美国经济现七大诡异信号：滞胀风险重来？普通人该如何应对？ 最近美国劳工部爆出个大新闻 —— 过去一年的非农就业数据居然被高估了整整 91 万个岗位，平均每个月多报 7.6 万。 表面看美国经济似乎稳住了，但这七个信号一扒，问题就藏不住了： 财政货币 "放水"：当年为越战搞赤字，现在为疫情大放水，联邦赤字占 GDP 超 6%，债务滚雪球； 环境紧张：当年冷战、民权运动，现在中美博弈、国内撕裂，经济不确定性加剧。 就业数据大反转：之前 "就业强劲" 是假象，实际八月新增岗位仅 2.2 万，失业率破 4%，和 2008 年危机前 "数据先好后修" 的苗头如出一辙。 GDP 增速掺 "虚火"：二季度 GDP 增 3.3%，但靠的是进口暴跌、透支储蓄消费，企业投资和出口都在降，像发着高烧靠止痛药硬撑。 美联储操作矛盾：一边放 "降息信号"，一边继续缩表，资产负债表从 9 万亿压到 6.7 万亿，逆回购余额几乎清零 —— 再这么抽银行准备金，2019 年 "钱荒" 可能重演。 黄金创历史新高：按通胀调整后，黄金价超 1980 年峰值，2024 年各国央行狂买 1045 吨，中国、俄罗斯都在增持，避险情绪拉满。 高管疯狂套 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, with a likely reduction of 25 basis points during the upcoming meeting, marking the first cut since December 2024 [2][3] - Institutional investors are concerned about the implications of the Fed's independence being challenged, which could affect long-term market stability and asset valuations [4][5] - The anticipated interest rate cuts may lead to increased foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, as the dollar faces systemic downward pressure [6][7] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged recently, driven by concerns over the Fed's independence and expectations of rate cuts, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 35% [5][6] - The weakening dollar and rising inflation expectations are contributing to a shift in global capital flows, potentially benefiting emerging markets like China [6][7] - The market is likely to price in the upcoming changes in domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) and corporate Return on Equity (ROE) as the Fed's leadership changes in 2026 [7]

美联储料将降息25个基点 【导读】 美联储即将重启降息， 外资或加速流入中国股市 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 当地时间9月16日至17日，美联储将举行议息会议。目前来看，美联储重启降息几无悬念，这将是自2024年12月以来首次降息。 新的周期，机构投资者更关心哪些问题？全球资产配置策略应如何调整？就此，全球机构投资者展开了讨论。 9月12日，美国8月通胀数据及周度申请失业金人数公布，至此，美联储议息会议前关键经济指标已全部公布。从数据来看，通胀受到关税 政策推动，劳动力市场趋弱。 品浩（PIMCO）董事总经理兼经济学家蒂芙尼·威尔丁（Tiffany Wilding）发布研报称，美联储9月将降息25个基点，50个基点的降幅也 可能在讨论范围内。品浩维持全年累计降息75个基点的预测，核心CPI通胀率到2025年底或上升至3.3%左右。 保德信（PGIM）固定收益副主席、首席全球经济师兼全球宏观经济研究主管达利普·辛格（Daleep Singh）预期，美国的通胀率在2026年 前仍将维持在3%以上，美联储预计将以每次25个基点的渐进式步伐推进降息，直至在明年达到3.0%~3.5%的中性利率区间。 独立性面临挑战 美联储 ...

北京时间9月15日晚，黄金再次大涨，一度涨1.5%，最高报3600.18美元/盎司，再创历史新高；截至发 稿，现货黄金报3592.67美元/盎司，涨幅为1.33%。今年至今，现货黄金已累计上涨976美元，涨幅高达 37%。 消息面上，9月5日，美国非农数据公布，大幅不及预期！8月非农就业人口增加2.2万人，远低于市场预 期的7.5万人。8月失业率为4.3%，创2021年以来新高。 继续疲软的就业数据市场对美联储9月降息的预期进一步提升。利率互换显示，交易员预计美联储在9月 会议上降息25个基点的概率达96%。 在不远处的一家六福柜台处，记者询价了解到，该品牌9月5日金饰挂牌价是1060元，与4日持平，同样 该品牌也有每克60元的优惠。 柜台销售在向记者介绍款式时称，趁着现在没有调整价格可以入手，过几天说不定品牌的一口价黄金产 品都要调价。"因为黄金已经连涨了，产品现在还是原来的价格，过几天也要跟着上调的。" 能否入场 国际经济冲突不断，全球通胀走升，投资黄金用于对冲通胀、实现资产保值的需求上升。 本轮黄金价格上涨的重要信用制度因素是美元关键货币地位的削弱和因此而带来的国际货币体系动荡。 有人一口气买了20多万 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The announcement of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has significantly reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impacting market sentiment and reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The ceasefire is set to last for 12 hours, with both parties confirming their acceptance of the agreement mediated by Qatar, contrasting with previous military actions that raised tensions [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the ceasefire announcement, spot gold prices fell to $3342.59 per ounce, breaking below the $3350 mark, reflecting diminished safe-haven demand [1][3] - International oil prices also declined, with a drop of up to 6%, reaching a two-week low of $64.38 per barrel, indicating a significant easing of concerns regarding energy supply disruptions [1][3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a more dovish monetary policy has become a focal point, with Vice Chair Bowman suggesting possible rate cuts as early as July due to labor market concerns [4][5] - Despite the dovish signals, the immediate impact on gold prices is overshadowed by the reduction in geopolitical risk, with market pricing indicating a 23% probability of a rate cut in July, rising to 80% and 92% for September and October, respectively [4][5] Group 4: Economic Data and Inflation Risks - Recent economic data shows a slowdown in U.S. business activity, with rising input costs attributed to tariffs, and a slight year-on-year increase in existing home sales, indicating weak demand [5][6] - ING warns that renewed tensions in the Middle East could lead to rising oil prices, which may increase inflationary pressures and complicate the Fed's ability to implement monetary easing [7] Group 5: Market Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that gold may test the $3300 support level, influenced by geopolitical developments and Fed policy divergence [8] - In the long term, uncertainties in the global economy, including trade protectionism and inflation pressures, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [8][10]