【沪港通锦囊】沪港应加速推进数字资产市场互联互通 继中国人民银行行长潘功胜6月18日在"2025陆家嘴论坛"上首次提及"稳定币"话题之后，上海市国资委党委日前召开中心组学习会，专题聚焦"加密货币与稳 定币的发展趋势及应对策略"，另外，多地也纷纷官宣启动对稳定币的探索。在笔者看来，这股自上而下、多点开花的探索热潮绝非偶然，它深刻反映了中 国在全球数字经济浪潮中积极寻求战略主动的决心。尽管当前中国内地对加密货币交易始终保持严监管态势，但对于其底层技术——区块链以及更具应用潜 力的稳定币，中国则正展现出审慎而积极的研究姿态。 香港作为中国的对外窗口和离岸枢纽，应积极构建符合国际标准的数字资产和稳定币监管体系，以吸引国际资本和技术，进一步探索人民币离岸 稳定币的国际应用。 著名经济学家 宋清辉 笔者认为，上海在稳定币、加密货币领域，更强调服务实体经济、内部可控和金融稳定，其重点在于区块链技术应用，以及数字人民币的推广和应用；对于 稳定币的探索，目前主要围绕锚定法币、合规可控的模式，通过提升现有金融体系效率，服务人民币国际化和数字经济发展。香港则聚焦国际化、市场化和 金融创新，其《稳定币条例》的制定及后续生效，表明香港 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, emphasizing the relative return opportunities within the non-bank financial sector as the market transitions from a stock market to an incremental market since June 2025 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The A-share market has shifted to an incremental market, with trading activity increasing significantly. On July 22, 2025, the total transaction volume across three exchanges reached 1.93 trillion yuan, marking an 11.7% increase from the previous trading day. The margin financing and securities lending balance was 1.9 trillion yuan, up 0.8%, with financing purchases increasing by 7.6% [5]. Performance Forecast - For the first half of 2025, 29 brokerages that have announced profit forecasts expect a net profit growth rate of 75.02% year-on-year, with the second quarter projected to grow by 20.66%. The top five brokerages by profit growth include Huaxi Securities (1189.5%), Guolian Minsheng (1183.0%), and Guosheng Jin控 (315.5%) [6]. Regulatory and Business Innovations - The report highlights the potential benefits for brokerages from the upcoming stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong, effective August 1, 2025. Chinese brokerages are upgrading their virtual asset trading licenses, which could open new revenue streams through cryptocurrency trading commissions and stablecoin cross-border settlement [7]. Valuation Discrepancies - The report notes a significant valuation gap between H-shares and A-shares of brokerages. As of July 22, 2025, H-shares have increased by 73.9%, while A-shares have only risen by 22.0%, resulting in a 51.9% difference. The average price-to-book ratio for H-shares is 1.0, compared to 1.5 for A-shares, indicating potential for A-shares to catch up [7]. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - The report discusses a shift in investor sentiment from a trading strategy to a holding strategy, suggesting that the current brokerage market rally may be slower but more sustainable. The implementation of policies aimed at promoting high-quality development in public funds is expected to attract more capital into the underweighted non-bank financial sector, benefiting brokerages [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerages and financial technology leaders that are likely to benefit from active market trading [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that tariffs are not a solution to global economic imbalances, highlighting the risks associated with excessive trade deficits and surpluses [1][2]. Group 1: Global Economic Assessment - The IMF's 2025 External Sector Report evaluates the trade status of 30 major economies, which account for approximately 90% of global GDP [1]. - In 2024, the global current account balance as a percentage of world GDP is expected to increase significantly by 0.6 percentage points, reversing a trend of narrowing since the 2008-2009 financial crisis [1]. Group 2: U.S. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to widen by $228 billion in 2024, reaching $1.13 trillion, indicating macroeconomic imbalances within the U.S. [1]. - The IMF warns that the effectiveness of tariff barriers in improving trade imbalances is minimal, and escalating trade wars could have significant negative impacts on the global macroeconomy [1]. Group 3: Currency and Financial Stability Risks - The rise of protectionism is casting a shadow over global bilateral trade, direct investment, and securities investment flows, potentially leading to a fragmented international monetary system and increased financial volatility [2]. - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by 8% since January, marking the largest semi-annual decline since 1973, raising concerns about currency risk [2]. - The IMF acknowledges that while the dollar will maintain its dominant position, recent trade tensions and rising U.S. debt levels may prompt global investors to reassess their exposure to dollar risks [2]. - The emergence of stablecoins, particularly dollar-backed stablecoins, could reinforce the dollar's dominance but also pose financial stability risks [2].

Core Insights - The report by CertiK highlights the continuous expansion of the stablecoin market in the first half of 2025, with a total supply reaching $252 billion and a monthly settlement volume increase of 43% [1] - User engagement has significantly improved, with the total number of holding addresses surpassing 120 million as of Q3 2024 [1] - USDT remains the most widely held stablecoin, with over 5.8 million addresses, approximately 2.6 times that of USDC [1] Market Performance - The stablecoin market is experiencing notable growth, with USDC's market capitalization rising to $61 billion, making it the fastest-growing mainstream stablecoin due to its MiCA license and successful listing [1] - PayPal's PYUSD has doubled its market capitalization by integrating with the Solana network and launching a holding rewards program [1] - RLUSD has maintained zero security incidents since its launch, establishing a strong market position through its reliability in institutional applications [1] Risk Landscape - The stablecoin industry faces increasing security and compliance challenges, with 344 security incidents reported in the first half of 2025, resulting in total losses of $2.47 billion, a historical high [2] - Operational errors, such as the Bybit private key leak, have become a primary source of losses, with a single incident causing a loss of $1.5 billion [2] - Stablecoins are increasingly being used by hackers for money laundering, particularly on networks like TRON, which poses significant compliance risks [4] Regulatory Developments - Regulatory measures are reshaping the market landscape, with the advancement of the STABLE and GENIUS Acts in the U.S. Congress and the full implementation of the EU's MiCA regulation [4] - Compliance pressures are leading to market differentiation, where licensed and transparent reserve projects gain higher market trust, while non-compliant issuers are being marginalized [4] - Traditional financial institutions are actively piloting stablecoin projects, with Societe Generale launching a compliant USD stablecoin, USDCV, and other banks like Bank of America and Santander developing related projects [4] Future Trends - The report forecasts that RWA (Real World Asset) backed and yield-bearing stablecoins will become the main innovation line, potentially capturing 8% to 10% of the market by the end of the year [5] - RWA-backed stablecoins align with global regulatory trends towards stablecoin compliance by anchoring to off-chain assets like government bonds [5] - Yield-bearing stablecoins are attracting institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals due to their "on-chain money market fund" characteristics [5] Risk Management - The introduction of new models brings complex counterparty and strategic risks, emphasizing the need for rigorous risk management, transparent operational mechanisms, and proactive compliance stances for sustainable development of stablecoin projects [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the regulatory concerns surrounding the hype of stablecoins in the Hong Kong market, emphasizing the need for a more cautious approach to their development and issuance [2][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Concerns - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has expressed worries about the excessive conceptualization and market exuberance surrounding stablecoins, indicating a bubble-like trend [4]. - HKMA's president, Yu Weiwen, highlighted that despite initial plans to issue only a few stablecoin licenses, numerous institutions have approached the HKMA for potential licensing [8][9]. - Yu noted that many institutions are still in the conceptual phase and lack practical application scenarios, which raises concerns about their ability to manage financial risks effectively [10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Several listed companies in Hong Kong have seen significant stock price increases due to the stablecoin concept, with the Oriental Fortune Hong Kong Stablecoin Index rising by 2.49% on July 23 [2]. - Notable stock movements include Puxing Energy, which surged by 141.38% on July 10, and Delin Holdings, which experienced a price increase of over 70% on the same day due to announcements related to stablecoin projects [5][6]. - The article mentions that many A-share companies have issued clarifications stating they do not engage in stablecoin activities after being classified as stablecoin concept stocks [6]. Group 3: Future Developments - The HKMA plans to release a summary of the stablecoin issuer licensing system next week, with the licensing process set to begin on August 1 [10]. - The article indicates that only a few institutions have officially announced their intentions to apply for stablecoin licenses, including JD Coin Chain Technology and a consortium involving Standard Chartered Bank [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading global cross-border payment service provider, uniquely holding the VATP license, and is expected to stand out in the wave of stablecoins disrupting the global cross-border payment landscape [1] - Stablecoins are rapidly reshaping the global cross-border payment system, driven by legislative advancements in the US and initiatives in China to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [2][3] Summary by Sections Exceeding Expectations - Stablecoins are transforming the global cross-border payment system at an unprecedented speed and scale [2] - In the US, the new leadership is accelerating stablecoin legislation, prompting various stakeholders to expedite their involvement in stablecoin initiatives [2] - China aims to enhance the international influence of the Renminbi, with stablecoin implementation in cross-border payments being a key strategy [2] - Globally, countries are adopting diverse approaches to advance stablecoin payment scenarios, particularly in developing regions [2] Catalysts - The potential acceleration of the US "Genius Act" could enhance the development of USD stablecoins [3] - The Hong Kong stablecoin legislation is set to be implemented on August 1, with the first licenses expected to be issued within the year [3] - The increasing scale of Real World Assets (RWA) in Greater China is anticipated to drive demand for stablecoins [3] - The company's market capitalization has significantly increased, meeting the threshold for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which may enhance its prospects [3] Price Performance Analysis - Since coverage began at the end of May, the company's stock price has increased by 77% [4] - The current stock price reflects only part of the expectations, as the stablecoin market is broad and lacks clear core beneficiaries [4] - The company may benefit from increased capital inflows if it enters the Hong Kong Stock Connect [4] - As the thematic market matures, focus will shift to fundamental performance and actual realization, concentrating funds on core beneficiaries [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Without considering the incremental contribution from stablecoins, the company's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 30% from 2024 to 2027, with profit acceleration expected in 2026-2027 [5] - The current price corresponds to a PS ratio of 7.7x for this year and 5.7x for 2026, while global stablecoin-related companies are valued between 10-15x [5] - The target market capitalization is estimated at HK$23.6 billion, with a target price of HK$21.85, indicating a potential upside of 75.4% [11]

21世纪经济报道记者孙永乐 7月23日，证券板块涨幅居前，A股、港股券商股集体大涨，午后有所回落。 今日上午，A股市场，国盛金控盘中涨停，国信证券、哈投证券、广发证券等大涨，带领上证指数一度 突破3600点。截至收盘，沪指冲高回落微涨，收涨0.01%，深成指跌0.37%，创业板指跌0.01%。 与此同时，港股方面，中资券商股再度大涨，中州证券一度大涨超17%，国联民生一度大涨超10%，中 信建设证券、国泰君安国际大幅拉升。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 现价(元) | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002736.SZ Mi | 国信证券 | 13.08 | 5.14 | | 002670.SZ Mi | 国盛金控 | 15.38 | 4.98 | | 000776.SZ Mi | 广发证券 | 19.54 | 3.99 | | 600864.SH Mi | 哈投股份 | 6.90 | 3.76 | | 600030.SH Mi | 中信证券 | 29.78 | 2.94 | | 601688.SH M | 华泰证券 | 19.51 | 2.63 | | 6015 ...

新华财经北京7月23日电（高二山）人民银行23日开展1505亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有4505亿元 逆回购到期，公开市场实现净回笼3000亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种止跌，14天品种继续小幅下跌。具体来看，隔夜Shibor上涨5.00BP，报1.3670%；7天Shibor 上涨0.10BP，报1.4630%；14天Shibor下跌2.40BP，报1.5270%。 | | | | 2025-07-23 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | tr | O/N | 1.3670 | 5.00 | | ゃ | 1W | 1.4630 | 0.10 | | ⇒ | 2W | 1.5270 | 2.40 | | 个 | 1M | 1.5290 | 0.00 | | 1 | 3M | 1.5510 | 0.20 | | t | 6M | 1.5960 | 0.50 | | 中 | 9M | 1.6160 | 0.40 | | 1 | 1Y | 1.6250 | 0. ...

7月23日上午，两地券商股集体大涨，港股中州证券一度暴涨超17%，国联民生涨幅超10%。A股方面，国盛金控直接涨停，国信证券、哈投证券、中银证券 等大幅拉升。券商股的强势表现带动上证指数一度突破3600点关口。 然而午后风云突变，两地券商股集体回落，龙头股纷纷大幅回撤。这一戏剧性转折背后，香港金管局总裁余伟文的表态成为关键转折点。 《稳定币条例》将于8月1日正式生效。按照条例规定，自生效日起向香港公众宣传推广任何无牌稳定币均属违法行为。监管层呼吁市民提高警觉，避免误入 法网。 基本面支撑仍然稳固 尽管监管表态引发短期波动，券商股的基本面表现依然亮眼。华西证券数据显示，截至7月20日，29家上市券商或参股券商的上市公司发布中期业绩预告。 这29家公司净利润同比增长幅度平均值达到171.03%至203.81%，其中14家净利润最大同比增幅超过100%。 市场交投活跃度的提升为券商业绩增长提供了强劲动力。2025年上半年，A股日均股基成交额达到15703亿元，同比提升63%。两市融资余额持续大幅增 加，显示市场杠杆资金的积极参与。 资本市场环境的改善使得券商各项业务全面受益。财富管理、证券投资收益大幅增长，成为业绩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid transformation of the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the rise of cryptocurrencies and the explosive growth of stablecoins, which pose structural challenges to the Chinese yuan and highlight the need for cautious responses from China [1][2]. Group 1: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization of global stablecoins has exceeded $260 billion, a 12-fold increase from $20 billion in 2020 [2][7]. - The dominance of USD stablecoins is significant, accounting for over 85% of the market, reinforcing the USD's position as the global reserve currency [2][7]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has emphasized that stablecoins will enhance the global reach of the USD and increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, which are key reserve assets supporting stablecoins [2][7]. Group 2: China's Response to Stablecoins - The Shanghai Municipal State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has signaled a shift towards a more open attitude regarding digital currencies, contrasting with previous strict regulations against virtual currency trading [3][9]. - There is a notable divergence in opinions among experts regarding the development path of the Chinese yuan stablecoin, with some advocating for an open and proactive approach while others suggest a more cautious "offshore first" strategy [4][12]. - The potential for a yuan stablecoin to stimulate demand for the yuan is highlighted, especially given the high internal and external flow of stablecoins in the Asia-Pacific region [10]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. has initiated federal-level legislation for stablecoins, while Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations are set to take effect, indicating a global race surrounding stablecoin frameworks [5][6]. - The upcoming stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong will require stablecoins to be backed by 100% of the same currency's high-quality reserve assets, laying a legal foundation for offshore yuan stablecoins [13]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities for Yuan Stablecoin - The lack of liquidity in the offshore yuan market is a significant challenge, with current offshore yuan deposits and products only slightly above one trillion [14]. - Experts suggest that increasing the issuance of yuan government bonds in offshore markets and enhancing hedging products could improve the liquidity and usage of the yuan [14]. - The unique advantages of a yuan stablecoin include leveraging China's manufacturing leadership to integrate into global trade and payment systems, potentially reducing the dominance of the USD [11][12].