交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1750 | -70 | 09合约 | 1714 | -28 | 仓 单 | 3233 | 333 | | 山东现货 | 1750 | -70 | 基 差 | 3 6 | -42 | UR综合库存 | 143 1 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1760 | 0 | UR01 | 1736 | -34 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-30 上游开工维持，基本面弱势 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-29，尿素主力收盘1744元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1770 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：16 元/吨（-26）；河南基差：26元/吨（-26）；江苏基差：46元/吨（-16）；尿素生产利润230元/吨（-20），出口利润1046 元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-07-29，企业产能利用率83.59%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为85.88 万吨（-3.67），港口样本 库存量为54.30 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-29，复合肥产能利用率33.58%（+1.03%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.20%（+0.96%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.94日（-0.12）。 前期市场主要受行业反内卷以及淘汰落后产能等宏观政策影响，预期端偏强，目前市场情绪明显回落。尿素上游 开工短期维持，产量高位运行，新增装置逐步投产，产量延续高位。农业需求逐渐进入尾声 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国内宏观政策带来原料端利好影响。国内供应方面，日产及 开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开 工亦回落，农业需求再次转淡。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品 现货1820（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差76，升贴水比例4.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存143.1万吨（+0.9），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线下，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：近期尿素主力合约盘面震荡， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - After the previous trading day, UR fluctuated upwards and closed at 1803. On Friday night, coking coal prices dropped and hit the daily limit. The bullish sentiment brought by anti - involution may be adjusted, and urea prices may experience a compensatory decline today. Fundamentally, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Enterprise inventories continue to decline slightly, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. In terms of demand, the top - dressing demand in July will still support prices, but once domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. In the short term, policy expectations may fluctuate repeatedly, and it is recommended to wait and see for now (View Score: - 1) [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 25, compared with July 24, UR01 in Shandong increased by 11 yuan/ton (0.61%), UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.10%), UR05 increased by 18 yuan/ton (1.00%), and UR09 increased by 18 yuan/ton (1.01%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Henan, small - particle urea decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.09%); in Hebei and Northeast, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.55%) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, as well as the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu, remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 38 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information - In the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1786 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1813 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1803 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1798 yuan/ton. The holding volume of 2509 was 171,609 lots [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea spot prices are weakly operating. In the futures market, last week, urea futures showed an N - shaped trend. Looking ahead to next week, in an environment where commodity futures decline significantly, urea futures are expected to open and move lower. There is a possibility of a large outflow of cash - and - carry arbitrage goods, leading to a negative feedback loop, and the weak situation is expected to be maintained in the short term. However, domestic urea production has decreased month - on - month, external demand has increased month - on - month, and domestic demand has strengthened month - on - month. It is recommended to actively close short positions after a significant decline in futures and wait for opportunities to enter long positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: From July 17 - 24, 2025, the weekly average daily output was 19.35 million tons. It is expected to be 19.00 million tons from July 25 - 31, 19.00 million tons from August 1 - 7, and 19.43 million tons from August 8 - 14. Last week, 4 new enterprises stopped production and 4 resumed, and this week, 2 enterprises are expected to conduct maintenance and 2 stopped enterprises are expected to resume production [5]. - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is gradually ending and will basically disappear later [5]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 32.55% from July 17 - 24, 2025, and is expected to increase slowly. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 18 - 24), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.58%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03 percentage points. From January to June, the cumulative domestic thermal power generation was 2940.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Later, as the temperature rises, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification will increase [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this cycle, but the decline narrowed [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 1300 yuan, and the anthracite price fluctuated [5]. - **Profit**: The production profit of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 390 yuan and is expected to increase. The current profit is at a reasonable level, and with potential exports, the profit is expected to strengthen [5]. - **Strategy**: After a significant decline, maintain a long - position thinking for UR2509 and UR2509 - UR2601. For options, use a cumulative purchase option for UR2509 [5]. 3.2 Price - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: Data on domestic urea spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and different particle sizes in Shanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7][8]. - **International Urea Price and Spread**: Data on international urea prices, spreads such as small - particle urea (Shandong factory port - collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port - collection cost), and FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2021 - 2025 are presented [9][10]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: Data on the prices of phosphate and potassium fertilizers such as Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong potassium chloride from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12]. - **Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread**: Data on urea futures prices, basis, and inter - month spreads from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15]. 3.3 Supply - **Urea Production**: Data on the weekly average daily production of urea, natural - gas - made urea, and coal - made urea from 2021 - 2025 are presented [17][18]. - **Urea Cost and Profit**: Data on the cost of anthracite and bituminous coal, and the marginal profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi and the new process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 are presented [20][21]. - **Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: Data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 are presented [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - **Compound Fertilizer Industry**: Data on the start - up rate and inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][28]. - **Melamine Industry**: Data on the weekly output, price, and melamine/urea price ratio of melamine from 2021 - 2025 are presented [29][30]. - **Export**: Data on China's monthly and cumulative monthly urea export volume and year - on - year changes from 2021 - 2025 are presented [31][32]

尿素日报 | 2025-07-24 上游延续去库，库存降幅缩窄 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-23，尿素主力收盘1817元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1850 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1830元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：23 元/吨（+5）；河南基差：33元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：23元/吨（-5）；尿素生产利润300元/吨（-10），出口利润1082 元/吨（-1）。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端：截至2025-07-23，企业产能利用率85.08%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为85.88 万吨（-3.67），港口样本 库存量为54.10 万吨（+5.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-23，复合肥产能利用率32.55%（+2.72%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.24%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.94日（-0.12）。 尿素企业库存延续下降，但降幅收窄。近期国内尿素需求偏弱，尿素工厂整体接单及出货放缓。政策与宏观面对 尿素价格提振作用 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to show a volatile trend today. International urea prices are strong, but the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the urea futures market has been fluctuating. International supply is tight due to geopolitical factors, and Indian tender prices are expected to rise further, leading to strong international urea prices. In the domestic market, the operating rate has declined but remains high, and inventories are generally high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The overall domestic urea market still has an obvious oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (-70), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 17, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high operating rate and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Type | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (-70), Shandong spot is 1760 (-70), Henan spot is 1760 (0), and FOB China is 2584 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 09 contract is 1743 (+10), UR01 is 1718 (+8), UR05 is 1730 (+3), and the basis is 17 (-80) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 2630 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.035 million tons, and UR port inventory is 205,000 tons [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No recommendation for inter - period; For inter - variety, short the coal - based production profit at high prices [3] Core View - In mid - and early July, the second batch of urea export quotas was gradually confirmed to be less than the first batch. Currently, the export quotas have not started to circulate. It is the peak agricultural demand season, with scattered agricultural demand. The compound fertilizer industry's demand for urea is increasing, while industrial demand is weak. Urea production remains high, port inventory is rising, and upstream factory inventory is falling [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Information on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread is presented, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8][9][14] 2. Urea Output - The report shows the urea weekly output and urea device maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes information on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [15][16][25] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, and the differences between them, as well as urea export profit and disk export profit are provided, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [22][28][37] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report presents the compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and urea enterprise advance order days, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [43][38] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream factory inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream factory raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume is shown, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [41][44][47] Market Analysis Price and Basis - On July 15, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,731 yuan/ton (- 33). Henan small - particle ex - factory price was 1,830 yuan/ton (0), Shandong small - particle price was 1,810 yuan/ton (- 10), and Jiangsu small - particle price was 1,820 yuan/ton (- 20). Small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). Shandong basis was 79 yuan/ton (+ 23), Henan basis was 99 yuan/ton (+ 23), and Jiangsu basis was 89 yuan/ton (+ 13). Urea production profit was 280 yuan/ton (- 10), and export profit was 899 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1] Supply Side - As of July 15, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.27% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (- 5.08), and the port sample inventory was 48.50 million tons (+ 4.80) [1] Demand Side - As of July 15, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 29.83% (+ 0.58%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 62.56% (- 0.43%), and the urea enterprise advance order days were 5.94 days (+ 0.58) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today. Internationally, the urea price is strong due to supply tensions caused by international situation fluctuations and expected higher Indian tender prices. Domestically, there is still a significant oversupply situation, with high开工率 and inventory, weak industrial and agricultural demand, and no more - than - expected relaxation of export policies [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has been fluctuating recently. International supply tensions have led to a strong international urea price. In the domestic market, the开工 rate has declined slightly but remains high, and inventory is generally high. Industrial demand, including for compound fertilizers and melamine, has decreased, and agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The overall domestic urea market has a clear oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 99, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has decreased, but it is still a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate today, with a strong international price and a significant domestic oversupply situation and no more - than - expected relaxation of export policies [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has fluctuated between 8.4% and 19.3%. The ending inventory and actual consumption have also changed accordingly. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with an 11.0% growth rate [10]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1830, unchanged. The prices in Shandong and Henan are also 1830, unchanged. The FOB China price is 2582 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 09 contract is 1731, down 33; the price of UR01 is 1707, down 24; the price of UR05 is 1723, down 15 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 2630, unchanged. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.035 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 205,000 tons [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is experiencing a weakening trend with short - term oscillations. The domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, unable to support high prices. Although export orders are being executed, quota issues may continue to affect the market, leading to a mainly oscillating urea futures market [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market opened lower and moved lower, with weak intraday oscillations. Spot prices are declining due to weak domestic demand. Currently, urea plants have both maintenance and restart operations, with daily production fluctuating around 200,000 tons. There will be new production capacity coming online, and supply - side pressure is hard to relieve in the short term. Demand is mainly from agricultural and industrial sectors. Agricultural demand in the main delivery areas is decreasing, and compound fertilizer plants are operating at a low level. Exports support the domestic market, and inventory is decreasing, which also boosts the urea market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,757 yuan/ton, closed at 1,731 yuan/ton, down 1.70%. The trading volume was 201,388 lots (+3,396 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 3,239 lots and short positions increased by 6,384 lots [2] - **Spot**: Spot prices are continuing to decline. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation is stable, while the futures closing price has decreased. The basis in Shandong for the September contract is 99 yuan/ton (+23 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On July 15, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.56% [10]