1月20日，国新办举行新闻发布会。国家发展改革委有关负责人在会上表示，我国将研究制定并出台 2026—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案，以新供给创造新需求，提供强有力的创新举措和要素保障。 当前，我国经济面临"供强需弱"的问题，亟需通过扩大内需、优化供给，推动供需在更高水平上实现动 态平衡与良性循环，加快形成更多依靠内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。 二是着力提高居民收入。居民收入增长是全面扩大内需的基础前提。2026年我国将制定实施城乡居民增 收计划，在财政支出中统筹"投资于物"与"投资于人"，优化政府投资结构，提高民生类项目的投资与支 出比重，从而有效带动需求提升。 当前我国经济发展中周期性、结构性问题相互交织，全面扩大内需既要做好短期逆周期调节、稳定需 求，更要依靠改革构建经济循环畅通的新模式。在生产、分配、交换、消费四个环节中，分配与交换更 依赖于体制机制支撑。为此，应加快推进全国统一大市场建设，持续优化社会分配格局，为内需增长提 供坚实制度保障。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 从年度短期政策来看，2026年我国将在优化"两新"（设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策基础上实施新机 制。根据已发布文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to show resilience and progress in 2026, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the modern industrial system, as highlighted by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) officials during a press conference following the release of 2025 economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development and Projections - In 2025, the added value of high-tech manufacturing accounted for over 17% of industrial output, with the digital economy's value projected to reach 49 trillion yuan [1]. - The NDRC anticipates a positive overall economic trend for 2026, with significant potential in consumption, investment, technology, and industry [1][2]. - The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth exceeded 67% in 2025, with consumption contributing 52% [3]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives and Strategies - The primary task for 2026 is to strengthen domestic demand and build a robust domestic market, addressing the current imbalance of strong supply and weak demand [2]. - The NDRC plans to develop a strategic implementation plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, focusing on new demand leading to new supply [2]. - The government will enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises and streamline the application process for equipment upgrade projects [4][5]. Group 3: Consumer and Investment Support - In 2025, over 8,400 long-term special bonds were allocated to support equipment upgrade projects, leading to total investments exceeding 1 trillion yuan and boosting overall investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [3]. - The "Two New" policy, which includes large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, is set to continue, with 625 billion yuan allocated for the first batch of subsidies in 2026 [4][5]. - The NDRC aims to optimize the "Two New" policy's support scope and subsidy standards to enhance its effectiveness [5]. Group 4: Market Integration and Reform - The construction of a unified national market is emphasized as a key support for domestic circulation, with foundational systems being established and market infrastructure improving [5][6]. - The NDRC will develop regulations to support the unified market and clarify the roles of local governments in promoting economic development [6]. - Efforts will be made to address issues such as low-price competition and local government procurement to facilitate the unified market's development [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is the result of the joint action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the improvement of economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that the supply - side reform in 2026 will continue, pushing up the prices of bulk commodities and driving up the prices of resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4710.60, 4708.60, 4674.00, and 4615.00 respectively, with price drops of - 21.00, - 18.40, - 11.80, and - 15.40. The trading volumes were 25937.00, 79866.00, 19613.00, and 4293.00, and the open interest increased by 1118.00, 398.00, 487.00, and 591.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3073.60, 3075.40, 3069.60, and 3040.80 respectively, with price drops of - 3.00, - 3.00, - 5.20, and - 3.80. The trading volumes were 9734.00, 31503.00, 5816.00, and 1675.00, and the open interest changes were 166.00, - 503.00, 251.00, and 221.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8257.80, 8248.80, 8142.00, and 8024.20 respectively, with price drops of - 40.80, - 41.00, - 21.40, and - 12.20. The trading volumes were 37883.00, 123309.00, 38855.00, and 13522.00, and the open interest increased by 3365.00, 3742.00, 5200.00, and 6430.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8162.20, 8120.80, 7946.00, and 7778.00 respectively, with price drops of - 80.60, - 84.60, - 72.60, and - 79.40. The trading volumes were 41590.00, 150527.00, 38608.00, and 15115.00, and the open interest changes were 846.00, 3572.00, - 535.00, and 4320.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 2.00, 1.80, - 9.00, and - 41.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 4.20, 1.20, - 15.80, and - 43.40 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4718.88, 3070.65, 8247.80, and 8182.75 respectively, with price drops of - 0.33, - 0.17, - 0.48, and - 1.00. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 282.72, 60.00, 289.86, and 336.69, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6719.61, 1757.36, 5881.71, and 5790.37 respectively [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, optional consumption, and real - estate finance industries had price increases of 0.97%, 1.23%, 0.62%, and 0.64% respectively, while the industrial, pharmaceutical and healthcare, information technology, and telecommunications services industries had price drops of - 0.32%, - 0.95%, - 1.96%, and - 2.88% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, and far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 8.28, - 10.28, - 44.88, and - 103.88 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, and far - quarter - SSE 50) were 2.95, 4.75, - 1.05, and - 29.85 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, and far - quarter - CSI 500) were 10.00, 1.00, - 105.80, and - 223.60 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, and far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 20.55, - 61.95, - 236.75, and - 404.75 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4113.65, 14155.63, 8727.52, and 3277.98 respectively, with price drops of - 0.01%, - 0.97%, - 1.19%, and - 1.79% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26487.51, 52991.10, 6796.86, and 24689.67 respectively, with price drops of - 0.29%, - 1.11%, - 2.06%, and - 1.08% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - **Policy Measures**: A package of policies for promoting domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination has been introduced, including the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment, the implementation of a loan interest - subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, and the optimization of loan interest - subsidy policies for service providers, personal consumption loans, and equipment renewal loans [2] - **Global Bond Market**: The Greenland crisis and concerns about fiscal pressure have triggered a global bond - market sell - off. Japanese long - term government bonds have been sold off on a large scale, and the yields of 30 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds have risen by more than 25 basis points in a single day. The yields of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury bonds have all risen by about 8 basis points. A Danish pension fund plans to liquidate its US Treasury bond holdings [2] - **Government Speeches and Policies**: Vice - Premier He Lifeng attended the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 and held talks with the US Treasury Secretary and the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies should focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued [2] 6. Industry Information - **Water Resources and Water - saving Industry**: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will continue to improve the total water - resource management and comprehensive water - saving system, aiming to increase the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water to over 0.6 and expand the scale of the water - saving industry to over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [2] - **Oil Price Adjustment**: The domestic refined - oil price has increased for the first time in 2026. Starting from 24:00 on January 20, the prices of gasoline and diesel have increased by 85 yuan per ton, and the prices of 92 - octane gasoline, 95 - octane gasoline, and 0 - grade diesel have increased by 0.07 yuan per liter on average [2] - **Medical Insurance Policy**: The National Healthcare Security Administration has officially issued a guide for the pricing of auxiliary operation items, standardizing 37 price items, 5 additional items, and 1 extended item [2] - **Land Supply Plan**: Beijing has announced its 2026 construction - land supply plan, with 200 - 240 hectares of commercial - residential land and 350 hectares of affordable - housing land to be supplied. A city - renewal plan index has been listed for the first time [2] 7. Stock Index Views - **Market Performance**: The three major US stock indexes declined, and the domestic stock index fell in the previous trading day. The petroleum and petrochemical sector led the gains, while the communication sector led the losses. The market trading volume was 2.80 trillion yuan. On January 19, the margin trading balance decreased by 8.501 billion yuan to 2.705932 trillion yuan [2] - **Market Outlook**: The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner, driven by the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets [2]

当前，我国经济面临"供强需弱"的问题，亟需通过扩大内需、优化供给，推动供需在更高水平 上实现动态平衡与良性循环，加快形成更多依靠内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模 式。 构建新发展模式是一项系统性工程和长期任务，也是谋划制定2026—2030年扩大内需战略实 施方案的重要目标。落实这一任务，首先需要从战略层面将宏观政策的着力点放在做强国内大 循环上，全面扩大国内需求，同时把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，加快构建现代化产业 体系。通过以新需求牵引新供给、以新供给创造新需求，促进消费与投资、供给与需求之间形 成良性互动，不断增强国内大循环的内生动力和可靠性。 在供需衔接方面，需进一步完善市场经济体制，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，促进要素自由 流动，充分激发市场活力，形成公平竞争、优胜劣汰的市场环境。当前，除了深化要素改革， 在新旧动能转换的关键阶段，需重点治理"内卷式"竞争，推动竞争方式从"拼价格"向"优价 值"转变。同时，完善市场准入、公平竞争、产能退出等机制，加强产能调控，化解供大于求 的阶段性问题。 1月20日，国新办举行新闻发布会。国家发展改革委有关负责人在会上表示，我国将研究制定 并出台2026 ...

全年经济总量迈上140万亿元新台阶、制造业增加值连续16年位居全球第一、年末常住人口城镇化率比 上年提高0.89个百分点……2025年，我国交出一份高质量的发展答卷。 新的一年，如何落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局？国务院新闻办公室20日举行 新闻发布会，国家发展改革委相关负责人回答记者提问。 充分挖掘中国经济潜能 "经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成，经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性进一步彰显，民生政策更有温度，交 出了一份高质量答卷。"在总结过去一年经济发展成果时，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林这样概括。 "展望2026年，我们认为消费与投资、科技与产业、城乡与区域都将释放出巨大的发展潜能。"国家发展 改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈说。 从点上看，新技术新产品新场景蔚然成势。周陈表示，我国新能源、新材料、航空航天等新的经济增长 点正在蓄势待发。"目前我们正在谋划推进一批'十五五'时期的高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程。"周 陈说。 从线上看，创新链产业链人才链加速融合。周陈介绍，我国有完整的产业体系和超大规模市场，也有全 球规模最宏大、门类最齐全的人才资源，具备了将创新成果从"书架"推上"货架"的全链条全 ...

数据来源：国家发展改革委 制图：蔡华伟 1月20日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，邀请国家发展改革委有关负责同志围绕"落实中央经济工作会 议精神，推动'十五五'实现良好开局"介绍有关情况。 惠民生和促消费紧密结合。有关方面正研究制定稳岗扩容提质行动和城乡居民增收计划，增强居民消费 能力、优化消费供给。今年，消费品以旧换新政策还将继续实施，首批600多亿元资金计划已经下达。 提振消费专项行动还将深入实施，打造一批带动面广、显示度高的消费新场景。 "投资于物"和"投资于人"紧密结合。将用好各类政府投资资金，优化政府投资结构，提高民生类项目政 府投资比重，促进需求提升。继续发行使用新型政策性金融工具，带动更多民间投资和社会资本。 加快打造形成全球科技创新高地和新兴产业重要策源地 1月19日，2025年中国经济成绩单发布。"成绩来之不易，彰显我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能 大的特征。"国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈认为，展望2026年，经济结构将持续向优、发展 动能持续向新、整体发展态势持续向好。 新技术新产品新场景蔚然成势。新能源、新材料、航空航天、量子科技、生物制造、具身智能等新的经 济增长点蓄势待发， ...

Core Viewpoint - The core focus of the recent policies is to stimulate private investment, aiming to help enterprises reduce financing costs and enhance profitability through a comprehensive set of measures [4][5]. Group 1: Policies Supporting Private Investment - A package of policies has been introduced, including a special guarantee plan for private investment, optimized financial subsidies for equipment updates, and loan interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises [5][6]. - The policies are designed to lower financing costs and reduce barriers for private enterprises, addressing the issues of expensive and difficult financing [6][7]. - The new special guarantee plan increases the maximum guarantee amount for individual enterprises from 10 million to 20 million yuan, with the government's risk-sharing ratio rising from 20% to 40%, allowing for a maximum government guarantee of 8 million yuan on a 20 million yuan loan [6][7]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Direction for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on increasing total expenditure, optimizing expenditure structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing economic vitality [8][9]. - The total fiscal deficit, debt scale, and expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that overall expenditure increases and key areas are prioritized [8]. - The government aims to optimize the expenditure structure by reducing ineffective spending and directing more funds towards consumption, human investment, and social welfare [8][9]. Group 3: Market System and Export Tax Adjustments - The Ministry of Finance has announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for certain products, including photovoltaic and phosphorous chemical products, starting from April 1, 2026, to promote efficient resource use and reduce environmental pollution [11]. - This adjustment is part of a broader strategy to guide reasonable industrial structure adjustments and promote high-quality economic development [11]. - The Ministry will focus on deepening fiscal and tax reforms, standardizing fiscal subsidies, and optimizing government procurement to support the construction of a unified and competitive market system [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government plans to develop and implement a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, aiming to create new demand through new supply and provide strong innovative measures and resource guarantees [1] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The current economic situation in China faces a "strong supply and weak demand" issue, necessitating the expansion of domestic demand and optimization of supply to achieve a dynamic balance and virtuous cycle at a higher level [1] - The new development model is a systematic and long-term task, with a focus on strengthening the domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand while emphasizing the real economy [1] Group 2: Market Mechanisms - There is a need to improve the market economic system, promote the construction of a unified national market, and enhance the free flow of factors to stimulate market vitality and create a fair competitive environment [2] - In 2026, new mechanisms will be implemented to optimize the "two new" policies (equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in), including lowering investment thresholds for project applications and increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [2] Group 3: Financial Support - The Ministry of Finance plans to further optimize measures for consumer loans and service industry loans in 2026, increasing the interest subsidy cap for individual consumers from 500 yuan to 3000 yuan and for service industry enterprises from 1 million yuan to 10 million yuan [3] - The number of institutions providing these subsidies will expand from over 20 to more than 500, covering a wide range of new scenarios and industries [3] Group 4: Income Growth - Increasing residents' income is a fundamental prerequisite for expanding domestic demand, with plans to implement an urban and rural residents' income growth plan in 2026 [4] - The government will optimize investment structures to increase the proportion of spending on livelihood projects, effectively driving demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to strengthen domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth, with a strategic focus on expanding domestic consumption from 2026 to 2030 [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Domestic Demand - Insufficient demand and supply issues are currently prominent in China's economic development [1] - By 2025, the actual growth of residents' disposable income is projected to be 5%, aligning with economic growth and supporting domestic demand [1] - Domestic demand is expected to contribute over 67% to economic growth, with consumption accounting for 52% of this contribution [1] Group 2: Policy Measures for Demand Expansion - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement three key combinations: enhancing livelihoods and promoting consumption, investing in physical assets and human capital, and aligning policy support with reform innovation [2] - The NDRC will focus on stabilizing employment and increasing income to boost consumer capacity and optimize supply [2] - A series of high-impact policies will be introduced to support the quality development of the service industry [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - The government emphasizes the need for a dynamic balance between supply and demand, aiming for an economic model driven by domestic demand and consumption [2] - The focus will be on developing the real economy and modern industrial systems while promoting a unified national market [2][3] Group 4: Market Regulation and Competition - The NDRC aims to address "involution" in competition by shifting from price competition to value competition [3] - Mechanisms for market access, fair competition, and capacity exit will be improved to manage supply-demand imbalances [3] - A quality brand strategy will be implemented to combat disorderly low-price competition and promote a healthy market environment [3] Group 5: Institutional Reforms for Market Construction - The NDRC plans to advance institutional reforms for a unified national market through a new regulation, two lists of prohibited and encouraged activities, and three supportive systems [4] - Key sectors such as electricity, transportation, technology, and data will be prioritized for market unification [4]

国新办1月20日举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局有关情 况。国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在会上表示，坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，加快构建现 代化产业体系。要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用，研究设立国家级并购基金，加强政府投资基 金布局规划和投向指导，促进创新创业创造，加快培育和发展新质生产力。 着力打通供需循环卡点堵点 "要坚持把宏观政策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求。"王昌林表示，重点是要适 应需求升级的趋势，结合新一轮科技革命和产业变革的需要，研究制定出台2026-2030年扩大内需战略 实施方案，为以新需求引领新供给、以新供给创造新需求提供强有力的创新举措和要素保障，努力实现 供需互促、循环升级。 提升消费者收入是提振内需的重要方面。国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈说，要把惠民生和促 消费紧密结合，目前有关方面正在研究制定稳岗扩容提质行动和城乡居民增收计划，目的就是增强居民 的消费能力，优化消费供给。将深入实施提振消费专项行动，打造一批带动面广、显示度高的消费新场 景。此外，将推动实施服务业扩能提质行动，推出一批具有含金量的政策， ...