"全面彻底"封锁委内瑞拉被制裁油轮 特朗普周二在社交媒体平台Truth Social发帖表示："委内瑞拉政府已被指定为外国恐怖组织。因此，今天，我下令 全面彻底封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮。"他补充道，"封锁范围只会越来越大，对他们的冲击将是前所未有 的。" 2025.12. 17 本文字数：1832，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 封图 | 图源：新华社 美国总统特朗普本周再度一连打出两张"地缘政治牌"，于美东时间周二（16日）宣布，将对委内瑞拉受制裁油轮进 行"全面彻底"封锁，稍早还表示俄乌谈判取得进展。一拉一扯下，市场人士认为，原油市场供应过剩情况在明年仍 将加剧。 周二稍早，国际油价一度跌至约五年最低水平。该消息公布后，布伦特原油期货在今日亚太交易时段上涨0.9%， 至59.46美元/桶，WTI原油期货也上涨1%，至55.82美元/桶。 Lipow Oil Associates总裁力普（Andy Lipow）表示，对委内瑞拉石油的全面禁运将影响每天80万~90万桶石油 供应量，可能会使油价每桶上涨约2~3美元。但他同时表示，即使如此，全球石油"供应仍将充足"，因为全球石油 过剩仍达 ...

Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a short-term increase influenced by the U.S. non-farm payroll data, reinforcing the existing upward trend, with potential for new highs in the medium term [1] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly earnings in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2021, indicating a potential slowdown in corporate profit growth which may affect consumer spending [1] - The technical analysis shows a bullish outlook for gold, with a daily upward structure and support at the $4,296 level [1] Oil Market - International oil prices fell below $55 per barrel, reflecting a weak fundamental outlook, with no signs of improvement in the oversupply situation [2] - Demand remains weak, with global oil supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to approximately 1.4 billion barrels of oil in "floating storage," indicating potential supply release [2] - The oil market is facing a structural surplus, with inventory levels at a near four-year high, and the EIA's upcoming report is expected to confirm significant supply surplus [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for oil prices, with a possibility of short-term recovery but primarily recommending short positions [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar has maintained a weak trend in recent months, with a long-term downward trajectory expected due to declining U.S. interest rates [3] - A recent survey indicates that most economists expect the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates at 2% until at least December 18, with a likelihood of future rate hikes, suggesting potential for euro appreciation [3] Japanese Yen and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates to the highest level in 30 years on December 19, increasing short-term rates from 0.5% to 0.75% due to persistent inflation above 2% [4] - Technical analysis shows signs of a potential rebound in the U.S. dollar index, with support at the 98.30 level [4] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has shown mixed performance with small fluctuations, indicating a potential start of a medium-term downward wave [5] - Short-term price action suggests a possible rebound, with resistance at the 50,170 level [5] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a bearish trend but have not significantly declined, with a potential for new highs as the market forms a consolidation pattern [6] - Support is noted at the $5.25 level [6] Market Overview - Trump is interviewing candidates for the Federal Reserve chair position, including current Fed Governor Waller and former Governor Walsh [7] - Trump has imposed a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and exiting Venezuela, demanding the return of oil assets to the U.S. [8] - The U.S. added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [9] - Upcoming data includes the EIA's weekly oil inventory report on December 12 [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a "comprehensive and thorough" blockade on sanctioned oil tankers from Venezuela, designating the Venezuelan government as a foreign terrorist organization [3][4] - The blockade is expected to impact the supply of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels of oil per day, potentially increasing oil prices by $2 to $3 per barrel, although global oil supply remains ample with a surplus of about 2 million barrels per day [3][4] - The international oil prices saw fluctuations, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.9% to $59.46 per barrel and WTI crude futures increasing by 1% to $55.82 per barrel following the announcement [3] Group 2 - Trump claimed progress in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, stating that they are "closer than ever" to a peace agreement, which raised concerns about additional oil supply entering the market amidst an already oversupplied situation [5][6] - The market reacted negatively to the news, with Brent crude prices dropping nearly 3% to $58.92 per barrel, marking the lowest level since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2021 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that any peace agreement could significantly impact the oil market, potentially allowing around 170 million barrels of Russian oil to return to the market, although the likelihood of a swift agreement is considered low [6][7] Group 3 - The oil market is currently dominated by oversupply concerns, with Brent crude experiencing its longest consecutive monthly decline in 11 years, dropping nearly $20 per barrel [7] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a global oil production increase of 3 million barrels per day by 2025, despite OPEC's control over production plans [7] - The IEA anticipates that by 2026, the average oversupply in international oil markets could reach 3.7 million barrels per day, exceeding levels seen during the pandemic [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report indicates that the crude oil market is dominated by oversupply, causing oil prices to break through support levels and decline. The supply - side factors, such as the potential increase in Russian production due to the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the expansion of discounts on Venezuelan crude oil, and Western sanctions, are increasing the pressure on exports. The demand side is weak overall, and the inventory changes show an increase in warehouse receipts and signals of global oversupply, intensifying the downward pressure. Therefore, oil prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating state and continue to be under pressure in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On December 16, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped slightly from 436.5 yuan/barrel to 430.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.35%. The prices of the WTI and Brent main contracts remained stable at $56.68/barrel and $60.36/barrel respectively, but showed a high - level decline trend. The SC - Brent spread weakened from $1.55/barrel to $0.78/barrel, a decline of 49.68%, and the SC - WTI spread weakened from $5.23/barrel to $4.46/barrel, a decline of 14.72%, indicating the relative weakness of SC. The Brent - WTI spread remained stable at $3.68/barrel, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread strengthened from - 2.4 yuan/barrel to - 2.2 yuan/barrel, an increase of 8.33%, indicating the relative strength of near - month contracts [1]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The warehouse receipts of crude oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange remained unchanged at 3,464,000 barrels. The warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 20,000 tons to 20,040 tons, and the warehouse receipts of fuel oil remained unchanged at 69,550 tons. The closing price of the SC crude oil main contract first dropped 2.24% to 423 yuan/barrel and then closed down 1.58% to 430 yuan/barrel, with price fluctuations reflecting high trading activity [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Global supply oversupply is intensifying. There are obvious signs of oversupply of Dubai crude oil in the Middle East. The smooth progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks may prompt Russia to increase production, exacerbating the oversupply pressure in the oil market. The discount of Venezuela's Merey crude oil has expanded to $21 per barrel lower than Brent (last week it was $14 - 15). The price of Russian crude oil has dropped to the lowest level since the conflict, and Western sanctions have hindered exports. Venezuela has terminated its natural gas contract with Trinidad and Tobago, and geopolitical tensions have increased supply uncertainty. Factors such as OPEC +'s idle capacity and US sanctions continue to put pressure on supply [2]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side is under pressure. The EU's abandonment of the internal combustion engine ban provides flexibility for automobile manufacturers, which may mitigate the impact of energy transformation on crude oil demand. India's preliminary December service PMI was 60.1, slightly higher than the previous value of 59.8, but overall demand is weak. The demand for refined oil is limited by refinery equipment and the consumption of gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil. The progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks has reduced the geopolitical risk premium, and the market is dominated by concerns about oversupply [3]. - **Inventory Side**: According to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), last week, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 9.322 million barrels (the previous week it decreased by 4.779 million barrels). The API Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 510,000 barrels (the previous value was an increase of 4,700 barrels). The API refined oil gasoline inventory increased by 4.835 million barrels (the previous value was an increase of 6.955 million barrels), and the distillate inventory increased by 2.511 million barrels (the previous value was an increase of 1.027 million barrels) [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On December 16, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price dropped from 436.5 yuan/barrel to 430.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.35%. The WTI futures price dropped from $56.68/barrel to $55.07/barrel, a decline of 2.84%. The Brent futures price dropped from $60.36/barrel to $58.82/barrel, a decline of 2.55%. - **Spot Prices**: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $60.80/barrel. The Brent spot price dropped from $61.44/barrel to $60.65/barrel, a decline of 1.29%. The Oman spot price dropped from $61.62/barrel to $60.35/barrel, a decline of 2.06%. The Shengli spot price dropped from $57.41/barrel to $56.28/barrel, a decline of 1.97%. The Dubai spot price dropped from $61.62/barrel to $60.44/barrel, a decline of 1.91%. The ESPO spot price dropped from $49.09/barrel to $47.99/barrel, a decline of 2.24%. The Duri spot price dropped from $60.36/barrel to $59.53/barrel, a decline of 1.38%. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread increased from $1.55/barrel to $2.32/barrel, an increase of 49.68%. The SC - WTI spread increased from $5.23/barrel to $6.07/barrel, an increase of 16.06%. The Brent - WTI spread increased from $3.68/barrel to $3.75/barrel, an increase of 1.90%. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread increased from - 2.4 yuan/barrel to - 2.2 yuan/barrel, an increase of 8.33%. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index dropped from 98.28 to 98.22, a decline of 0.06%. The S&P 500 dropped from 6,816.51 points to 6,800.26 points, a decline of 0.24%. The DAX index dropped from 24,229.91 points to 24,076.87 points, a decline of 0.63%. The RMB exchange rate dropped from 7.05 to 7.04, a decline of 0.11%. - **Inventory and Production**: The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased from 427.503 million barrels to 425.691 million barrels, a decline of 0.42%. The Cushing inventory increased from 21.296 million barrels to 21.604 million barrels, an increase of 1.45%. The US strategic reserve inventory increased from 411.674 million barrels to 411.922 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The API inventory decreased from 456.808 million barrels to 452.029 million barrels, a decline of 1.05%. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased from 94.10% to 94.50%, an increase of 0.43%. The US refinery crude oil processing volume decreased from 16.876 million barrels/day to 16.860 million barrels/day, a decline of 0.09% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The FU futures price dropped from 2,441 yuan/ton to 2,396 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.84%. The LU futures price dropped from 3,007 yuan/ton to 2,921 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.86%. The NYMEX fuel oil price dropped from 217.94 cents/gallon to 212.52 cents/gallon, a decline of 2.49%. - **Spot Prices**: The IF0380 Singapore and Rotterdam prices remained unchanged at $422/ton and $423/ton respectively. The MDO Singapore and Rotterdam prices remained unchanged at $483/ton and $457/ton respectively. The MGO Singapore price remained unchanged at $686/ton. The 180CST Singapore FOB price dropped from $342.93/ton to $339.50/ton, a decline of 1.00%. The 380CST Singapore FOB price dropped from $336.63/ton to $332.90/ton, a decline of 1.11%. The low - sulfur 0.5% Singapore FOB price remained unchanged at $415.04/ton. The high - sulfur 180 in East China remained unchanged at 4,950 yuan/ton. - **Paper Prices**: The high - sulfur 180 Singapore (near - month) price dropped from $342.93/ton to $339.50/ton, a decline of 1.00%. The high - sulfur 380 Singapore (near - month) price dropped from $336.63/ton to $332.90/ton, a decline of 1.11%. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not provided. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread dropped from 566 yuan/ton to 525 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.24%. The LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread dropped from - 1,879 yuan/ton to - 1,965 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.58%. The FU - Singapore 380CST spread dropped from - 1,767 yuan/ton to - 1,812 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.55%. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased from 25.559 million tons to 26.062 million tons, an increase of 1.97% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply On December 16, Dubai crude oil, a Middle East crude oil benchmark, showed signs of intensifying supply oversupply. The smooth progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks may lead to an increase in Russian production, further exacerbating the oversupply in the oil market [9][10]. 3.3.2 Demand The EU has abandoned the effective ban on internal combustion engines, providing greater flexibility for automobile manufacturers in the transition to clean transportation [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory On December 16, the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69,550 tons, the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 20,000 tons to 20,040 tons, and the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,464,000 barrels [12]. 3.3.4 Market Information As of 2:30 on December 16, the Shanghai gold main contract dropped 0.14% to 974 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract dropped 0.24% to 14,731 yuan/kg, and the SC crude oil main contract dropped 2.24% to 423 yuan/barrel. As of 2:30 on December 16, the Shanghai gold main contract dropped 0.18% to 976 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 0.71% to 14,815 yuan/kg, and the SC crude oil main contract dropped 1.58% to 430 yuan/barrel. The discount of Venezuela's Merey crude oil has expanded to $21 per barrel lower than Brent. The price of Russian crude oil has dropped to the lowest level since the start of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks has led to a decline in oil prices. India's preliminary December service PMI was 60.1. Venezuela has terminated its natural gas supply contract with Trinidad and Tobago. The US Treasury has rejected the proposal of US bank XTELLUS to acquire the overseas assets of Russia's Lukoil [12][13]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig counts, OPEC crude oil production, global regional oil rig counts, US refinery weekly operating rates, US refinery crude oil processing volume, US weekly crude oil net imports, Japanese refinery actual capacity utilization, Shandong local refinery (atmospheric and vacuum distillation) operating rates, China's monthly refined oil production, US commercial crude oil inventory, US Cushing crude oil inventory, US strategic crude oil inventory, fuel oil futures price trends, Singapore high - low sulfur spreads, Chinese high - low sulfur spreads, cross - regional high - low sulfur spreads, international port IFO380 spot prices, and fuel oil inventories [14][20][40]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. sanctions and military pressure on Venezuela have led to a limited rebound in international crude oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising around 1% after hitting a four-year low due to concerns over global oil supply surplus [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Market Reaction - President Trump has ordered a complete blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and exiting Venezuela, escalating military tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [3]. - Following the sanctions, Brent crude prices have rebounded slightly, while WTI crude prices have also seen a minor increase after a significant drop [1][4]. Group 2: Venezuela's Oil Production and Export Risks - Venezuela's oil production has been recovering since hitting a historical low in 2020, with recent exports nearing 590,000 barrels per day, but still below historical levels [3]. - Approximately 30% of Venezuela's oil transport faces risks due to U.S. sanctions, which could lead to long-term export disruptions for Asian buyers [3]. Group 3: Supply Surplus Expectations - The oil market is currently under pressure from expectations of a significant supply surplus, driven by OPEC+ restoring idle capacity and increased production from other countries, including the U.S. and Canada [4][6]. - Wall Street analysts predict a substantial oversupply of around 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026, with average prices for Brent and WTI expected to be significantly lower than current levels [6]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude will average around $56 per barrel in 2026, while JPMorgan analysts suggest prices could drop to around $30 unless OPEC+ implements major production cuts [6]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a record oversupply of nearly 4 million barrels per day, although adjustments by oil-producing countries may mitigate this surplus [6].

"因窃取美国资产，以及包括恐怖主义、毒品走私和人口贩运在内的诸多其他原因，委内瑞拉马杜罗政 权已被认定为外国恐怖组织，"特朗普在其社交平台Truth Social上写道，"因此，我现在命令对进出委内 瑞拉的所有受制裁油轮实施全面彻底封锁。" 智通财经获悉，在美国总统特朗普通过下令封锁南美洲国家近海地区的受制裁油轮，并且加大对委内瑞 拉军事与经济施压之后，国际原油定价基准——布伦特原油期货价格从2021年以来的最低价格水平迅速 反弹，但是反弹幅度相对有限，仅仅徘徊在1%涨幅附近。 由于交易员们对全球原油供给过剩不断膨胀的担忧情绪席卷大宗商品交易市场，布伦特原油价格近日已 经跌入四年来的最低区域。随着布油期货反弹，西德克萨斯中质原油(即WTI原油期货)价格也有所反 弹，在此前四个交易日累计下跌近6%之后迅速反弹约1.5%，上涨至接近每桶56美元。特朗普在当地时 间周二的一则社交媒体帖文中表示，他正在下令对于那些频繁进出委内瑞拉的原油运输船实施全面封 锁。 此举是两国近期军事敌对行动的重大升级，并发生在上周美国军队在委内瑞拉近海扣押一艘油轮之后。 特朗普还表示，他已经将委内瑞拉最高领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统的政权指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. sanctions and military pressure on Venezuela have led to a limited rebound in international crude oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising around 1% after hitting a four-year low due to concerns over global oil supply surplus [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Market Reaction - President Trump has ordered a complete blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and exiting Venezuela, escalating military tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [3]. - Following the blockade announcement, Brent crude prices have shown a slight rebound, while WTI crude prices have also increased by approximately 1.5% after a previous decline of nearly 6% over four days [1][4]. Group 2: Venezuela's Oil Production and Export Risks - Venezuela's oil production has been recovering since hitting historical lows in 2020, with recent exports nearing 590,000 barrels per day, although this remains significantly below historical levels [3]. - Approximately 30% of Venezuela's oil transport is at risk if U.S. sanctions and blockades continue, potentially forcing Asian refineries to seek more expensive alternatives from the Middle East and North America [3]. Group 3: Supply Surplus Expectations - The oil market is currently facing expectations of a significant supply surplus, driven by OPEC+ countries restoring idle capacity and increased production from other countries, including the U.S. and Canada [4][6]. - Wall Street analysts predict a global oil surplus of about 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026, with average prices for Brent and WTI crude expected to be around $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively [6]. Group 4: Future Market Dynamics - The potential for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia could lead to a significant easing of restrictions on Russian oil exports, further exacerbating supply surplus expectations and potentially driving prices down [7]. - As of the latest trading data, WTI crude futures have risen to $55.80 per barrel, while Brent crude futures are at $59.42 per barrel [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-17原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2602： 1.基本面：美国劳工部周二公布报告显示，11月非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，失业率升至4.6%，为四年 多来最高水平；特朗普在社媒发文表示，他下令"全面彻底封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮"， 包围委内瑞拉的舰队只会越来越大，给他们带来的冲击将是前所未有的——直到他们将之前从我们这 里窃取的所有石油、土地和其他资产归还给美国为止；中性 2.基差：12月16日，阿曼原油现货价为60.35美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为59.49美元/桶，基差 23.70元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至12月5日 ...

（原标题：?"封锁令"点燃油市! 特朗普下令围堵委内瑞拉油轮 原油价格从四年来最低位反弹） 智通财经APP获悉，在美国总统特朗普通过下令封锁南美洲国家近海地区的受制裁油轮，并且加大对委 内瑞拉军事与经济施压之后，国际原油定价基准——布伦特原油期货价格从2021年以来的最低价格水平 迅速反弹，但是反弹幅度相对有限，仅仅徘徊在1%涨幅附近。 由于交易员们对全球原油供给过剩不断膨胀的担忧情绪席卷大宗商品交易市场，布伦特原油价格近日已 经跌入四年来的最低区域。随着布油期货反弹，西德克萨斯中质原油(即WTI原油期货)价格也有所反 弹，在此前四个交易日累计下跌近6%之后迅速反弹约1.5%，上涨至接近每桶56美元。特朗普在当地时 间周二的一则社交媒体帖文中表示，他正在下令对于那些频繁进出委内瑞拉的原油运输船实施全面封 锁。 此举是两国近期军事敌对行动的重大升级，并发生在上周美国军队在委内瑞拉近海扣押一艘油轮之后。 特朗普还表示，他已经将委内瑞拉最高领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统的政权指定为外国恐怖组织。 "因窃取美国资产，以及包括恐怖主义、毒品走私和人口贩运在内的诸多其他原因，委内瑞拉马杜罗政 权已被认定为外国恐怖组织，"特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to increasing supply surplus, overshadowing geopolitical factors and leading to a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude falling below $60 for the first time in seven months [3][4][21]. Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil futures closed at $58.92, down 2.71%, while WTI crude oil futures closed at $55.27, down 2.73% [6][18]. - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 9.322 million barrels for the week ending December 12, exceeding market expectations of a 2.197 million barrel drop, but this did not significantly impact market sentiment [3][4][16]. - The Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its monthly report, indicating an average daily supply surplus of over 4 million barrels per day for the past two months, confirming the accumulation of crude oil inventories [4][16]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, have not significantly influenced the market, as evidenced by the muted market reaction to the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker [5][19]. - The impact of geopolitical events is diminishing, with the market focusing more on supply-demand dynamics rather than geopolitical disruptions [5][17]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The market is expected to face concentrated supply surplus pressures in the fourth quarter, with OPEC+ and other regions increasing production, contributing to a bearish outlook for oil prices [4][21]. - Analysts predict that oil prices may continue to decline throughout the year due to the anticipated supply surplus and weak demand, with a 20% drop in benchmark oil prices observed this year [21][21].