与此同时，美元指数震荡，截至9时30分，报97.9545。 中金公司研报称，展望10月，驱动人民币汇率的重要因素或是美元走向及稳汇率政策方向，短期内人民 币升值存在不确定性。往年底看，预计人民币汇率升值的确定性依然较高。随着美联储的进一步降息， 短端美元利率的下行有望推动美元表现偏弱，另一方面，随着人民币汇率年末季节性的出现，人民币或 仍有望升破7.10并迈向7.0。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）9月30日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘上涨，报 7.1200，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1204。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.1256。 同日，人民币对美元中间价报7.1055，上调34个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the USD experienced a significant rise, reaching a peak of 7.1182, marking the first time since November 6, 2024, that it surpassed 7.12, driven by various supportive factors including stable exchange rate policies and foreign capital inflow [1][2][4]. Group 1 - On August 28, the offshore RMB surged over 340 points during the day, with a maximum increase of 314 points, indicating strong market performance [1][2]. - As of August 29, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.12045, reflecting a gain of 320 points compared to the previous New York close, with trading occurring between 7.1551 and 7.1182 [4]. - The FTSE China A50 index futures and Hang Seng index futures showed upward trends, increasing approximately 0.32% and 0.79% respectively [4]. Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in the RMB is supported by a balanced exchange rate policy, strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4][5]. - It is anticipated that the RMB settlement scale may expand around the time of the expected Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a potential return to the "6" level for the RMB if the central bank maintains a market-based adjustment policy [5]. - Economic factors such as the implementation of domestic growth policies and progress in US-China trade negotiations are critical for the RMB's resilience, with potential for greater support if a mutually beneficial outcome is reached in the fourth quarter [5].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surged, reaching a high of 7.1155, marking the first time it has surpassed 7.12 since November 6, 2024, and creating a new high in nearly 10 months [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly, with a rise of 53 basis points from the opening price and over 130 basis points from the highest point [1] - The onshore RMB also saw an increase, with a minimum of 7.1262, up 4 basis points from the opening price of 7.1302 [1] - The RMB central parity rate was adjusted up by 33 points to 7.1030, the highest since November 6, 2024 [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Factors supporting the RMB exchange rate include a balanced exchange rate policy, strong performance in the domestic equity market attracting foreign capital, and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - The market's focus has shifted towards domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations, enhancing short-term macro upward drivers and significantly boosting domestic risk appetite [1] - The chief macro analyst from Dongfang Jincheng noted that the central parity rate's adjustment has been notably strong, with the deviation from the onshore market price increasing from 0 to 400-500 basis points, aimed at guiding the RMB to appreciate moderately [2]

Group 1: Dollar Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in the dollar index, which rose to 100 but then fell to 98.74 due to weak U.S. economic data, indicate ongoing volatility in the currency market [1] - Despite a temporary rebound, the dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of 8.5% this year, driven by weakening U.S. economic fundamentals and increasing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The mixed performance of U.S. economic data, particularly the significantly weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls for July, has raised concerns about a slowing economy, contributing to the dollar's decline [2][3] Group 2: Renminbi Trends - The renminbi's central parity against the dollar has shown a trend of appreciation, with the latest rate at 7.1366, marking a high point since November 2024 [1] - The People's Bank of China has been actively adjusting the central parity to stabilize the renminbi, reflecting a strong policy intent to guide exchange rate stability [1][5] - The renminbi's appreciation has been less pronounced compared to other major currencies, suggesting potential for a catch-up rally if the dollar continues to weaken [5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - There is an increasing willingness among foreign investors to hold renminbi-denominated assets, as indicated by a net inflow into Hong Kong and ADR markets, signaling a shift in asset allocation strategies [6] - The Chinese government's commitment to maintaining stable exchange rates and economic growth is expected to support the renminbi's value in the near term [6] - The outlook for the renminbi remains influenced by the dollar's trajectory, U.S.-China tariff negotiations, and domestic economic policies aimed at growth stabilization [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown characteristics of "low volatility + resilience" since June, achieving a basic "triple price unity" [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Yuan Resilience - The weakening trend of the US dollar index has contributed to the resilience of the yuan [1] - Domestic fundamentals and policy initiatives have provided support for the yuan [1] - The central bank's flexible operations to stabilize the exchange rate have played a crucial role [1] - The release of demand for foreign exchange settlement from clients has also bolstered the yuan's resilience [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The existing US tariffs on China will continue to exert pressure on exports, which remains a concern [1] - The key factors for the yuan's exchange rate will be the effectiveness of domestic consumption policies and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations after a potential easing of tariffs [1] - With the central bank's flexible exchange rate stabilization policies, the yuan is expected to maintain a low volatility state in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The external pressure on the RMB exchange rate is currently manageable due to the decline in the US dollar index, the strong implementation of the central bank's stable exchange rate policy, and the good performance of domestic A-shares and other risk assets, suggesting a phase of narrow fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [1][4]. Group 1: External Pressure and Policy Response - The US dollar index has shown a volatile downward trend this year, primarily due to the slower-than-expected implementation of tariff policies following Trump's inauguration [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy report indicates a shift from "strengthening expectation guidance" to "stabilizing market expectations," emphasizing the importance of maintaining stable exchange rate targets [2]. - The central bank has issued a total of 1,200 billion yuan in offshore central bank bills this year, significantly higher than historical levels, which supports the stability of the RMB [2][3]. Group 2: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential risk of increased tariffs imposed by the US on China remains a major long-term risk factor for the RMB exchange rate, with the possibility of further escalation [3][4]. - There exists a discrepancy in expectations regarding the extent and pace of US tariffs on China, which may not meet market expectations, and there is potential for positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [3][4]. - The recent "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" released by the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission may help stabilize foreign direct investment in China, countering the risks posed by potential US tariffs [3].