Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to 97, with an intraday increase of 0.05% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周金价触底回升，纽约金重返 3350 美元关口，沪金拉升至 775 元上方。美国关税预期 升温叠加降息预期升温 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, highlighting a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market and the need for diversified asset allocation in a weak dollar scenario [2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies for Chinese Markets - A-shares and H-shares are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern, with potential upward space due to improved fundamentals and profit expectations [12][11]. - The technology sector, particularly in 5G, robotics, and AI applications, is anticipated to yield excess returns, supported by increased capital inflow from southbound funds [12][11]. - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend state-owned enterprises as defensive assets while also investing in technology and consumer sectors [13][14]. Group 2: Currency Outlook - The RMB is projected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, supported by a stable domestic economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15][18]. - The current account surplus is expected to maintain around 1% of GDP, providing a solid foundation for RMB stability [15][18]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy Predictions - Fiscal policy will focus on growth support and structural optimization, with an emphasis on social welfare, green transition, and new productivity [17]. - Monetary policy is likely to remain moderately loose, with potential for one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio cut within the year [18][19]. Group 4: Impact of U.S. Policies - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may raise concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, potentially leading to increased market volatility and long-term economic challenges [21][22]. - The Federal Reserve's focus may shift from inflation control to growth preservation, with expected interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [22][23]. Group 5: Global Asset Allocation Strategies - A declining dollar index may relieve global debt burdens and shift capital flows towards non-dollar assets, increasing demand for gold, euros, and RMB [25][26]. - A diversified global stock allocation is recommended, with an emphasis on emerging markets and alternative investments as attractive options [26][27].

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have garnered significant attention, particularly among investors and collectors [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a strong US dollar, changes in inflation expectations, and adjustments in capital flows due to shifts in Federal Reserve interest rate policies [2] - Investors are advised to adopt either a long-term holding strategy or a short-term trading approach based on their individual goals and risk tolerance [3] Price Analysis - On July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold price of 771.12 RMB per gram, down by 4.69 RMB from the previous trading day, reflecting a decrease of approximately 0.605% [1] - The price fluctuation range for that day was between 767.12 RMB per gram and 774.79 RMB per gram [1] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices is typically negative; a stronger dollar often leads to lower gold prices [2] - Investors should closely monitor international economic conditions and monetary policy developments to understand potential impacts on gold prices [2] Investment Strategies - Long-term investors view gold as an effective hedge against inflation, making short-term price fluctuations less significant [3] - Case studies illustrate that frequent trading can lead to missed opportunities for price rebounds, emphasizing the importance of a well-defined investment strategy [3] Domestic vs. International Gold Pricing - The domestic gold market primarily prices gold in RMB per gram, while the international market uses USD per ounce, leading to price discrepancies influenced by exchange rates and market dynamics [5] - Domestic gold prices may lag behind international movements due to local tax policies and import/export restrictions [5] Gold Purity and Purchase Considerations - Gold purity is a critical factor in determining value, with common standards being 999 (99.9% purity) and 9999 (99.99% purity) [5] - Investors are advised to verify the purity of gold products and prefer certified products from recognized exchanges to ensure quality and authenticity [5] Rational Investment Approach - The recent price decline should not incite panic among investors, as price volatility is a normal market behavior [7] - Successful gold investment requires clear objectives, a sound strategy, and ongoing market monitoring to adjust plans as necessary [7]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to multiple factors, including domestic economic recovery and macroeconomic policies, with expectations for continued stability and potential mild appreciation in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 4, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.1643, an increase of 58 basis points from the previous close [1]. - In the first half of the year, the onshore and offshore RMB to USD exchange rates rose by 1.82% and 2.45%, respectively [1]. - The RMB to USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 298 basis points in the first half of the year [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - The decline of the US dollar index by 10.79% in the first half of the year contributed to the strengthening of the RMB [2]. - Domestic policies aimed at counter-cyclical adjustments provided significant support for the RMB exchange rate [2]. - The narrowing gap between onshore, offshore, and central parity rates indicates a potential convergence of these rates, suggesting a more stable exchange environment [2]. Group 3: Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - Experts predict that the RMB may experience mild appreciation due to favorable external and internal factors [2]. - Continued domestic growth policies are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the exchange rate [2]. - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foreign exchange market, including the introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures trading, which may further support the RMB's stability [3]. Group 4: Market Resilience and Risk Management - The maturity and rationality of market participants have improved, with the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging rising to around 30% [3]. - The ability to manage exchange rate fluctuations has significantly increased, bolstering confidence in maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate [3].

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, driven by a rebound in household employment from -696,000 to 93,000[2][5] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly, with an increase of only 74,000 jobs, down from 137,000 in May[8] Wage and Labor Market Trends - Hourly wage growth on a year-over-year basis decreased to 3.7%, down from 3.8% in May[9] - The average weekly hours worked fell to 34.2 hours, a decrease of 0.1 hours from the previous month[16] - Labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%[17] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for July have decreased, with market pricing reflecting a cumulative cut of 51 basis points by 2025, down from 61 basis points[2][5] - The report indicates potential risks to employment growth in Q3 due to tariffs and immigration slowdowns, leading to a forecast of two preventive rate cuts in September and December[5][6] - The NFIB's hiring intentions suggest an increased risk of weakening job growth in the coming months[10]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market showed strong performance in June, with job additions exceeding market expectations, boosting confidence in economic resilience and driving up the dollar and major U.S. stock indices [1][2] Employment Report Highlights - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, and revised May data to 144,000 [2] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, the lowest level since February 2025 [2] - Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, both below May's growth and market expectations [2] - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, the lowest since 2022, raising concerns about the breadth of economic recovery [2] - Private sector job growth was weak, adding only 74,000 jobs, the lowest since October 2024 [2] - Manufacturing employment continued to decline, indicating pressure in certain economic sectors [2] Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the dollar strengthened, with the USD index rising approximately 0.6% [5] - Major U.S. stock indices reached new highs during intraday trading but showed caution near the close as investors digested signals of slowing wage growth and declining labor participation [5] - Macro uncertainties remain, particularly with the upcoming expiration of U.S. tariff suspensions on July 9, raising concerns about potential trade risks [5] Interest Rate Outlook - Despite the mixed signals in the employment data, the overall strong performance has led to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline [2] - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 66.7%, slightly down from earlier in the week, while the probability of maintaining rates in July has risen to 94.8% [4]

受强于预期的非农数据打压，周四（7月3日），国际金价冲高回落，日K线呈现小阴线形态，结束前期 三连阳的震荡回升走势。预计短线金价将陷入震荡回落之中，继续在3300美元整数关口附近震荡。 基本面上看，超强的非农就业数据，显示美国劳动力市场韧性犹存，推迟了市场对美联储的降息预期， 美元指数强势回升，黄金则受阻回落。 美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，6月非农就业人口增加14.7万，远超市场预期的11万，前值从13.9万上 修至14.4万。失业率意外下降至4.1%，低于市场预期的4.3%和前值的4.2%。此外，当周初请失业金人数 也略低于预期；5月贸易逆差收窄至964.2亿美元。 在美联储降息预期减弱的同时，中东地区局势整体相对缓和，也使得短期内黄金市场缺乏重要信息刺 激，维持在3300美元关口附近的反复震荡的概率增大。 技术上看，金价在3250美元附近止跌之后，连续三连阳的回升，把金价从布林带下轨拉升至布林带中轨 附近，然而，在3365美元一线受阻，并短线回落，导致金价再次向下调整的可能性增加。从目前走势来 看，金价中短期均线黏合，没有明显的方向趋势，震荡横盘可能是主要态势。同时今日（7月4日）美国 市场提前休市，也 ...

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 110,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, primarily due to a rebound in household employment from -696,000 to 93,000[1] - The labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points, potentially due to immigration policies[1] Wage and Hourly Earnings - Hourly wage growth slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%[1] - The three-month annualized growth rate of hourly wages decreased from 3.6% to 3.2%[5] - Average weekly hours worked fell to 34.2 hours, down from 34.3 hours[6] Sector Performance - Private sector job growth weakened, with a decline of 63,000 jobs to 74,000 in June, particularly in the service sector[5] - Government employment surged, contributing over half of the new jobs, with state and local government jobs rising significantly from 32,000 to 80,000[5] - The service sector saw a notable slowdown, with education and healthcare services declining by 32,000 jobs to 51,000[5] Market Implications - Due to the stronger-than-expected employment data, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July decreased, with market pricing for cumulative rate cuts in 2025 falling by 10 basis points to 51 basis points[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year and 10-year yields increasing by 12 basis points and 8 basis points, respectively, to 3.88% and 4.34%[1]

Group 1: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [3] - This strong employment data indicates the resilience of the U.S. economy, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [3] - Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which reflects ongoing tightness in the labor market [3] Group 2: Dollar Strength and Oil Prices - The robust employment data has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which is now around 97, providing cost support for oil priced in dollars [2][3] - The market's expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to around 80% [2] Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Geopolitical Risks - OPEC+ is set to discuss a plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August during their meeting on July 6, marking the fourth consecutive month of exceeding production expectations [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose by 450,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, reaching a new high in over a year, indicating a proactive approach to releasing production capacity [4] - The geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reducing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East [4]