Group 1: Report Core View - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to heat up, driving precious metal prices to fluctuate at high levels. The market's risk aversion sentiment has significantly increased due to doubts about the Fed's independence, supporting the safe - haven premium of gold. Silver's trading logic is mainly driven by the future easing expectation, and it is expected to continue the upward trend with the regression logic of the gold - silver ratio [1][8] Group 2: Market Analysis - New York Fed President Williams said that it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, strengthening the market's expectation of future easing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview 11 "very strong" candidates for the Fed Chairman starting next month, and the selection will be announced this fall. The Trump administration is studying a plan to exert more influence on the 12 regional Fed banks [1] Group 3: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 27, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.68 yuan/gram, closing at 781.16 yuan/gram, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day. The night - session closing price was 784.16 yuan/gram, a 0.38% increase from the afternoon closing. The opening price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9300.00 yuan/kilogram, closing at 9305.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The night - session closing price was 9327 yuan/kilogram, a 0.24% decrease from the afternoon closing [2] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 27, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.234%, remaining flat from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.623%, also remaining flat [3] Group 5: Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On August 27, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions changed by 0 hands. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 192052 hands, a change of 8.75% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 hands, and short positions changed by - 2 hands. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 447460 hands, a change of - 5.65% from the previous trading day [4] Group 6: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 962.5 tons, an increase of 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15274.7 tons, a decrease of 14.12 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 7: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 27, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.85 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 740.85 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 83.95, a change of 0.53% from the previous trading day. The foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 87.79, a change of - 1.49% from the previous trading day [6] Group 8: Fundamental Data - On August 27, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27306 kilograms, a change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 354762 kilograms, a change of 30.65% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8614 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 330 kilograms [7] Group 9: Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and upward - trending pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 810 yuan/gram. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is expected to continue the upward trend, with the Ag2508 contract oscillating between 9100 yuan/kilogram and 9600 yuan/kilogram. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - Options: Postpone [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the legal battle arising from President Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting the implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve and potential impacts on monetary policy [1][14]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue President Trump, claiming he lacks the authority to dismiss her without just cause, as defined by the Federal Reserve Act [1][2]. - If Cook files the lawsuit, it may ultimately be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court, as the Federal Reserve Act stipulates that a president can only remove a board member for "just cause" [2]. - Cook can seek an injunction to restore her position while the lawsuit is ongoing [3]. Group 2: Allegations and Responses - The dismissal was based on allegations of Cook making false statements in mortgage applications, which were cited by Trump in his notification of her removal [5][6]. - Cook responded to the allegations, asserting that there is no legal basis for her dismissal and that she intends to continue her duties [6]. Group 3: Implications for the Federal Reserve - This incident marks the first time a U.S. president has attempted to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [7][14]. - Trump's actions are seen as an escalation in his efforts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, potentially affecting monetary policy decisions [14][15]. - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he would gain a majority on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board, which could lead to a shift in policy direction towards lower interest rates [15]. Group 4: Broader Context - The article notes that Cook is not the only official facing scrutiny over mortgage issues, indicating a broader trend of investigations into financial conduct among public officials [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the political interference in the Federal Reserve, particularly the dismissal of Lisa Cook by President Trump, which is seen as a threat to the Fed's independence and could have significant implications for global financial markets [1][3]. - Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticized Trump's actions as illegal and dangerous, warning that they could undermine the credibility of U.S. monetary policy both domestically and internationally [3][1]. - Yellen highlighted Trump's insistence on interest rate cuts to alleviate the burden of the $37 trillion government debt, suggesting that such actions could lead to disastrous consequences [3]. Group 2 - The current market conditions for gold indicate a potential breakout from a converging triangle pattern, with significant price levels at $3400 and $3350, which will determine the market's direction [5][7]. - Technical analysis suggests that if gold closes above $3400, it may lead to a bullish trend, potentially reaching historical highs, while a close below $3350 could indicate a bearish outlook [7][5]. - The market is currently influenced by external factors such as tariffs and geopolitical tensions, but the primary concern remains the challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence, which could significantly impact gold prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve is escalating, with significant implications for the Fed's independence and monetary policy direction [2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's actions, including the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, are seen as unprecedented attacks on the Fed's independence, potentially leading to higher inflation and decreased credibility [9][10]. - Analysts warn that if Trump successfully alters the composition of the Federal Reserve Board, it could lead to a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy, undermining the Fed's traditional data-driven approach [10][11]. Group 2: Impact on Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's current stance remains moderately restrictive, with officials indicating that rate cuts may be appropriate in the future, depending on economic conditions [3][4]. - The potential for Trump to influence the selection of regional Fed presidents could significantly impact monetary policy decisions, particularly if he gains a majority on the Fed Board [7][11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The bond market has begun to show signs of distortion, with a steepening yield curve indicating rising inflation expectations and risk premiums due to perceived threats to the Fed's independence [4][11]. - Despite current market calmness, there is a growing concern that the political influence over the Fed could lead to increased volatility and higher inflation in the long term [10].

Core Viewpoint - The market's muted reaction to President Trump's unprecedented dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor indicates a lack of heightened concern, despite the significant challenge to the independence of the central bank [1] Group 1: Market Pricing and Reactions - The event has already been priced into the market, as Trump's previous criticisms of the Federal Reserve and his desire for lower interest rates were well-known [2] - Trump is expected to control the Federal Reserve Board by May next year, having already appointed three governors, which diminishes the immediate impact of the dismissal [3] - Lisa Cook, the dismissed governor, asserts that Trump lacks legal grounds for her termination, potentially leading to a legal battle that could either reinforce or challenge the limits of presidential power [4] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Leadership - The focus on Cook may alleviate pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has been a target of Trump's criticism, as the market's attention shifts [5] - Current appointees to the Federal Reserve do not appear to be mere "yes men" for Trump, as their actions suggest a more nuanced approach to monetary policy [6] Group 3: Potential Risks and Market Behavior - Investors may consider strategies such as betting on short-term interest rate declines while anticipating rising long-term bond yields, reflecting concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence [7] - The market's calmness may stem from a belief that Trump will retract extreme measures in response to market sell-offs, although this assumption relies on the premise that significant market reactions will deter reckless actions [10]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continue to rise slightly as market risk aversion increases due to escalating tensions between the Federal Reserve and the White House, suggesting potential further gains in the short term [1] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump has raised concerns about the politicization of the Fed, threatening its independence and credibility in monetary policy [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing pressure at the $3401 level, with a potential short-term upward movement followed by a decline [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices showed weak performance with limited rebound, primarily due to OPEC+ production increases and slowing global economic growth, indicating a likely downward trend [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts a supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [3] - The International Energy Agency's latest report suggests that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in 2025 and 2026, exacerbating market imbalances [3] - The EIA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.28 million barrels per day this year, with a relatively small adjustment in demand, raising the surplus expectation to 1.64 million barrels per day [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines, indicating a potential downward ABC pattern, with short-term rebounds likely [5] - Technical analysis suggests that copper may face resistance at the $4.43 level in the near term [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating the start of a medium-term adjustment [6] - The index is under significant pressure from long-term moving averages, with expectations of new lows in the short term [6] - Resistance is noted at the 42550 level for the index [6]

文丨陆弃 一个帖子，惊掉全球金融的下巴。8月25日，特朗普在"真实社交"上甩出一封杀气腾腾的公开信，开口 就是"立即生效"，结尾就是"你被开除了"。这不是真人秀剧本，而是美联储111年历史上的第一次—— 总统"开除"现任理事。 被轰下台的，是拜登政府提名的美联储理事丽莎·库克。理由？特朗普说她两套房子、两个地址、两次 骗贷，是"潜在犯罪行为"。字里行间透着三个字：坐牢去。但问题是，哪来的法院裁定？哪来的罪名成 立？除了一个模糊不清的举报材料和一堆借口，特朗普没有等调查结果、没有听取证词，甚至没有通知 国会，直接下手，硬生生演了一场"审判在先、程序在后"的政治清洗。 这哪是法治？分明是宫斗剧。特朗普说罢你就罢你，不讲逻辑、不讲证据，只讲忠诚。从前是"不是自 己人就干掉"，现在干脆是"你不是未来会听我的人？那我先动手为敬"。 先不说库克罪名是否成立，就算她真有瑕疵，也应由司法部来办，依法提起诉讼、审理、裁定，再依法 建议罢免。这才是现代国家应有的程序。可特朗普跳过一切，直接下手，活生生把美联储理事当成了海 湖庄园的门房，今天心情不好了就可以踢出去。 而且这事真就这么巧？8月初，美联储另一名理事库格勒刚刚"主动辞职 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc investment rating: Oscillating weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - Zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,310 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,807 dollars/ton, up 0.05% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 114,993 lots, an increase of 21,819 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 8,014 lots, a decrease of 233 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 107,827 lots, a decrease of 891 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 192,457 lots, an increase of 964 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -4.61 dollars/ton, up 2.89 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 36,213 tons, a decrease of 153 tons; LME zinc inventory was 60,025 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons [1] News - The selection of the Fed Chairperson will be announced in autumn, with 11 potential candidates, and the final 3 - 4 candidates will be recommended after interviews [2] - Next week, the US Congress will have a crucial vote on the Fed's independence, which is highly politicized due to Trump's decision to fire Fed Governor Cook [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. The dovish expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in September is likely to dominate the market. The research team is optimistic about the medium - term trend of gold but warns that the recovery expectation from the strong performance of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, which is favorable for the gold trend. The current weak economic reality has not reversed, and the "interest - rate cut + fundamental downturn" stagflation - like combination is more beneficial to gold. If the situation changes to an "interest - rate cut + recovery" combination, silver will benefit more [2][4][7]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - Trump's executive order to double India's tariffs to 50% took effect. Starting from 00:01 on the 27th Eastern Time, the US imposed an additional 25% ad - valorem tariff on imported Indian goods, causing many US customers to cancel orders. - The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed. Trump claims to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office, and if approved by the court, he will have the opportunity to control a majority of seats on the seven - member Fed Board of Governors. - Fed's Williams is quite optimistic about the economic situation, stating that the Fed may still maintain a certain degree of restrictiveness after interest - rate cuts, and each meeting is full of uncertainties [3]. Price Logic - On Wednesday, gold continued its moderately strong and volatile trend, while silver weakened slightly. Concerns about the Fed's independence are intensifying, and the doubling of US - India tariffs has increased the long - term stagflation expectation in the US. The late - session decline of the domestic equity market has suppressed silver prices in the short term. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25BP interest - rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable [2][4]. Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between 3300 and 3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between 36 and 40 [7]. Index Data - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity was 2211.28, down 0.50%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2459.50, down 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2244.49, down 0.59%. The precious metals index was 2729.16, with a daily decline of 0.16%, a 5 - day increase of 1.02%, a 1 - month increase of 1.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.36% [46][48].

前纽约联储主席警告，特朗普罢免美联储理事或引发"不可设想的后果" 前纽约联储主席、瑞银集团非执行董事比尔·杜德利（Bill Dudley）27日撰文警告，市场低估了美国总统 特朗普罢免美联储理事库克的举动所带来的威胁。 "即使特朗普掌控美联储的可能性微乎其微，这一努力本身具有破坏性。而且一旦成功，后果不堪设 想。"杜德利补充道，"市场过于自满。" 诉讼程序箭在弦上 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特27日表示，尽管美联储理事库克计划就特朗普将其罢免一事提起 诉讼，她也应该暂时离开美联储的工作。 "如果我是她，处在她那样的境地，我会选择休假，"哈西特在白宫外对记者表示。 在被问及库克是否应在抵押贷款欺诈指控进入司法程序前，被推定无罪时，哈西特补充称，暂时休 假"是光明磊落的做法。" 市场分析认为，此案最终解释权或将诉诸美国最高法院。 杜德利认为，总统"因故"（for cause）解雇美联储理事将涉及漫长的法庭程序，并且可能需要提供其在 履行公务时存在渎职或玩忽职守的证据。即使证据确凿，即如政府声称的，库克在上任前申请住房贷款 时将两处不同住所同时申报为主要居所、因此违法——也很可能达不到"因故"这一标准。 根据 ...