Core Viewpoint - Shennong Group reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily driven by rising pig prices and reduced breeding costs [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Shennong Group achieved an operating income of approximately 5.584 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.51% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 687 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 271.16% [3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was approximately 697 million yuan, up 275.62% year-on-year [3]. - Total assets reached around 6.655 billion yuan, a 16.66% increase from the end of 2023 [3]. - The net assets attributable to the parent company were about 4.833 billion yuan, growing by 15.19% compared to the end of 2023 [3]. Business Segments - Revenue from pig products in 2024 was approximately 3.798 billion yuan, an increase of 81.53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.42%, up 20.81% [5][8]. - The company sold a total of 2.2715 million pigs in 2024, marking a 49.40% increase year-on-year [5]. - The feed business generated significant revenue, with a total of 600,500 tons sold, of which 68,900 tons were for export [10]. Cost Management - The breeding cost in January 2024 was below 14 yuan per kilogram, with a total cost of approximately 14.6 yuan per kilogram [5]. - By February 2025, the company aims to reduce the total cost to 12 yuan per kilogram, down from 13.2 yuan per kilogram in December 2024 [6][5]. - Specific cost reductions included a decrease of about 0.4 yuan per kilogram in feed costs and 0.2 yuan per kilogram in livestock costs [5]. Strategic Focus - Shennong Group is committed to a full industry chain development strategy in pig farming, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement through various measures [5][2]. - The company plans to enhance feed formulation research to improve nutritional content and economic benefits, supporting both its breeding segment and end customers [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The agriculture sector's public fund heavy holdings have decreased in Q1 2025, but there is an expectation for a rebound in Q2 2025 due to enhanced investment logic driven by the US-China tariff escalation [4][13] - The livestock sector shows low valuation recovery potential, while the pet sector's domestic brand growth logic continues to strengthen [6][22][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In Q1 2025, the public fund heavy holdings in the agriculture sector decreased, with total market value dropping to 12,367 billion yuan, a 0.40% decrease quarter-on-quarter, and accounting for 1.69% of the A-share market [4][13] - The heavy holdings in the agriculture sector represented 0.40% of the total public fund stock investment, down from 0.44% in Q4 2023 [4][13] Weekly Insights - The low valuation of the pig sector presents a buying opportunity, supported by a recovery in consumption and macro policies [22] - The feed sector benefits from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [22] Market Performance (April 21-25) - The agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.72 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.56% while the agriculture index fell by 0.16% [25][29] - The pet food sector led the gains, with individual stocks like Zhongchong Co. and Guibao Pet rising significantly [25][31] Price Tracking (April 21-25) - The average price of live pigs was 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of white strip meat increased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 19.31 yuan/kg [36] - The average price of beef rose to 68.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.84% increase [36][43] Key News (April 21-25) - The number of breeding sows at the end of Q1 2025 was 40.39 million, a 1.0% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 1.2% increase year-on-year, indicating stable production capacity [33]

注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化 而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金 业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华鑫证券指出，2025年2月以来，全国生猪出栏价回落至14元/公斤区间并持续震荡，主要受10个月 前能繁母猪产能变动影响。尽管2024年5月行业进入增产阶段，但产能绝对值仍处低位，因规模场资金 紧张扩产谨慎，散户产能退出或转向育肥。预计2025年猪价将呈现"淡季不淡、旺季不旺"的弱周期走 势，行业分化加剧，成本领先企业将保持盈利。 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪中证畜牧指数（代码：930707），选取沪深市场中涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽养 殖、畜禽疫苗和肉 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [87]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index decreased by 2.15% this week, while the overall market indices showed mixed performance, with the agricultural sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [12][13]. - New Zealand's beef prices are expected to rise due to increasing global beef prices, benefiting local exporters [3][23]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a supply pressure with a potential for price declines, but the overall sentiment is stabilizing after previous pessimism [4][41]. - Poultry prices are showing signs of recovery, particularly for white feather chickens, as consumer demand gradually improves [5][57]. - The dairy and beef sectors are anticipated to see a recovery in prices as supply constraints develop [66]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2612.71 points, down 2.15% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19% [12][13]. - The top-performing sectors this week were banking and real estate, while agriculture ranked lower [13]. 2. New Zealand Beef Market - New Zealand's beef industry is heavily export-oriented, with over 90% of beef produced being exported [3][23]. - The beef production in New Zealand for 2024 is projected at 694,300 tons, a decrease of 3.89% year-on-year, with exports expected to follow a similar trend [23]. 3. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.57 kg, indicating a high level compared to historical data [4][40]. - The current price for pigs is 14.97 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.11% [39]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector is at a valuation bottom, with potential for recovery if supply constraints are managed [41][42]. 4. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens has increased to 7.50 CNY/kg, up 2.18% from the previous week [57]. - The poultry sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer demand and a potential increase in high-end product consumption [5][57]. 5. Dairy and Beef Industry - The dairy sector is facing a reduction in production capacity, which may lead to price stabilization in the latter half of 2025 [66]. - The report highlights a potential upward trend in beef prices as supply constraints are expected to tighten [66]. 6. Planting Industry - The report notes fluctuations in grain prices, with corn prices at 2,204.29 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase [66]. - The planting sector is expected to stabilize as domestic agricultural policies are implemented [68]. 7. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have remained stable, with pig feed priced at 3.35 CNY/kg [77]. - Aquaculture prices are also stable, with no significant changes reported in major fish species [77].

从发行规模来看，牧原股份该次发行的H股股数不超过发行后公司总股本的8%（超额配售权行使 前），并授予整体协调人不超过前述发行的H股股数15%的超额配售权。最终发行数量、发行比例由股 东大会授权董事会及其授权人士根据法律规定、境内外监管机构批准或备案及市场情况确定。 根据公开资料，作为国内生猪养殖巨头，牧原股份始创于1992年，于2014年在深交所上市，现已形成集 饲料加工、生猪育种、生猪养殖、屠宰加工为一体的猪肉产业链，居国内养猪上市公司之首。Wind数 据显示，自2014年上市以来，其累计实现净利润735.41亿元。 2024年，牧原股份也交出了一份表现良好的财报。去年共实现营收1379.47亿元，同比增加24.43%；归 母净利润178.81亿元，较上年亏损41.68亿元实现扭亏为盈，增幅高达519.42%。对此，牧原股份表示， 主要原因为报告期内公司生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较上年同期上升，且生猪养殖成本较上年同期下 降。 （文/朱道义 编辑/张广凯） 在港股IPO市场持续活跃、"A+H"上市模式不断升温的背景下，养猪行业的A股巨头，也启动了港股上 市计划。 4月15日晚间，牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称 ...

Market Overview - In March 2025, China's retail sales (社零) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a total retail sales amounting to 4.09 trillion yuan [4][5] - The consumer confidence index in February 2025 was 88.4, marking a continuous increase for three months [4][5] - Online retail channels outperformed overall retail sales, with physical stores showing weaker performance [4] Industry Insights - The sports and leisure goods sector saw a robust year-on-year growth of 25.4% in retail sales for Q1 2025, indicating strong demand resilience [4] - The jewelry sector experienced a significant year-on-year growth of 10.6% in March 2025, with gold prices rising by 37.4% [4][7] - The textile and apparel sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.6% in March 2025, with online channels expected to underperform compared to offline channels [4][7] Company Analysis Q1 2025 Performance - New Hope Group and other pig farming stocks are recommended due to the anticipated recovery in the pig farming industry, which is expected to enter a profit cycle starting from Q2 2024 [11] - The company "启明星辰" reported a decline in revenue due to weak downstream demand, but is focusing on strategic collaborations with China Mobile to enhance its market position [14][17] - "新和成" achieved a revenue of 21.61 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.95%, driven by strong performance in its nutrition products segment [20][22] Future Projections - "新和成" is projected to achieve revenues of 23.94 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.8% [22] - "启明星辰" expects a net profit growth of 40.9% to 38.8% from 2025 to 2027, supported by expanding its product offerings and market reach [15][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued apparel companies such as 森马服饰 and 锦泓集团, as well as home textile companies benefiting from government subsidies [5] - In the textile manufacturing sector, companies like 华利集团 and 申洲国际 are recommended for their potential market share gains amid changing industry dynamics [7] - The jewelry sector is expected to see a recovery in demand and performance in Q2 2025, with companies like 潮宏基 and 周大生 highlighted for investment [7]

Summary of Conference Call on Shennong Group Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focused on Shennong Group, a player in the pig farming sector within the broader agricultural industry [1][2] - The discussion highlighted the recent report released by Guohai Securities on Shennong Group, coinciding with a rise in the company's stock price [1] Key Points and Arguments Investment Recommendations - The investment recommendation for the pig farming sector is based on three perspectives: fundamentals, market conditions, and capital allocation [2] - The second half of the year is viewed as a favorable time for investment in the pig farming sector, particularly due to expected capacity reductions [2] - Key recommended companies include leading players like Muyuan and Wens, with Shennong and Juxing as secondary recommendations [2] Shennong Group's Competitive Advantages - Shennong Group's expansion strategy is characterized by low costs and low debt, which are seen as significant advantages [3] - The company’s pig output is projected to grow from 1.52 million heads in 2023 to approximately 3.3 million heads by 2025, indicating a growth rate of 51% from 2021 to 2024 [3][4] - The company's cost of production is among the lowest in the industry, with a complete cost of 12.4 RMB per kg expected by February 2025, down from 16 RMB in 2023 [4][10] Financial Health - Shennong Group's debt-to-asset ratio is below 30%, indicating strong financial health [5] - The concentration of output among the top 20 companies in the industry has reached 30%, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [5][16] Market Dynamics and Trends - The pig farming industry is experiencing a trend of weakening profitability, with a potential turning point for capacity reductions expected in the second half of the year [5][16] - The industry has seen a significant increase in concentration due to challenges posed by African swine fever, which has raised barriers to entry [15][16] Operational Insights - Shennong Group's slaughtering operations are profitable and less affected by market price fluctuations, maintaining a steady cash flow [6] - The company’s farming operations are concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong, with Yunnan being the core area [7][8] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve an output of 320,000 to 350,000 heads by the end of 2025, with a focus on a model that increasingly relies on contract farming [8][9] - The cost structure indicates that feed costs, which account for nearly 60% of production costs, may rise in the latter half of the year, but the company is still expected to remain profitable [10] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is that the pig farming sector remains a viable investment opportunity, with Shennong Group positioned favorably due to its low-cost structure and strong financial health [17] - The call concluded with an invitation for further inquiries regarding the report and the company's performance [17]

答：您好，公司关注同行业友商的发展，保持开放的心态，向优秀的企业学习经验，努力做好自身经营管 理，与友商共同推动行业高质量发展。谢谢！ 问：现在应该没有像 2019年那种大的猪周期了吗？现在的猪周期应该是窄幅区间震荡，国家通过调控控 制母猪能繁数据，调整猪肉供给 答：您好，作为行业参与者，公司始终敬畏周期、理解周期、接纳周期，不把精力放在研判未来趋势上， 而是专注自身经营管理，坚持稳健、连续生产，持续开拓创新以提升生产效率，建立成本优势以应对外部 市场环境带来的挑战，保证公司经营业绩的长期稳定向好。谢谢！ 问：秦总好，公司生猪销售市占率已经较高，其他猪企在资本的助力下短期内也不会退出市场，请问牧原 未来的增长点在哪？ 证券之星消息，2025年4月9日牧原股份（002714）发布公告称公司于2025年4月8日召开业绩说明会。 具体内容如下： 问：请问公司 1月、2月、3月的能繁母猪数量分别是多少，谢谢。 答：您好，公司会在每季度末的销售简报中披露当期能繁母猪数量。截至 2025年 3月末，公司能繁母猪存 栏为 348.5万头。谢谢！ 问：请问秦董事长，业界您最尊重的竞争对手是哪一家企业？ 答：您好，公司会保持稳 ...

External Logic - The recent increase in tariffs by the US has led to a significant rise in agricultural prices, with the agricultural sector acting as a countermeasure to the tariffs [1][3] - The Wind反关税指数 surged by 11% on April 8, 2025, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors making up the majority of this index [1] Internal Logic - The supply-demand dynamics in the livestock sector are expected to improve, particularly due to the ongoing "pig cycle," which indicates a cyclical change in pig prices [5] - As of February 2025, the number of breeding sows in China has decreased by nearly 7% since early 2023, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [5][7] Policy Perspective - The "Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power Plan (2024-2035)" outlines a comprehensive strategy to enhance food security and modernize agricultural practices, with significant progress expected by 2027 [7] Profitability - The recovery in pig prices has positively impacted the financial performance of livestock companies, with牧原股份 reporting a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [8] - Other companies in the sector, such as温氏股份 and巨星农牧, have also seen substantial growth in net profits [9] Institutional Insights - According to开源证券, the tariff escalation is expected to benefit domestic agricultural prices, particularly pig prices, due to rising raw material costs and the impact of imported meat [11] - Long江证券 suggests that while the industry may be entering a phase of declining prices due to increased supply, the current low valuations present investment opportunities [11] ETF Overview - The畜牧养殖ETF (516670) closely tracks the中证畜牧养殖指数, which covers over 60% of the pig farming industry chain, including upstream and downstream components such as vaccines and feed [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pressure on CPI due to insufficient consumer demand, predicting a low CPI in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rebound expected in Q4 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: CPI Core Parameters - Parameter 1: Food - Pork and beef are expected to face downward price pressure in 2025, with pork prices projected to drop from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 to around 15 CNY/kg, shifting from a positive to a negative contribution to CPI [2]. - Parameter 2: Oil - Oil prices are under downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases and a weakening U.S. economy, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall to the range of 70-75 USD/barrel in 2025, negatively impacting CPI [3]. - Parameter 3: Core Goods - The "old-for-new" policy is not expected to suppress core goods CPI, which is anticipated to rise moderately supported by further consumption promotion policies [4]. - Parameter 4: Core Services - The stabilization of rental prices is crucial, as rental prices have negatively impacted CPI since 2022, with a projected drag of approximately 0.03 percentage points in 2024 [5]. Group 2: CPI Forecasts - In a neutral scenario, the estimated CPI year-on-year averages for Q1 to Q4 of 2025 are -0.1%, -0.3%, -0.2%, and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a notable recovery in Q4 [6]. Group 3: Macro Economic Tracking - Recent PMI data shows a recovery compared to the previous month, but remains below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment, while non-manufacturing sectors have also seen a decrease [7].