Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The report suggests that due to the increase in holiday overseas oil prices caused by intensified geopolitical conflicts, methanol is expected to open higher and may have a short - term rebound. However, it lacks upward momentum in the long run. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, and cost collapse still weighs heavily on coal - chemical products. But it is relatively inexpensive compared to downstream polyalkanes, and there is room for valuation repair. In terms of driving factors, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol is priced based on its fundamentals. Supply, including imports and inland supply, has rebounded rapidly, while demand has limited room for further growth, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation and insufficient upward momentum. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.61%) to 2275 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.67%) to 2217 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%) to 2208 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.56%) to 2242.5 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 2150 yuan/ton; the price in Guangdong increased by 2.5 yuan/ton (0.11%) to 2267.5 yuan/ton; the price in Shaanxi remained unchanged at 1955 yuan/ton; the price in Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged at 2210 yuan/ton; the price in Hubei remained unchanged at 2245 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.27%) to 1880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 26.5 to - 32.5 [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and natural gas prices remained unchanged, including Ordos Q5500 at 425 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 at 470 yuan/ton, Yulin Q6000 at 492.5 yuan/ton, industrial natural gas in Hohhot at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, and in Chongqing at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1]. - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained unchanged at 309.7 yuan/ton; natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 520 yuan/ton; Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at 619 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased by 26.5 yuan/ton (-11.06%) to - 266.07 yuan/ton; acetic acid profit decreased by 2.75 yuan/ton (-0.46%) to 595.43 yuan/ton; MTBE profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-9.44%) to 287.76 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at - 181.20 yuan/ton [1]. b. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2220 yuan/ton, closing at 2208 yuan/ton, rising 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 701,459 lots and an open interest of 824,339 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 251 - 256 US dollars/ton, with a lack of active bids and offers. The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 1.3 - 1.6% compared to the previous period, and there were no reported real - deal transactions within the week. For other Middle - Eastern regions, the reference negotiation price of shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 0.5 - 1.1%, and methanol factories in other Middle - Eastern regions intended to set higher prices for product sales. Attention should be paid to the latest methanol tender results and shipping capacity of some factories in other Middle - Eastern regions [1]. c. Trading Strategy - It is expected that the increase in overseas oil prices during the holiday will drive methanol to open higher and may lead to a short - term rebound. However, methanol lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-03甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：内地方面，前期下跌过程中贸易商和下游采购意愿较差，部分产区工厂处于累库状态，且煤制甲醇利润丰 厚下周初上游主动大幅让利刺激出货为主，看空后市情绪下，长协贸易商出货意愿强烈且有做空行为。而鲁北下游 MTBE开工维持低位，周内采购也有减少，下游也顺势压价，上半周销区同步走跌。但随着产销区甲醇价格跌破近一年 来最低点，底部空间下贸易商持货意愿增强以及部分补空单需求下，下半周内地甲醇行情逐止跌回稳。港口方面，亦是 呈现先跌后稳走势，上半周供需面表现偏弱下，期现货价格同步下行，基差亦有走弱，随着美国联邦法院暂停关税政策 ...

| 甲醇日评20250530: 向上动力不足, 偏弱震荡为主 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 2025/5/28 | 单位 | 2025/5/29 | 指标 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2289.00 | 2279.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 0.45% | 2232.00 | 2222.00 | 10.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 2218.00 | 2206.00 | 元/吨 | 12.00 | 0.54% | | | | | 2230.00 | 2237.50 | -0.34% | 太仓 | 元/呼 | -7.50 | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2150.00 | 2155.00 | -5.00 | -0.23% | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2265.00 | 2265.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Recent domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts involve more capacity output than the recovery, leading to a slight decrease in overall production [2]. - Last week, downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined, real - order trading volume decreased, and enterprise pending orders declined, while inland enterprise inventories continued to increase slightly [2]. - Last week, methanol port inventories increased slightly. In the East China region, the load of some downstream enterprises along the Yangtze River recovered, and other mainstream social warehouses had normal pick - up. In the South China region, the pick - up volume of mainstream warehouses was acceptable due to stable local and surrounding demand, and both imported and domestic trade supplies were replenished [2]. - The restart of ethylene plants in East China led to an increase in the operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry last week. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2260 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2224 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 69 yuan/ton, up 0.6757 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest was 805,879 lots, an increase of 15,591 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 144,747 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 5,997 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1970 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [2]. - The East - West price difference was 300 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 46 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 258 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 327 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 230 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 69 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.31 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 32.7 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 16.34 tons, an increase of 0.35 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 48.54 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 47.3 tons, a decrease of 8.88 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 38,400 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 87.04%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 50.8%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 9.52%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 91.07%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The operating rate of olefins was 83.82%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 543 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.73%, a decrease of 1.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.16%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 16.66%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.65%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of May 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.24 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 0.50 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 0.35 tons [2]. - As of May 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.60 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 3.52 tons, a decrease of 3.84 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 14.03% [2]. - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 83.84%, a year - on - year increase of 1.53%. The restart of ethylene plants in East China led to an increase in the industry's operating rate [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - There are concerns about inventory accumulation at ports, but the rate of inventory accumulation is still slow. The pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports will increase in June, and downstream MTO demand and traditional downstream demand are showing different trends. Meanwhile, methanol production profit remains relatively high [3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in Taicang, different regions' spot - to - main futures basis, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][22]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit, such as the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [26][27][31]. III. Methanol开工, Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations) [34][35][37]. IV. Regional Price Differences - It lists various regional price differences, like the price difference between North Shandong and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and South Shandong, etc. [39][49][53]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [44][56]. Market News and Important Data - **Inland**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 400 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 763 yuan/ton (-30). Inland methanol prices in different regions have changed, with inventory and pending orders in inland factories decreasing. For example, Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 334,010 tons (-1,760), and inland factory pending orders are 235,206 tons (-38,380) [1]. - **Ports**: Taicang methanol is 2320 yuan/ton (+5), and Longzhong's port total inventory is 490,379 tons (+6,479). Downstream MTO operating rate is 82.31% (-0.58%). Regional price differences have also changed [2]. Market Analysis - **Port demand**: There are plans for the resumption of work at downstream MTO Shenghong Sierbang, and attention should be paid to the rate of load increase. The pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports will increase in June, but the rate of port inventory accumulation is still slow [3]. - **Inland**: The operating rate of inland coal - based methanol is still high, but the rate of inventory accumulation has slowed down this week. The low load of MTBE in traditional downstream industries has dragged down the demand in Shandong [3]. - **Valuation**: Methanol production profit remains relatively high [3]. Strategy - Consider cautious short - selling hedging [4].

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 21 日 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-05-20 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 MTO装置恢复，但到港压力仍存 谨慎做空套保 地区价差方面：鲁北-西北-280价差-25元/吨（+58），太仓-内蒙-550价差-286元/吨（+20），太仓-鲁南-250价差-233 元/吨（-23）；鲁南-太仓-100价差-117元/吨（+23）；广东-华东-180价差-165元/吨（+10）；华东-川渝-200价差-223 元/吨（-38）。 市场分析 港口需求方面，下游MTO盛虹斯尔邦逐步结束检修复工，关注提负速率，港口需求有所回升；但港口供应压力仍 存，且伊朗装船顺畅，6月进口到港压力进一步加大，港口现实库存偏低，但后续有累库担忧，关注实际累库兑现 速率，另外天津渤化MTO检修仍等待兑现。内地方面，内地煤头甲醇开工仍偏高，内地持续累库周期，传统下游 方面，MTBE负荷偏低拖累山东需求。估值方面，甲醇生产利润仍偏高。 策略 风险 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤400元/吨（-20），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润798元/吨（-18）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2073元/吨（-58），内蒙北线基差401元/吨（-46），内蒙南线2120元 ...

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to be weak and consolidate in the short - term. The price of methanol is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2200 - 2270 [5]. - The fundamentals show that after the May Day holiday, the domestic methanol market trading atmosphere became dull, and local prices declined. The port market maintained a linkage between spot and futures. Although the spot basis in the port was firm before the holiday, the price was under pressure after the holiday due to the expected increase in supply [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For methanol 2509, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory in East and South China ports decreased, which is bullish; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish; the net long position of the main force decreased, which is bullish. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2200 - 2270 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some plants have shut down or have maintenance plans; the expected imports in March are low, and the port inventory has decreased more than expected; the olefin start - up is at a high level, and the traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season; the inventory of methanol plants in the production areas is tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the start - up of refineries in northern Shandong is at a low level; the weather in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although the methanol price has increased significantly recently, it is difficult to pass on the cost, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the downstream; upstream plants are actively selling goods under high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.86% week - on - week; in Hebei, it decreased by 5.49% week - on - week. The futures closing price of the main contract increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2239 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Inventory data**: As of April 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 34.86 tons, a decrease of 10.16 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 7.44 tons to 19.83 tons [5]. - **Spread data**: The basis decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 183 yuan/ton; the import spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 7 yuan/ton [7]. - **Profit data**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 60 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged; the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol decreased by 340 yuan/ton [20]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the operating rate in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [7][21]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Shanxi Huayu, Henan Hebi, and Anhui Tanxin. Some plants in Inner Mongolia, like Jiutai, Xin'ao, and Inner Mongolia Rongxin, have maintenance plans in mid - to - late March [6]. - **Foreign plants**: In Iran, some plants such as ZPC, Kimiaya are reported to be in the process of recovery, while others like KRS are operating stably. In other countries, plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. are generally operating normally [56].

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 8 日 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 ...