印尼表示，一旦所有谈判完成，包括提出的豁免条款，19%的美国关税将生效。 ...

东方金诚期货：预计金价将维持高位震荡格局 东方金诚期货在周报中称，美联储独立性扰动市场情绪，上周金价在震荡中小幅回调。本周金价料将延 续高位震荡。一方面，随着美国贸易谈判期限临近，而美国与欧盟等重要贸易伙伴国的谈判前景仍不明 朗，避险情绪回温将对金价构成支撑。但另一方面，美国6月CPI印证关税影响开始显现，未来关税影 响还将进一步扩大，通胀风险将打压美联储年内降息预期，令金价承压。整体上看，预计本周金价将维 持高位震荡格局。 信达期货研报指出，美元走软与贸易风险持续仍为金价提供弹性支撑。但从目前整体市场表现来看，投 资者对政策层面扰动的敏感度已明显减弱，避险驱动带来的涨幅不及前期，显示出当前黄金并无强势单 一推动力，整体驱动多元化。同时，美联储内部对货币政策前景存在分歧，降息路径不确定性未解，政 策连贯性受到政治因素干扰，金融属性仍构成扰动但难以主导走势。中长期来看，美国财政赤字、信用 风险与全球债务问题仍是金价的重要支撑基础，黄金的货币属性逻辑持续稳固。策略上，建议维持日内 逢低做多的滚动操作思路，继续关注每轮调整后的多头布局机会。 方正中期期货策略日报观点认为，预计未来市场对美联储独立性的担忧仍将反复发酵 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心继续下移，其中 WTI 新换 9 月合约收盘下跌 0.06 美 | | | | 元至 65.25 美元/桶，跌幅 0.09%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘下跌 0.08 | | | | 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 0.12%。SC2509 以 506 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 2.1 元/桶，涨幅为 0.42%。美国能源部长表示将考虑制裁俄罗 | | | | 斯石油以结束俄乌冲突。美国总统特朗普在早些时候表示，如果 | | | | 莫斯科不同意与乌克兰达成一项重要的和平协议，华盛顿可能会 | | | | 对俄罗斯石油的买家征收 100%的关税，并实施其他制裁措施。这 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 对俄罗斯无疑是巨大的压力，但目前特朗普政府尚未对俄罗斯实 | | | | 施重大石油制裁。关税方面，最新美国总统特朗普表示，将对世 | 偏弱 | | | 界其他大部分国家征收 15%至 50%的简单关税。EIA 报告，截至 ...

泰国将于周四与美方官员再举行会谈，该东南亚国家寻求在8月1日最后期限前降低特朗普政府威胁要对 其出口商品征收的36%关税。泰国财长披猜周四表示，泰方官员将"回应美方关切"。泰国正在努力争取 与邻国相比具有竞争力的关税税率。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, trading is highly challenging. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position in the 2510 contract below 1300 and consider taking profits if the market continues to decline. A light short position in the EC2512 contract is also suggested. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3]. - Due to the volatile international situation, the arbitrage strategy is mainly based on positive spreads, but it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [3]. 3. Key Points from Relevant Contents Shipping Market Conditions - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% from the previous period [1]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% from the previous period [1]. - The latest quotes from liner companies for August show a mixed trend, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood regarding future freight rates. The 2510 contract has seen a reduction in positions and a downward trend in a wide - range volatile market [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Data - The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate adjustments, and the spot market has tested the waters with a slight price increase [2]. - In June, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 50, and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1]. - On July 22, the Yemeni Houthi rebels launched a missile at Israel's Ben - Gurion Airport. On July 21, the Israeli military attacked Houthi military facilities in the port of Hodeidah, and the Houthi rebels responded with drone attacks [4]. - On July 23, it was reported that high - level officials from the US, Israel, and Syria were expected to hold talks on July 24 to discuss security arrangements in southern Syria [4]. Trading Data - On July 23, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 2.72, down 2.72% with a trading volume of 59,500 lots and an open interest of 50,100 lots, a decrease of 1603 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin to 28%, and the daily opening limit to 100 lots [3].

Group 1 - The core of the news revolves around a "massive" trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, announced by President Trump, which includes a 15% tariff rate and a $550 billion investment commitment from Japan [1][2] - There are inconsistencies in the details of the agreement, particularly regarding the tariff rates and the total investment amount, leading to confusion among analysts and officials [1][2] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce suggested that the agreement's terms were influenced by innovative financing mechanisms offered by Japan, which allowed for the 15% tariff rate on automotive exports [2][3] Group 2 - The investment amount mentioned by Trump in his social media post is $550 billion, which is $50 billion higher than the modified figure on the card presented during negotiations [2] - Analysts express skepticism about the investment commitment, noting that Japanese officials view the $550 billion as a ceiling that may include government loan guarantees [3] - There are concerns that Japan may delay investments that do not align with its economic interests, as they feel pressured into making this commitment [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend, with its performance strengthening compared to the previous period. The impact of trade negotiations and tariffs was temporarily alleviated. The market was focusing on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data was resilient, and the Fed's decision - making independence led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies were introduced to promote stable growth in key industrial sectors, and major infrastructure projects were launched, which drove the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend, but the sustainability was average. The non - ferrous metals market showed an oscillatory and strengthening trend. Future operations should be cautiously bullish in the short - term, but avoid over - chasing the rise [11][12]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties had different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper was expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, with inventory depletion likely to continue; zinc was in a state of increasing supply and weak demand, with an oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short - term and a bearish outlook in the medium - term; aluminum and its related products in the industry had different trends in cost, supply, and demand, and corresponding investment strategies were recommended [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector rebounded. Trade and tariff impacts were temporarily alleviated. The market focused on interest - rate cut expectations. China's policies promoted industrial growth, driving the non - ferrous metals sector. The sustainability of the upward trend was limited. Future operations should be short - term cautiously bullish, and attention should be paid to the resonance between supply - demand fundamentals and the macro - environment [11][12]. - **Variety - Specific Analysis** - **Copper**: Social inventory decreased, supply was expected to decline, and demand was expected to increase. It was expected to stop falling and rebound, with support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and resistance at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. The strategy was to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: Supply increased, demand was weak, but it was oscillatory and strengthening in the short - term. Support was at 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, resistance was at 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton. Short - term long positions were recommended, and short positions were considered in the medium - term [4][14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: In the aluminum industry chain, different products had different trends in cost, supply, and demand. For example, for aluminum, 09 contract had resistance at 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton and support at 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton; for alumina, 09 contract had resistance at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton and support at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton. Strategies such as reducing long positions and buying out - of - the - money put options were recommended [5][16]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals were weak in both supply and demand. It was recommended to wait and see, reduce long positions, with resistance at 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton and support at 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money put options was considered [6]. - **Lead**: It followed the sector to rebound and then consolidated. Supply was expected to increase, and demand needed to be further restored. Support was at 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, resistance was at 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. Selling out - of - the - money put options on dips was recommended [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel had an overall oversupply situation, with short - term bullish and medium - term bearish trends. Stainless steel had a situation of weak supply and demand, with support at 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton and resistance at 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures were provided. For example, copper closed at 79590 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; zinc closed at 22975 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector was presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, zinc, etc [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals were provided, such as the Yangtze River spot price of copper was 79930 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the Yangtze River spot average price of 0 zinc was 22830 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [21][23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][28][30][35][41][44][49][56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including the comparison of domestic and foreign price ratios, basis differences, and price differences between different contract months of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [57][61][62][66][69][71]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to options of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [75][78][81].

韩联社：韩国政府为推进与美国的关税谈判，已协调国内企业制定超过1000亿美元的对美投资计划，并即将向美方正式提案。据悉目前仅汇总了企业现有投资规划，未来仍有上调空间。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普称将对日本商品征收15%关税，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元。美国将获得90%的利润。 日本将向其国家开放贸易，包括轿车、卡车、大米等农产品以及其他东西。 ...

【最新伦敦金行情解析】 在昨晚的美盘时段，一则关于欧美关税协议接近达成的消息重磅出炉，瞬间引发市场避险情绪大幅降 温。受此影响，黄金价格迅速跳水式下跌，且在美盘期间反弹乏力。最终，黄金日线以一根醒目的大阴 线收官，呈现出典型的"乌云盖顶"形态。 从1小时级别来看，黄金的均线已自高位开始拐头向下，在消息面的冲击下，多头动能明显受挫。与此 同时，黄金短线走势已然构筑出头肩顶结构。倘若后续反弹未能强势突破3400关口，则意味着右肩成 型，短期顶部结构——头肩顶将正式确立，届时空头力量将全面爆发，开启下行趋势。 【要闻速递】 美日达成贸易协议，美方对日本实施的对等关税为15%，同时欧美贸易谈判进展顺利，大多数产品税率 或为15%，贸易协议进展给推升市场风险偏好，贵金属小幅回落。 不过，值得注意的是，欧盟仍在准备一项报复性关税方案，以防在8月1日前无法达成协议，欧美贸易谈 判风险仍存。 摘要今日周四（7月24日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3383.90美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报 3386.65美元/盎司，跌幅0.01%，最高上探3393.09美元/盎司，最低触及3383.90美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's tariffs on American consumers, highlighting that while the administration claims these tariffs support domestic industries, they may actually harm consumers through increased prices, reduced choices, and lower quality products [1][4][5]. Group 1: Impact on Consumer Choices - Tariffs have led to a reduction in the variety of products available to American consumers, forcing them to settle for less preferred domestic brands due to fewer imported options [4]. - The imposition of tariffs has resulted in a lack of alternatives for essential goods, such as coffee, which is primarily imported and faces significant tariff threats, potentially leading to a decrease in domestic consumption [4]. Group 2: Quality and Cost Implications - The quality of products may decline as manufacturers are compelled to source from less optimal suppliers due to tariffs, resulting in consumers paying the same price for inferior goods [4]. - The financial burden of tariffs disproportionately affects low-income households, which spend a larger portion of their income on essential goods that are subject to higher tariffs compared to luxury items [5]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - Over time, the negative effects of tariffs manifest as fewer choices, lower quality, and increased costs for consumers, ultimately harming ordinary American families the most [5].