Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 3.37 basis points, closing at 4.3440%, with intraday trading between 4.3957% and 4.3262% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 2.74 basis points, ending at 3.8334%, with a trading range of 3.8693% to 3.8207% [1] - The yields on other maturities also declined, with the 20-year yield down by 3.33 basis points and the 30-year yield down by 2.67 basis points [2] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield decreased by 0.99 basis points, settling at 1.9320% [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that there is no reason for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to step down, as his term runs until May 2026 [3]

美债收益率持续走低，两年期收益率跌至3.84%，创7月3日以来新低。 ...

美债收益率继续走低，2年期收益率降至3.84%，为7月3日以来的最低水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise to 4.8%-5.0% in the second half of 2025 due to increased net supply and other economic factors [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Recent data indicates that while the U.S. dollar has rebounded, short-term depreciation pressure has not been fully released [1] - The CBO estimates that the "Great Beautiful Act" will increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034 [1] - Following the resolution of U.S. debt issues, net issuance of debt may reach around $1.25 trillion between July and September, contributing to upward pressure on Treasury yields [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The U.S. dollar experienced a 13% depreciation during its lowest point this year, which is not particularly significant compared to historical depreciation cycles since 2000 [1] - The report anticipates that the increase in net supply of U.S. Treasuries will lead to a rise in the term premium by 50-60 basis points [1] - It is projected that the U.S. dollar index may decline by 2-3 points as a result of these economic dynamics [1]

Group 1 - US Treasury yields mostly declined on July 21, with the 2-year yield down 3 basis points to 3.85%, the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.38%, and the 30-year yield down over 6 basis points to 4.94% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes narrowed to 53 basis points [1] Group 2 - The Conference Board reported a 0.3% decline in the Leading Economic Index for June, falling to 98.8, which exceeded the Dow Jones forecast of a 0.2% decrease [3] - The Conference Board does not predict a recession but expects significant economic growth slowdown in 2025 compared to 2024, with a projected 1.6% growth in real GDP for this year [3] - Investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech scheduled for Tuesday, as other Fed officials remain silent ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting [3] Group 3 - The US Treasury issued $155 billion in two bond offerings on July 21, including $82 billion in 13-week bills and $73 billion in 26-week bills, with an additional $80 billion in 6-week bills scheduled for issuance on Tuesday [5]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell were to be removed, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds could jump by 50 basis points [1] Group 1 - The potential removal of Jerome Powell could lead to significant market reactions, particularly in the bond market [1]

摘要周一（7月21日），上周五，受美联储理事沃勒的鸽派言论以及消费者通胀预期降温的影响，美元 指数回落，最终收跌0.155%，报98.46。得益于美元和美债收益率走软，现货黄金上涨，最高触及 3361.2美元/盎司，最终收涨0.34%，收报3350.4美元/盎司；现货白银连涨三日，最终收涨0.14%，报38.2 美元/盎司。 据知情人士透露，自上周华盛顿谈判以来，各方努力尚未取得持续进展。谈判将在未来两周继续进行。 【交易思路】 现货白银：下方关注38.00美元或37.80美元支撑；上方关注38.40美元或38.65美元阻力。 周一（7月21日），上周五，受美联储理事沃勒的鸽派言论以及消费者通胀预期降温的影响，美元指数 回落，最终收跌0.155%，报98.46。得益于美元和美债收益率走软，现货黄金上涨，最高触及3361.2美 元/盎司，最终收涨0.34%，收报3350.4美元/盎司；现货白银连涨三日，最终收涨0.14%，报38.2美元/盎 司。 【要闻汇总】 据报道称，欧盟特使最早将于本周召开会议，针对可能与美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)陷入的无协议 局面制定应对措施。在8月1日最后期限临近之际， ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements with the 10-year yield declining slightly while the 20-year and 30-year yields increased, indicating fluctuations in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Summary by Relevant Categories 10-Year Treasury Yield - The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell by 3.58 basis points to 4.4155% on July 18, with a weekly increase of 0.62 basis points [1] - The yield traded within a range of 4.3915% to 4.4933% during the week, experiencing a notable short-term rally on Tuesday before gradually retreating [1] 2-Year Treasury Yield - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 3.54 basis points to 3.8691%, with a cumulative decline of 1.59 basis points for the week [1] - The yield fluctuated between 3.9587% and 3.8564% during the week, showing a significant "n-shaped" movement on Tuesday and Wednesday [1] 20-Year and 30-Year Treasury Yields - The 20-year Treasury yield increased by 3.60 basis points, reaching 4.9807% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield rose by 3.84 basis points, closing at 4.9875% [1]

两年期美债收益率涨1.28个基点，报3.9045%，北京时间20:30发布美国零售销售数据和就业市场调查周 报时涨至3.9360%刷新日高，随后快速回落并转而跌至3.8834%刷新日低，全天大部分时间交投于3.9% 上方。 周四（7月17日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌0.40个基点，报4.4513%，日内交投于 4.4874%-4.4274%区间。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is regaining attention as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing global inflation, geopolitical tensions, and an uncertain interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, with predictions of gold prices reaching $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially $4,000 in mid-2026 [1][3] Group 2 - The outlook for gold in 2025 presents both opportunities and challenges, with a significant shift from speculative to structural long-term investment, as central bank demand remains strong, with an average monthly purchase of 77 tons projected for 2025, significantly higher than the historical average of 17 tons before 2022 [3][4] - The defensive value of gold is being recognized again due to escalating geopolitical risks, as evidenced by a price rebound to $3,355 per ounce amid trade tensions [3][4] Group 3 - Investors face three pressures: a strengthening dollar due to strong labor data and persistent inflation, technical resistance in the gold price around $3,300-$3,330, and the disadvantage of non-yielding assets as high U.S. Treasury yields attract speculative funds [4] Group 4 - The analysis of trading platforms highlights the importance of compliance for fund safety and fair trading, with a focus on a specific platform that offers dual services in London gold contracts and physical gold storage, ensuring transparency and low transaction costs [4][5] Group 5 - For retail investors to profit in the gold market, a systematic trading approach is essential, including starting with low leverage, data-driven decision-making, social learning through copy trading, and defensive asset allocation of 10%-15% in physical gold [5][6] Group 6 - The gold market in 2025 is transitioning from speculation-driven to value-driven, with central bank purchases and geopolitical risks providing dual support for a long-term upward trend, making the current price range a rational window for gold allocation [6]