Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with market reactions closely tied to Chairman Powell's subsequent statements, which could influence stock, bond, and gold markets positively if dovish remarks are made [1][2][4]. Group 1: Immediate Market Reactions - The market has already priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, leading to three possible outcomes: no change, a 25 basis point cut, or a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [3]. - If the Fed maintains rates, it could lead to market confusion due to a breakdown in communication, which has historically been a strength of the Fed [3]. - A 25 basis point cut with neutral comments from Powell may not provide upward momentum for markets, as the positive impact has already been absorbed [3][6]. Group 2: Longer-Term Market Outlook - Over a longer timeframe, if the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points and the language is unremarkable, bond performance may be lackluster, while equities could gradually improve due to increased liquidity and lower corporate costs [6]. - The future performance of the U.S. economy will be critical; if the rate cut leads to economic stabilization, the Fed's future cuts may be limited. Conversely, if the economy continues to decline, more aggressive cuts may be necessary [7]. - Inflation trends, particularly influenced by tariffs, will also affect the Fed's rate decisions and market reactions [7]. Group 3: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices are expected to be in an upward cycle due to four main factors: the weakening dollar, declining U.S. real interest rates, reduced market risk appetite, and increased central bank purchases of gold [9][10][11]. - A weaker dollar typically leads to higher gold prices, as gold is dollar-denominated [10]. - If the Fed continues to lower rates while inflation remains stable, real interest rates will decline, further supporting gold prices [10]. - Geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion will increase demand for gold, pushing prices higher [10]. - Central banks, including China's, are actively increasing gold reserves, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [11].

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研究报告称，8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议的讲话被市场视为货币转松的 "鸽派"信号。不宜 过度往过于"鸽"的方面解读鲍威尔的言论，其鸽派发言更多是对于近期非农数据下修的"条件式回应"，并不能构成对于年内降息次数和幅度的有 效保障。即便美联储于9月降息25个基点，也不代表这将是一系列货币宽松的起点。相反，在就业与通胀风险并存，政策目标矛盾的情况下，更 需要充分认识到美联储面临的挑战。如果经济"类滞胀"导致决策者首尾难顾，市场波动也将进一步加剧。 鲍威尔的意思是，在就业风险大于通胀时，美联储将倾向降息。但如果通胀风险超越就业，那么美联储仍可以使用同样的"反应函数"叫停降息。 中金公司认为后一种情况并非不可能：当前美国面临显著更高的关税和收紧的移民政策，这两类政策均有抑制供给和推高价格的效果，只不过 目前的影响还较为温和。如果后续通胀率的上升使其进一步偏离美联储2%的通胀目标，那么暂停降息将是更加合适的选择。 中金公司认为，在显著更高的关税税率与收紧的移民政策之下，就业与通胀风险并存，如果通胀风险超越就业，鲍威尔仍可以使用同样的"反应 函数"叫停降息。由此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Ringgit experienced its largest increase since early August, influenced by dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole [1] Currency Movement - The USD/MYR exchange rate fell by 0.6% to 4.20, marking the most significant decline since August 4 [1]

摘要周一（7月21日），上周五，受美联储理事沃勒的鸽派言论以及消费者通胀预期降温的影响，美元 指数回落，最终收跌0.155%，报98.46。得益于美元和美债收益率走软，现货黄金上涨，最高触及 3361.2美元/盎司，最终收涨0.34%，收报3350.4美元/盎司；现货白银连涨三日，最终收涨0.14%，报38.2 美元/盎司。 据知情人士透露，自上周华盛顿谈判以来，各方努力尚未取得持续进展。谈判将在未来两周继续进行。 【交易思路】 现货白银：下方关注38.00美元或37.80美元支撑；上方关注38.40美元或38.65美元阻力。 周一（7月21日），上周五，受美联储理事沃勒的鸽派言论以及消费者通胀预期降温的影响，美元指数 回落，最终收跌0.155%，报98.46。得益于美元和美债收益率走软，现货黄金上涨，最高触及3361.2美 元/盎司，最终收涨0.34%，收报3350.4美元/盎司；现货白银连涨三日，最终收涨0.14%，报38.2美元/盎 司。 【要闻汇总】 据报道称，欧盟特使最早将于本周召开会议，针对可能与美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)陷入的无协议 局面制定应对措施。在8月1日最后期限临近之际， ...