2025年，是"十四五"规划收官之年，人民币汇率也迎来五年来最大涨幅，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率 分别收在6.9879、6.9697，均创2023年5月以来新高。 2025年，人民币汇率受到关税预期扰动、美元跌宕起伏以及内部环境向好等因素影响，从"7.30"附近开 局，到升破"7.00"收官，整体表现为"先弱后强"，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元分别累计上涨约4.27%、 4.93%。 步入2026年，美元走势及外部经贸环境仍是影响汇率的核心变量，综合来看内外部环境仍然有利，国际 货币体系重构的影响也有望持续，人民币汇率或延续双向波动、缓步升值的态势，但也不宜单边押注人 民币行情，企业和金融机构仍应坚持风险中性理念。 2025年人民币汇率明显回升 与美元走势相关性下降 "究其原因，是在美国政府系列政策导致美元信用松动之际，我国经济与金融市场的韧性有效改善了市 场信心，国际货币秩序持续重构，令人民币汇率在贸易不确定性提升的压力下逆势升值。"中金公司研 究部外汇研究首席分析师李刘阳说。 具体按趋势看，全年汇率走势大致可分两个阶段。 其一是年初至4月上旬，全球关税政策的风险上升，美国推出所谓"对等关税"令非美货币普遍走弱， ...

近日，人民币汇率持续走强，引发市场广泛关注。这轮人民币汇率升势并非偶然，是内外部 多重条件共同作用、形成合力的结果。 首先，美元指数走软为人民币汇率的潜在走强创造了较为友好的外部环境。 2025年12月，美 联储实施年内第三次降息，将联邦基金利率的目标区间降至3.50%—3.75%。此举进一步确认 了美联储货币政策由紧缩转向宽松的根本性周期转换。市场普遍预期，由于通胀压力缓解、 经济增长放缓，美联储在2026年将继续推进降息进程。受降息周期开启及美国与其他主要经 济体利差收窄等因素影响，年内美元指数累计下跌幅度接近10%。美元走弱为非美货币提供了 重要的被动升值空间，这是人民币得以走强的核心外部条件。 其次，来自实体经济的外汇供给为近期人民币汇率走强提供了短期驱动力。 根据国家外汇管 理局数据，2025年前11个月银行累计结汇额16.28万亿元，累计售汇额15.59万亿元，银行结 售汇已连续7个月实现顺差。时至年底，外汇净流入动能进一步释放：一方面，外贸企业在年 末财务结算和支付需求下，将持有的美元等外汇收入集中兑换为人民币；另一方面，在近期 人民币汇率走强的市场预期下，部分企业为锁定更优的汇兑收益，选择提前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Renminbi (RMB) against a basket of currencies indicates a robust upward trend, with all three major RMB indices reaching new highs since April 2025, reflecting the currency's strength against non-USD currencies and suggesting stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Index Performance - The CFETS RMB Index, BIS currency basket RMB Index, and SDR currency basket RMB Index have all shown significant increases, with the CFETS index rising by 0.48% since the end of October, marking a nearly seven-month high [2]. - The RMB's strength against multiple currencies, particularly the South Korean Won and New Zealand Dollar, has been notable, with appreciation exceeding 1% [2]. Group 2: RMB Against USD - The RMB's exchange rate against the USD has remained stable, fluctuating within a narrow range of 7.10 to 7.14, despite a strengthening USD index [4]. - Factors such as a recovering domestic capital market, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and stable foreign trade surplus are contributing to the RMB's resilience [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of maintaining RMB stability at a reasonable equilibrium level, with expectations for the RMB to continue a strong performance due to year-end settlement demands and a solid economic foundation [5]. - Analysts predict that the RMB will maintain a strong bias in the short term, with ongoing attention needed on USD trends and RMB middle rate adjustments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the USD, highlighting the potential for RMB appreciation towards the end of the year due to various economic factors [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - On September 30, the onshore RMB opened at 7.1200 against the USD, slightly up from the previous day's close of 7.1204 [1]. - The offshore RMB was reported at 7.1256 against the USD as of 9:30 AM on the same day [1]. - The central parity rate for RMB against the USD was set at 7.1055, an increase of 34 basis points [1]. Economic Factors - According to a report by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the key drivers for the RMB exchange rate in October will be the direction of the USD and the stability of exchange rate policies [1]. - There is uncertainty regarding short-term RMB appreciation, but the outlook for RMB appreciation remains strong towards the end of the year [1]. - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may weaken the USD, while seasonal factors could lead the RMB to potentially break below 7.10 and approach 7.0 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the USD experienced a significant rise, reaching a peak of 7.1182, marking the first time since November 6, 2024, that it surpassed 7.12, driven by various supportive factors including stable exchange rate policies and foreign capital inflow [1][2][4]. Group 1 - On August 28, the offshore RMB surged over 340 points during the day, with a maximum increase of 314 points, indicating strong market performance [1][2]. - As of August 29, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.12045, reflecting a gain of 320 points compared to the previous New York close, with trading occurring between 7.1551 and 7.1182 [4]. - The FTSE China A50 index futures and Hang Seng index futures showed upward trends, increasing approximately 0.32% and 0.79% respectively [4]. Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in the RMB is supported by a balanced exchange rate policy, strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4][5]. - It is anticipated that the RMB settlement scale may expand around the time of the expected Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a potential return to the "6" level for the RMB if the central bank maintains a market-based adjustment policy [5]. - Economic factors such as the implementation of domestic growth policies and progress in US-China trade negotiations are critical for the RMB's resilience, with potential for greater support if a mutually beneficial outcome is reached in the fourth quarter [5].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surged, reaching a high of 7.1155, marking the first time it has surpassed 7.12 since November 6, 2024, and creating a new high in nearly 10 months [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly, with a rise of 53 basis points from the opening price and over 130 basis points from the highest point [1] - The onshore RMB also saw an increase, with a minimum of 7.1262, up 4 basis points from the opening price of 7.1302 [1] - The RMB central parity rate was adjusted up by 33 points to 7.1030, the highest since November 6, 2024 [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Factors supporting the RMB exchange rate include a balanced exchange rate policy, strong performance in the domestic equity market attracting foreign capital, and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - The market's focus has shifted towards domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations, enhancing short-term macro upward drivers and significantly boosting domestic risk appetite [1] - The chief macro analyst from Dongfang Jincheng noted that the central parity rate's adjustment has been notably strong, with the deviation from the onshore market price increasing from 0 to 400-500 basis points, aimed at guiding the RMB to appreciate moderately [2]

Group 1: Dollar Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in the dollar index, which rose to 100 but then fell to 98.74 due to weak U.S. economic data, indicate ongoing volatility in the currency market [1] - Despite a temporary rebound, the dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of 8.5% this year, driven by weakening U.S. economic fundamentals and increasing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The mixed performance of U.S. economic data, particularly the significantly weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls for July, has raised concerns about a slowing economy, contributing to the dollar's decline [2][3] Group 2: Renminbi Trends - The renminbi's central parity against the dollar has shown a trend of appreciation, with the latest rate at 7.1366, marking a high point since November 2024 [1] - The People's Bank of China has been actively adjusting the central parity to stabilize the renminbi, reflecting a strong policy intent to guide exchange rate stability [1][5] - The renminbi's appreciation has been less pronounced compared to other major currencies, suggesting potential for a catch-up rally if the dollar continues to weaken [5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - There is an increasing willingness among foreign investors to hold renminbi-denominated assets, as indicated by a net inflow into Hong Kong and ADR markets, signaling a shift in asset allocation strategies [6] - The Chinese government's commitment to maintaining stable exchange rates and economic growth is expected to support the renminbi's value in the near term [6] - The outlook for the renminbi remains influenced by the dollar's trajectory, U.S.-China tariff negotiations, and domestic economic policies aimed at growth stabilization [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown characteristics of "low volatility + resilience" since June, achieving a basic "triple price unity" [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Yuan Resilience - The weakening trend of the US dollar index has contributed to the resilience of the yuan [1] - Domestic fundamentals and policy initiatives have provided support for the yuan [1] - The central bank's flexible operations to stabilize the exchange rate have played a crucial role [1] - The release of demand for foreign exchange settlement from clients has also bolstered the yuan's resilience [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The existing US tariffs on China will continue to exert pressure on exports, which remains a concern [1] - The key factors for the yuan's exchange rate will be the effectiveness of domestic consumption policies and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations after a potential easing of tariffs [1] - With the central bank's flexible exchange rate stabilization policies, the yuan is expected to maintain a low volatility state in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The external pressure on the RMB exchange rate is currently manageable due to the decline in the US dollar index, the strong implementation of the central bank's stable exchange rate policy, and the good performance of domestic A-shares and other risk assets, suggesting a phase of narrow fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [1][4]. Group 1: External Pressure and Policy Response - The US dollar index has shown a volatile downward trend this year, primarily due to the slower-than-expected implementation of tariff policies following Trump's inauguration [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy report indicates a shift from "strengthening expectation guidance" to "stabilizing market expectations," emphasizing the importance of maintaining stable exchange rate targets [2]. - The central bank has issued a total of 1,200 billion yuan in offshore central bank bills this year, significantly higher than historical levels, which supports the stability of the RMB [2][3]. Group 2: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential risk of increased tariffs imposed by the US on China remains a major long-term risk factor for the RMB exchange rate, with the possibility of further escalation [3][4]. - There exists a discrepancy in expectations regarding the extent and pace of US tariffs on China, which may not meet market expectations, and there is potential for positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [3][4]. - The recent "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" released by the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission may help stabilize foreign direct investment in China, countering the risks posed by potential US tariffs [3].