Core Viewpoint - The performance of Chinese bank stocks improved in Q4 2024, with a preference for the four major state-owned banks due to their lower risk exposure to non-housing retail loans and less impact from fixed income market fluctuations [1][6]. Group 1: Profitability and Growth - In Q4 2024, operating profit and profit growth accelerated to 6.8% and 2.5% year-on-year, respectively, driven by a reduced narrowing of net interest margin (NIM) and strong growth in non-interest income [2]. - Non-interest income grew by 10% year-on-year in Q4, primarily due to investment income, while fee income remained flat with a decline of 3% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Asset Quality - Retail loan non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased by 18 basis points year-on-year, while corporate loan NPL ratio decreased by 15 basis points [3]. - The proportion of retail loans in the loan portfolio decreased from approximately 34% in 2023 to about 33% in 2024, with the overall NPL ratio declining from 90% in 2023 to 81% in 2024 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For FY 2025, revenue growth is expected to moderately improve compared to FY 2024, with a smaller narrowing of NIM anticipated despite a further expected decrease in loan market quotation rates (LPR) [4]. - Fee income is expected to improve in 2025 as capital market and consumer-related fees recover, although retail asset quality may continue to deteriorate [4]. Group 4: Preferred and Avoided Stocks - The preferred order of banks is the four major state-owned banks > China Merchants Bank > CITIC Bank > other banks, with China Construction Bank being the top pick due to stable earnings and a strong balance sheet [6]. - The banks to avoid include Ping An Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Postal Savings Bank of China due to their higher risk exposure to non-housing retail loans and significant asset quality risks [6].

每经记者 张寿林 每经编辑 马子卿 负债方面，近年来民生银行通过深耕客户，获取高质量负债的成效逐步显现，存款付息率持续下降。各 项存款中，个人存款较上年末增加918亿元，占比提升2.4个百分点；活期存款较上年末增加1275亿元， 占比提升3.2个百分点。同时，存款付息率降幅持续扩大，2024年存款付息率2.14%，较上年下降17个 BP，下半年环比再下降20个BP。 "民生银行2024年下半年息差环比提升，带动营业收入下半年环比增长，主要是受益于负债成本的有效 管控和资产结构的不断优化。"民生银行副行长李彬表示，预计2025年银行业净息差仍将承压，该行将 积极应对形势变化，着力通过客户基础扩大，核心主营业务增长，力求推动净息差和营业收入变化优于 市场平均表现，并在此基础上力争营业收入总量保持平稳。 民生银行董事长高迎欣说，2021年以来，该行持续深化民企战略，升级服务模式，更加强调为客户创造 价值，成为民营企业的首选银行，尤其是携手他们穿越经济周期。 4月1日下午，民生银行以网络直播的形式召开2024年度业绩交流会。此前公布的年报显示，2024年末民 生银行集团资产总额7.81万亿元，较上年末增长1.82%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Jiangyin Bank (002807.SZ) with a current price of 4.45 CNY [1]. Core Views - Jiangyin Bank's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 3.96 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.04 billion CNY, up 7.9% year-on-year. The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) is 11.55%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Jiangyin Bank's revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates for 2024 are 2.5%, -4.8%, and 7.9%, respectively, with improvements of 1.2, 0.7, and 1.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters [4]. - The net interest income and non-interest income growth rates are -6% and 31.2%, respectively, with increases of 1.3 and 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters [4]. Loan and Deposit Growth - By the end of 2024, the growth rates for interest-earning assets and loans are 6.6% and 7.6%, respectively, showing a slight improvement from the end of Q3 2024 [5]. - The bank's deposits grew at a rate of 9.1% year-on-year, with a notable increase in time deposits, which accounted for 63% of total deposits by year-end [6]. Net Interest Margin (NIM) and Income Structure - The NIM increased by 2 basis points to 1.76% despite a decline in asset yields and loan pricing pressure [7]. - Non-interest income reached 1.16 billion CNY, growing by 31% year-on-year, with significant contributions from investment income [8]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - By the end of 2024, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and attention ratio were 0.86% and 1.22%, respectively, indicating a decrease from the previous quarter [9]. - The capital adequacy ratios are robust, with the core Tier 1 capital ratio at 14.1% and the total capital adequacy ratio at 15.2% [10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 0.86 CNY, 0.89 CNY, and 0.91 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating a favorable valuation [11].

随着贷款总额增加，工行、建行、农行、中行、交行和邮储银行六家 大型商业银行 （以下统称 "六大行"）近五年不良贷款 余额也持续上升 。 2024 年末工商银行不良贷款余额达到了 3794.58 亿元 ，建设银行和农业银行不良贷款余额也超过 3000 亿元 ，中国银行达到 2687.81 亿元 ，交通银行超过 1000 亿元 ，邮储银行也达到了 803.19 亿元 。 由于分母扩大， 六大行整体不良贷款率维持稳定 。除邮储银行外，其他 五家大型商业银行近五年 不良贷款率持续下降 ，与 2020 年末相比，五家大型商业银行 2024 年末不良贷款率均大幅下降（ 下降 幅度超过 20 个 BP ）。邮储银行 2024 年末不良贷款率比 2020 年末增加了 2 个 BP ，但近五年均控制 在 0.9% 以下， 整体不良贷款率在六大行中始终保持最优 。 | 银行名称 | 2020年末 | 2021 年末 | 2022年末 | 2023年末 | 2024 年末 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工商银行 | 1.58% | 1.42% | 1. 38% | 1.36% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 6.30 CNY, maintaining the current rating [6]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady improvement in profitability and asset quality, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 2.56% for 2024 [2][4]. - The net interest income has seen a decline of 3.77% year-on-year, but the non-interest income has increased by 15.87%, indicating a shift in revenue structure [2][10]. - The average yield on interest-earning assets has decreased to 3.34%, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities has improved to 2.12%, supporting the stability of net interest margins [14][15]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 630.1 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.16% [2][4]. - The net interest income for 2024 was 448.9 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.77% [2][10]. - Non-interest income reached 181.2 billion CNY, showing a significant growth of 15.87% year-on-year [2][10]. - The company's net profit for 2024 was 237.8 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 2.56% [2][4]. Asset and Liability Management - As of the end of 2024, the total interest-earning assets amounted to 33.91 trillion CNY, growing by 3.4% from the first half of 2024 and 4.7% year-on-year [3][21]. - The interest-bearing liabilities reached 30.3 trillion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [21][25]. - The structure of interest-bearing liabilities is primarily composed of deposits (78.8%), existing bonds (6.8%), interbank liabilities (10.8%), and borrowings from the central bank (3.7%) [21][25]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio slightly increased to 1.25% by the end of 2024, down 2 basis points from the previous year [27][30]. - The loan provision coverage ratio stands at 200.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9 percentage points [29][30]. - The overdue loan ratio recorded at 1.19%, indicating a slight increase from the previous half-year [27][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved an operating income of 821.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 365.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [3][4] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 9.88%, down 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company continues to expand its balance sheet with a strong focus on key areas of credit support, with interest-earning assets growing by 8.6% year-on-year [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 showed year-on-year growth rates of -2.5%, -4.2%, and 0.5% respectively, indicating a stabilization in operational performance [4] - The net interest income decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, while non-interest income fell by 1.9% [4][10] - The company’s loan growth for 2024 was 2.29 trillion, with significant increases in loans to key sectors such as manufacturing and green development [6] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.34%, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, indicating stable asset quality [11] - The provision coverage ratio was 214.9%, reflecting a solid buffer against potential loan losses [11][29] - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio stood at 14.1%, showing a healthy capital position [11][27] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.05, 1.08, and 1.11 respectively, with a current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.63 for 2025 [12][30] - The company’s cash dividend payout ratio remains stable at 31.3%, with a current dividend yield of 4.5% [12]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Commercial Bank reported a slight increase in net profit for 2024, with a net profit of 15.186 billion RMB, up 0.92% year-on-year, and a significant increase in fair value changes net income by 1095.92% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The bank achieved an operating income of 67.65 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.19% [2]. - Total profit amounted to 17.579 billion RMB, reflecting a 0.50% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The net interest income was 45.157 billion RMB, down 4.99% year-on-year, with interest income at 110.697 billion RMB, up 0.40% [2][3]. - Non-interest net income reached 22.493 billion RMB, a 39.05% increase, driven by strong performance in trading financial assets [3]. Asset and Liability Overview - As of the end of 2024, total assets were 3,325.539 billion RMB, up 5.78% from the previous year [4]. - Total liabilities increased by 5.70% to 3,122.796 billion RMB [4]. - The bank's loan and advance total was 1,857.116 billion RMB, an increase of 8.21% [4]. Asset Quality - Non-performing loans (NPL) stood at 25.494 billion RMB, an increase of 8.98 billion RMB, with an NPL ratio of 1.38%, down 0.06 percentage points [5][6]. - The provision coverage ratio was 178.67%, a decrease of 3.93 percentage points [6]. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio was 12.61%, up 0.42 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased to 8.38%, reflecting a 0.16 percentage point rise [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Postal Savings Bank, with current prices at 5.33 CNY and 5.09 HKD respectively [1]. Core Insights - The bank reported a revenue of 348.8 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.5 billion CNY, up 0.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) was 9.84%, down 1.01 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth improved by 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with net interest income increasing by 1.5% year-on-year and non-interest income rising by 3.2% [3]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 was 1.87%, narrowing by 2 basis points from the previous quarter and 14 basis points year-on-year [6][7]. - Non-interest income accounted for 18% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [7]. Loan and Deposit Growth - By the end of 2024, interest-earning assets and loans grew by 7.9% and 9.4% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - The bank's total deposits increased by 9.5% year-on-year, with retail deposits making up 89.1% of total deposits [5]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 0.9%, up 4 basis points from the previous quarter, but still below the industry average [8]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 286.2%, down 15.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [8]. Capital Adequacy - By the end of 2024, the bank's core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.56%, up 14 basis points from the previous quarter [9]. - The risk-weighted assets (RWA) grew by 5.3% year-on-year, indicating a stable capital position [9]. Cost Management - The bank plans to reduce its savings agency fees, which is expected to lower overall business and management expenses by 3.5 billion CNY [10][11]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.87 CNY for 2024, with a stable cash dividend payout ratio of 30% [12][33].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Bank reported strong performance in 2024, achieving "double growth" in revenue and net profit, while maintaining stable asset quality and optimizing its asset and liability structure [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2024, CITIC Bank achieved operating revenue of 213.646 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%. Net interest income was 146.679 billion yuan, up 2.19%, with a net interest margin of 1.77%, outperforming the market for three consecutive years [1][2]. - Non-interest income reached 66.967 billion yuan, growing 7.39% year-on-year, marking five consecutive years of positive growth, with a non-interest income ratio of 31.34%, up 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Asset Quality and Provisioning - CITIC Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) balance was 66.485 billion yuan, an increase of 1.685 billion yuan (2.60%) year-on-year, with an NPL ratio of 1.16%, down 0.02 percentage points, achieving six consecutive years of decline [3]. - The provision coverage ratio improved by 1.84 percentage points to 209.43%, continuing an upward trend for four years. The new NPL ratio decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 1.48% [3]. Asset and Liability Structure - CITIC Bank's total assets exceeded 9.5 trillion yuan, reaching 95,327.22 billion yuan, a 5.31% increase year-on-year. Total loans and advances were 57,201.28 billion yuan, up 4.03%, and customer deposits totaled 57,782.31 billion yuan, increasing by 7.04% [4]. - The bank optimized its asset and liability structure, with general loans increasing by 0.27 percentage points to 55.29%, while discount loans decreased by 1.54 percentage points to 7.87% [4]. Future Strategy - For 2025, CITIC Bank plans to maintain moderate growth in asset allocation, focusing on structural optimization. The credit growth target is set at 330 billion yuan, with a 5.9% increase, including 270 billion yuan for corporate credit and 120 billion yuan for retail business [4][5]. - The bank aims to enhance its digital risk control capabilities and adjust its business structure to capture market opportunities, reducing low-yield assets while increasing high-yield credit bond allocations [5].

2025 年 3 月 27 日 公司研究 经营业绩稳中有进，资产质量保持稳健 ——中国银行（601988.SH）2024 年年报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：5.48 元 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 2,943.88 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 16,132.45 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 4.05/5.6 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 8.72% | 股价相对走势 要点 事件： 3 月 26 日，中国银行发布 2024 年年度报告，全年实现营业收入 6301 亿，同比 增长 1.2%，归母净利润 2378 亿，同比增长 2.6%。加权平均净资产收益率 9.5%， 同比下降 0.62pct。 点评： 盈利增速较前三季度提升 2.1pct，经营业绩稳中有进。中行 2024 年营收、PPOP、 归母净利润同比增速分 ...