1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract of asphalt showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 3,253 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 3,048 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 6.30%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will decrease, and the cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the domestic asphalt sample capacity utilization rate was 31.8792%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 308,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.79%. The sample enterprise output was 532,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 745,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22.53%. Refineries reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, and it is expected that supply pressure will continue to ease next week [5]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 10.4226%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.61 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, a month-on-month increase of 1.00 percentage point, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month-on-month increase of 4.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 576.02 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4.10%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 799.3871 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 34.46%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that short - term support will strengthen [6]. - **Inventory Side**: Social inventory was 897,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.26%. Factory inventory was 641,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.42%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20.00%. Social, factory, and port inventories are all decreasing [6]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Base - Spread Trend**: The report presents the base - spread trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [10][12]. - **Spread Analysis** - **主力合约价差**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [14][15]. - **沥青原油价格走势**: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [18]. - **原油裂解价差**: The report shows the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent), but no specific data analysis is provided [21][22]. - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势**: The report shows the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [26]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **各地区市场价走势**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong regions, but no specific data analysis is provided [28]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **沥青利润**: The report shows the profit trend of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [30]. - **焦化沥青利润价差走势**: The report shows the profit - spread trend between coking and asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [33][34]. - **Supply Side** - **出货量**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [36]. - **稀释沥青港口库存**: The report shows the port inventory of diluted asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [38]. - **产量**: The report shows the weekly and monthly output of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [41]. - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势**: The report shows the price trend of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output trend of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific data analysis is provided [46]. - **地炼沥青产量**: The report shows the output of refinery asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [49]. - **开工率**: The report shows the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [51]. - **检修损失量预估**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [54]. - **Inventory** - **交易所仓单**: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt, including total, social, and factory warehouses, but no specific data analysis is provided [57][59]. - **社会库存和厂内库存**: The report shows the social and factory inventories of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [62]. - **厂内库存存货比**: The report shows the inventory - to - stock ratio of factory inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided [65]. - **进出口情况**: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt, as well as the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [68][71] - **Demand Side** - **石油焦产量**: The report shows the output of petroleum coke, but no specific data analysis is provided [74]. - **表观消费量**: The report shows the apparent consumption of asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [77]. - **下游需求**: The report shows the downstream demand trends of asphalt, including highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion, but no specific data analysis is provided [80][81]. - **下游机械需求走势**: The report shows the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working - hour trends of excavators, but no specific data analysis is provided [85][87]. - **沥青开工率** - **重交沥青开工率**: The report shows the开工率 trend of heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [89]. - **按用途分沥青开工率**: The report shows the开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt by usage, but no specific data analysis is provided [92]. - **下游开工情况**: The report shows the开工 rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, but no specific data analysis is provided [95][97]. - **供需平衡表**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, showing data such as monthly downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output from January 2024 to November 2025 [100]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected to experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [105].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局偏弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格弱稳运行，成交表现偏弱，而螺纹钢供需格局未好转，产量虽有所回落，但 仍处年内相对高位，且库存去化有限，供应压力未缓解。与此同时，螺纹需求再度转弱，高频指标 下行且位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业未改善，需求表现偏弱，继续承压钢价。目前来看，供需 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月10日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为80.75%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量34.535万吨，环比增加4.89%,乙烯法企业产 量14.677万吨，环比减少0.63%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 3 每日观点 。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.6%，环比减少0.93个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为37.61%，环比减少0.21个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为39.4%，环比减少2.6个百 分点，低于历史平均 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年11月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货22760，基差+40；中性。 3、库存：11月7日LME锌库存较上日增加800吨至34900吨，11月7日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加1246吨至69268吨；偏空。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空减；偏空。 6、预期：LME库存仓单保持低位；上期所仓单保持高位；沪锌ZN2512：震荡 回落。 11月7日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 前结障 | 今开盘 | 覆高价 | 腰低价 | 收盘价 | 结模参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持合手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4610 - 4666. The factors affecting the market include supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and inventory levels. [6][8][9] - The bullish factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Bullish factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery. [12][13] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in production scheduling. [6] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors had varying trends in开工率, but overall, the current demand may remain sluggish. [6] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month. The double - ton spread was 2,249.75 yuan/ton, with no change in profit month - on - month. All were below the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] 3.2.4 Basis On November 5, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,630 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral. [9] 3.2.5 Inventory Factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 252,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 85,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%. It is neutral. [9] 3.2.6 Market MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.7 Main Position The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.8 Expectation The cost of calcium carbide - based production is weakening, and the cost of ethylene - based production is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, production, and inventory data of different types of PVC products and related downstream sectors. [15][16] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures contracts, which helps to understand the market sentiment and price dynamics. [18][21][22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials - Analyzes the price, cost - profit, and production status of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, etc., which are crucial for understanding the cost structure of calcium carbide - based PVC production. [27][30][32] 3.5.2 PVC Supply - Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, production volume, and maintenance of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production, reflecting the supply - side situation of PVC. [40][41][43] 3.5.3 PVC Demand - Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC, as well as the relationship with the real estate market and macro - economic indicators, which helps to understand the demand - side situation. [45][47][50] 3.5.4 Inventory - Analyzes the inventory levels of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory warehouses, ethylene - based factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises, which reflects the inventory status of the PVC market. [57][58] 3.5.5 Ethylene - Based - Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads, which are important for understanding the ethylene - based PVC market and international trade situation. [59][60] 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand situation of the market. [63]

每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动 预期，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1145元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1195元/吨，基差为-50元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.2万吨，较前一周减少0.01%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳回升。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 4 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 昨日行情概览 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.3174%，环比增加 0.239个百分点，全国样本企业出货33.13万吨，环比增加13.98%,样本企业产量为 55.6万吨，环比增加0.72%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.8万吨，环比减少10.05%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.5%，环比增加0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has not improved, and steel prices are seeking a bottom through oscillation [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed significantly. With increased production by construction steel mills, rebar output has been rising continuously, and the high inventory level has increased supply pressure. Although rebar demand has improved seasonally and high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, it is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the sustainability of the improvement is questionable. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices continue to face pressure. However, strong cost support is a positive factor. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and steel prices are oscillating to find a bottom [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of rebar has little change. Steel mill production has increased, leading to a continuous rise in output and high inventory, increasing supply pressure. Demand has seasonally improved but remains at a low level in recent years, and the sustainability is uncertain. In the context of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure. Cost support is strong, and rebar is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, with demand performance being a key factor [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.26%，环比增加0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量32.925万吨，环比增加4.10%,乙烯法企业产 量14.771万吨，环比减少1.76%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为50.54%，环比增加.68个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为37.83%，环比增加.96个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为42%，环比增加.799个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2512, it is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy around the 20 - day moving average, with some support from the cost line below [2] - For Stainless Steel 2512, it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On November 3, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,950 yuan, up 360 yuan from October 31; the price of LME Nickel was 15,115 dollars, down 135 dollars; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,630 yuan, down 25 yuan [11] - For spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,000 yuan on November 3, up 50 yuan; the price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi remained unchanged at 13,750 yuan [11] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 3, LME nickel inventory was 252,750 tons, an increase of 648 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 31,206 tons, a decrease of 182 tons [14] - As of October 31, the total nickel inventory was 48,746 tons, an increase of 1,050 tons [14] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 3, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 73,482 tons, a decrease of 175 tons compared to October 31 [18] - As of October 31, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons [17] Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On November 3, the price of Ni1.5% red clay nickel ore CIF was 58 dollars/wet ton, unchanged from October 31; the price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet ton was 923 yuan/nickel point, down 1.5 yuan [21] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,800 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 12,899 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,628 yuan [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 121,176 yuan/ton [26] Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: The firm price of nickel ore provides support for the cost line [6] - Negative factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; both domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate [6]