Inflation Overview - July CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth fell below expectations[1] - July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining flat year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%[2] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods prices fell by 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Year-on-year growth in July was driven by other goods and services (8.0%), clothing (1.7%), and healthcare (0.5%), while food and tobacco prices fell by 0.8%[2] - Food prices contributed to a 0.29 percentage point decline in CPI year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices adding 0.22 percentage points to CPI growth[2] - Service prices accounted for approximately 0.26 percentage points of the month-on-month CPI increase, representing over 60% of the total CPI rise[6] PPI Insights - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline in production materials contributing significantly[15] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was the first narrowing since March, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties[16] - The overall PPI decline was impacted by eight industries, which collectively contributed approximately 0.24 percentage points to the PPI decrease[16] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline due to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries[20] - Seasonal and policy factors may cause fluctuations in various price segments, particularly in food and durable goods[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the "anti-involution" policy led to a narrowing of the PPI month-on-month decline to -0.2%, while the CPI for industrial consumer goods improved, contributing to a third consecutive month of core CPI year-on-year recovery. However, the impact of supply-side capacity management on prices is more moderate compared to 2016, with PPI year-on-year decline remaining at a two-year low of -3.6% and CPI year-on-year turning flat [2][19]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0% in July, primarily dragged down by food items, while core CPI rose to 0.8% [4]. - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing a marginal drag of 0.30 percentage points to the overall CPI [8]. - Seasonal supply of fresh vegetables and fruits was abundant, leading to a significant year-on-year decline in their prices, with fresh vegetables down 7.6% and fresh fruits up 2.8% [8][11]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month decline narrowed from -0.4% to -0.2% in July, but the year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, indicating limited effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures on price uplift [19]. - Key industries such as coal, steel, and cement have implemented capacity management measures, which have led to a reduction in the month-on-month price declines for these sectors [19]. - International factors continue to pressure export-related prices, while domestic oil and non-ferrous metal prices have seen increases due to external input factors [20]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures have led to a faster increase in futures prices compared to spot prices, indicating market expectations are ahead of actual supply-side adjustments [24]. - Looking ahead, the diminishing drag from tailing factors may lead to improvements in PPI year-on-year in August and CPI year-on-year in the fourth quarter, but sustained inflation recovery will require stronger policy support and a focus on expanding domestic demand [24]. - The current supply-side price uplift is more challenging and softer compared to 2016, with a broader range of industries involved, including upstream raw materials and downstream sectors [24].

Core Insights - The expansion of domestic demand policies is showing positive effects, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a 0.1% decline in June [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline is narrowing compared to June, marking the first month of reduced decline since March [1][4] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods, with service prices up 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up 0.5% [2][3] - Key contributors to the service price increase included airfare (up 17.9%), tourism (up 9.1%), hotel accommodation (up 6.9%), and vehicle rental (up 4.4%) [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, indicating a continuous upward trend [2][5] PPI Analysis - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment, affecting prices in certain industries [4][6] - The construction sector faced demand slowdowns due to seasonal weather conditions, while the electricity sector saw reduced demand for coal due to increased hydropower generation [4] - The competitive market environment is improving, with significant reductions in price declines for coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium battery industries [4][6] Industry Trends - The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, along with the rapid growth of emerging industries, are contributing to a year-on-year price recovery in related sectors [5][6] - The implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives is driving healthy development in the consumer market, leading to price increases in sectors such as arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional foods [6][7]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, driven by rising service and industrial consumer goods prices [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, reflecting effective demand expansion and improved market supply-demand dynamics [3][6] - Food prices saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, primarily due to a high base from the previous year, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 7.6% [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July, with the decline remaining consistent with June, although some industries showed signs of price recovery [4][5] - The month-on-month PPI fell by 0.2%, but this marked the first narrowing of the decline since March, indicating improved market competition and price stabilization in certain sectors [5][6] - Industries such as coal mining, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic manufacturing experienced reduced price declines compared to June, contributing to a less negative PPI [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that proactive macroeconomic policies will continue to support demand recovery, leading to a stabilization of domestic prices [6] - New policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as support for childbirth and early education, are expected to further stimulate domestic demand and contribute to a gradual recovery in CPI [6] - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are projected to elevate industrial product prices in August compared to July, with a significant reduction in year-on-year price bases expected to aid in this recovery [6]

Core Insights - The July PPI improved on a month-on-month basis but remained unchanged year-on-year at -3.6%, slightly below market expectations, indicating a disconnect in price transmission from upstream raw materials to downstream industries [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to significant price increases in key commodities such as coal, steel, and lithium, but these increases have not effectively translated into higher industrial product prices [2][3] - The ongoing "pig cycle misalignment" has resulted in CPI slightly exceeding market expectations, driven by unexpected price increases in core goods, energy, and other services [5][6] PPI Analysis - The month-on-month PPI improved due to rising commodity prices, but the year-on-year figure did not show improvement, highlighting weak downstream demand and limited pricing power for enterprises [1][3] - The analysis framework indicates that while upstream raw material prices have improved, the PPI for downstream industries has continued to decline, particularly in the export chain [4] - The dual impact of supply-side policies and demand-side pressures is evident, with the export chain facing significant downward pressure [4] CPI Insights - The CPI for July was reported at 0.0% year-on-year, slightly above the expected -0.1%, driven by durable goods benefiting from trade-in subsidies and rising energy prices [5][6] - The increase in CPI was significantly influenced by the price hikes in gold and platinum jewelry, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the overall CPI [5] - Expectations for CPI improvement are projected for September, considering the ongoing misalignment in the pig cycle and slow recovery in consumer spending [6] Market Implications - The bond market may experience low volatility as CPI and PPI figures align closely with market expectations, with a focus on inflation recovery and potential demand-side policies [7] - The overall economic environment remains sensitive to both domestic policy effectiveness and international trade dynamics, which could influence future market performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the July inflation data, highlighting the unexpected performance of PPI and CPI, and suggests that PPI may have reached its bottom with potential for recovery in the coming months [3][6][11]. Group 1: PPI Analysis - PPI in July decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, which was below market expectations, primarily due to the impact of "anti-involution" policies and a lag in response to high-frequency price increases [3][11]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties, which affected prices in several industries, leading to a 0.24 percentage point drag on PPI [5][34]. - The article anticipates that the PPI year-on-year decline cycle, which began in October 2021, may have ended, with a potential second recovery phase starting next month due to favorable low base effects from last year [6][16][18]. Group 2: CPI Insights - CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0% in July, aligning with the five-year average, while core CPI increased by 0.8% [4][22]. - Key contributors to CPI included a seasonal increase in housing rental demand, with rents rising by 0.1%, and improvements in durable goods prices, particularly in transportation and household appliances [4][25]. - The core service prices rose approximately 1.1%, driven by increased travel and medical service costs during the summer season [4][27]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The economic cycle indicator, "the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits," has been rising for six consecutive months, suggesting improved consumer sentiment and economic recovery, which may positively influence PPI [7][17]. - The article notes that while PPI may not turn positive this year, the ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to gradually improve market conditions and pricing [8][19]. Group 4: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The proportion of CPI items experiencing price increases rose seasonally, indicating a recovery in price dynamics [38]. - The proportion of industries with rising PPI prices slightly increased, reflecting a gradual improvement in market conditions [39][42]. - The article emphasizes that the ongoing optimization of domestic market competition is contributing to a narrowing of price declines in several sectors, including coal, steel, and solar energy [5][35].

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has shown effects, contributing to the improvement of the PPI month-on-month in July, addressing the core issue of low-price competition caused by supply-demand imbalance [1][3]. Group 1: PPI Data and Trends - In July, the PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first month-on-month narrowing since March this year [2]. - Key industries such as coal mining, black metal smelting, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, cement manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw a reduction in price decline, contributing less to the PPI drop [2]. - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6% in July, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with the PPI growth rate remaining in negative territory for 34 consecutive months [3]. Group 2: Impact of Policies - The "anti-involution" policies are believed to have driven the price recovery in cyclical industries, as indicated by the price trends in futures markets for coal, steel, and cement [2][3]. - The central government's emphasis on promoting a unified national market and optimizing market competition order is expected to continue influencing PPI trends positively [3][4]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are likely to favor leading enterprises, while the exit of outdated and excess capacities may cause short-term market pain [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Continuous observation is needed to assess the extent of PPI improvement and whether the year-on-year growth rate can turn positive, as the balance of supply and demand requires time to correct [4]. - The need for effective counter-cyclical policies to stimulate domestic demand is highlighted as crucial for sustaining the effects of the "anti-involution" policies and alleviating competitive pressures among enterprises [5].

国内需求继续修复 7月份物价运行边际改善 国家统计局8月9日发布的数据显示，7月份，我国CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%，涨幅高于季 节性水平0.1个百分点，同比持平；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩 大，为2024年3月以来最高。"这表明国内需求继续修复。"广开首席产业研究院首席金融研究员王运金 说。 物价是反映市场供需情况的重要指标。上半年，我国CPI同比下降0.1%，意味着国内消费仍然有待提 振。"这也给下半年我国宏观政策，特别是货币政策提出了新要求。"中国人民大学经济学院教授范志勇 说，预计下半年货币政策还会进一步发力。 事实上，从中央到各有关部门对当前价格和内需形势都有着深刻认识和共识。宏观政策部署更为超前。 今年6月24日，中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部等6部门就联合对外发布了《关于金融 支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费 潜力、促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提出19项重点举措。 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦 ...

Group 1 - In July, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the first narrowing of the decline since March [1] - Seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment contributed to price declines in certain industries, with high temperatures and increased rainfall affecting construction demand and reducing electricity coal demand [1] - The optimization of domestic market competition has led to a reduction in the month-on-month price decline in industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium batteries, collectively reducing the downward impact on PPI by 0.14 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the PPI in July decreased by 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, indicating improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries due to ongoing macroeconomic policies [1] - Traditional industry upgrades and the growth of emerging industries have led to price increases in specific sectors, such as aircraft manufacturing (up 3.0%), wearable smart devices (up 1.6%), and microwave communication equipment (up 0.9%) [2] - The implementation of consumer stimulus actions has positively impacted the consumption market, resulting in year-on-year price increases in sectors like arts and crafts (up 13.1%), sports balls (up 5.3%), and nutritional food manufacturing (up 1.3%) [2]

8月9日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，7月PPI(全国工业生产者出厂价格指数)环比下降0.2%，降幅较上 月收窄0.2个百分点，这是今年3月以来环比降幅首次收窄。 具体来看，7月，煤炭开采和洗选业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、光伏设备及元器件制造、水泥制 造、锂离子电池制造，价格环比降幅比上月分别收窄1.9、1.5、0.8、0.3和0.1个百分点，合计对PPI环比 的下拉影响较上月减少0.14个百分点。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟发文解读称，7月国内市场竞争秩序持续优化带动相关行业价格降 幅收窄。全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，煤炭、钢材、光伏、水泥和锂电等行业市场竞争秩序持续优 化。 启铼研究院首席经济学家潘向东表示，7月PPI环比降幅收窄，主要影响因素是一系列"反内卷"政策推动 了周期性行业的产品价格回升，这一点在此前煤炭、钢材、水泥等产品的期货价格走势中已有所体现。 接下来，"反内卷"政策预计会继续推进，但相关行业产品价格后续的波动幅度可能不会像7月这么大， 更多还是受市场供需影响。 张林同时提醒，"反内卷"政策可能更利好头部企业。在落后产能和尾部产能退出过程中，市场会经历产 能出清的阵痛，这些承担政策调 ...