（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（12月19日），美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨2.76个基点报3.483%，3年 期美债收益率涨3.05个基点报3.528%，5年期美债收益率涨2.99个基点报3.692%，10年期美债收益率涨 2.74个基点报4.147%，30年期美债收益率涨2.13个基点报4.824%。 ...

格隆汇12月20日｜周五（12月19日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨2.74个基点，报4.1490%，本 周累计下跌3.50%。两年期美债收益率涨2.34个基点，报3.4834%，本周累跌3.88个基点；30年期美债收 益率涨2.43个基点，报4.8272%，本周累跌1.73个基点。2/10年期美债收益率利差涨0.401个基点，报 +66.356个基点，本周累涨0.377个基点。10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率涨3.40个基点，至 1.8902%，本周累涨0.45个基点；两年期TIPS收益率涨0.66个基点，至1.1618%，本周累涨5.10个基点； 30年期TIPS收益率涨3.09个基点，至2.6134%，本周累涨1.00个基点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.42%, the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 5.05%, the main contract of platinum increased by 7%, and the main contract of palladium climbed 6.99%. [1] - In the short - term, the hedging demand from trade wars has subsided, but geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment situation has weakened, and inflation is moderate, causing the expectation of interest rate cuts to slow down. [1] - After the US and Europe consider providing security protection to Ukraine after a cease - fire, the German Chancellor stated that military action against the Russian army could be taken if necessary. Consensus has been announced from the Sino - US economic and trade consultations. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and other regions still remain. [1] - In November, the US employment rebounded more than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a four - year high. The Fed cut the interest rate amidst various disagreements, hinting at a suspension of action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. Powell pointed out that the Fed's interest rate policy is in a good position to handle future economic trends, but he refused to provide guidance on whether there will be another interest rate cut in the near future. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak while silver will be strong, and platinum and palladium will rise; in the medium - term, they will oscillate at a high level; in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step. [1] - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is advisable to sell high and buy low. It is suggested to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Data - **International prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract was $4332.20 per ounce, down $2.10 (-0.05%) from the previous day and up $95.60 (2.26%) from the previous week. The price of London gold was $4324.20 per ounce, up $8.35 (0.19%) from the previous day and up $126.20 (3.01%) from the previous week. [2] - **Domestic prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 979.72 yuan per gram, up 8.30 yuan (0.85%) from the previous day and up 23.32 yuan (2.44%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 972.93 yuan per gram, up 8.26 yuan (0.86%) from the previous day and up 21.80 yuan (2.29%) from the previous week. [2] - **Basis, spreads, and ratios**: The difference between the Shanghai gold main contract and London gold was - 7.43 yuan per gram, up 8.74 yuan (-54%) from the previous day and up 3.18 yuan (-30%) from the previous week. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 6.79 yuan per gram, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day and down 1.52 yuan from the previous week. The gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 67.70, down 2.28 (-3.26%) from the previous day and down 4.21 (-5.86%) from the previous week. The gold - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.08, up 0.06 (0.78%) from the previous day and up 0.13 (1.63%) from the previous week. The gold - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 78.67, up 2.20 (2.87%) from the previous day and up 6.11 (8.42%) from the previous week. [2] - **Positions**: The position of Comex gold was 432,946 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The position of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 197,105 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 899 lots (0.46%) from the previous day and up 4,446 lots (2.31%) from the previous week. The position of gold TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 45,964 lots (1 kilogram per lot), down 1,736 lots (-0.79%) from the previous day and up 16,318 lots (8.13%) from the previous week. [2] - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The Shanghai gold inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18 tons, unchanged from the previous day, up 1.57% from the previous day, and up 1.32% from the previous week. [2] - **CFTC managed - fund net positions**: The weekly position of asset management institutions was 107,976 lots, with an increase of 11,291 lots compared to the previous week. [2] - **Gold ETF**: The SPDR gold ETF was 952.53 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 3.15 tons (-0.33%) from the previous week. [2] - **Futures warehouse receipts**: The registered warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 18 tons, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.38% from the previous week. [2] Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies' Members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - **Long positions**: The total long positions of the top 5 members were 80,129 lots, an increase of 2,211 lots (23.17%); the total long positions of the top 10 members were 115,253 lots, an increase of 2,264 lots (33.33%); the total long positions of the top 20 members were 151,017 lots, an increase of 3,649 lots (43.67%). [3] - **Short positions**: The total short positions of the top 5 members were 10,555 lots, a decrease of 500 lots (3.05%); the total short positions of the top 10 members were 13,468 lots, a decrease of 519 lots (3.89%); the total short positions of the top 20 members were 14,364 lots, a decrease of 534 lots (4.15%). [3] Silver Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is advisable to sell high and buy low. It is suggested to manage positions well and strictly set stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Data - **International prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract was $64.13 per ounce, up $2.04 (3.29%) from the previous day and up $5.63 (9.62%) from the previous week. The price of London silver was $63.87 per ounce, down $0.64 (-0.99%) from the previous day and up $5.50 (9.41%) from the previous week. [6] - **Domestic prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 15,512 yuan per kilogram, up 846 yuan (5.77%) from the previous day and up 1,139 yuan (7.92%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 15,455 yuan per kilogram, up 806 yuan (5.50%) from the previous day and up 1,078 yuan (7.50%) from the previous week. [6] - **Basis and spreads**: The difference between the Shanghai silver main contract and London silver was 1,058.46 yuan per gram, up 990.83 yuan (1465.09%) from the previous day and down 63.02 yuan (-5.62%) from the previous week. The basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 57 yuan per kilogram, down 40 yuan from the previous day and down 61 yuan from the previous week. [6] - **Positions**: The position of Comex silver was 144,541 lots (5000 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The position of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,834,910 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 373,980 lots (6.85%) from the previous day and down 923,445 lots (-13.66%) from the previous week. The position of silver TD on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 3,762,134 lots (1 kilogram per lot), up 35,016 lots (0.94%) from the previous day and down 71,616 lots (-1.87%) from the previous week. [6] - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory was 27,186 tons, an increase of 932 tons (3.55%) from the previous week. The Comex silver inventory was 14,115 tons, down 22 tons (-0.00%) from the previous day and down 61 tons (-0.43%) from the previous week. The Shanghai silver inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 912 tons, an increase of 170 tons (22.93%) from the previous week. The silver inventory on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 714 tons, an increase of 21 tons (3.04%) from the previous week. The total explicit inventory was 42,836 tons, down 22 tons (-0.05%) from the previous day and up 93 tons (0.22%) from the previous week. [6] - **CFTC managed - fund net positions**: The weekly position of asset management institutions was 20,127 lots, a decrease of 806 lots compared to the previous week. [6] - **Silver ETF**: The iShare silver ETF was 16,018.29 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 64.87 tons (-0.40%) from the previous week. [6] - **Futures warehouse receipts**: The registered warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 820,921 kilograms, an increase of 132,965 kilograms (19.33%) from the previous week. [6] Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies' Members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - **Long positions**: The total long positions of the top 5 members were 126,825 lots, an increase of 11,877 lots (15.88%); the total long positions of the top 10 members were 172,346 lots, an increase of 26,401 lots (21.58%); the total long positions of the top 20 members were 212,404 lots, an increase of 29,129 lots (26.59%). [7] - **Short positions**: The total short positions of the top 5 members were 51,487 lots, an increase of 6,995 lots (6.45%); the total short positions of the top 10 members were 81,083 lots, an increase of 12,039 lots (10.15%); the total short positions of the top 20 members were 100,625 lots, an increase of 16,277 lots (12.60%). [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value; the discount rate was 3.75%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value; the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value; the Fed's total assets were $6,590.319 billion, an increase of $4.134 billion (0.00%) compared to the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) was 4.65%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared to the previous value. [8] - **US Treasury yields and related spreads**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.52%, down 0.02 (-0.79%) from the previous day and up 0.01 (0.40%) from the previous week; the US dollar index was 98.22, down 0.06 (-0.06%) from the previous day and down 1.02 (-1.03%) from the previous week; the US Treasury spread (3 - month to 10 - year) was 0.16, up 0.02 (14.29%) from the previous day and up 0.04 (25.00%) from the previous week; the US Treasury spread (2 - year to 10 - year) was - 0.51, up 0.05 (-8.93%) from the previous day and up 0.06 (13.33%) from the previous week; the US - Europe spread (10 - year bond yield) was 1.61, down 0.03 (-1.83%) from the previous day and up 1.61 (100.00%) from the previous week; the US - China spread (10 - year bond yield) was 2.90, down 0.03 (-0.98%) from the previous day and down 0.00 (-0.17%) from the previous week. [8][10] - **US inflation**: CPI (year - on - year) was 3.00%, unchanged; CPI (month - on - month) was 0.30%, unchanged; core CPI (year - on - year) was 3.00%, unchanged; core CPI (month - on - month) was 0.30%, unchanged; PCE price index (year - on - year) was 2.79%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; core PCE price index (year - on - year) was 2.83%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 4.10%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points; the 5 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.20%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points. [10] - **US economic growth**: GDP (annualized year - on - year) was 2.00%, a decrease of 0.30 percentage points; GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) was 3.80%, an increase of 4.40 percentage points. [10] - **US labor market**: The unemployment rate was 4.60%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points; the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 6.40 million, an increase of 1.69 million; the labor participation rate was 62.40%, unchanged; the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.50%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points; the weekly working hours were 34.30 hours, an increase of 0.10 hours; ADP employment was - 3.20 million, a decrease of 7.90 million; the initial jobless claims for the week were 23.60 million, an increase of 4.40 million; the number of job openings was 8.179 million, an increase of 0.502 million; the number of Challenger corporate layoffs was 7.13 million, a decrease of 8.18 million. [10] - **US real estate market**: The

美经济成色数据趋弱 贵金属高位震荡 市场分析 美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至 4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。另外，10月非农就业大幅减少10.5万人，远超预期的下降2.5万人；8月和9月也 合计下修3.3万人。11月平均时薪同比增长3.5%，为2021年5月以来最低增速。整体看，就业市场数据巩固了美联储 继续宽松的货币政策路径。经济成色方面，美国12月标普全球制造业PMI初值下滑至51.8，创5个月新低。服务业 PMI初值则从54.1下滑至52.9，综合PMI初值下滑至53，均录得6个月新低。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-16，沪金主力合约开于983.34元/克，收于971.42元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-1.19%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于972.50元/克，收于974.22元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.29%。 2025-12-16，沪银主力合约开于14944.00元/千克，收于14666.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.86%。当日成交 量为1571 ...

具体走势上，金价自亚市微幅低开于4299.43美元/盎司，随即反弹走强，之后于亚盘尾及欧盘时段陷入 盘整，并录得日内高点4350.26美元，就此美盘开盘后，空头开始发力，连续回落走低，于次日0点时段 录得日内低点4285.51美元，最终有所止跌触底回升，收于4305.14美元，日振幅64.75美元，相对于上周 五收盘价4301.15美元，收涨3.99美元，涨幅0.093%。 12月16日：上交易日周一（12月15日）：国际黄金再度收取长上影线倒垂见顶看空形态，暗示短期走势 偏向震荡或回落走低调整的预期发展，但长线前景及方向仍看涨上行不变，要么等待调整回踩中轨等支 撑再度看涨攀升，要么突破新高持稳收线顺势跟进。 影响上，日内白盘因美元走弱及美债收益率下滑，黄金盘中一度触及4350美元上方，但仍未能站稳此 处，受到美国官员与乌克兰总统泽连斯基围绕结束战争的重要会谈取得的进展，显著降低了市场的避险 需求，再加上美联储主席候选人博弈加剧，哈塞特面临特朗普身边高层反对，减弱了未来更加宽松政策 的预期前景，使得投资者获利了结，打压金价回撤倒垂收线。 展望今日周二（12月16日）：国际黄金亚市早盘先行窄幅偏弱盘整，受到昨日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in U.S. Treasury yields, highlighting a decline in the 10-year yield and variations in other maturities, indicating market reactions to economic conditions and inflation expectations [1]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.78 basis points, closing at 4.1763% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 2.07 basis points, settling at 3.5015% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 0.31 basis points, reaching 4.8476% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread and Inflation-Linked Securities - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries widened by 1.278 basis points, now at +67.257 basis points [1] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield rose by 1.08 basis points, to just below 1.8965% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield increased by 1.64 basis points, reaching 1.1272% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield saw a rise of 1.47 basis points, now at 2.6180% [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周一（12月15日），美债收益率涨跌不一，3年期美债收益率跌2.21个基点报3.555%，5年 期美债收益率跌1.39个基点报3.724%。 ...

荷兰合作银行认为由于中期选举的政治压力以及美联储人事格局的变动，美联储在2026年的降息幅度或将超出市场预 期。 12月12日，荷兰合作银行资深策略师Philip Marey指出，为了配合在美国中期选举前刺激经济，美联储预计将在2026年11 月前将利率降至中性水平甚至更低，联邦基金利率目标区间在2026年9月达到2.75%-3.00%。而当前为3.50%-3.75%。 新任主席将于2026年6月17-18日首次主持FOMC会议，荷兰合作银行预计该次会议将宣布降息，以确立新主席对美国白 宫的忠诚度。 | FOMC meeting | Target range (%) | Size of change (bps) | | --- | --- | --- | | January 27-28 | 3.50-3.75 | 0 | | March 17-18 | 3.25-3.50 | -25 | | April 28-29 | 3.25-3.50 | 0 | | June 16-17 | 3.00-3.25 | -25 | | July 28-29 | 3.00-3.25 | 0 | | September 15-1 ...

美国银行认为美联储购买短期美债的操作可能对长期收益率形成抑制作用。 美联储利率决议后，Mark Cabana领导的美国银行策略师团队在报告中指出，美联储的储备管理购债计划RMP将在未来一年吸收大部分短债净 供应，这迫使美国财政部重新考虑如何满足日益增长的借贷需求。 结合每月约150亿美元的MBS再投资，美联储2026年在二级市场的购买总量将达4900亿美元。这将导致明年的短期美债净发行量仅为2740亿美 元。 美银认为，美国财政部在短债发行规模上的决策将直接影响长期债券的供应量。如果财政部选择增发更多短债以弥补美联储的购买，长期债券 供应可能相应减少，从而对基准十年期美债收益率形成下行压力。 美国银行策略师团队估算，这种"更有利于久期的供需环境"可能使十年期美债收益率较原本水平低20至30个基点。该影响取决于美国财政部是 否进一步推迟增加长期美债发行，以及是否更多依赖短期融资工具。 美银预计美国财政部将从2027年2月开始增加部分长期债务月度拍卖的规模，华尔街普遍认同这一观点。本周美债涨跌互现，长期美债收益率 普遍走高，10年期上行近3基点。 （本周美债主要期限收益率走势） 华尔街大幅上调购债预期 华尔街见闻 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - US employment data fell short of expectations, leading to a continued decline in the US dollar index, which closed down 0.60% at 98.65 [1][5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.1610%, while the 2-year yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, closed at 3.5510% [1][5] - Initial jobless claims in the US reached the largest weekly increase since the pandemic [1][5] Group 2: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold reached its highest level in over a month, closing up 1.21% at $4279.89 per ounce [1][5] - The gold market opened at $4229.6 per ounce, peaked at $4286.3, and closed at $4281, indicating a bullish trend [6] - The market is expected to focus on resistance levels between $4285 and $4310, with support levels between $4262 and $4240 [6] Group 3: Silver Market Performance - Spot silver reached a historic high, closing up 3% at $63.57 per ounce [1][5] Group 4: Nasdaq Performance - The Nasdaq opened at $25751.35, fluctuated between a low of $25353.31 and a high of $25836.31, and closed at $25807.2 [3][7] - The Nasdaq is maintaining a high-level oscillation, with potential for breaking its current range [3][7]