江苏省是我国人口"最老"的省份之一，九年之前就启动了长护险试点，并成为我国为数不多的已实现长护险制度区域全覆盖的省份。 编者按：经过九年的试点探索，长期护理保险这一社保"第六险"即将在全国范围内正式推开。自2016年首批15个国家城市试点以来，长护险已覆盖49个试点 城市，累计260余万失能参保人享受待遇，基金支出超800亿元。这项制度的全面实施，不仅关乎数千万失能人员的切身福祉，更将深刻重塑我国养老服务格 局，撬动万亿级银发经济新蓝海。 在试点收官、全国推开的这一关键时刻，第一财经将与政策制定者、照护行业从业者、受益者等做深入交流，总结地方探索的宝贵经验，前瞻制度落地可能 面临的新挑战，共同见证我国养老保障体系的历史性升级。 家住徐州市鼓楼区拾屯街道杨西村的失能老人陈先生，可能自己也没有想到，卧床不起两年之后，还能再一次站立起来。 两年前，陈先生因脑梗后遗症重度失能，连最简单的日常动作都需要别人帮忙。2023年7月，来自徐州市社康老年服务中心的长护险护理员石师傅开始上门 提供服务，严格按照康复流程为老人做肢体训练，从肌肉张力逐渐恢复，到能在搀扶下坐立，再到如今短暂的站立，陈先生的身体机能明显得以改善。 陈先 ...

新华社北京5月15日电 观察人士注意到，伴随晚婚晚育现象，韩国越来越多夫妇因年龄偏大、平衡 家庭与事业的压力太大等因素，仅愿意要一个孩子，生二、三孩的意愿显著降低。 现阶段，韩国母亲生育一孩的平均年龄为33.5岁，在经合组织成员国中最高。经合组织成员国的平 均数据为30.9岁。 一名44岁的韩国母亲近期接受媒体采访时说，她属于晚婚，36岁生育一孩，今年曾短暂考虑过是否 要二孩，但是最终放弃了这一念头。她在重要管理岗位任职，"我担心自己是否能健康分娩，也担心是 否能继续发展事业"。 韩国正面临严峻的人口结构变化。一方面，由于社会观念和生活方式发生改变，加上就业形势严 峻、房价高企，许多韩国年轻人选择推迟或放弃结婚生子。韩国总和生育率自2016年以来连续8年下 降，2023年降至创新低的0.72，2024年略回升至0.75，但仍远低于为确保全国人口数量稳定所需的2.1。 另一方面，韩国社会老龄化加速。截至去年12月，该国65岁以上老年人数量达到1024万，占总人口 的比例超过20%，进入了"超老龄社会"。此外，由于死亡人口超过出生人口，2024年韩国人口自然减少 12万人，连续5年人口自然减少。 为鼓励民众结婚生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum will be held in Shenzhen from May 17 to 18, focusing on building an open and inclusive economic and financial system, aiming to create a high-level dialogue platform for global government officials, economists, and financial leaders [88]. Group 1: Event Details - The forum will feature over 20 high-level political and economic leaders from both China and abroad, with nearly 100 international heavyweight guests in attendance [3]. - The opening ceremony will take place on May 17 from 9:00 to 11:10 [6]. - Various thematic discussions will be held, including topics such as the challenges of global economic fragmentation and opportunities and challenges in green development [17][26]. Group 2: Thematic Discussions - The first thematic discussion will focus on "Global Economic Fragmentation Challenges," scheduled for May 17 from 15:30 to 16:45 [17]. - Another discussion will address "Opportunities and Challenges in Green Development," occurring on May 17 from 14:00 to 15:15, with a rebroadcast on May 19 [26]. - A session on "Financial Assistance for Cultural and Tourism Industries to Become Pillar Industries" will be held on May 18 from 14:00 to 15:15, with a rebroadcast on May 19 [76].

Core Viewpoint - The aging population in Guangzhou poses significant challenges to the social security system, necessitating improvements in healthcare and pension policies to address the increasing dependency ratio and healthcare costs [1][2][3]. Demographic Trends - Guangzhou's elderly population is rapidly increasing, with 204.77 million people aged 60 and above, accounting for 19.38% of the total population, and 147.15 million aged 65 and above, making up 13.93% [2]. - The elderly dependency ratio is 32.10% for those aged 60 and above and 21.16% for those aged 65 and above, indicating a trend towards a moderately aging society [2]. Challenges in Healthcare Insurance - The current funding model for medical insurance is inadequate to cope with the systemic risks posed by an aging population, as the per capita medical expenditure for retirees is over four times that of active workers [3]. - The reliance on contributions from active workers while retirees incur higher medical costs creates a growing financial strain on the medical insurance fund [3]. Long-term Care Insurance System - Although Guangzhou has made progress in establishing a long-term care insurance system, there are still significant areas for improvement, including uneven distribution of care facilities and limited service coverage [4][5]. - Approximately 30% of designated care institutions only provide basic living assistance without medical care services, highlighting a gap in comprehensive care [4][6]. Recommendations for Improvement - Establish a diversified funding mechanism for medical insurance, including expanding coverage and exploring capital market investments to enhance fund stability [7]. - Optimize the layout of long-term care service institutions based on demographic needs and expand the range of services offered to include preventive care and psychological support [8]. - Encourage the development of supplementary medical insurance through tax incentives for businesses and promote commercial health insurance to meet diverse healthcare needs [10]. - Adjust the payment and contribution methods for retirees to improve the sustainability of the medical insurance fund, potentially implementing a system where retirees contribute based on their income [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Insights - The evolution of life insurance products in the UK, US, and Japan highlights a shift towards health and annuity insurance, driven by demographic changes and economic factors [2][5][33] - The US life insurance market has seen a significant increase in market share, with life insurance premium income rising from $542.9 billion in 2000 to $685.9 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound growth rate of 1.0% [14][20] - In Japan, the life insurance market is transitioning towards health insurance, with a notable increase in the demand for medical and cancer insurance products due to an aging population [36][39] Summary by Sections 1. US Life Insurance Market - The US life insurance market's share of global premiums increased from 18.7% in 2010 to 23.9% in 2022, with a stable share above 20% since 2019 [11] - Life insurance density in the US rose from $1,504 per person in 2010 to $2,017 in 2022, while the depth decreased from 3.1% to 2.6% during the same period [11][13] - Annuity insurance has become the primary source of premium income, accounting for over 50% of the market, while health insurance is experiencing rapid growth [19][21] 2. Japanese Life Insurance Market - Japan's life insurance density and depth have declined from $3,445 per person and 7.5% in 2010 to $1,942 and 5.9% in 2022, respectively [33] - The demand for health insurance products has surged, with medical and cancer insurance policies growing significantly due to an aging population [36][39] - The evolution of life insurance products in Japan is influenced by economic conditions, demographic changes, and regulatory policies [39][48] 3. UK Life Insurance Market - The UK life insurance market has a rich history of product innovation, with a current focus on annuity products due to increasing life expectancy and regulatory changes [2][3] - The market remains stable, with a diverse range of products, primarily driven by economic development, population aging, and tax incentives [2][3][5]

Summary of Service Corporation International (SCI) FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Service Corporation International (SCI) - **Industry**: Funeral services and cemetery operations - **Market Position**: Largest operator in the U.S. and Canada with approximately 17% market share by revenue, while other consolidators account for about 9% [4][6] Core Business Model and Strategy - **Business Segments**: Divided into funeral services and cemetery operations, with a focus on preneed contracts to secure market share and build trust fund portfolios [4][5] - **Earnings Growth Target**: Aiming for 8% to 12% earnings growth, with 5% to 7% from base business and 3% to 5% from capital deployment (acquisitions, growth capital, share repurchases) [6] Recent Performance and Trends - **Funeral Volume Trends**: - Increased by 13% in 2020 and 4% in 2021 due to COVID-19 - Declined by 4% to 5% in 2022, 5% to 6% in 2023, and expected to decline by 2.5% in 2024 [8][9] - Anticipating flat to slightly down volumes in 2025 due to normalization post-COVID [9] - **Cemetery Operations**: - Cemetery sales are closely linked to funeral volumes, with a decline in both areas noted during the pandemic recovery [11][12] Revenue and Pricing Dynamics - **Funeral Revenue per Service**: - Steady growth in low single digits driven by inflationary pricing power, with a shift towards cremation impacting average sales growth [14][16] - Current cremation mix at 60%, with expectations to stabilize around 75% to 80% in the long term [17] - **Preneed Sales**: - Transitioning from trust instruments to insurance contracts, which is expected to stabilize and grow preneed production in the future [22][23] - Anticipated low single-digit declines in funeral preneed production for 2025, with expectations for stabilization and growth in 2026 [27] Cemetery Preneed Sales - **Core vs. Large Sales**: - Core preneed sales account for 85% to 90% of the business, showing low single-digit growth [30] - Large sales (over $80,000) are more volatile and dependent on individual family decisions [31] - **Growth Outlook**: - Expecting low single-digit growth in cemetery preneed sales for 2025, with potential for stronger performance if macroeconomic conditions improve [35] Margin and Cash Flow Expectations - **Margin Dynamics**: - Cemetery margins have improved from around 20% to the lower 30s, with expectations for flat margins in 2025 due to low single-digit growth [48] - Funeral margins expected to remain around 21% for 2025 until demographic changes drive volume increases [49] - **Free Cash Flow**: - Projecting $860 million in operating cash flow for 2025, with expected free cash flow of around $550 million after capital expenditures [51] Land Management and Future Growth - **Cemetery Land Availability**: - Over 100 years of available inventory across 36,000 acres, but some cemeteries nearing capacity [57] - Strategies include raising prices, reconfiguring land, and acquiring adjacent properties to manage land constraints [59][61] Regulatory Environment - **Funeral Rule Compliance**: - SCI is prepared to comply with the FTC's funeral rule, with pricing already online at 75% of locations [56] Conclusion - SCI is navigating a post-COVID environment with a focus on stabilizing and growing its preneed sales, managing margins, and leveraging its land assets for future growth. The company remains optimistic about its long-term strategies despite current market challenges.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends and statistics related to the migrant worker population in China, highlighting the growth in numbers, changes in demographics, and regional employment dynamics over the past decade [1][2][3]. Group 1: Migrant Worker Population Growth - The total number of migrant workers in China reached 29,973 million in 2024, an increase of 2.2 million from the previous year, representing a growth rate of 0.7% [1]. - From 2015 to 2024, the total number of migrant workers increased by 22.26 million, with a growth rate of 8% [1]. - The central and western regions saw significant increases in migrant workers, with the central region growing by 1,439 million (25.7%) and the western region by 1,394 million (26.8%) [1]. Group 2: Regional Employment Dynamics - The proportion of migrant workers in the eastern region decreased from 57.7% in 2015 to 51.3% in 2024, while the central region's share increased from 20.2% to 23.5% [2]. - In 2024, the eastern region saw an increase of 860,000 migrant workers, while the central and western regions also experienced growth [2]. - The central region's share of the total increase in migrant workers rose significantly from 49.8% in 2021 to 110% in 2023 [2]. Group 3: Employment and Income Trends - The average monthly income of migrant workers in 2024 was 4,961 yuan, an increase of 181 yuan (3.8%) from the previous year [3]. - The average income for outgoing migrant workers was 5,634 yuan, while local migrant workers earned an average of 4,291 yuan [3]. - The unemployment rate for external agricultural household labor was 4.6% in 2024, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [3]. Group 4: Demographic Changes - The average age of migrant workers increased from 38.3 years in 2014 to 43.2 years in 2024, reflecting an aging workforce [4]. - The proportion of migrant workers under 40 years old decreased from 70% in 2008 to 43.7% in 2024, while those over 50 years old increased from 17.9% to 31.6% [4]. Group 5: Policy Initiatives - The government plans to implement a new round of urbanization for agricultural transfer populations, focusing on easing household registration issues in large cities [5]. - Policies aim to enhance employment opportunities in industries with strong capacity to absorb migrant workers, particularly in services like elderly care and childcare [5]. - New measures will address housing security and public service facilities for nearly 300 million migrant workers [5].

撰文丨王聪 编辑丨王多鱼 排版丨水成文 神经系统疾病 一直是全球健康损失的主要原因，然而在中国，神经系统疾病造成的负担仍鲜为人知。 2025 年 5 月 1 日，首都医科大学宣武医院 郝峻巍 教授团队与中国疾控中心 周脉耕 研究员团队合作，在 Cell 子刊 Med 上发表了题为： Burden of neurological disorders in China and its provinces, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021 的研究论文。 该研究全面考察了中国及其各省神经系统疾病负担的分布情况和变化趋势。结果显示，神经障碍广泛影响着中国各年龄段的人群，对老年人的影响尤为严重，人 口老龄化是导致神经系统疾病患病率大幅上升和健康损失加剧的主要因素。各省在神经系统疾病负担方面的差异与社会经济发展水平相关。 研究团队评估了 1990-2021 年间 16 种神经系统疾病按年龄、性别和省份划分的疾病负担估计值，包括患病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年 （DALY） 、生命损失年 （YLL） 和伤残生存年 （YLD） ，并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the competition among provinces in China is closely tied to population dynamics, with GDP growth rates reflecting the resilience of certain provinces in the face of national trends [3][5]. Economic Growth and Population Dynamics - In the first quarter, 15 out of 31 provinces reported GDP growth rates that met or exceeded the national average of 5.4%, indicating strong economic resilience [3]. - Population structure is a critical factor influencing long-term economic competitiveness, alongside industrial upgrades and investment [5]. Population Growth Trends - In a context of declining national population, five provinces (Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, and Shaanxi) have achieved positive population growth, with birth rates exceeding 6‰ [6]. - Guangdong has the highest birth rate at 8.89‰, maintaining its status as the leading province for births for seven consecutive years [6][8]. Labor Force and Economic Activity - The provinces with the highest labor force participation rates include Guangdong, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia, with Guangdong's labor population at 66.38%, surpassing the national average [20]. - The influx of young migrants into Guangdong contributes to its robust labor market, with significant employment opportunities in high-end manufacturing and modern services [20][10]. Aging Population Challenges - By 2024, 22% of China's population is aged 60 and above, with provinces like Liaoning facing severe aging issues, where 31.17% of the population is elderly [26][27]. - The aging population is exacerbated by low birth rates and out-migration of younger individuals seeking better opportunities in more developed regions [28][31]. Regional Variations in Birth Rates - Provinces with higher birth rates tend to have a larger proportion of children aged 0-15, indicating potential for future labor market vitality [15][17]. - The article notes a positive correlation between birth rates and the proportion of young populations across provinces [16]. Policy Responses to Demographic Challenges - Jiangsu province has recognized the need to attract and retain population, implementing measures to ease residency restrictions and promote childbirth [23][24]. - Various provinces are adopting policies to encourage higher birth rates, including financial incentives and improved maternity benefits [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates solid cash cow attributes, with short-term profit pressures not undermining its long-term value. Despite a decline in net profit for 2024, the operating cash flow remains robust, reflecting the company's strong core business [2][4]. - The company is expanding its store network significantly, with a total of 16,553 stores as of the 2024 report, including 10,503 direct-operated and 6,050 franchised stores. This expansion is supported by a successful direct franchise model that enhances operational efficiency [3]. - The new retail model is maturing, with a high penetration of O2O delivery services and a growing B2C business, benefiting from policies promoting prescription drug separation [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.497 billion yuan, an increase of 8.01% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 21.58% to 915 million yuan. The first quarter of 2025 showed revenue of 6.956 billion yuan, up 3.02%, and net profit increased by 15.45% to 460 million yuan [1][2]. Store Network Expansion - The total number of stores reached 16,553 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 2,479 stores during the year. The company has entered new markets, including Shanghai and Inner Mongolia, and plans to enhance regional coverage starting in the second half of 2024 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down to 1.048 billion yuan and 1.235 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 38% and 40% from previous estimates. The 2027 net profit is projected to be 1.437 billion yuan, representing a growth of 14.59% [4][5]. The current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20 for 2025, 17 for 2026, and 15 for 2027 [4].