智通财经4月22日电，IMF世界经济展望报告显示，由于政策不确定性和贸易紧张局势，预计2025年美 国经济增长将放缓至1.8%，比1月份的预测下降0.9个百分点。 ...

高盛CEO所罗门：随着特朗普贸易政策的实施，经济增长已放缓。 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Small Businesses - The U.S. government's high tariff policy has severely impacted small businesses, with some owners experiencing tax payments that have increased over 1000% [1][4] - A stationery store owner in Omaha reported that her recent import tax reached $1,108, a significant increase from the usual $70 to $100 [4] - The high tariffs are expected to lead to business closures, job losses, and economic downturns, as many businesses rely on imports [5] Group 2: Effects on Specific Industries - The tariff policy is projected to affect 90% of core baby care products in the U.S., which are produced in Asia, including items like baby bottles and strollers [5] - An American baby products company has halted some orders from Asia due to the new tariffs, leading to potential stock shortages in three months [5] - U.S. automakers, including Ford and General Motors, are also facing price increases on vehicles due to the tariffs, with GM's profit expectations for 2025 being cut by 40% [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Earnings Expectations - Analysts at Morgan Stanley are downgrading corporate earnings expectations due to significant risks of economic slowdown [2][8] - The expected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies has been reduced from 11.4% to 6.9% for the first quarter [8] - The breadth of earnings expectation adjustments is at an unusual level, indicating heightened uncertainty in the market [9] Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Major investment banks have collectively lowered their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index, with Citigroup reducing its target from 6,500 to 5,800 [10] - The recent market downturn may be the first bear market triggered directly by U.S. presidential policies, according to analysts [11] - Investors are increasingly looking for opportunities outside the U.S., as the MSCI index for developed countries excluding the U.S. has risen over 6% this year, while the S&P 500 has dropped by 10% [9]

Group 1: Tariff Policy Overview - Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on all trade partners, with an additional 34% tariff specifically on China[1] - This is the largest new tariff policy announced since Trump took office in January 2025, affecting numerous countries and regions[1] - Certain goods, including copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and energy, are exempt from these tariffs[1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The tariffs are expected to significantly exceed market expectations, potentially leading to a collapse of the global trade order and a slowdown in economic growth[2] - The U.S. economy may face short-term stagflation, while a mid-term global economic slowdown is increasingly likely[3] - China's reliance on exports has increased since 2018, making it vulnerable to the pressures from Trump's tariffs[3] Group 3: Domestic Policy Response - In response to the tariffs, domestic policies may shift towards monetary easing, including potential interest rate cuts and liquidity measures[4] - The focus will be on managing expectations rather than fiscal stimulus, with a priority on maintaining market confidence[4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should shift from high-risk tech stocks to defensive and safe assets, such as bonds and utilities[5] - Key sectors to focus on include gold, non-ferrous metals, and military industries due to the geopolitical instability caused by the tariffs[5]

当地时间周五，美国著名投资人巴菲特旗下投资机构伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司发布声明，否认关于"巴菲特支持特朗普关税政 策"的相关视频，称有关报道是"虚假的"。 据外媒报道，美国总统特朗普此前在其社交平台上分享了一段视频，该视频声称巴菲特赞扬特朗普正在做出50多年来"最 好的经济举措"。据悉，这一视频最初由一位社交媒体用户于3月13日发布，但在本周特朗普宣布了一系列超出预期的高 额关税政策后，该视频在网络上迅速传播开来。 伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司4月4日在一份声明中表示，"目前社交媒体上正在流传一些关于巴菲特言论的报道，所有这些报道都 是虚假的。" 伯克希尔辟谣。 有分析人士表示，巴菲特时常成为社媒的"造谣对象"，谣言经常虚假地声称他支持某项投资产品或某位政治候选人。 近日，特朗普向全球挥动关税大棒，全球金融市场陷入恐慌性抛售。当地时间周五，美股全线继续暴跌，道指、纳指、 标普500指数均跌超5%，而前一交易日，该三大指数分别跌超3%、5%、4%，纳指已跌进技术性熊市。统计数据显示， 两天时间内（4月3日—4日），美股市场蒸发近6.5万亿美元（折合人民币超47万亿元）的市值。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，特朗普的关税政策可能导致 ...

翁富豪：3.25晚间双线操作精准布局 黄金交易需严守风控纪律 美联储政策立场边际调整与地缘政治谈判进展正对贵金属市场形成双向施压。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克最新表态将年内降息预期由两次修正为一次，叠加 关税政策对通胀进程形成的掣肘效应，而美联储主席鲍威尔强化"按兵不动"政策定力，强调美国经济基本面保持韧性，系列鹰派信号显著施压黄金多头动 能。 但经济数据显示潜在矛盾：3月标普全球制造业PMI终值录得49.8，较前值下降0.6个点，创三个月新低，显示制造业收缩压力加剧。该数据强化市场对经济 增长放缓的预期，为避险资产提供潜在支撑。 从4小时图自新高出现了一轮回调，但目前似乎在3000美元大关出现心理支撑，技术指标低位金叉并向上运行。介于早盘黄金短线突破3015一线短线冲高， 黄金继续维持底部看多思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上翁富豪建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注3033-3035一线阻力，下方 短期重点关注3000-3002一线支撑，各位一定要跟上节奏。要控制好仓位及止损问题、严格设止损，切勿抗单操作。具体点位以盘中实时为主，欢迎前来体 验，交流实时行情，关注实时单。 操作策略： 1.黄金 ...

以下文章来源于懒猫的丰收日 ，作者懒猫的丰收日 作者：懒猫的丰收日 来源：雪球 说说印度，小伙伴讨论比较多，主要集中在"能不能抄底"上。 看行情，2024年9月见顶后，印度股市已经跌了5个多月，最大回撤是15%，跌到了去年上半年平台震荡的位 置，也难怪有人想去抄底。 能不能抄呢？从几个角度来了解下~ 01 懒猫的丰收日 . 手把手教你看懂基金的门道 长按即可免费加入哦 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 估值 问问DeepSeek，印度股市为什么跌？ 估值高是一个重要原因。 外资从印度股市撤离是出于两方面的担忧，一是印度经济增速放缓；二是估值高，即使按2025财年的预期收 益估算，MSCI印度指数的PE也有24倍。 24倍PE？ 看到这个数字，我的第一反应是印度股市估值太高了。同为新兴市场，我大A和越南都只有10倍左 右好吧，差了一倍，这么高的估值，难怪你下跌... 然后，我去拉了"印度SENSEX30指数"的历史估值，就是这张图，嗯？过去10年，印度股市的平均PE是24.25 倍，2022年6月上涨之前是21.47倍。 和自身历史数据对比，印度股市估值这也不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are reassessing whether the economic environment that supported nearly 25% annual gains in U.S. stocks over the past two years has significantly deteriorated [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - Wall Street is increasingly worried about signs of economic slowdown, with major stock indices experiencing declines due to escalating trade tensions and the imposition of tariffs [2][3]. - The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted with technology stocks, has dropped 7.5% since mid-February, while small-cap stocks and bank shares have also been severely impacted [4][12]. - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index saw its largest monthly decline since 2021, indicating weakening consumer sentiment [8]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The new tariffs imposed by Trump, including a 25% tariff on major trading partners, have led to increased uncertainty in the market, prompting investors to reevaluate their positions [3][5]. - Some businesses reported that the tariffs have resulted in higher product prices, contributing to inflationary pressures [9][10]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the tariff policy could reduce U.S. GDP by approximately 0.2% by 2025, a lesser impact compared to other countries like Canada [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 has declined about 5% from its historical high on February 19, with small-cap Russell 2000 down 9.4% since late January [12]. - Despite the market turmoil, defensive sectors like consumer staples have shown resilience, with Procter & Gamble's stock rising 0.4% during the week [12]. - The bond market has seen a strong rebound, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index recording a 2.7% return year-to-date, driven by price increases and interest income [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the bond market's recovery, citing persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may limit the potential for significant interest rate cuts [16]. - The future trajectory of bonds will depend on inflation, interest rate policies, and the evolving trade stance of the Trump administration [17].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced significant fluctuations last week, with COMEX copper prices being influenced by tariff discussions and weak economic data from the U.S., leading to a bearish sentiment in both gold and copper markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold fell by 2.79% and silver by 4.39% last week, while COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw declines of 0.6% and 0.43% respectively [2]. - The overall market was chaotic, with copper prices initially rebounding but later retreating due to weak economic indicators from the U.S. [3][5]. Group 2: Tariff Investigation and Economic Outlook - The initiation of a tariff investigation on copper by the Trump administration sparked market interest, but subsequent weak economic data led to a strong expectation of economic slowdown, putting pressure on copper prices [3][4]. - U.S. recession fears resurfaced as economic data, including real estate and consumer confidence, showed unexpected weakness, contributing to a decline in gold prices [4][14]. Group 3: Copper Market Analysis - COMEX copper prices exhibited wide fluctuations, with a contango structure in the price curve, indicating a potential for inventory accumulation in the future [5][6]. - The copper concentrate market is experiencing high demand, but supply remains stable, with a notable seasonal decline in port inventories [8][10]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Review - Gold and silver prices faced downward pressure, with COMEX gold trading between $2844 and $2974 per ounce, and silver between $31.3 and $33.5 per ounce [14]. - The gold-silver ratio increased, indicating a stronger performance of gold relative to silver, while gold prices showed a stronger decline compared to oil prices [16][20]. Group 5: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased to 39.26 million ounces, while silver inventory rose to approximately 40.86 million ounces [23]. - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased, with the long position ratio dropping to around 61.9%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [26].

中国的结婚对数在2000年代后半期急剧增加，2013年达到1346万对的峰值后开始减少。最大的结构性原 因是经济负担重。有专家预测，中国2025年的出生人数将比上年大幅减少2成左右…… 中国的结婚对数持续下降。中国民政部最近公布的2024年结婚登记数为610万对，同比减少2成。买房等 经济负担使得年轻人远离婚姻，过去10年里结婚登记数下降到一半以下。有专家预测，中国2025年的出 生人数将比上年大幅减少2成左右。 中国的结婚对数在经历了高速经济增长的2000年代后半期急剧增加，2013年达到1346万对的峰值后开始 减少，但2023年由于结束严格的防疫措施以及是被认为是生育吉年龙年的前一年，结婚登记数10年来首 次增长。 2024年却大幅回落，创下中国国家统计局自1985年开始发布数据以来的最低纪录。 在中国，登记结婚的男女中，20~39岁的人占8成左右。尽管这个年龄段的人口在过去10年左右增长了1 成，但整体结婚对数却大幅减少。 大连一处公园内的相亲角（2月中旬） 在中国，公园经常成为征婚场所。每周都到这个公园为女儿征婚的曹先生（60岁）表示，"我女儿是做 护士的，快40岁了，回到家就玩手机，真让人发愁"。 ...