8%, respectively, indicating a significant recovery in non-interest income [2] Loan and Asset Growth - The growth rate of interest-earning assets and loans is 4% and 8%, respectively, showing a slight slowdown compared to the previous quarter [3] - New loans for the year totaled 10.2 billion, with a decrease in financial investments and interbank assets [3] - The bank's focus on corporate and retail loans remains strong, with corporate loans accounting for 53.2% of total loans [3] Deposit Trends - Deposit growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in total deposits [5] - The proportion of time deposits continues to rise, reaching 79.4% by year-end [5] - New deposits for the year totaled 10.1 billion, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous year [5] Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin (NIM) for the year is 1.62%, showing a "L"-shaped trend with a decrease of 37 basis points year-on-year [6] - Non-interest income reached 1.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 97%, driven by bond trading [7][8] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stands at 0.94%, indicating strong risk management capabilities [9] - The bank's provision coverage ratio is 376%, maintaining a high level of risk buffer [9] Capital Adequacy - The core tier 1 capital ratio is 11.1%, reflecting an increase due to the conversion of convertible bonds [10] - The bank's risk-weighted assets (RWA) growth rate is 6.7%, showing a slowdown in asset expansion [10] Strategic Focus - The bank is focusing on the local market, particularly in personal business loans, and is expanding its presence in Suzhou, Wuxi, and Nantong [11] - The strategy aims to enhance loan growth and improve asset pricing [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Jiangyin Bank (002807.SZ) with a current price of 4.45 CNY [1]. Core Views - Jiangyin Bank's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 3.96 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.04 billion CNY, up 7.9% year-on-year. The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) is 11.55%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Jiangyin Bank's revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates for 2024 are 2.5%, -4.8%, and 7.9%, respectively, with improvements of 1.2, 0.7, and 1.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters [4]. - The net interest income and non-interest income growth rates are -6% and 31.2%, respectively, with increases of 1.3 and 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters [4]. Loan and Deposit Growth - By the end of 2024, the growth rates for interest-earning assets and loans are 6.6% and 7.6%, respectively, showing a slight improvement from the end of Q3 2024 [5]. - The bank's deposits grew at a rate of 9.1% year-on-year, with a notable increase in time deposits, which accounted for 63% of total deposits by year-end [6]. Net Interest Margin (NIM) and Income Structure - The NIM increased by 2 basis points to 1.76% despite a decline in asset yields and loan pricing pressure [7]. - Non-interest income reached 1.16 billion CNY, growing by 31% year-on-year, with significant contributions from investment income [8]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - By the end of 2024, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and attention ratio were 0.86% and 1.22%, respectively, indicating a decrease from the previous quarter [9]. - The capital adequacy ratios are robust, with the core Tier 1 capital ratio at 14.1% and the total capital adequacy ratio at 15.2% [10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 0.86 CNY, 0.89 CNY, and 0.91 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating a favorable valuation [11].

随着贷款总额增加，工行、建行、农行、中行、交行和邮储银行六家 大型商业银行 （以下统称 "六大行"）近五年不良贷款 余额也持续上升 。 2024 年末工商银行不良贷款余额达到了 3794.58 亿元 ，建设银行和农业银行不良贷款余额也超过 3000 亿元 ，中国银行达到 2687.81 亿元 ，交通银行超过 1000 亿元 ，邮储银行也达到了 803.19 亿元 。 由于分母扩大， 六大行整体不良贷款率维持稳定 。除邮储银行外，其他 五家大型商业银行近五年 不良贷款率持续下降 ，与 2020 年末相比，五家大型商业银行 2024 年末不良贷款率均大幅下降（ 下降 幅度超过 20 个 BP ）。邮储银行 2024 年末不良贷款率比 2020 年末增加了 2 个 BP ，但近五年均控制 在 0.9% 以下， 整体不良贷款率在六大行中始终保持最优 。 | 银行名称 | 2020年末 | 2021 年末 | 2022年末 | 2023年末 | 2024 年末 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工商银行 | 1.58% | 1.42% | 1. 38% | 1.36% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The bank's 2024 total revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 0.2%. Interest income grew by 1.5%, while non-interest income saw a 3.2% increase. Investment income helped mitigate the decline in middle-income revenue [2][6]. - The bank's loan growth was 9.4% for the year, with retail products showing positive growth despite weak demand. Deposits increased by 9.5% [2][6]. - The net interest margin for the year was 1.87%, down 14 basis points year-on-year, while the deposit cost rate decreased by 9 basis points to 1.44%, expected to remain the lowest in the industry [2][6]. - The year-end non-performing loan ratio rose by 4 basis points to 0.90%, with a provision coverage ratio decreasing by 16 percentage points to 286% [2][6]. - The bank announced an active adjustment plan for savings agency fees, which is expected to effectively release future profits, estimating a reduction of 4.7% in pre-tax profit for 2025 due to a decrease in agency fee expenses by 4.5 billion yuan [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's total revenue was 348.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.5 billion yuan. Interest income was 286.1 billion yuan, and non-interest income was 25.3 billion yuan [27]. - The bank's total loans grew to 8.7 trillion yuan, with retail loans showing a growth rate of 9.4% [27]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at year-end was 0.90%, with a new generation rate of 0.84% for the year. The provision coverage ratio was 286% [2][6]. - The bank's asset quality indicators remained strong despite some fluctuations in retail risk pressures [2][6]. Fee Adjustment Impact - The active adjustment of savings agency fees is projected to save 11.5 billion yuan in 2024 and 4.5 billion yuan in 2025, enhancing pre-tax profit by 4.7% [21][22]. - The comprehensive savings agency fee rate is expected to decrease from 1.15% to 1.04% following the adjustments [21][22]. Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio of 30% for 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 5.0% for A-shares and 5.7% for H-shares [2][6]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is estimated at 0.58x for A-shares and 0.51x for H-shares, indicating a low valuation with high dividend yield advantages [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 135.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 41.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.22. The non-performing loan ratio and provision coverage ratio at the end of Q4 2024 are 1.25% and 180.59%, respectively, remaining stable and improving by 9.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1][4] Summary by Sections Performance - The company's revenue growth rate for 2024 is -7.05%, with a marginal improvement of 1.7 percentage points compared to the first three quarters. The net profit growth rate is 2.22%, improving by 0.3 percentage points from the first three quarters. This improvement is attributed to a stabilization in interest margins, a reduced decline in middle-income, and growth in other non-interest income [2] - Net interest income for 2024 decreased by 10.06%, with a net interest margin of 1.54%, remaining stable compared to the first half of 2024. The year-on-year decline in net interest margin is 20 basis points, which is a smaller decline than the previous year [2][3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of Q4 2024 is 1.25%, unchanged from the previous quarter. Leading indicators such as the attention rate and overdue rate have improved, decreasing by 15 basis points and 19 basis points, respectively, compared to Q2 2024. The provision coverage ratio has increased by 9.9 percentage points [4] - The non-performing loan generation rate for 2024 is 1.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 23 basis points. The total amount of non-performing loans is reported at 49.25 billion yuan, with a net increase of 1.7 billion yuan in corporate loans [4] Assets and Liabilities - As of the end of Q4 2024, total assets and loans amount to 6.96 trillion yuan and 3.93 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.75% and 3.88%. The growth in total assets is primarily driven by a rapid increase in interbank assets [10] - Total deposits at the end of Q4 2024 are reported at 3.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.67%, mainly due to a net decrease in corporate demand deposits [10]

Core Viewpoints - The company reported a slight recovery in performance metrics for 2024, with operating income, PPOP, and net profit growth rates of -2.54%, -4.03%, and 0.88% respectively, showing marginal improvements compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company experienced a decrease in net interest margin, but improvements in liability costs contributed to a stabilization of the margin in Q4 2024 [2] - Non-interest income saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 50.56%, primarily driven by trading gains and realized income from investment accounts [2] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company reported year-on-year growth rates of -0.09% for revenue, -3.26% for PPOP, and 3.37% for net profit, with quarter-on-quarter changes of +2.63pct, +1.24pct, and -0.42pct respectively [1] - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.51%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point compared to the first three quarters, while Q4 2024's estimated margin was 1.49%, reflecting a 4 basis point increase [2] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of Q4 2024 was 1.34%, a decrease of 1 basis point, indicating stable asset quality [2] Asset and Liability Management - The company’s interest-earning assets grew by 5.75% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 8.33%, although growth rates for both corporate and retail loans showed a decline [3] - Deposit growth for 2024 was 3.8%, a significant decrease from 2023, as the company focused on proactive liability management and increased bond issuance [3] - The cost-to-income ratio for 2024 was 29.44%, up 1.24 percentage points from 2023, reflecting pressures on revenue [3] Risk and Outlook - The company noted that retail loan quality showed signs of stress, with the retail loan NPL ratio rising to 0.98%, an increase of 14 basis points [2] - Despite a slowdown in scale expansion, the company maintains a stable operational foundation, with expectations for improvement in key performance indicators in 2025 as economic policies take effect [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Commercial Bank reported a slight increase in net profit for 2024, with a net profit of 15.186 billion RMB, up 0.92% year-on-year, and a significant increase in fair value changes net income by 1095.92% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The bank achieved an operating income of 67.65 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.19% [2]. - Total profit amounted to 17.579 billion RMB, reflecting a 0.50% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The net interest income was 45.157 billion RMB, down 4.99% year-on-year, with interest income at 110.697 billion RMB, up 0.40% [2][3]. - Non-interest net income reached 22.493 billion RMB, a 39.05% increase, driven by strong performance in trading financial assets [3]. Asset and Liability Overview - As of the end of 2024, total assets were 3,325.539 billion RMB, up 5.78% from the previous year [4]. - Total liabilities increased by 5.70% to 3,122.796 billion RMB [4]. - The bank's loan and advance total was 1,857.116 billion RMB, an increase of 8.21% [4]. Asset Quality - Non-performing loans (NPL) stood at 25.494 billion RMB, an increase of 8.98 billion RMB, with an NPL ratio of 1.38%, down 0.06 percentage points [5][6]. - The provision coverage ratio was 178.67%, a decrease of 3.93 percentage points [6]. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio was 12.61%, up 0.42 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased to 8.38%, reflecting a 0.16 percentage point rise [7].