本文源自：金融界AI电报 周三纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.61%，报98.179点，日内交投区间为98.837-98.128点，日内至北京时间 17:00持续高位震荡，随后持续震荡下行，02:44刷新日低。彭博美元指数跌0.45%，报1204.33点，日内 交投区间为1210.24-1203.69点。 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The US dollar index strengthened to the upper edge of 100 during the week but quickly depreciated below 99 after the release of non - farm payroll data on Friday. The subsequent outlook suggests a further decline in the US dollar index, and the view of a downward trend in the US dollar is maintained for the year [2]. - The reasons for the mid - week strengthening of the US dollar include the agreement between the US and major trading partners, the closing of crowded short - dollar positions before events, and better - than - expected US Q2 GDP and ADP employment data as well as a hawkish Fed in July [2]. - The weak non - farm payroll data on Friday reversed the logic of the strengthening US dollar. The 3 - month average non - farm payrolls have been slowing since February 2025, and only 35,000 jobs were added as of July [2]. - The logic supporting the downward trend of the US dollar this year includes the slowdown of the US economy and further Fed rate cuts, the recovery of other economies and rising investment returns, and the room for the increase of foreign exchange hedging ratio [2]. Group 2: Other Observations - The spread between US and German yields oscillated downward while the US dollar index generally trended upward [4]. - The US Citigroup economic surprise index declined [5]. - The CFTC net position shows that the net short position of the US dollar has decreased [10]. - The euro swap basis indicates that the cross - border liquidity pressure of the US dollar is limited [12]. - Based on the 30 - 10Y US Treasury yield spread and 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits are not the main contradiction affecting the US dollar [14][17]. - The US dollar index rebounded above the 9 - day moving average, and the RSI indicator is approaching overbought [19]. - The gold - to - copper ratio declined and then rose again on August 1st. Crude oil prices climbed and then fell, and copper prices declined [20].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday, indicating a correction from previous declines, but investors should remain cautious about weak demand impacting the market [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Price Movement - Copper prices on LME and COMEX are stabilizing, with LME prices unlikely to exceed COMEX prices in the short term [1] - The recent decline in COMEX copper has led to an oversold condition, which may slightly boost valuations in the other two copper markets [1] Demand Factors - Three bullish factors include: 1. Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries 2. Employment data causing a decline in the US dollar index 3. Clear support levels for copper prices [1] - Three bearish factors include: 1. Fluctuations in tariff policies 2. Tariff policies leading to a decrease in global demand 3. Adjustments in US copper tariff policies resulting in extremely high COMEX inventories [1]

一、基本面 1、美联储降息预期升温 6月美国就业数据疲软（增长低于预期且前两月数据下修），引发经济放缓担忧，市场对降息预期增强。据芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch工具，9月降息概率 达91%，预计至2026年10月累计降息130个基点；高盛预测9月起可能连续三次降息（每次25个基点，若就业恶化或降50个基点）。美元指数反弹乏力（周二 收于98.76），削弱其价值储藏功能，黄金作为替代避险资产吸引力上升。 黄金周二（8月5日）早盘小幅上涨3382附近受阻开始震荡下跌，欧盘最低跌至3350/3349附近后企稳上涨，美盘强势上涨，最高上涨3390附近，尾盘小幅下 探3377后保持其上方震荡，日线收出一根带有上下影线的阳线。 特朗普计划更换美联储理事库格勒的临时接替人选，并考虑四名候选人接替主席鲍威尔（排除财政部长贝森特），市场预期新任官员可能倾向鸽派政策。 鸽派倾向或压低美元和美债收益率，长期利好金价；同时，特朗普干预经济数据（如更换劳工统计局局长）增加市场波动，进一步强化黄金避险需求。 4、今日关注 2、特朗普政府关税政策影响 正面效果：6月美国贸易逆差收窄16%至602亿美元（两年新低），对华逆差降至95亿美元 ...

（文章来源：新华社） 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1574美元，高于前一交易日的1.1566美元；1英镑兑换1.3295美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3276美元。1美元兑换147.61日元，高于前一交易日的146.95日元；1美元兑换0.8074瑞 士法郎，低于前一交易日的0.8082瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3784加元，与前一交易日持平；1美元兑换 9.6722瑞典克朗，高于前一交易日的9.6704瑞典克朗。 美元指数5日微跌。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天在汇市尾市收于98.782，低于前一交易日 的98.786。 ...

衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天在汇市尾市收于98.782，低于前一交易日的98.786。 （文章来源：新华社） 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1574美元，高于前一交易日的1.1566美元；1英镑兑换1.3295美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3276美元。 新华社纽约8月5日电美元指数5日微跌。 1美元兑换147.61日元，高于前一交易日的146.95日元；1美元兑换0.8074瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8082瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3784加元，与前一交易日持平；1美元兑换9.6722瑞典克朗，高于前一交 易日的9.6704瑞典克朗。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, but there are significant internal divisions regarding future rate cuts [1] - The absence of Fed Governor Kugler during the meeting raised concerns about the internal disagreements within the Fed, especially after his resignation announcement [1] - The voting results showed that out of 11 committee members, 9 voted to keep rates unchanged, indicating a majority support for the current stance [1] Group 2 - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that the Fed may need to cut rates more than twice if the labor market weakens significantly [1] - President Trump expressed satisfaction with the Fed's decision, as a potential rate cut could align with his goal of lower interest rates, despite concerns about its impact on his approval ratings [2] - The dollar index is currently in a long-term bearish trend but is in a bottoming phase, with resistance at the 100-point level [4]

受美元指数上周五大跌影响，人民币对美元汇率8月4日迎来大涨。 8月4日，人民币对美元即期汇率大涨超300点，16时30分收于7.1766，较上一交易日上涨340个基点， 这一升幅创下5月6日以来的最大值。 中国外汇交易中心的数据显示， 8月4日人民币汇率对美元中间价报7.1395，相较前一交易日中间价大幅升值101个基点， 这一升幅创下2025年1月21日以 来最大值。8月5日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1366元。 国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌表示，今年上半年，人民币兑美元汇率升值1.9%，上半年人民币兑美元汇率在7.15—7.35之间双向浮动，既在合 理均衡水平上保持了基本稳定，也发挥了调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器的作用。 中国人民银行在8月1日召开的2025年下半年工作会议暨常态长效推动中央巡视整改工作推进会上部署下半年各项重点工作时明确， 要保持汇率弹性，强 化预期引导，防范汇率超调风险。进一步提升人民币融资货币功能，优化本外币一体化资金池和境内企业境外上市管理政策。发展人民币离岸市场，推动 形成稳定的、期限齐全的流动性供给渠道。 在同日举行的2025年下半年外汇管理 ...

Group 1: Dollar Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in the dollar index, which rose to 100 but then fell to 98.74 due to weak U.S. economic data, indicate ongoing volatility in the currency market [1] - Despite a temporary rebound, the dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of 8.5% this year, driven by weakening U.S. economic fundamentals and increasing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The mixed performance of U.S. economic data, particularly the significantly weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls for July, has raised concerns about a slowing economy, contributing to the dollar's decline [2][3] Group 2: Renminbi Trends - The renminbi's central parity against the dollar has shown a trend of appreciation, with the latest rate at 7.1366, marking a high point since November 2024 [1] - The People's Bank of China has been actively adjusting the central parity to stabilize the renminbi, reflecting a strong policy intent to guide exchange rate stability [1][5] - The renminbi's appreciation has been less pronounced compared to other major currencies, suggesting potential for a catch-up rally if the dollar continues to weaken [5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - There is an increasing willingness among foreign investors to hold renminbi-denominated assets, as indicated by a net inflow into Hong Kong and ADR markets, signaling a shift in asset allocation strategies [6] - The Chinese government's commitment to maintaining stable exchange rates and economic growth is expected to support the renminbi's value in the near term [6] - The outlook for the renminbi remains influenced by the dollar's trajectory, U.S.-China tariff negotiations, and domestic economic policies aimed at growth stabilization [6][7]

每经AI快讯，8月5日，美元指数站上99，日内涨0.39%。 ...