Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic trends and policies in China, focusing on fiscal spending, child-rearing subsidies, and the implications of the "involution" phenomenon in different sectors [6][12][21]. Group 1: Currency and Economic Policies - The article highlights the weak yen amidst political turmoil, analyzing the reasons behind its depreciation and potential future developments [9]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced supply-demand relationship in industries to address the "involution" issue, suggesting that local governments play a crucial role in this process [12][21]. Group 2: Fiscal Spending and Child-Rearing Subsidies - Fiscal spending has accelerated significantly in the first half of the year, raising questions about whether this high growth rate can be sustained in the latter half [17]. - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies is expected to have systemic impacts on employment, education, and healthcare, with various regions implementing different subsidy policies [19][20]. Group 3: Industrial Performance and Economic Outlook - The industrial profit data for June indicates improvements in costs and revenues, supporting a recovery in profits, although the "involution" trend may limit further declines in profits [21]. - The July Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, marking a shift towards "high-quality" investments [23]. Group 4: Market Trends and International Relations - The article notes that the PMI data for July reflects a paradox where anti-involution policies have led to price increases, yet supply-demand dynamics and industry changes appear counterintuitive [25]. - Recent agreements on tariffs between the US and Japan have resulted in positive market reactions in developed markets, indicating a potential for increased trade cooperation [28]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Activity - Despite a relatively weak industrial production environment, port cargo volumes remain strong, suggesting resilience in certain sectors [29]. - The article also tracks domestic policy developments, including the public consultation on the price law amendment, which reflects ongoing regulatory adjustments [31].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming economic policies and planning for the 15th Five-Year Plan are crucial as the Central Committee prepares for the fourth plenary session in October, focusing on economic and social development strategies [2][3]. Economic Policy Direction - The macroeconomic policies will continue to exert influence, with an emphasis on releasing domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, expanding high-level opening-up, and ensuring risk prevention in key areas [3][4]. - Key points from Xi Jinping's speech include maintaining stability while seeking progress, enhancing consumer confidence, and promoting domestic circulation to achieve economic goals for the year [3][4]. Consumer Stimulus and Policy Innovations - A significant focus is on boosting consumption and breaking the cycle of "involution," which aims to enhance the quality of supply and shift economic growth towards domestic consumption [4][5]. - The introduction of a new child-rearing subsidy policy, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old, marking a significant shift in public policy towards direct cash support for families [5][6]. Anticipated Economic Impact - Economists estimate that the child-rearing subsidy could increase retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points nationwide, indicating a potential boost in consumer spending [6]. - The political bureau's meeting highlighted plans for implementing consumption-boosting actions and expanding service consumption, suggesting that improving livelihoods will be a key driver for consumption policies in the 15th Five-Year Plan [6].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is set to hold a press conference on August 1 to discuss the current economic situation and work plans, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [1]. Economic Performance Summary - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% when calculated at constant prices [4]. - By industry, the value added in the primary sector was 3,117.2 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary sector's value added was 23,905.0 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.3%; and the tertiary sector's value added was 39,031.4 billion yuan, increasing by 5.5% [4]. - Quarterly analysis shows that GDP growth was 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [4]. Policy Implications - The NDRC emphasizes that the macroeconomic policies have been effective, leading to a stable and positive economic development trend, showcasing resilience and vitality [4]. - However, it also highlights the presence of external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand, indicating that the foundation for economic recovery needs further strengthening [4]. - The next steps involve adhering to Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics, maintaining a stable yet progressive work tone, and accelerating the establishment of a new development pattern to enhance domestic circulation and ensure high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [4].

Economic Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will hold a press conference on August 1 to interpret the current economic situation and work [1] - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need to recognize risks and challenges in the economy, while leveraging development opportunities and advantages to maintain economic recovery momentum [1] GDP Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The GDP growth for the first quarter was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a growth of 5.2%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the GDP grew by 1.1% in the second quarter [4] Sectoral Contributions - The primary industry added value was 31,172 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [3] - The secondary industry added value was 239,050 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% [3] - The tertiary industry added value was 390,314 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.5% [3] Policy Guidance - The NDRC and other authorities stress the importance of adhering to Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics, maintaining a stable and progressive work approach, and promoting domestic and international dual circulation [4]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is showing a robust growth trend, contributing valuable "certainty" to global development, and foreign investment is encouraged to further integrate into China's "development chain" [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth and Investment - Recent positive responses to China's economic half-year report have led international organizations like the IMF and Morgan Stanley to raise their growth forecasts for China [1] - Foreign financial institutions, such as Baqi Investment, believe that China is undergoing an unprecedented scale of economic transformation, shifting from "Made in China" to "Created in China," which will provide more opportunities for foreign investors [1] Group 2: Economic Governance and Policy Environment - The certainty in China's economic growth stems from effective economic governance, which includes the implementation of innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development concepts [2] - China is optimizing its industrial structure and leveraging its vast market potential to drive economic growth, focusing on technological innovation and high-quality development to mitigate external risks [2] - A stable and predictable policy environment is being maintained through proactive macroeconomic policies that enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market [2] Group 3: Global Economic Cooperation - China advocates for a global economic governance approach based on equality, openness, cooperation, and sharing, supporting a multilateral trade system and upholding international fairness and justice [2] - The Chinese market is consistently viewed as a preferred option for international investment, and the country welcomes foreign enterprises to engage in its development [2]

7月31日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。记者提问，近期，中国经济半年报的亮眼成绩引发积 极反响，国际货币基金组织、摩根士丹利等国际组织和机构普遍上调中国经济增长预期，不少跨国公司 继续增持中国资产。柏基投资等外资金融机构就认为，中国正发生"世所未见的规模性经济变革"，实现 由"中国制造"向"中国创造"的转型升级，必将为外国投资者提供更多发展机遇。发言人对此有何评论? 郭嘉昆表示，中国经济稳健增长态势持续增强，创新活力加速释放，为世界发展贡献了最宝贵的确定 性。这一确定性来自经济治理的有效性。我们贯彻创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的新发展理念，推动 建设更高水平开放型经济新体制，中国式现代化的生动实践为各国提供发展新路径。(智通财经) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on July 30, 2025, emphasized the key node of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and continued the "Four Stabilities" policy line. The macro - policy was updated to "continue to exert force and add force in a timely manner", and for the first time proposed to "strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation" [1]. - Fiscal policy continued with a more proactive stance, with a more precise requirement on the pace of force exertion. The fiscal acceleration had shown multi - dimensional boosting effects on the economic fundamentals, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter reached 5.2%. Monetary policy maintained a "moderately loose" stance and focused on precise investment through structural policy tools [2]. - In terms of domestic demand, it emphasized the linkage between people's livelihood and consumption and the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption. In the aspect of deepening reform, it continued to focus on "anti - involution" and related work. The meeting's tone on the bond market was focused on policy continuity and structural optimization, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was expected to return to rationality, possibly back to the 1.7% central level [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Policy Background and General Tone - The meeting on July 30, 2025, not only deployed the economic work for the second half of the year but also emphasized the key node of the "15th Five - Year Plan". It continued the "Four Stabilities" policy line of the April meeting and emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The macro - policy was updated from "continue to exert force and be more powerful" to "continue to exert force and add force in a timely manner" and proposed to strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation [1]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Continued the "more proactive fiscal policy" tone, and required to speed up the issuance and use of government bonds and improve capital use efficiency. From January to June 2025, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 2.6 trillion yuan, of which 2.16 trillion yuan was special bonds; the total issuance of local government bonds was 5.49 trillion yuan, of which 4.31 trillion yuan was special bonds. The progress of the 4.4 - trillion - yuan special bond quota arranged in the "Government Work Report" had exceeded 90%. The fiscal acceleration had boosted the economic fundamentals, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate reached 5.2% [2]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - Maintained a "moderately loose" stance, aiming to keep liquidity abundant and drive down the comprehensive social financing cost, especially supporting industries such as "technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro - enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade". This year, it relied more on structural policy tools for more precise investment [2]. 3.4 Domestic Demand and Reform - In terms of domestic demand, it emphasized the linkage between people's livelihood and consumption, and the need to "cultivate new growth points in service consumption". In the aspect of deepening reform, it continued to focus on "anti - involution", requiring in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market, improvement of market competition order, and governance of disorderly competition among enterprises and over - capacity in key industries [3]. 3.5 Impact on the Bond Market - The meeting's tone was focused on policy continuity and structural optimization, and the incremental stimulus layout met market expectations. The short - term expectation disturbance to the bond market might come to an end, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was expected to return to rationality. Without new interest - rate cut expectations, it might return to the 1.7% central level, or even be in the range of 1.65% - 1.7% when funds were loose [3].

会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动，在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消费 新的增长点。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。高质量推动"两重"建设，激发民间投资活力，扩大有效 投资。 新华社北京7月30日电 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十 届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国 民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。中共 中央总书记习近平主持会议。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发展环境面 临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多，同时我国经济基础稳、优势多、 韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场 优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识变应 变求变，集中力量办好自己的事，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略 任务取得重大突破。 会议强调，"十五五"时期经济社会发展 ...

期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-07-31 弱化风险，关注内需政策发力 ——政治局会议系列五 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经济形 势和经济工作。 核心观点 ■ 总体判断：经济良好，质量成效 经济判断：经济运行定调积极。下半年经济发展工作要求"巩固"和"拓展"。 经济工作：下半年宏观政策总体保持延续性。关注全球经济政策之间的协同性，以及 中美经贸谈判的相对积极的可能性。 宏观政策：政策从"用好用足"转向"落实落细"；货币政策不再提"适时降准降息"；加力 经济大省挑大梁。 ■ 重点工作：降低风险，以我为主 内需：依然是重点。（1）在消费领域"深入实施"提振消费专项行动，且从方向上这部分 消费是来源于"保障改善民生"；从结构上除了"扩大"商品消费，也要"培育"服务消费。 （2）在投资领域，相比较 4 月份扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设，7 月 份政治局会议仅强调了高质量推动"两 ...

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全 体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十 五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。中共中央总书记习近平主持 会议。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发展环境面 临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多，同时我国经济基础稳、优势多、 韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场 优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识变应 变求变，集中力量办好自己的事，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略 任务取得重大突破。 会议强调，"十五五"时期经济社会发展要坚持马克思列宁主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论、"三个代 表"重要思想、科学发展观，全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，围绕全面建成社会主义现 代化强国、实现第二个百年奋斗目标，以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复 ...