Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the macroeconomic perspective on exchange rates, particularly focusing on the US dollar, euro, and Chinese yuan [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Divergent Views on US Dollar**: There is a split within the US government regarding the dollar's strength. White House advisors advocate for a weaker dollar to enhance trade, while the Treasury Secretary emphasizes a strong dollar to attract capital [2][4][9]. 2. **Challenges in Exchange Rate Prediction**: Predicting exchange rates is complex due to multiple influencing factors. Even authoritative bodies like the IMF struggle to provide accurate forecasts [2][5][10][11]. 3. **Impact of Capital Flows**: Recent trends show that capital flows significantly influence exchange rates, with foreign exchange trading volumes far exceeding international trade volumes [2][8][14]. 4. **US Trade Deficit and Dollar Stability**: Despite a long-term trade deficit, the influx of foreign investment has prevented systemic depreciation of the dollar [2][15]. 5. **Foreign Investment in US Assets**: In 2023-2024, foreign investments accounted for 70% of net purchases in US equities, supporting the dollar despite high fiscal and trade deficits [2][15]. 6. **Potential for Yuan Strengthening**: The accumulation of $1.7 trillion in unconverted funds by Chinese exporters may lead to a stronger yuan, especially in the context of US debt monetization [2][17]. 7. **Market Reactions to Dollar Depreciation**: A weaker dollar is expected to benefit A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, enhancing risk appetite and liquidity in these markets [2][19]. 8. **Long-term Outlook for Global Markets**: The expectation of increased fiscal spending in the US and Europe may boost global demand and investment, positively impacting stock markets and commodities [2][19]. Additional Important Content 1. **Complex Interactions Among Currencies**: The interplay between major currencies is intricate, with recent trends showing the yuan's rise, the dollar's rebound, and the euro's slight weakening [3][7]. 2. **The Role of Theoretical Perspectives**: Different economic theories (e.g., classical vs. Keynesian) provide varying insights into the factors influencing exchange rates, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach [10][11]. 3. **Current Trends in Currency Behavior**: The yuan's recent appreciation against the dollar is not indicative of a clear upward trend, as market dynamics remain complex and influenced by various factors [22][23]. 4. **Implications for Exports**: The yuan's appreciation against the dollar has a limited negative impact on overall exports, supported by adjustments in a basket of currencies [20][23]. 5. **Future of US Debt and Monetary Policy**: The US may adopt measures to manage increasing debt levels, potentially leading to a sustained pressure on the dollar in the medium to long term [18][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the currency markets and their implications for various stakeholders.

7月24日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对 人民币7.1385元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1414元调升29个基点。人民币对美元中间价连续三个交易日 升值，续创2024年11月以来高点。 连续几日升值后，人民币汇率创阶段性升值高点。7月24日，人民币中间价连续第三个交易日升值，单 日调升29基点报7.1385，在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中同步走高，一度收复7.15关口，三大 人民币汇率报价均创下2024年11月以来升值高点。对于下阶段人民币汇率表现，有分析人士指出，在经 济基本面形成有效支撑、稳汇率工具会适时出手的前景下，人民币汇率韧性将会延续。 人民币汇率创阶段高点 连平指出，当前人民币处于升值阶段，我国降息存在一定的窗口期。建议货币政策持续释放人民币汇率 稳定的预期，运用工具箱内的各种工具，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。加快步伐发展 离岸人民币市场和在岸人民币离岸金融体系，在保持人民币汇率基本稳定的同时，稳慎推进人民币国际 化。 在王青看来，中美经贸对话磋商进展、美元走势以及国内宏观政策的节奏和力度，都会影响人民币汇 率，而未来国内宏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 20th anniversary of the RMB exchange rate reform, highlighting the shift from a fixed exchange rate to a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, referencing a basket of currencies [1][3]. Exchange Rate Reform - The RMB exchange rate reform, known as "7·21," was implemented on July 21, 2005, transitioning from a single peg to the US dollar to a more flexible system [1]. - Since the reform, the People's Bank of China has gradually increased the daily fluctuation range of foreign exchange trading prices and reduced intervention in the exchange rate, enhancing the market's role in the formation of the exchange rate [1]. RMB Exchange Rate Trends - A report by the China Financial Forty Forum (CF40) analyzes the RMB exchange rate's fundamentals, valuation, and potential in the context of current foreign exchange management policies and the internationalization strategy of the RMB [3]. - From 2005 to early 2022, the RMB's real effective exchange rate appreciated nearly 60%, aligning with the faster productivity growth of China's trading partners [3]. - However, since 2022, despite rapid industrial upgrades and increasing export competitiveness, the RMB's real effective exchange rate has depreciated by over 15% [3][6]. Determinants of RMB Exchange Rate - The determinants of the RMB exchange rate include external forces (global financial market risk appetite and the US dollar index), domestic market forces (improvements in economic expectations), and domestic policy influences [4][5]. - The correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index is significant but lower than that of developed countries' currencies [4]. Domestic Policy Impact - Since 2017, China's foreign exchange reserves have stabilized, indicating a reduced intervention by monetary authorities in managing the RMB exchange rate [5]. - The alignment of the RMB's central parity and spot exchange rate from 2017 to 2022 suggests a move towards a more flexible floating exchange rate system [5]. Demand Insufficiency - Demand insufficiency is identified as the primary reason for the RMB's continued depreciation since 2022, leading to low price levels and asset valuation [6]. - The low inflation and weak asset price expectations resulting from demand insufficiency reflect a market failure, causing an undervaluation of the RMB's real exchange rate [6]. Recommendations for Exchange Rate Management - To address the current situation, it is suggested to establish a wide fluctuation range for the RMB against the US dollar to prevent excessive distortion of the exchange rate [7]. - The implementation of this intervention should be firm, with strict penalties for actions that breach set limits, ensuring that market participants do not easily challenge the established boundaries [7].

Summary of Conference Call on Chinese Exports and US Tariffs Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the impact of rising US tariffs on Chinese exports and the potential rerouting of trade to other markets, particularly in the context of ongoing trade frictions between the US and China [1][2][3]. Key Points 1. **Resilience of Chinese Exports**: Despite an increase in the US effective tariff rate from approximately 10% to around 40%, Chinese exports have shown resilience, with overall exports up 6% year-on-year as of May and June 2025. This resilience is attributed to trade rerouting to other countries, particularly ASEAN markets [1][6][7]. 2. **Trade Rerouting Dynamics**: The pattern of Chinese exports indicates a 'see-saw' effect, where a decline in US-bound exports corresponds with a significant rise in exports to other markets. This suggests that while exports to the US have returned to 2019 nominal levels, overall export volumes remain robust [2][10][11]. 3. **Overcapacity Issues**: China's overcapacity remains a critical concern, with estimates indicating that Chinese production capacity exceeds global demand in several sectors: 149% for solar modules, 126% for lithium batteries, 113% for construction machinery, 108% for air conditioners, and 105% for electric vehicles as of 2024. This overcapacity is deeply rooted in China's fiscal and political systems, making it challenging to address quickly [15][16][18]. 4. **Impact on Global Economies**: The rerouting of Chinese exports is expected to create headwinds for manufacturing activities in other economies, particularly in Europe, and may lead to lower goods inflation outside the US. Each 1 percentage point increase in imports from China as a share of goods consumption is estimated to lower goods inflation by approximately 80 basis points [3][6][21]. 5. **Vulnerability of Other Economies**: Vietnam is identified as the most vulnerable to potential US tariffs on transshipment of goods from China, with about one-third of its total imports coming from China. Other countries like the Philippines, Korea, and Taiwan also face significant exposure to transshipment risks [4][19]. 6. **Concerns Over Anti-Dumping Actions**: Chinese companies are increasingly worried about the acceleration of anti-dumping actions in Europe, particularly in the UK. The emphasis on service and aftermarket support in Europe poses challenges for Chinese firms, especially in sectors like batteries and electrical equipment [5][34]. Additional Insights - **Current Account Surplus**: The ongoing trade rerouting is likely to contribute to a continued upside surprise in China's current account surplus, which is a key factor supporting a constructive outlook on the RMB in the medium term [3][18]. - **Sector-Specific Growth**: Certain sectors, particularly capital goods, have outpaced overall export growth, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics and market opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [32][34]. - **Long-Term Outlook**: While immediate trade rerouting may provide temporary relief, the long-term sustainability of this strategy remains uncertain, with potential payback effects anticipated in the coming months [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the state of Chinese exports amid rising US tariffs and the broader implications for global trade dynamics.

在美元指数年内大幅波动、跌逾10%的背景下，人民币对美元汇率在双向浮动中彰显韧性，呈现"稳中 偏强"格局，截至7月23日，较年初升值近2%，并保持基本稳定。分析人士普遍认为，人民币汇率的稳 健表现是内外因素交织作用的结果，其中内生动力是根本。在经济基本面形成有效支撑、稳汇率工具将 适时出手的前景下，人民币汇率的韧性将会延续。（上证报） ...

在岸人民币兑美元（CNY）北京时间03:00收报7.1547元，较周二夜盘收盘涨148点。成交量546.00亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the RMB against the USD is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with internal dynamics being fundamental, leading to a "stable yet strong" trend in the RMB exchange rate [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - The RMB has appreciated nearly 2% against the USD since the beginning of the year, maintaining stability despite significant fluctuations in the USD index, which has dropped over 10% [1]. - The RMB/USD exchange rate has shown a pattern of "low volatility and resilience," with fluctuations remaining significantly lower than those of the Euro, Yen, and most emerging market currencies [2]. Group 2: Internal Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - Key internal factors contributing to the RMB's stability include a robust domestic economic foundation, effective policy measures, and flexible central bank operations [2]. - The implementation of growth-stabilizing policies and various export strategies have provided intrinsic support for the RMB exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The convergence of onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates, along with the central parity rate, indicates a significant reduction in price differentials, contributing to lower volatility [3]. - Analysts believe that the internal momentum supporting the RMB's stability is continuously accumulating, with expectations of ongoing positive policy measures in the second half of the year [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD reflects a stable economic environment and effective monetary policies, with the RMB maintaining a reasonable equilibrium level despite external pressures [1][4][5]. Exchange Rate Trends - The onshore RMB to USD exchange rate has rebounded, recovering the 7.2 mark, with a year-to-date appreciation of 1.9% as of mid-2023 [1][4]. - As of July 23, the central parity rate was set at 7.1414 RMB per USD, marking a 46 basis point increase from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB was trading around 7.15890, up over 1100 basis points from the previous day [1]. Economic Factors Influencing RMB - Domestic economic recovery is evident, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2023 [5]. - Market expectations suggest a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US [5]. - The balance of international payments remains stable, with RMB assets retaining attractiveness for cross-border capital flows [5]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - The foreign exchange market is characterized by rational trading behavior, with no significant unilateral expectations for RMB appreciation or depreciation [1][4]. - Analysts predict that the RMB will stabilize at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of 2023, supported by easing global tariff risks and a recovery in capital markets [5][6]. Global Currency Trends - The dollar index has weakened significantly, dropping 10.8% in the first half of 2023, the worst performance since 1973, leading to a shift in global asset allocation away from USD [2][9]. - The IMF reports a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves to 57.7%, with increasing interest in gold, euros, and RMB as alternative safe-haven assets [2][9]. RMB as a Reserve Currency - The RMB's status as a reserve currency is on the rise, with 30% of central banks planning to increase their RMB reserves over the next decade [9][10]. - The RMB has become the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally, reflecting its growing international acceptance [10]. Future Outlook - The RMB's internationalization is expected to continue, with a projected increase in its share of global reserves from the current level to 6% over the next decade [9][10]. - The ongoing diversification of currency reserves among central banks indicates a long-term trend towards increased RMB allocation, particularly in emerging markets [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar indicates a positive trend in the currency's valuation, with the onshore and offshore RMB both recovering above the 7.2 mark, reflecting an appreciation since the beginning of the year [1][4]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 23, the central parity rate of RMB against USD was set at 7.1414, an increase of 46 basis points from the previous trading day, marking the highest level since November 5, 2024 [1]. - On the same day, the onshore RMB was reported at 7.1605, up 151 basis points, while the offshore RMB hovered around 7.15890, rising over 1100 basis points [1]. Market Stability and Expectations - In the first half of the year, the RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD, maintaining a stable range between 7.15 and 7.35, which has helped stabilize the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [4]. - The foreign exchange market has shown stable expectations, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation anticipated for the RMB [4]. Economic Factors Influencing RMB - The RMB's stability is supported by several factors: domestic economic recovery, narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, balanced international payments, and improved resilience in the foreign exchange market [5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that it does not seek to gain international competitive advantage through currency depreciation, maintaining a clear stance on the importance of market-driven exchange rate formation [5]. Capital Inflows and Foreign Investment - The capital market is witnessing a resurgence, with significant foreign capital inflows into the Chinese market, particularly through the Stock Connect program, which has seen transaction volumes exceed previous levels [7]. - Foreign investors are expected to continue increasing their allocation to RMB-denominated assets, supported by China's economic fundamentals and the demand for diversified global asset allocation [7]. Global Currency Trends - The US dollar's dominance is declining, with a significant drop in its share of global foreign exchange reserves, while the RMB is increasingly viewed as a desirable reserve asset by central banks [9]. - A report indicates that 30% of central banks plan to increase their RMB reserves over the next decade, suggesting a potential doubling of the RMB's share in global reserves to 6% [9]. Conclusion on RMB's International Position - The RMB has steadily risen in international status, becoming the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [10]. - Despite the challenges faced by the RMB, including limited capacity for currency export due to China's trade surplus, the trend towards a multipolar currency system is evident, with the RMB gaining traction as a viable alternative to the US dollar [10].

新华财经北京7月23日电 上半年，非银行部门跨境收支合计7.6万亿美元，创历史同期新高；银行结售汇 合计2.3万亿美元，为历史同期次高；外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，扭转了过去两年总体净减 持态势...... "总的来看，上半年我国外汇市场有力有效应对外部冲击风险；展现出较强的韧性和活力，表现好于市 场预期。"国家外汇管理局副局长李斌说。 往后看，受访人士预计，人民币汇率的扰动和支撑因素相对均衡，年内或呈现震荡偏强运行，加之国际 收支平衡也有望延续"一顺一逆"、整体平衡格局，下半年外汇市场总体将继续稳定运行。 ——外汇市场表现超预期跨境资金持续净流入 展望后续，受访人士预计，外部环境波动对我国出口的影响或在下半年集中显现，银行代客外币收支或 仍有一定幅度顺差。不过稳汇率仍是宏观政策的主要目标之一，加之国际收支也有望延续平衡格局，下 半年外汇市场总体将保持稳定状态。 ——人民币汇率保持稳定人民币资产强势吸金 今年以来，外部环境更趋复杂多变，国际金融市场波动加大。我国加快实施更加积极有为的宏观政策， 外汇市场持续平稳运行。 如从总量的角度看，涉外收支规模稳步增加。上半年，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支 ...