Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months despite rising inflation risks [1] - Powell indicated that the current economic outlook and risk balance may necessitate adjustments to monetary policy [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September surged to nearly 90% following Powell's remarks, interpreted as dovish by many institutions [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. job market showed signs of cooling in July, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% and non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, below the expected 110,000 [2] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - Some Federal Reserve officials expressed skepticism about the need for rate cuts, citing ongoing inflation concerns and the need for more data before making decisions [2] Group 3 - President Trump criticized Powell's stance, arguing that there is no inflation risk and calling for immediate rate cuts, expressing dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3] - Following Powell's speech, U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, while the dollar index fell by 0.8%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropped by over 7.5 basis points to 4.256% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The annual Jackson Hole global central bank conference is taking place from August 21 to 23, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech being a focal point. Analysts suggest that Powell is unlikely to provide clear guidance on interest rate cuts, and if any guidance is given, it may lean towards a hawkish stance [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - The current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma, with uncertainty regarding the labor market's deterioration and accumulating inflation risks due to tariffs increasing corporate costs [2][3]. - Powell's views on the labor market and inflation risks are crucial, as his perception of whether the labor market has "cooled to policy goals" will directly impact the necessity for rate cuts [2][3]. - The U.S. July non-farm payroll data was significantly below market expectations, leading to a market consensus that the Fed would begin cutting rates in September, with expectations of three cuts this year [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market sentiment appears to be preparing for hawkish signals from Powell, with the S&P 500 index declining for five consecutive trading days, particularly in the tech sector [7]. - If Powell's speech leans towards a dovish tone, confirming a potential rate cut in September, it could alleviate market concerns and boost the stock market. Conversely, a cautious or hawkish stance could trigger a new wave of selling [7]. - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 index has averaged a 0.9% increase in the five trading days surrounding past Jackson Hole meetings, suggesting that the market often gains certainty from the Fed Chair's remarks [7]. Group 3: Dollar and Commodity Impacts - Powell's emphasis on inflation pressures could lead to a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields, while a dovish stance might weaken the dollar [7][9]. - Gold prices are currently fluctuating with the dollar's movements, and if Powell adopts a dovish tone, gold and other safe-haven assets may strengthen in the following days [8].

近期，贸易、地缘局势缓和，市场避险需求下降。另外，由于美国劳动力市场降温，叠加通胀温和反 弹，市场已基本定价美联储9月降息25个基点的预期，白银短期或陷入高位震荡整理。仍需等待美联储 政策预期进一步明朗化，重点关注8月美国的通胀和非农就业报告情况，不排除9月降息不及预期的可 能。 美国降息必要性上升 根据美国联邦基金利率期货隐含的降息预期，明年上半年美联储利率可能降至3.3%~3.5%，目前联邦基 金利率为4.25%~4.5%，即有1个百分点的降息空间。预计美联储将在9月和12月议息会议上分别降息25 个基点，明年上半年仍有两次降息的可能性，但降息预期能否落地更多取决于数据的表现。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 美联储独立性担忧加剧 特朗普再次上台以来，曾多次在个人社交媒体和公开场合批评美联储主席鲍威尔，指责美联储政策引发 通胀且没有很好解决通胀问题，在降息问题上行动迟缓等。近日，特朗普对美联储持续施压，喊话美联 储理事库克立即辞职。 随着美联储主席鲍威尔任期临近结束，市场对美联储政策独立性的担忧可能进一步发 ...

美联储独立性担忧加剧 近期，贸易、地缘局势缓和，市场避险需求下降。另外，由于美国劳动力市场降温，叠加通胀温和反 弹，市场已基本定价美联储9月降息25个基点的预期，白银短期或陷入高位震荡整理。仍需等待美联储 政策预期进一步明朗化，重点关注8月美国的通胀和非农就业报告情况，不排除9月降息不及预期的可 能。 美国降息必要性上升 美国近几个月的通胀并未出现此前市场预期的由于关税政策影响大幅上升的情况，通胀整体表现温和。 美国7月CPI环比增0.2%，较6月放缓0.1个百分点，同比增2.7%，与前值持平；核心CPI环比增0.3%，较 6月增加0.1个百分点，同比增3.1%，高于前值和市场预期，整体呈现出名义增速放缓，但核心增速上涨 的特征。虽然关税给美国带来了输入性通胀的压力，但其主要作用于占比较小的核心商品领域，而美国 以服务消费为主，因此其长期通胀水平仍然取决于核心服务。预计美国长期通胀维持高位震荡，但下半 年通胀预期仍有回落可能，美联储 9月降息的压力降低。 疫情之后，美国劳动力市场表现出一定韧性。今年上半年以来，美国新增非农就业人数有所下调，一方 面经济增长放缓，另一方面移民、政府部门裁员政策对就业也有冲击。2 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting minutes indicate that tariffs imposed on global trade partners will continue to impact U.S. consumer and service prices [1][2] - Evidence suggests that foreign exporters have only absorbed a small portion of the tariff costs, with the majority being borne by U.S. domestic businesses and consumers [2] - The Fed's assessment aligns with previous evaluations during Trump's first term, indicating that over 90% of tariff costs are ultimately passed on to U.S. consumers, contributing to inflationary pressures [2][3] Tariff Impact on Prices - Tariffs have led to upward pressure on commodity prices, with significant declines in U.S. goods and services observed in Q2 due to high tariffs [3] - The Fed anticipates that inflation will gradually rise as actual prices increase alongside tariff hikes [3] Employment and Economic Activity - The Fed's minutes reveal a notable increase in downside risks to employment, with signs of a weakening labor market as economic activity and consumer spending slow [5] - Recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a slowdown in non-farm employment growth for July, with revisions to previous months indicating a trend of labor market weakness [6] - The combination of persistent inflation threats and a weakening labor market may compel the Fed to consider a rate cut in September, potentially by 25 basis points [6]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 775.50 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.35% [1] - The highest and lowest points for gold futures today were 777.50 CNY and 775.40 CNY respectively, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] Group 2 - Allianz Group's chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, believes that the Federal Reserve may be acting too slowly regarding interest rate cuts [3] - El-Erian suggests that the Fed should have initiated rate cuts last month, highlighting the risks of relying too heavily on data [3] - Recent inflation data presents a mixed picture, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose significantly by 3.3% compared to the previous year [3] - Despite rising inflation, El-Erian notes that price growth expectations remain relatively stable due to structural changes in the supply side of the economy [3] - The U.S. job market is showing signs of deterioration, with July's job creation falling short of expectations and previous months' job growth data revised down by a total of 258,000 [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 788 CNY and 847 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 773 CNY and 830 CNY [4]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two additional cuts in 2026, lowering the terminal rate to between 3% and 3.25% [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) data for July showed a slight increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, aligning with economists' expectations, while gasoline prices fell by 2.2% [2][3] - Following the release of weak non-farm payroll data, Goldman Sachs indicated that the adjustment in employment growth data was the most significant in 57 years, suggesting a potential reduction in monthly job growth expectations by 45,000 to 80,000 [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 93%, with a 7% chance for a 50 basis point cut [4] - Traders anticipate a total rate cut of approximately 65 basis points this year, an increase from previous predictions of around 60 basis points [5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has advocated for a 50 basis point cut, citing recent weak employment data as a reason for a more significant reduction [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will implement its first interest rate cut in September and will lower rates twice within the year [1] Inflation and Tariffs - July inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is relatively mild [1] - Research by Cavallo et al. shows that after tariffs are announced, the maximum increase in commodity prices occurs within 10-15 weeks (3-4 months) [1] - Due to weak perceived demand, companies only pass on 50-60% of the tariff pressure to consumers, preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Future Outlook - With an expected increase in tariffs in August, core inflation may continue to rise moderately [1] - Weak corporate demand and a weakening labor market will constrain the extent of inflation increases [1] - The slowdown in demand and accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants suggest that the labor market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the nomination of E.J. Antony by President Trump to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) following the dismissal of the previous director due to dissatisfaction with employment data [1][4]. - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [2][4]. - Antony, who has been critical of the previous employment data, is expected to ensure the accuracy of the data published by the BLS, which has faced scrutiny regarding its reliability [1][5]. Group 2 - The nomination comes just before the scheduled release of July inflation data, with expectations that consumer prices will rise for the third consecutive month due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [4]. - Concerns have been raised about the reliability of U.S. economic data, with a significant number of economists expressing worries about the declining quality of data collection and reporting by the BLS [5]. - The BLS has faced challenges such as reduced staffing and budget cuts, leading to a decrease in the sample size for the Consumer Price Index and the cessation of certain data releases, which may further compromise data integrity [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the nomination of E.J. Antony by President Trump to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) following dissatisfaction with the employment data released by the BLS [1] - The U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 [1] - The previous employment data for May and June was revised down sharply, indicating a cooling job market, with May's jobs revised from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [1] Group 2 - The nomination of Antony is expected to face little resistance in the Senate, where the Republican Party holds a majority [2] - The announcement of the nomination came just before the scheduled release of July inflation data, with predictions of a continued rise in the Consumer Price Index due to Trump's tariff policies [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data, particularly due to declining response rates and difficulties in data collection faced by the BLS [2][3] Group 3 - A survey conducted by Reuters among 100 economists and policy experts revealed widespread concern about the declining quality of U.S. economic data [3] - Former BLS director Erica Groshen expressed worries that staffing reductions could lead to unnoticed biases or errors in economic reports [3]