Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown characteristics of "low volatility + resilience" since June, achieving a basic "triple price unity" [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Yuan Resilience - The weakening trend of the US dollar index has contributed to the resilience of the yuan [1] - Domestic fundamentals and policy initiatives have provided support for the yuan [1] - The central bank's flexible operations to stabilize the exchange rate have played a crucial role [1] - The release of demand for foreign exchange settlement from clients has also bolstered the yuan's resilience [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The existing US tariffs on China will continue to exert pressure on exports, which remains a concern [1] - The key factors for the yuan's exchange rate will be the effectiveness of domestic consumption policies and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations after a potential easing of tariffs [1] - With the central bank's flexible exchange rate stabilization policies, the yuan is expected to maintain a low volatility state in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The external pressure on the RMB exchange rate is currently manageable due to the decline in the US dollar index, the strong implementation of the central bank's stable exchange rate policy, and the good performance of domestic A-shares and other risk assets, suggesting a phase of narrow fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [1][4]. Group 1: External Pressure and Policy Response - The US dollar index has shown a volatile downward trend this year, primarily due to the slower-than-expected implementation of tariff policies following Trump's inauguration [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy report indicates a shift from "strengthening expectation guidance" to "stabilizing market expectations," emphasizing the importance of maintaining stable exchange rate targets [2]. - The central bank has issued a total of 1,200 billion yuan in offshore central bank bills this year, significantly higher than historical levels, which supports the stability of the RMB [2][3]. Group 2: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential risk of increased tariffs imposed by the US on China remains a major long-term risk factor for the RMB exchange rate, with the possibility of further escalation [3][4]. - There exists a discrepancy in expectations regarding the extent and pace of US tariffs on China, which may not meet market expectations, and there is potential for positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [3][4]. - The recent "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" released by the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission may help stabilize foreign direct investment in China, countering the risks posed by potential US tariffs [3].