（原标题：全球供应过剩警报拉响！沙特旗舰原油价格降至五年低点） 智通财经APP注意到，由于全球石油市场持续出现供应过剩的迹象，沙特阿拉伯将其旗舰原油价格下调 至五年来的最低水平。 根据一份最新的价目表，沙特国有生产商沙特阿美其面向亚洲客户的阿拉伯轻质原油价格下调至较区域 基准升水 60 美分，用于明年 1 月的交货。这是自 2021 年 1 月以来的最低价格，降幅与对炼油厂和贸易 商的调查结果大致一致。 欧佩克+在上周末确认了此前的决定，即在明年第一季度暂停增产，理由是亚洲、欧洲和北美大部分地 区的冬季月份季节性需求疲软。 今年以来，原油价格已下跌约 16%，原因是来自美洲的供应激增，加上欧佩克+集团自身的增产，超过 了低迷的需求增长。国际能源署 (IEA) 预测 2026 年将出现创纪录的供应过剩，而包括高盛集团 在内的 华尔街银行认为期货价格将走低。 沙特阿美下调了面向亚洲买家的所有原油价格，其中阿拉伯中质原油自 2020 年底以来首次转为贴水。 在价格公布后，全球基准布伦特原油期货抹去了早些时候的涨幅，交易变动不大。 ...

由于全球石油市场持续出现供应过剩的迹象，沙特阿拉伯将其旗舰原油价格下调至五年来的最低水平。 12月4日，据媒体报道，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（沙特阿美）将把2025年1月面向亚洲客户的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价，官方售价设定为较阿曼/ 迪拜原油均价升水0.60美元/桶。 此次调价后，该旗舰原油等级的溢价水平将降至2021年1月以来的五年最低，且下调幅度与市场此前对炼油商和贸易商的调查预期基本一致。 全球基准布伦特原油收复早前失地，价格与前一日持平。 风险提示及免责条款 供应过剩，油价承压 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 国际能源署（IEA）已预测2026年将出现创纪录的供应过剩。包括高盛集团在内的多家华尔街投行也预计原油期货价格将进一步走低。沙特阿美 的降价行动，正是生产国面对这一黯淡前景所做出的直接反应。 作为全球最重要的产油国联盟，OPEC+的行动是市场关注的另一核心。就在此次调价前夕，OPEC+在刚刚过去的周末确认了其先前的一项决定， 即暂停明年第一季度的增产。 ...

聚酯产业链展望：成本弱供需强，产业链价格保持强势 20251204 摘要 聚酯产业链需求保持良好，但 PTA 因装置检修供应下降，乙二醇港口库 存持续上升，价格走势疲软，跌幅超过原油，与 PS 和 PT 价格在原油下 跌时上涨形成对比。 OPEC 暂停部分原油生产，缓解供应过剩预期，但 EIA 预测全球原油仍 将过剩。美国原油产量创新高，汽油库存回升，价格创近年新低。预计 12 月至明年 1 月原油需求将好转，但供应过剩和地缘政治风险限制价格 反弹空间。 PS 产量同比下降，消费量增加，供不应求，加工费升至年内高位，价格 持续上涨，受益于聚酯产业链需求。若原油价格反弹，PS 价格可能走强， 但需求回落则可能导致价格下跌。 2025 年 PTA 新增产能较大，但 2026 年无新增产能，供应压力较小。 PTA 库存持续回落，加工费虽低但有所回升，需关注装置重启情况和开 工率变动。 Q&A 今年以来原油及其相关产业链的价格表现如何？ 2025 年全年，原油价格整体表现偏弱，累计跌幅接近 20%。然而，在整个产 业链中，PS 和 PT 的价格表现明显偏强。尽管有涨有跌，但整体跌幅并不大。 相比之下，乙二醇（EG）的 ...

每日核心期货品种分析 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 04 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 04 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。集运欧线涨超 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。不过美国活跃石油钻井平台大 幅减少12座，提升了低油价对于美国原油增长受限的预期。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯 基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与 美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的 实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达 成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大楼将很快对 委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消 费旺季结束、美国11月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第九个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+持 续增产，中东地区出口增 ...

11月以来，市场担忧俄罗斯原油供应回归加剧全球过剩压力，原油价格震荡回落。从需求来看，今年冬 季全球主要经济体原油需求普遍偏弱，这导致原油库存出现累积。 石油输出国组织及其盟友（OPEC+）决定明年一季度暂停增产，在一定程度上缓和了市场对原油供应 过剩加剧的担忧，但受俄罗斯原油供应可能回归、美国等非OPEC+产油国原油产量增长等因素影响， 原油供应过剩格局很难逆转。原油价格要想止跌，还需要等待需求改善或产油国减产。 俄罗斯原油供应可能回归 8个OPEC+核心成员国今年4月决定恢复产量之后，沙特已成功夺回部分市场份额，但随之而来的油价 下滑给该国财政带来挑战，使其预算赤字扩大，并迫使其缩减一些旗舰经济项目规模。 从实际产量来看，OPEC原油产量环比继续增长，但增长势头有所放缓。根据OPEC月报，2025年10 月，OPEC原油产量升至2846万桶／日，环比增长0.12%，低于9月1.8%的增速；同比增长7.2%，低于9 月8.9%的增速。 不过，美国等非OPEC+产油国原油产量将继续增长，使得全球原油供应增长继续超过需求增长，过剩 压力很难逆转。根据美国能源信息署（EIA）发布的月报，9月，美国原油产量攀升至逾 ...

Group 1 - Russian President's assistant Ushakov commented on the recent discussions between Russia and the U.S. regarding Ukraine's NATO membership and the impact of Russian military successes on Western evaluations of conflict resolution [2] - U.S. President Trump described the meeting between U.S. envoys and President Putin as "quite good," although he could not disclose the outcomes of the talks [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukraine is preparing for a new round of talks with U.S. representatives, emphasizing ongoing coordination with partners [5][6] Group 2 - The Turkish Foreign Minister discussed Black Sea security and the end of the Ukraine crisis with NATO Secretary-General during a meeting, following recent attacks on Russian vessels in the Black Sea [8] - Venezuela's oil exports increased to approximately 921,000 barrels per day in November, despite U.S. pressure, marking the third-highest monthly average this year [10] - The geopolitical factors have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with recent data indicating a potential oversupply in the market [12][13]

客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好！先来看重要资讯。 俄总统助理：普京与美代表讨论了乌克兰加入北约问题 据央视报道，俄总统助理乌沙科夫3日评论了俄美2日就美方提出的"和平计划"直接对话的情况。他称， 俄军近期在前线的胜利影响了西方对解决乌克兰冲突途径的评估。他还透露，总统普京与美方代表讨论 了乌克兰加入北约的问题，但双方约定不透露细节。此外，特别军事行动结束后，涉及乌克兰的潜在协 议的国际承认问题，也是俄美谈判内容之一，但他不会具体说明。 乌沙科夫表示，俄方希望，俄军的成功将让欧洲和乌克兰展现出"对当前事态更恰当的态度和认知"。 乌沙科夫还指出，乌方已拒绝继续伊斯坦布尔进程，目前只有俄美在进行关于乌克兰问题的谈判。他还 称，欧盟拒绝与俄罗斯进行接触，因此俄罗斯未同欧洲进行谈判，但俄方愿意与之谈判，对讨论所有问 题持开放立场。 特朗普：美特使与俄总统的会面"相当不错" 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 泽连斯基指出，未来数日将公布相关会晤安排，形式可能包括面对面会谈或电话沟通。他强调，当前乌 克兰与各合作伙伴之间保持"持续且高效"的协调。 同日，乌克兰外交部长瑟比加在布鲁塞尔表示，在当天举行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing producers will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. After the end of the peak oil demand season, EIA data shows that US refined oil inventories increased more than expected, and US crude oil inventories also increased more than expected due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventories increased slightly. US crude oil production is near a record high, but the number of active US oil drilling rigs decreased by 12, raising expectations that low oil prices will limit US crude oil growth. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to achieve in the near term, the US - Venezuela military stand - off has escalated, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium was attacked. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations rising, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The end of the peak oil demand season, a decline in the US November ISM manufacturing index, and continuous production increases by OPEC+ and increased exports from the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in global floating crude oil storage. The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. However, due to the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and the rising expectations of a Fed interest - rate cut, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, fell 1.15% to 448.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 444.6 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 452.8 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 249 to 31,517 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and has raised its forecast for US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. OPEC has adjusted the Q3 2026 global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. IEA has raised its forecasts for global crude oil supply and demand growth rates in 2025 and 2026 [5] 3.4 Inventory and Supply Data - As of the week of November 21, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected: 55,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected: 745,000 barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected: 556,000 barrels). Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 68,000 barrels. OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of November 21 decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day [6] 3.5 Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. The single - week supply of US crude oil products increased by 0.41% month - on - month [7][8]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that crude oil prices will oscillate at a low level. Although the market is currently in a state of supply surplus, the recent difficulty in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by Ukrainian drones, and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut are likely to support the price [1]. Summary by Section Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in Q1 2026 [1]. - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that US refined oil inventories increased more than expected, and due to increased net imports, US crude oil inventories also increased more than expected, leading to a slight increase in overall oil inventories [1][4]. - US crude oil production is near its historical high, but the number of active US oil drilling rigs decreased by 12, raising expectations of limited US crude oil growth at low prices [1]. - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to achieve in the near term. There is a concern about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya due to geopolitical tensions [1]. - The market is worried about crude oil demand as the consumer peak season ends, the US ISM manufacturing index in November decreased month - on - month and has been in contraction for nine consecutive months. OPEC+ continues to increase production, Middle - East exports are rising, and global floating crude oil storage is increasing, resulting in a supply - surplus situation [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract, 2601, rose 0.09% to 453.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 450.1 yuan/ton and a high of 456.0 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1458 to 31,766 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报: It expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC月报: It adjusted the third - quarter global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA: Its annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050. The IEA月报 raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day, the 2026 supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day, the 2025 demand growth rate by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and the 2026 demand growth rate by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day [3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 21, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected: 55,000 barrels), 4.50% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected: 745,000 barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected: 556,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 68,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was revised down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day. Its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September, reaching 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week of November 21 decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day [4]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year [4]. - Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year [6]. - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. The overall US crude oil product single - week supply increased by 0.41% month - on - month due to the rebound in gasoline and other oil products [6].