Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.883, while spot silver opened at $80.39/oz and is currently around $83.29/oz, with silver T+D trading at approximately 20,402 CNY/kg [1] - Last Friday, the dollar index rose by 0.26% to close at 99.130, and spot silver increased by 3.89% to close at $79.95/oz, driven by lower-than-expected US non-farm payrolls and geopolitical uncertainties caused by Trump [1] Economic Data - On January 9, silver ETF holdings increased by 93.05 tons to 16,308.48 tons [1] - The US non-farm payroll report indicated an increase of 50,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate at 4.4% [2] - The market perceives a zero probability of a Fed rate cut in January following the non-farm report [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed officials have commented on the labor market, with Barkin welcoming the decline in unemployment and Bostic emphasizing the need to focus on reducing inflation [2] - Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have projected rate cuts in June and September, and March, July, and September respectively, each by 25 basis points [2] Geopolitical Developments - Trump has threatened intervention in Iran, with the Iranian parliament warning of retaliation against US attacks [2] - In South America, Trump has canceled plans for a second wave of attacks on Venezuela and is engaging in exploratory diplomacy with the country [2] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market experienced fluctuations, opening at $73.403, reaching a low of $72.837, and a high of $82.766 before closing at $79.949, indicating a bullish trend [3] - Current trading strategies suggest maintaining long positions with stop-loss orders set at specific levels [3]

△美联储主席鲍威尔（资料图） 此前，美国总统特朗普2025年12月29日说，他预计2026年1月宣布美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 鲍威尔将于2026年5月结束任期。自2025年1月第二次出任美国总统以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储降息，希望借此提振经济，降低政府借贷成本。因不满美 联储未能积极降息，特朗普多次要求鲍威尔辞职。 据@CCTV国际时讯，据《纽约时报》当地时间1月11日报道，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美国联邦储备委员会华盛顿总部翻修相关事宜， 对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查。知情官员表示，这项调查包括对鲍威尔公开声明的分析以及对支出记录的审查，并于去年11月获得哥伦比亚特区联邦 检察官珍妮娜·皮罗的批准。皮罗是特朗普的长期盟友，去年被任命为该办公室负责人。 特朗普曾在接受采访时说，美联储前理事凯文·沃什是下一任美联储主席职位的头号候选人，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特也很出色。 △美联储大楼（资料图） 2017年，特朗普在其第一个总统任期中提名鲍威尔领导美联储。但2025年再次就任总统后，特朗普反复抨击鲍威尔，并威胁要起诉后者。 特朗普12月29日还提及据称耗资数十亿美元的美联储 ...

1月12日，本周一早间，贵金属价格开盘便直线飙升：现货黄金价格上涨逾2%，首次站上4600美元大 关，新年首月已累涨280美元；现货白银价格飙升超5%，向上突破83美元，创下历史新高。 这一涨势得益于地缘政治风险上升导致避险需求增加，同时，上周五糟糕的非农就业数据也增强了市场 对美联储降息的预期。 此外，以英国和德国为首的一些欧洲国家正在讨论加强在格陵兰岛军事存在的计划，以向美国总统特朗 普表明欧洲国家对北极安全的重视。知情人士称，德国将提议设立一个北约联合特派团来保护北极地 区。 此前，美国在对委内瑞拉的行动中抓获委总统马杜罗及其夫人，并将他们带离委内瑞拉。 在全球范围内的重重不确定性和地缘政治风险，推高了黄金等传统避险资产的价格。 地缘政治风险上升 据央视新闻，美国官员称，美国总统特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案。包括宣布向中东派遣航母战 斗群、发动网络攻击和信息战等。 据悉，近期美国政府内部已召开初步会议，"讨论支持（伊朗）抗议活动的方式"，其中包括美军对伊朗 政府目标进行军事打击，不过"特朗普政府内部许多人认为，现阶段采取重大军事行动将破坏抗议活 动"。 消息称，特朗普正在考虑所有选项，但尚未做出决定 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 Exclusive Financial Calendar by Sina Finance has officially launched, combining professional financial references with popular event planning, serving as both an investment decision guide and a practical assistant for sports viewing [1][10]. Group 1: Key Features - The calendar features three main highlights that ensure it is practical and not idle [2][11]. - It includes precise coverage of financial information, clearly marking key dates throughout the year, encompassing global economic data releases, central bank policy meetings, and core industry events, helping users accurately grasp market rhythms [14]. - The calendar also provides in-depth analysis of trending financial topics, focusing on areas such as AI industry development, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and central bank gold purchases, allowing users to stay updated on industry frontiers [14]. Group 2: Sports Integration - A special addition to the calendar is the complete schedule for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, detailing all matches from the opening game on June 11 to the final on July 19, featuring 48 teams and 104 matches, ensuring no viewing plans are missed [14].

据央视新闻消息，记者当地时间1月11日获悉，据知情官员透露，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔展开刑事调 查，调查内容涉及美联储对其华盛顿总部大楼的翻修工程，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目的范围向国会撒谎。 该知情官员表示，这项调查包括对鲍威尔公开声明的分析以及对支出记录的审查，并于去年11月获得哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官珍妮娜·皮罗的批准。皮罗 是特朗普的长期盟友，去年被任命为该办公室负责人。 鲍威尔表示，他将继续恪守参议院确认的职责，以正直之心履行使命。 （文章来源：期货日报） 今日开盘后，金银价格飙升，创历史新高。外盘方面，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中涨逾2%，最高触及4612.7美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货主力合约盘 中涨逾5%，最高触及83.905美元/盎司。内盘方面，沪金期货主力合约盘中涨超3%，最高升至1031.30元/克；沪银期货主力合约盘中涨超12%，最高升至 20641元/千克。 美国总统特朗普去年12月29日说，他预计2026年1月宣布美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔的继任人选。鲍威尔将于今年5月结束任期。 自去年1月第二次出任美国总统以来，特朗普一直敦促美联储降息，希 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on January 9, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 16 - day consecutive rise and reaching over 4100 points, and the trading volume of the two markets exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations. For example, the prices of copper,生猪, etc. are influenced by different factors and show different trends [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 9, the three major A - share indexes continued to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.92% to 4120.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.15% to 14120.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to 3327.81 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31526 billion yuan, an increase of 3261 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Coking Coal and Coke - On January 9, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1198.0 yuan, down 7.7 from the previous day, and the coke weighted index closed at 1749.6, down 32.0 from the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the EU carbon tariff has increased the cost of steel exports to the EU, the supply - side coke enterprise start - up has increased, and the total inventory has accumulated; the demand - side blast furnace start - up has also increased, and the daily average pig iron output has increased. For coking coal, domestic mine production capacity has recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance is relatively sufficient, and the clean coal inventory has accumulated, while the downstream steel - coke load has increased, but the coke enterprise profit loss has expanded [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - US sugar futures prices fell slightly due to the prospect of supply surplus last Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract showed a volatile consolidation trend. As of the week ending January 6, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,654 to 170,756 [4]. Rubber - Affected by short - selling pressure, Shanghai rubber futures prices fell last Friday. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 3345 tons to 120950 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3900 tons to 104490 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory decreased by 2015 tons to 59270 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1007 tons to 56952 tons [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, China has purchased nearly 10 million tons of US soybeans, reaching 80% of the negotiated purchase plan. Brazilian soybeans are mostly sown, and early - maturing soybeans are entering the harvest period. It is estimated that Brazil's soybean exports to China in 2026 will be 77 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from 2025. - Domestically, on January 9, the soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. Last week, the soybean crushing of oil mills slowed down, and the imported soybean inventory increased slightly. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous week. High - level soybean meal inventory will hinder price increases [6]. Live Pigs - On January 9, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11770 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The group farms have completed their annual slaughter plans, and the slaughter plan of breeding enterprises in January has been reduced. The demand side has strong seasonal consumption, which supports the price in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [7]. Shanghai Copper - Last Friday, the Shanghai copper main contract showed an upward trend, closing at 102220 yuan/ton. The macro - level has a strong easing expectation, and the supply of global copper mines remains tight. Although it is currently in the consumption off - season, emerging industries bring long - term demand growth. It is predicted that global copper demand will increase by 50% in 2040 [8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14490 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased compared with the previous trading day. The downstream yarn mills' purchasing power has weakened [8]. Iron Ore - On January 9, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed down 0.73% at 814.5 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [8]. Logs - On January 9, the log 2603 main contract opened at 780.5, with a lowest of 771, a highest of 780.5, and closed at 774.5, with a decrease of 258 lots in positions. The spot - end support needs to be concerned [8]. Asphalt - On January 9, the asphalt 2603 main contract closed up 0.51% at 3171 yuan. The current asphalt supply is at a low level, the inventory has accumulated, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the demand has decreased significantly. Supported by the cost of crude oil, the short - term price shows a volatile trend [10]. Steel - The current supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are stable, with low production, low consumption, and low inventory. After the New Year's Day, the building materials will enter the winter storage market. The plate is still restricted by high inventory, and the inventory pressure remains after the steel mills resume production. The black commodities are strong in the short term, but the fundamentals need to be tested later [10]. Alumina - The bauxite price has slightly declined, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, and the supply has slightly decreased. The demand for alumina has increased slightly due to the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The raw material alumina price is low, and the electrolytic aluminum plant's theoretical profit is good, with a positive production start - up sentiment. The domestic electrolytic aluminum new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is relatively stable. Due to the off - season, the downstream new orders have decreased, and the aluminum ingot inventory has continued to accumulate [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the criminal investigation launched against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, highlighting the political pressures surrounding his role and the potential implications for the financial markets [2][5][8]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation pertains to the renovation of the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters, with Powell stating that this action is unprecedented and reflects ongoing political threats from the Trump administration [5][8]. - Powell emphasized that the grand jury subpoena relates to a Senate hearing and the independence of the Federal Reserve in setting interest rates, asserting that the investigation is an attempt to undermine the Fed's autonomy [8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the investigation, the U.S. dollar index and stock futures experienced significant declines, while international gold and silver prices surged, with gold rising by 1.88% and silver increasing by over 4% [2]. - Analysts suggest that if the market perceives the investigation as a serious threat to Powell's ability to perform his duties, it could lead to further pressure on U.S. stocks and the dollar [2]. Group 3: Political Context - Former President Trump has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with Powell, having previously urged for interest rate cuts and expressing a desire to replace him, indicating a contentious relationship between the Fed and the Trump administration [5][6]. - Trump has threatened legal action against Powell, criticizing the management of the Federal Reserve's renovation project and labeling Powell as incompetent [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged, breaking its previous record and reaching a new high of $4550.880 per ounce, reflecting a 0.93% increase [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold prices have surpassed the historical record set on December 29, 2025, which was $4550.520 per ounce [1]. - As of the latest report, gold is trading at $4550.880 per ounce, with a daily increase of $41.900 [2]. - The highest price recorded during the trading session was $4551.480, while the lowest was $4505.655 [2]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - The World Gold Council's report indicates that gold prices are expected to rise by 15% to 30% in 2026, driven by investment demand, particularly through gold ETFs [3]. - Goldman Sachs has noted that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to an increase in metal prices, especially for precious metals and copper [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The outlook for gold prices in 2026 is influenced by the stability of the U.S. economy under monetary easing and the performance of the dollar index [4]. - Citic Securities predicts a strong likelihood of gold price increases due to expectations of dual monetary and fiscal easing in the U.S. and persistent stagflation pressures [4]. - Under neutral assumptions, models suggest that international gold prices could exceed $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026 [4].

美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔当地时间1月11日晚发布视频声明证实，特朗普政府因他2025年6月对美 国国会参议院所作证词，威胁对他提起刑事指控，并已于当地时间1月9日向美联储发出传票。鲍威尔认 为这是"借口"，目的是就美联储降息问题进一步向他施压。 据《纽约时报》稍早前报道，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美联储华盛顿总部翻修项目，以 及鲍威尔是否就该项目向美国国会作伪证一事，对鲍威尔展开刑事调查。 美联储主席证实遭刑事指控威胁 责编:陶纪燕 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 （来源：CCTV国际时讯） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Prosecutors have initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters and whether he misled Congress about the project's scope [1][3] - The investigation includes an analysis of Powell's public statements and a review of expenditure records, which received approval from U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, Janine Pirro, in November of the previous year [3] - President Trump has expressed his expectation to announce Powell's successor in January 2026, as Powell's term is set to end in May of this year [3] Group 2 - Since taking office for the second time in January of last year, President Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to boost the economy and reduce government borrowing costs [3] - Trump has repeatedly called for Powell's resignation due to dissatisfaction with the Fed's failure to aggressively cut interest rates [3]