美联储的降息路径正面临巨大不确定性。 集体拉升 北京时间11月20日晚间，美国劳工统计局发布的报告显示，美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，大幅超出市 场预估的5.2万人，前值为增加2.2万人；美国9月失业率为4.4%，创下2021年10月以来的最高水平，略高于市 场预估的4.3%，前值为4.3%。 今晚，美国劳工统计局发布的就业报告显示，美国9月新增就业岗位数量远超市场预期；美国9月失业率为 4.4%，创下2021年10月以来的最高水平。利率互换市场继续显示，美联储12月降息的可能性不大。最新经济 数据出炉后，交易员加大了对美联储降息的押注，但仍预计美联储将在12月暂停降息。 数据公布后，美股期货集体拉升，截至北京时间22:00，道琼斯指数期货涨幅扩大至1%，标普500指数期货涨 1.6%，纳斯达克100指数期货大涨超2%。美股恐慌指数VIX下跌3.52点，至20.14点。 与此同时，美联储内部分歧正在加大。据美联储最新披露的会议纪要，"若干"美联储官员表示12月降息"很可 能"是合适的，但"很多"官员认为12月降息可能并不合适，进一步降息可能会加剧通胀风险。 报告显示，美国9月平均每小时工资同比增长3. ...

非农数据公布后，现货黄金短线一度下挫近20美元，现报4075美元/盎司，截至21:48发稿，现 货黄金回升至4094美元/盎司，收复非农后的跌幅。美股期货拉升，道琼斯指数期货涨 0.80%，标普500指数期货涨1.49%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨2.02%。 记者丨吴斌 编辑丨包芳鸣 "鹰派大战"中美联储内部本就分歧重重，如今又遇到了新难题。 在"迟到48天"之后，美国劳工统计局终于在11月20日（周四）公布9月非农就业数据。数据显 示，美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，市场预估为增加5.2万人，前值为增加2.2万人。 美 国上周首次申领失业救济人数为22万人，预估为22.7万人。 美国9月失业率4.4%，高于预期 和前值4.3%，为2021年10月以来最高。 利率互换市场继续显示，美联储12月降息的可能性不大。最新经济数据出炉后，交易员加大 了对美联储降息的押注，但仍预计美联储将跳过12月降息。 芝商所美联储观察工具显示，美 联储12月降息的可能性仅约为30%。在数据迷雾下，美联储更好的选择可能是"停飞"而不 是"盲飞" 。 美联储货币政策本就踌躇不定，关键数据的缺失让未来笼罩了更深的阴霾。美国劳工统计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, particularly concerning the potential for a rate cut in December, amidst a lack of key economic data [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The October FOMC meeting minutes indicate a hawkish tilt among officials, with increasing caution towards further easing due to concerns about inflation [2]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with an almost equal number of officials supporting and opposing a rate cut in December, highlighting the uncertainty in policy direction [2][3]. - The Fed's focus on financial market stability has intensified, with concerns raised about high asset valuations and the risk of disorderly declines in stock prices [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The absence of critical employment data, such as the non-farm payroll report, has led to a more cautious outlook for the December meeting, with the probability of a rate cut dropping to around 30% [1][4]. - Recent soft data, including a decline in consumer confidence and negative ADP employment figures, suggests a weakening U.S. economy [4][6]. - The market's expectations for a December rate cut have shifted dramatically, influenced by rising inflation concerns and cautious statements from Fed officials [5]. Group 3: Employment and Inflation Outlook - The Fed is under pressure to balance its dual mandate of employment and inflation, with core inflation remaining high and labor market conditions expected to soften [6][7]. - Officials express concerns that a further decline in the labor market could lead to a significant rise in unemployment, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [6][8]. - The importance of employment data is expected to increase, with the unemployment rate becoming a critical indicator for assessing the need for further monetary stimulus [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall sales grew by 5.9% in constant currency, with adjusted operating income increasing by 8% [7][17] - E-commerce sales increased by 27%, with each segment delivering growth above 20% [7][18] - Adjusted EPS rose nearly 7% to 62 cents [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - International segment sales increased by 11.4% in constant currency, with adjusted operating income growing by 16.9% [8][22] - Walmart US comp sales grew by 4.5%, with e-commerce up by 28% [9][18] - Sam's Club US comp sales increased by 3.8%, driven by transaction counts [10][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce sales in China grew by over 30%, reflecting strong performance in digital retail [20] - Membership income increased by 17% across the enterprise, with notable growth in international markets [23][24] - Inflation in Walmart US was reported at 1.3%, with food and general merchandise seeing low single-digit increases [11][52] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging technology and AI to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [14][24] - Walmart is transitioning to NASDAQ to align with its tech-powered strategy [29] - The strategy emphasizes everyday low prices while enhancing convenience through physical and digital assets [17][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the holiday shopping season, indicating a strong start to Q4 [44][45] - There are concerns about spending moderation in lower-income cohorts, but overall business remains consistent [76][77] - The company is raising its guidance for full-year sales growth to between 4.8% and 5.1% [27][28] Other Important Information - The company reported a non-cash charge of approximately $700 million related to its PhonePe subsidiary [25] - Year-to-date operating cash flow reached $27 billion, up $4.5 billion compared to last year [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will Agentic supercharge Walmart's e-commerce growth? - Management highlighted the advantages of Walmart's broad assortment and delivery speed, emphasizing the role of technology in enhancing customer experience [35][36] Question: How is the consumer expected to perform over the holiday? - Management indicated a consistent environment with optimism for holiday shopping, despite some moderation in lower-income spending [44][45] Question: What are the constraints to Walmart Plus membership growth? - Management noted that delivery speed and customer satisfaction are key drivers, with recent improvements in delivery times contributing to membership growth [47][48] Question: How has inflation impacted pricing strategies? - Management reported low inflation rates and effective inventory management, allowing for flexibility in pricing without significant markdowns [52][53] Question: How is the company managing tariffs and their impact? - Management indicated that the impact of tariffs has been less than expected, with effective inventory and pricing strategies mitigating costs [60][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall sales grew by 5.9% in constant currency, with adjusted operating income increasing by 8% [6][17][24] - E-commerce sales increased by 27%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth above 20% [6][18][22] - Adjusted EPS rose nearly 7% to 62 cents [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Walmart International saw a sales increase of 11.4% in constant currency, with adjusted operating income growing by 16.9% [7][24] - Walmart US achieved comp sales growth of 4.5%, with e-commerce growing by 28% [9][18] - Sam's Club US reported comp sales growth of 3.8%, driven by transaction counts and digital engagement [10][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce sales for International increased by 26%, with significant contributions from Flipkart in India [8][19] - In China, e-commerce sales grew by over 30%, reflecting strong performance at Sam's Club [19] - Membership income increased by 17% across the enterprise, with notable growth in international markets [22][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging its omnichannel model and diversified profit streams to drive growth [17][24] - Investments in technology and AI are aimed at enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency [13][24] - The company plans to continue its strategy of everyday low prices while improving delivery speed and convenience [19][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to grow profits faster than sales despite economic pressures [17][28] - The consumer environment remains dynamic, with some moderation in spending observed among lower-income households [60][61] - The company is optimistic about the holiday shopping season based on early indicators from back-to-school and Halloween sales [39][60] Other Important Information - The company announced a leadership transition, with John Furner set to become CEO on February 1, 2026 [2][4] - Walmart will be moving its stock listing to NASDAQ, aligning with its tech-powered strategy [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will Agentic supercharge Walmart's e-commerce growth? - Management highlighted the advantages of Walmart's broad assortment and delivery speed, emphasizing the potential of Agentic AI to enhance customer experience [31][32] Question: What are the constraints to accelerating Walmart Plus membership growth? - Management noted that delivery speed and customer satisfaction are key drivers, with recent improvements in delivery times contributing to membership growth [40][41] Question: How is the company managing inflation and pricing strategies? - Management indicated that inflation is being managed effectively, with inventory levels well-positioned to maintain margins and minimize markdowns [44][45] Question: What is the outlook for operating leverage in Q4? - Management expressed optimism about achieving operating leverage, driven by improved supply chain efficiencies and cost management [46][47] Question: How is the company addressing tariff impacts? - Management reported less impact from tariffs than anticipated, with effective inventory and pricing strategies helping to mitigate costs [50][51]

以下文章来源于棱镜 ，作者温世君 棱镜 . 腾讯新闻出品栏目，《棱镜》聚焦泛财经深度记录。 减持清单也曝光了。 文 ｜ 温世君 编辑 ｜ 孙春芳 来源｜ 棱镜（ID：lengjing_qqfinance） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 11月12日，道琼斯工业指数冲上48431.57点的历史新高。相较于2023年初——也就是本轮美股牛市的起点，已经上涨了46%。 ChatGPT引爆的AI革命是本轮美股牛市的核心驱动力，纳斯达克指数的涨幅自然不遑多让。10月29日24019.99点的历史新高，相较2023年初翻番还要多：上 涨了131.25%。 关键的支撑来自几家数万亿市值的科技股：不到三年时间，微软、苹果股价翻番，总市值双双攀升至4万亿美元上下；谷歌（ALPHABET-A）涨幅超 200%，总市值站上3.5万亿美元大关……作为本轮美股牛市的核心旗手，英伟达的涨幅一度突破1300%，不仅成为三年13倍的超级牛股，更创下历史纪录， 成为首家总市值突破5万亿美元的公司——创始人黄仁勋也顺理成章地登上全球华人首富的宝座。 但情况似乎在悄然发生变化：无论是黄仁勋，还是曾经的全球首富比尔·盖茨，都在减持自家股票。而借着这轮AI ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, GMV decreased by 2.3% year-over-year to RMB 2.62 billion, while total revenues increased by 2.1% to RMB 2.33 billion, indicating a recovery in top-line growth [17] - Adjusted net loss narrowed significantly by approximately 78% year-over-year to RMB 14 million, with an adjusted net loss margin improving to 0.6% [5][20] - Operating loss decreased by 69.3% to RMB 32.3 million, with the margin improving to negative 1.4% from negative 4.6% [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of transacting customers exceeded 70,000, reaching a new quarterly high, and private label GMV grew by 16.7% year-over-year, accounting for 8.2% of total GMV [17][8] - Gross margin for product sales YP model increased by 11.2 basis points to 16.2%, while the marketplace model's take rate rose by 47.5 basis points to 13.1% year-over-year [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average weekday order value improved from approximately RMB 37 million in July to RMB 52 million in November, representing an increase of over 40% [4] - The company added over 2.3 million sellable SKUs, bringing the total to more than 19 million, and onboarded over 1,200 new suppliers [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its supply chain capabilities and product offerings, particularly in professional and industrial-grade MRO categories [9][25] - AI technologies are being integrated across various business processes to improve operational efficiency and customer experience [10][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about achieving quarterly profitability in Q4 2025, driven by improved operational efficiency and a balanced customer mix [21] - The company anticipates GMV growth of 15%-20% per year going forward, while balancing profitability with long-term investments in core competencies [33] Other Important Information - The company generated net cash of approximately RMB 105.5 million from operating activities, a significant improvement from the previous year [21] - The launch of the Expert Linglong AI model is expected to enhance the entire MRO supply chain, improving efficiency and productivity [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Views on the competitive landscape of the MRO market in China - Management believes that the IPO of JD Industrial is beneficial for the industry, as it promotes the concept of one-stop purchasing on e-commerce platforms [24] - The company emphasizes its specialization in chemicals and industrial-grade MROs, which sets it apart from competitors [25][26] Question: Reasons for not being profitable and balancing profitability with long-term investments - Management indicated that previous losses were due to significant investments in infrastructure and core competencies, but they are now entering a phase focused on profitability [30] - The company plans to control expenses while continuing to invest in R&D and overseas expansion to ensure sustainable profitability [33] Question: Future plans for overseas expansion - Management is focused on serving Chinese companies going abroad while also developing business in the U.S. and Europe, with a break-even target for overseas operations by 2026 [36]

毕马威中国环境、社会和治理(ESG)主管合伙人沈莹在COP30分享中国在绿色低碳高质量发展方面的最 新实践与智慧，与全球伙伴共同探讨通过可持续的方式推进能源转型。从企业的角度，沈莹认为，在全 球对气候与可持续发展要求不断提升的背景下，企业披露的可持续信息正在从"可选题"转变为"必答 题"，ESG鉴证如今正逐渐成为企业战略管理的重要组成部分。全球ESG鉴证成熟度呈现分化态势，而 数据质量成核心竞争力。总体趋势已经非常明确：ESG鉴证不是终点，而是一个持续旅程的起点。 本报讯(记者闫立良)11月10日至21日在巴西贝伦市举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三十次缔约方 大会(COP30)被国际社会寄予厚望。继深度参与COP29后，专业服务机构毕马威此次以"创新驱动转型之 路"为主题，继续投身COP30的全球议程。毕马威在此次巴西COP30大会上，解读《毕马威2025年环 境、社会与治理鉴证成熟度指数》报告等研究成果，并聚焦"披露和可持续投资"等相关议题，与国际多 边机构、标准制定组织、机构投资者等进行深入交流。 本次毕马威参加COP30，还就人工智能(AI)对气候行动与能源转型的影响；自然与生物多样性在企业转 型规 ...

Group 1 - GAC Toyota's sales vice president denied rumors about discontinuing multiple fuel vehicle models, stating the information is false [1] - The company is reportedly facing market speculation regarding the potential discontinuation of two main fuel vehicle models by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Ant Group's AI assistant "Lingguang" achieved over 500,000 downloads within three days of its launch, ranking seventh on the App Store overall chart and first in the free tools category [2] Group 3 - Airbus announced the initiation of the second phase of its share buyback program, which aims to support future employee stock ownership and incentive plans, with a maximum buyback limit of 4.14 million shares [3] Group 4 - Yann LeCun, Meta's chief scientist, announced his departure to start a new company focused on Advanced Machine Intelligence, aiming to revolutionize AI capabilities [4] Group 5 - Xiaomi's automotive division announced the production of its 500,000th vehicle, with expectations to exceed 400,000 deliveries in 2025 [5] Group 6 - The U.S. government plans to launch an initiative called "Genesis Mission" to enhance AI development, emphasizing its importance comparable to historical projects like the Manhattan Project [6] Group 7 - Google plans to invest $2 billion in building a data center in Turkey, as announced by the Turkish Vice President [7] Group 8 - Singapore-based fintech company RockFlow completed a new funding round of several million dollars, led by Ant Group [9] Group 9 - The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering increasing the VAT rate from 7% to 8.5% in 2028, contingent on economic recovery [10] Group 10 - The Chinese Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association is set to issue a notice to regulate pricing in the lithium iron phosphate industry, aiming to combat ongoing losses and price competition [11] Group 11 - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China are seeking public opinions on the draft standards for government procurement of new energy vehicles [12] Group 12 - Indonesia is in discussions with Singapore and Malaysia to establish a trilateral data center collaboration [13] Group 13 - China's first green hydrogen coal chemical project has commenced market operations, showcasing a successful model for the green transformation of the coal chemical industry [14]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group has signed a long-term supply agreement with key component suppliers to address the rising storage chip prices driven by the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Chain Strategy - The long-term contract aims to ensure sufficient supply for the upcoming year, reflecting Lenovo's emphasis on stability and sustainability during its AI transformation [1][2]. - By locking in key component supplies, Lenovo can better control cost fluctuations and gain strategic advantages in a competitive market [2][3]. - Lenovo's significant purchasing power allows it to negotiate favorable terms in the supply chain, creating a competitive edge that smaller players cannot match [3]. Group 2: Market Context and Performance - The global storage chip prices are increasing due to heightened demand from data center operators for AI server construction, leading to a tightening supply of traditional storage chips used in smartphones, computers, and gaming devices [1]. - Lenovo's Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) reported a revenue of 108.1 billion RMB in the second quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, marking a 12% year-on-year increase, with AI terminal devices contributing significantly to this growth [3]. - The CEO of Lenovo believes that the market will not experience a bubble, but rather a phase of AI technology becoming more widespread and accessible [3].