每经AI快讯，12月23日消息，比利时12月CPI同比上涨2.06%，环比上涨0.07%。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025-12-23 [2] - Researcher: Chen Sijia [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Certificate: F03118799 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0022803 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be adjusted strongly. Attention should be paid to the support at 23,000 and the upper level at 23,400 [4]. - The upstream zinc ore import volume has declined, and the losses of Chinese imported zinc concentrates have widened. The domestic refinery's raw material winter reserve has started, and it prefers to purchase domestic zinc concentrates. However, the competition among refineries to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the domestic and foreign processing fees have dropped significantly. The profits of domestic refineries have shrunk, and the output is expected to decline significantly. Recently, the price of LME zinc has corrected, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may be closed again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning to the off-season, the real estate sector is a drag, the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has been oscillating and adjusting, the trading is dull, the spot premium is high and stable, the domestic inventory has increased slightly, the LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 23,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [3]. - LME Three-Month Zinc Quote: 3,078 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 US dollars [3]. - Shanghai Zinc Total Open Interest: 198,719 lots, an increase of 3,609 lots [3]. - Shanghai Zinc Top 20 Net Open Interest: 3,279 lots, an increase of 1,678 lots [3]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory: 76,017 tons, a decrease of 4,560 tons [3]. - LME Inventory: 99,250 tons, a decrease of 650 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network 0 Zinc Spot Price: 23,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [3]. - Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market 1 Zinc Spot Price: 22,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [3]. - ZN Main Contract Basis: 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan [3]. - LME Zinc Premium (0 - 3): -33.43 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.82 US dollars [3]. - Kunming 50% Zinc Concentrate Factory Price: 20,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 870 yuan [3]. - Shanghai 85% - 86% Broken Zinc Price: 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - WBMS: Zinc Supply and Demand Balance: -35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons [3]. - ILZSG: Zinc Supply and Demand Balance: 20,300 tons, a decrease of 27,600 tons [3]. - ILZSG: Global Zinc Mine Production: 1.0666 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons [3]. - Domestic Refined Zinc Production: 665,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons [3]. - Zinc Ore Import Volume: 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - Refined Zinc Import Volume: 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons [3]. - Refined Zinc Export Volume: 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - Zinc Social Inventory: 1.192 million tons, an increase of 500 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - Galvanized Sheet Production: 2.34 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [3]. - Galvanized Sheet Sales: 2.42 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons [3]. - New Housing Starts Area: 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters [3]. - Housing Completion Area: 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - Automobile Production: 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles [3]. - Air Conditioner Production: 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 6. Option Market - Zinc At-the-Money Call Option Implied Volatility: 18.84%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Put Option Implied Volatility: 18.84%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Option 20-Day Historical Volatility: 13.07%, unchanged [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Option 60-Day Historical Volatility: 11.67%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months: the 5-year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR is 3% [3]. - Trump's "appointed" director Milan said that if the Federal Reserve does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a risk of recession. The Federal Reserve's voting members in 2025 are hawkish: there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months, and the CPI in November was underestimated [3].

首席点评： 有色新高，能化亮眼 中国 LPR 连续七个月维持不变，12 月 5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%，1 年期 LPR 为 3%。 中国央行：单笔逾期金额在 1 万元以下可一次性修复个人信用，明年 1 月 1 日起 正式实施。特朗普"钦点"理事米兰：美联储明年不继续降息就有衰退风险；美联 储明年票委放鹰：未来几个月内没必要降息，11 月 CPI 被低估。金银铜齐创历 史新高，黄金盘中涨超 2%、时隔两月再创新高，白银和伦铜连续两日创新高，现 货白银一度涨超 3%，伦铜四连涨；报道显示美国发力封锁委内瑞拉石油出口，原 油四连涨至逾一周新高，盘中涨近 3%。 重点品种：贵金属，原油，油脂 贵金属：国际黄金白银刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期，引发市场质疑， 但 CPI 整体下行趋势为降息提供空间。美国 11 月非农数据分化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率上行至 4.6%。疲软的就业数据支持 美联储继续降息，流动性宽松预期仍对贵金属价格形成提振。从长期角度来看， ...

Market Analysis & Strategy - MN Fund's allocations remain relatively large in the markets, with a high focus on volatility trading [1] - Macroeconomic events are crucial for MN Fund in building their strategy and thesis [1] Economic Indicators - US Unemployment Rate: Reported at 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.4% [1] - CPI Data: Reported at 2.7%, falling short of the expected 3.1% [1] Monetary Policy - Bank of Japan decided to increase their interest rates by 25 bps (basis points) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points (previous value: 129.1 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points (previous increase: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 3.4% (previous value: 3.5%) [2][10]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.7 (previous value: 127.7), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 40.8 (previous value: 41.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.1 (previous value: 122.2), with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.4 points (previous increase: 0.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 121.1 (previous value: 121.0), with a week - on - week increase of 3.4 points (previous increase: 3.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%); the month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.2%) [2][11]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 163.6 (previous value: 163.4), with a week - on - week increase of 7.4 points (previous increase: 7.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The high - frequency transportation index is 133.7 (previous value: 133.4), with a week - on - week increase of 11.0 points (previous increase: 10.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The high - frequency financing index is 245.2 (previous value: 244.6), with a week - on - week increase of 30.9 points (previous increase: 30.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and its sub - items are built [9]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points, with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded [2][10]. 3.2 Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Rises - The current electric furnace operating rate is 60.9% (previous value: 60.3%); the polyester operating rate is 88.9% (previous value: 88.9%); the semi - tire operating rate is 71.4% (previous value: 71.6%); the full - tire operating rate is 64.1% (previous value: 64.1%); the PTA operating rate is 73.8% (previous value: 73.8%); the PX operating rate is 89.2% (previous value: 89.2%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 42.4 tons (previous value: 43.9 tons) [16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Recovers - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the current week is 34.9 million square meters (previous value: 27.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.7% (previous value: 1.9%) [27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Fluctuates Narrowly - The current asphalt operating rate is 27.6% (previous value: 27.8%) [42]. 3.5 Exports: Freight Rate Index Rises Slightly - The current CCFI index is 1124.7 points (previous value: 1118.1 points); the RJ/CRB index is 293.9 points (previous value: 300.3 points) [44]. 3.6 Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Declines - The daily average movie box office is 98.36 million yuan (previous value: 171.46 million yuan) [53]. 3.7 CPI: Fruit Prices Rise - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [60]. 3.8 PPI: Kerosene Prices Fall, Copper and Aluminum Spot Prices Continue to Rise - The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 719 yuan/ton (previous value: 761 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 60 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 62 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 11,739 US dollars/ton (previous value: 11,692 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,855 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,849 US dollars/ton) [64]. 3.9 Transportation: Subway Passenger Volume Declines - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the current week is 38.63 million person - times (previous value: 39.83 million person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1051 points (previous value: 1052 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,172 (previous value: 12,137) [75]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases Significantly - The current electrolytic aluminum inventory is 190,000 tons (previous value: 167,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 151,600 tons (previous value: 149,800 tons) [82]. 3.11 Financing: Local Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local bonds in the week is 28.1 billion yuan (previous value: 62.3 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 57.5 billion yuan (previous value: 73.2 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91% (previous value: 0.84%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.72% (previous value: - 0.79%) [94].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts. [5][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2602 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 21,600 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 22,200 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. From January to November, it increased by 6.0% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries, 30 had year - on - year growth in added value in November. The US November unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The core CPI also significantly missed expectations, rising 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since March 2021. [4][10][11] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In November 2025, there was an alumina supply surplus of 590,000 tons. As of November 2025, domestic alumina production was 8.138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. As of December 11, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period. [13] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 19, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 120,510 tons, an increase of 515 tons from the previous week. As of December 18, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 519,600 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, with the cancelled warrant ratio at 14.2%. As of December 18, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 510,000 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous day. [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various economic indicators and market trends during different time intervals, including price changes, industry growth, and investment-related data [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Time Interval Analysis - **Market and Industry Indicators**: During Dec 15 - Dec 19, 2025 (also Dec 21, 2025), there were changes in multiple market and industry indicators such as shipping (BDI), inflation (CPI, PPI), and financial rates (SHIBOR, BPDR, BPGC). For example, the BDI increased by a certain percentage, and CPI and PPI had specific growth rates [1][3] - **Industry and Investment**: Different industries showed distinct trends. The shipping industry had fluctuations in freight rates; the chemical industry had changes in production and sales volumes; and the financial market had adjustments in interest rates and investment yields [1][3] Other Time Interval Analysis - **Long - Term Trends**: Analyses of long - term data from various sources (Wind) showed trends in different economic and market indicators over years, which could help in understanding the overall economic situation and making investment decisions [13][22] - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: Specific industries like shipping, chemical, and finance were analyzed in detail, including factors affecting their performance, such as supply and demand, cost changes, and policy impacts [1][3]

I spoke with @jvisserlabs this week to break down the latest CPI data and what it means for the Fed’s next move.We discussed artificial intelligence, including how it’s changing the way people work, learn, and create an edge in their careers.We also cover bitcoin, macro positioning, and specific companies and organizations investors should be paying attention to right now.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/S3FpWr7gvwSpotify: https://t.co/HU1Jn3FDreApple: https://t.co/pmaxKtPYvYTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro0:45 – CPI tak ...

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - CPI数据低于预期，但美联储更关注劳动力市场，通胀可能在明年超过3%，但总体风险在劳动力方面[1] - 汽油价格处于四年低位，工资下降，通胀互换处于年度低点，市场预期美联储明年可能不会降息[1] - AI是潜在的通货紧缩力量，可能限制工资增长，并对劳动力市场产生长期影响[1][2] - 市场出现轮动，资金从成长股转向价值股，从小盘股转向大盘股，这种轮动可能预示着PMI指数上升[2] - 预计被市场遗忘的股票将跑赢拥挤的领头羊，AI基础设施股赚钱难度加大，视觉语言模型（VLM）将成为关注点[2] - 数据中心建设、AI发展和同步升级周期将推动PMI指数上升，但如果大型科技公司表现不佳，可能导致市场出现20%的回调风险[2] Investment Opportunities & Risks - 看好Tesla，认为它将是Mag 7中表现最好的股票，同时Nvidia和Apple也将表现出色，不看好超大规模企业和基于代码构建的公司[2] - Oracle面临风险，因其资产负债表使用方式和收入不足以抵消风险，但相信其收入将在明年加速增长[3] - 传统金融公司Cisco将受益于AI驱动的流量和网络安全需求增长，稳定币交易量增加也将利好Bitcoin[46][47][64] - 银行是AI交易的受益者，因为它们有能力利用AI取代知识型员工，制药公司也在向AI药物发现转型[49][51] - 比特币需要连续三天收于92,000美元上方才能改变下行趋势，AI吸走了本应流入加密货币的资金，但这种情况将在今年开始改变[57][63] AI & Technological Disruption - AI代理正在攻击知识型员工，个人需要成为AI原生，利用AI代理，而不是被AI代理取代[5][6] - 法律公司采用AI的动机可能是为了显得具有AI能力，但实际使用率可能不高，因为效率提高可能会减少按小时计费的收入[4] - 投资者在公开市场中缺乏参与AI趋势的途径，与私人市场相比，公开市场中可投资的AI公司数量不足[39][41] - AI的真正价值在于视觉语言模型（VLM），而不是传统的人工智能，Tesla是一家AI公司，因为它需要计算机视觉来实现机器人出租车和人形机器人[49][46]

年关将近，又有网友询问南生：2025年的中国GDP能达到20万亿美元吗？ 最近两个月来，CPI走势略有好转，叠加之前的基数影响，不难推算：2025年全年的中国经济实际增长率为5%左右，名义增长率在3.95%至4%区间。 从而得知：我国2025年的GDP大约为140.3万亿元左右，按平均汇率换算成美元为19.64万亿，达不到20万亿美元。 南生给出的结论是达不到，无法完成了，并预测我国GDP将扩大至140.3万亿元人民币左右，按年度平均汇率折算成美元在19.64万亿左右。 理由如下： 截止到2025年12月19日，我国人民币与美元的平均汇率为7.1463，也就是平均接近7.15元人民币才能兑换1美元。 后面只有8个工作日了，不会对年度平均汇率产生过大的影响，我们按当前走势推算：人民币在2025年与美元的日均中间价平均汇率大约为7.1433。 再看各季度的GDP走势：第一季度，我国名义GDP为318758亿元人民币，与上年同期的304761.8亿元相比，名义增长4.6%，实际上涨5.4%，通缩依然存在。 第二季度，我国GDP按现价计算为341777.8亿元，上年同期为328837.6亿元，名义增长率接近4%，实际 ...