智通财经12月26日讯（编辑 夏军雄）周五，美股三大股指期货涨跌不一，道指期货小幅下跌， 纳斯达克100指数期货小幅上涨，标普500指数期货在平盘附 近波动。 | ■ US 30 | 48,665.00 | 48 | | --- | --- | --- | | 틀 US 500 | 6,931.20 | 6 | | .. | ( | A = | （来源：英为财情） 从周度表现来看，标普500指数本周上涨1.4%，有望在最近五周内第四次实现周线上涨。道指和纳指本周迄今也均上涨逾1%。 华尔街刚刚经历了一场创纪录的交易日。周三，标普500指数盘中和收盘价均创下历史新高。由于圣诞假期，美国股市周四休市。 Fundstrat技术策略主管马克·牛顿（Mark Newton）表示："2025年即将结束，今年利好因素略多于利空因素。尽管市场普遍围绕着'AI泡沫'、关税担忧，以及 政府停摆、关税和通胀引发的波动，但截至目前，美股市场基本无视了这些担忧，在2025年末继续走高。" 据报道，丰田汽车公司计划把2026年全球产量设定为超过1000万辆。此举旨在应对混合动力车（HV）在北美等地持续增长的需求。该汽车制造商2025年全 ...

Group 1: US Bond Market Trends - The US bond market is expected to experience significant volatility in 2025, influenced by factors such as Trump's return to power, inflation pressures, and the impact of AI on market dynamics [1][8][9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield saw dramatic fluctuations, dropping to 3.8% in early April before rising to 4.6% after Trump's tariff announcements, and then stabilizing around 4.2% later in the year [1][9][11] - The 30-year US Treasury bond has shown remarkable stability, with yields remaining unchanged around 4.8% throughout 2025, despite various macroeconomic challenges [11][12] Group 2: European and Japanese Bond Markets - European bond markets are facing rising yields due to political instability and increasing debt issuance, particularly in Germany and France, where yields have reached new highs [2][14] - Japan's bond market is experiencing a surge in yields driven by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes and substantial fiscal stimulus, leading to a significant increase in long-term bond yields [15][17] Group 3: Corporate Bond Market Dynamics - The corporate bond market, particularly for high-rated tech companies like Oracle and Meta, has seen increased volatility, with yields rising above junk bond levels due to heavy borrowing for AI infrastructure [3][21] - Asset-backed securities (ABS) and high-yield corporate bonds have outperformed high-rated corporate bonds since November, attracting global investors seeking safer options amid market turmoil [3][35] Group 4: Future Predictions for 2026 - Predictions for 2026 suggest a shift in bond market dynamics, with long-term US Treasuries expected to outperform short-term bonds due to anticipated inflation stabilization and a potential dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [27][31] - High-yield bonds and ABS are projected to gain favor in 2026, benefiting from a macroeconomic environment characterized by soft landings and moderate interest rate cuts [33][35]

Group 1: AI Bubble and Market Valuation - The current valuation levels of US stocks, particularly in the AI sector, are approaching those seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble, raising concerns about sustainability [2] - Analysts predict a 10-13% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, with a 15% growth expected in 2026, but there are doubts whether this growth can support current valuations [2] - If major tech companies fail to deliver expected returns from AI investments, market confidence could collapse, leading to significant economic repercussions [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - The top 20% of wealthy households in the US hold 70% of financial assets, and their spending accounts for nearly half of total US consumption [3] - A collapse of the AI bubble could lead to a rapid decrease in wealth for these households, resulting in a sharp contraction in consumer spending and a potential recession [3] Group 3: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - The construction of AI infrastructure has created numerous jobs, but a sudden halt in AI investment could lead to widespread job losses and a rise in unemployment [4] - Stricter immigration policies are exacerbating labor shortages, which could lead to increased wage inflation and further economic instability [5] Group 4: Fiscal and Trade Risks - The US federal budget deficit reached $1.8 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][7] - Proposed "tariff rebates" by the Trump administration could exacerbate the deficit, especially if they are not supported by corresponding revenue [6][7] Group 5: Federal Reserve Independence - The potential political influence over the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, leading to uncontrolled inflation and rising long-term interest rates [10][11] - A loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve could result in a significant decline in the value of the US dollar and increased capital flight [12] Group 6: Bond Market Trust Crisis - The US federal deficit is expected to remain high, and any loss of investor confidence could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, affecting global financial stability [13] - European countries are also facing similar challenges, with rising defense spending and increasing public debt levels [14][15] Group 7: Japanese Policy and Global Impact - Japan's recent interest rate hikes could disrupt global financial markets, particularly affecting yen carry trades that have significant implications for liquidity [16][17] - A potential "rate hike-recession" cycle in Japan could further complicate global economic conditions [17] Group 8: Gold Valuation Risks - The significant disparity between the market value and the official valuation of US gold reserves poses risks if the government decides to revalue these assets [18][19] - A revaluation could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve [19][20] Group 9: Geopolitical Risks - The shift in US foreign policy could lead to increased volatility in global markets, particularly concerning energy prices and supply chains [21][22] - Ongoing conflicts in regions like the Middle East and Africa could disrupt critical trade routes, impacting global economic stability [23][25] Group 10: European Political Fragmentation - The rise of far-right parties in Europe and the erosion of EU unity could lead to increased political instability and economic challenges [26][27] - The potential for member states to act independently could weaken the EU's collective decision-making power and exacerbate existing tensions [28] Group 11: Private Credit Market Risks - The private credit market has grown significantly, but rising default rates and financial instability could lead to a broader financial crisis [29][30] - A collapse in this market could trigger a chain reaction affecting traditional financial systems and investor confidence [30]

华尔街老将埃德.亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)一直是本十年最乐观的市场叙事之一——"咆哮的二十年代"的先行 倡导者。他认为，这一时代将由经济韧性、强劲的企业盈利，以及与数字革命和人工智能相关的生产率 提升所驱动。 在近期一次访谈中，亚德尼重申了他的两大预测：标普500指数在2026年达到7700点，并在2029年达到 10000点。但更引人注目的是他并行的另一个预测：黄金价格也可能在本十年末达到每盎司10000美元。 标普10000点路线图：先看盈利，再看市盈率 亚德尼的10000点预测并非一个空洞的口号，而是一条基于盈利和估值的路径。 他的出发点是标普500指数今年的每股经营盈利大约在270美元附近，明年将升至约300-310美元(他指出 市场共识预期已在此区间)。在此基础上，他的长期框架认为盈利可以持续显著增长——每年增加"数十 美元"——到2030年可能达到约500美元每股。 如果2029年末的市场展望2030年盈利，并应用大约20倍的市盈率(他的粗略区间为18-22倍)，则会接近那 个标题数字：500美元×20=10000点 在他看来，关键问题不在于盈利能否增长——亚德尼认为在利润率保持稳健的情况下这 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 标普500指数创下历史新高，A股沪指日线七连阳，全球市场在2025年底上演了一出精彩纷呈的年终行 情。 美东时间12月24日，美股在圣诞前夜的交易日中普遍上涨，道琼斯指数上涨0.6%至48731.16点，标普 500指数上涨0.32%至6932.05点，创下历史新高。 同一时间，亚洲股市也迎来积极表现。上证指数收于3959.62点，上涨0.47%，实现日线七连阳。 01 全球市场动态 圣诞节前，全球金融市场迎来了所谓的"圣诞老人行情"。纽约证券交易所在圣诞前夜提前收盘，并于圣 诞节全天休市。 标普500指数在12月24日创下了6932.05点的历史收盘新高。市场分析认为，传统上年末最后五个交易日 和新年前两个交易日通常会出现上涨行情。 欧洲市场方面，英国富时100指数微跌0.19%，法国CAC40指数几乎收平。亚洲市场中，日经225指数小 幅上涨0.13%，韩国KOSPI指数则下跌0.21%。 03 市场热点聚焦 科创综指运行近一年来表现强劲，自2025年1月20日正式发布至12月25日，涨幅达到48.35%，跑赢市场 主要宽基指数。该指数覆盖 ...

Group 1: AI Bubble Perspective - The current consensus is that the AI bubble exists, but discussions focus on its nature, with some considering it a "good bubble" driven by equity and productive factors, which are less dangerous [3] - Comparisons are made between the current AI landscape and the 2000 internet bubble, questioning whether the industry is in an early growth phase or nearing a frenzy similar to 1998-1999 [3][4] - The valuation of leading tech companies today, such as Nvidia, is more aligned with their earnings compared to the inflated PE ratios seen during the internet bubble [4] Group 2: Future Predictions for AI Industry - Open-source AI is expected to be sustainable, as the perceived high costs of model development are not as significant as initially thought, and open-source can create ecosystems that enhance model evolution [6] - The industry will see both mergers and acquisitions as well as innovation in niche applications, with Chinese companies likely to show stronger competitiveness by 2026 [6][7] - Major commercial pain points remain, with product retention and usage duration needing improvement through continuous iteration and refinement [7] Group 3: AI Applications and Trends - AI smartphones are anticipated to become a significant competitive factor, potentially disrupting existing platforms and requiring regulatory clarity on privacy and data issues [7][8] - The integration of AI with robotics is promising, leveraging China's existing hardware and manufacturing expertise to enhance intelligent applications [8] - The risk of AI facing a similar fate as 5G, where expectations exceed user adoption, is acknowledged, particularly regarding the sustainability of investments in data centers [8] Group 4: Individual Adaptation in the AI Era - Maintaining independent thinking is crucial, as AI can perpetuate existing biases and errors, emphasizing the need for critical engagement with AI outputs [11] - Continuous learning and embracing new productivity tools are essential for individuals to remain relevant in the evolving job market [12] - Focusing on the impact of AI within one's specific industry and adapting skills accordingly is recommended to mitigate career anxiety [13]

2025年，人工智能（AI）仍然是贯穿全球市场最核心的叙事之一。年初至12月19日收盘，美股"七巨 头"凭借AI布局持续领跑全球。标普500指数中科技股的权重已攀升至历史极值，进一步放大了市场对 AI泡沫是否会破裂的担忧。 当市场紧盯美股泡沫时，日本央行近日宣布加息，试图在通胀风险与生产力滞后之间寻找平衡。与此同 时，受地缘政治紧张、美国贸易政策等影响，泰国、菲律宾等市场都面临增长乏力的问题。而投资者对 印度的信心正在升温。 2026年，全球市场格局又将如何演变？对此，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）近日采访了 投资研究公司Alpine Macro首席量化策略师Henry Wu、野村全球宏观研究主管苏博文、野村亚洲（除日 本外）及印度首席经济学家Sonal Varma，以及巴克莱银行日本外汇及利率策略主管Shinichiro Kadota进 行解读。 美国：美股处AI泡沫初期，距离顶部还有一段距离 对于美国市场，尤其是由"七巨头"领航、AI驱动的科技板块，估值问题已成为悬在投资者头顶的"达摩 克利斯之剑"。 "按照市盈率（P/E）、周期性调整市盈率（CAPE ratio）以及市销率（Price-to- ...

2025年，人工智能（AI）仍然是贯穿全球市场最核心的叙事之一。年初至12月19日收盘，美股"七巨 头"凭借AI布局持续领跑全球。标普500指数中科技股的权重已攀升至历史极值，进一步放大了市场对 AI泡沫是否会破裂的担忧。 当市场紧盯美股泡沫时，日本央行近日宣布加息，试图在通胀风险与生产力滞后之间寻找平衡。与此同 时，受地缘政治紧张、美国贸易政策等影响，泰国、菲律宾等市场都面临增长乏力的问题，而投资者对 印度的信心正在升温。 2026年，全球市场格局将如何演变？对此，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）近日采访了投 资研究公司Alpine Macro首席量化策略师Henry Wu、野村全球宏观研究主管苏博文、野村亚洲（除日本 外）及印度首席经济学家Sonal Varma，以及巴克莱银行日本外汇及利率策略主管Shinichiro Kadota进行 解读。 美国：美股或处AI泡沫初期与顶部还有一段距离 对于美国市场，尤其是由"七巨头"领航、AI驱动的科技板块，估值问题已成为悬在投资者头顶的"达摩 克利斯之剑"。 "按照市盈率、周期性调整市盈率以及市销率等多数传统估值指标衡量，美股市场无疑处于历史高位区 间。" ...

2025年，人工智能(AI)仍然是贯穿全球市场最核心的叙事之一。年初至12月19日收盘，美股"七巨头"凭 借AI布局持续领跑全球。标普500指数中科技股的权重已攀升至历史极值，进一步放大了市场对AI泡沫 是否会破裂的担忧。 当市场紧盯美股泡沫时，日本央行近日宣布加息，试图在通胀风险与生产力滞后之间寻找平衡。与此同 时，受地缘政治紧张、美国贸易政策等影响，泰国、菲律宾等市场都面临增长乏力的问题，而投资者对 印度的信心正在升温。 回顾历史，Henry Wu描绘了大型科技泡沫后期阶段的典型特征：市场往往伴随着反复的、剧烈的回 调，每一次回调都促使空头们高呼"顶部已到"，但紧随其后的V型复苏又迫使这些早期怀疑论者缴械投 降，直至市场弥漫着"这次不一样"的论调。 2026年，全球市场格局将如何演变？对此，《每日经济新闻》记者(以下简称每经记者)近日采访了投资 研究公司Alpine Macro首席量化策略师Henry Wu、野村全球宏观研究主管苏博文、野村亚洲(除日本外) 及印度首席经济学家Sonal Varma，以及巴克莱银行日本外汇及利率策略主管Shinichiro Kadota进行解 读。 美国：美股或处AI泡沫初 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 2026 海外，从贬值交易到加息魅影 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之九 ►海外经济：软着陆 2026 年受益于美联储降息，高利率对可贸易品的压制效应消 失，叠加补库需求释放，全球制造业有望延续温和修复过程。 美国经济受益于货币+财政双宽松，过热风险较低，处于软着 陆模式。 ►货币：美联储可能降息 100bp 市场预期美联储 2026 年降息约 50-60bp。但美联储面临双重 压力，降息幅度可能达到 100bp。一是美国联邦政府试图降低 政府债务融资成本，在 2026 可能有效削弱美联储独立性。二 是美国劳动力市场面临下行风险，同时通胀统计数字被劳工部 低估，支持美联储下调利率。 ►财政：赤字增量在欧洲 美国或在 2026 年维持 6%左右的赤字率，而德国将赤字率提 升约 0.9 个百分点至 4%。这可能推动美元相对欧元贬值。 ►风险：降息周期尾声的"加息"魅影 1995-1996、1997-1998 两次软着陆+降息情景，一旦美联储 接近降息周期尾声，加息预期往往快速 ...