来源：中国基金报 【导读】2026年开门红，港股暴涨，韩国、英国股市创下新高 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今天A股休市，但外围市场涨疯了。相信假期归来的时候，咱们的市场，开门红的概率应该会 很高！ 一起看看今天市场发生了什么事情。 中国资产暴涨 1月2日，港股开年大涨，恒生指数收涨2.76%，恒生科技指数涨4%。 半导体板块涨幅居前，华虹半导体涨超9%，中芯国际涨超5%。 | < w | Wind香港半导体(887132) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15732.27 1147.88 7.87% | | | | 10. 11 | 3 | | | | *** | 成分 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 -- | | 壁仞科技 | | 34.460 | 75.82% | | 6082.HK | | | | | 花郎未言体 | | 81.300 | 9.42% | | 1347.HK | | | | | 中芯国际 | | 75.100 | 5.11% | | 0981.HK | | | | | ASMPT | | 81.200 | ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 光大证券指出，AI数据中心和处理器对高带宽存储（HBM）的需求推动全球半导体材料市场规模持续 提升。HBM在制程复杂度、堆叠层数和封装工艺上要求更高，单位比特所需晶圆面积约为传统DRAM 的三倍以上，显著增加了对半导体材料的消耗量。根据TECHCET预测，2025年全球半导体材料市场规 模将达700亿美元，同比增长6%，2029年有望超过870亿美元。中国大陆市场方面，2025年半导体关键 材料市场规模预计为1740.8亿元，同比增长21.1%。先进制程对电子化学品的纯度、稳定性和一致性要 求更高，行业竞争格局有望向头部集中。 新材料50ETF（159761）跟踪的是新材料指数（H30597），该指数从市场中选取涉及先进基础材料、关 键战略材料及前沿新材料等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映新材料相关上市公司证券的整体 表现。该指数聚焦于新材料产业，具有较高的科技含量和成长潜力，行业配置上侧重于化工、金属非金 属等新材料相关领域。 ...

光大证券指出，AI数据中心和处理器对高带宽存储（HBM）的需求推动全球半导体材料市场持续增 长。HBM在制程复杂度、堆叠层数和封装工艺上要求更高，单位比特所需晶圆面积约为DRAM的三倍 以上，显著提升了半导体材料消耗量。TECHCET预测2025年全球半导体材料市场规模将达700亿美元， 同比增长6%，2029年将超870亿美元。市场方面，2025年半导体关键材料市场规模预计为1740.8亿元， 同比增长21.1%。先进制程对电子化学品的纯度、稳定性和一致性要求更高，行业格局有望向头部集 中，具备技术实力和规模优势的供应商将受益。 新材料50ETF（159761）跟踪的是新材料指数（H30597），该指数聚焦于新材料产业，从市场中选取涉 及先进基础材料、关键战略材料及前沿新材料等业务领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映新材料 行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数具有较高的成长性和创新性特征，适合关注高技术产业发展 趋势的投资者。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that AI demand is driving continuous growth in global semiconductor sales, with a projected sales figure of approximately $612.1 billion in the first ten months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [2] - The semiconductor market in mainland China is expected to reach around $169.4 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [2] - The global semiconductor market size is forecasted to reach $700.9 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, with the Asia-Pacific region contributing approximately $370.6 billion, growing by 9.8% [2] Group 2 - The expansion of wafer capacity is accelerating due to the demand growth driven by generative AI, with global 12-inch wafer monthly capacity expected to reach 11.1 million pieces by 2028, corresponding to a CAGR of about 7% from 2024 to 2028 [3] - The capacity for advanced processes of 7nm and below is projected to increase from 850,000 pieces in 2024 to 1.4 million pieces by 2028, with a CAGR of approximately 14% [3] - The number of wafer foundries in mainland China is anticipated to grow from 29 in 2024 to 71 by 2027 [3] Group 3 - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is rapidly increasing due to data centers and AI processors, with the global semiconductor materials market expected to reach around $70 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [4] - The Chinese semiconductor key materials market is projected to reach approximately 174.08 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 21.1% [4] Group 4 - Advanced processes require higher performance parameters for electronic chemicals, leading to a concentration of industry dynamics towards leading suppliers who can meet the stringent demands of advanced manufacturing processes [5] - The tolerance for foreign contamination in advanced processes has significantly decreased, necessitating higher purity, stability, and consistency in electronic chemicals [5] - Only suppliers with technical strength, scale advantages, and long-term customer relationships are likely to secure core orders in the evolving competitive landscape [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The global semiconductor sales are expected to continue growing in 2025, driven by demand from AI computing, data centers, and smart driving applications. The global semiconductor sales for January to October 2025 are projected to be approximately $612.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with China's semiconductor sales at about $169.4 billion, up 12.5% [1][22] - The global semiconductor market size is forecasted to reach $700.9 billion in 2025, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific region's market size expected to be around $370.6 billion, growing by 9.8% [1][22] - The expansion of wafer production capacity is accelerating, particularly in advanced processes, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2024 to 2028 for global 12-inch wafer monthly capacity, expected to reach 11.1 million pieces by 2028 [2][26] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is increasing due to data centers and AI processors, with the global semiconductor materials market expected to reach approximately $70 billion in 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year [3][30] - The advanced process requires higher performance parameters for electronic chemicals, leading to a concentration of industry competition towards leading suppliers capable of meeting these demands [4][32] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market - AI demand is driving global semiconductor sales growth, with projections for 2025 indicating a significant increase in both global and Chinese markets [1][22] - The semiconductor market is expected to grow to $700.9 billion in 2025, with a further increase to $760.7 billion in 2026 [1][22] Wafer Production Capacity - The global semiconductor wafer production capacity is set to expand significantly, particularly in advanced processes, with a CAGR of 14% for 7nm and below processes from 2024 to 2028 [2][26] Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to grow to $70 billion in 2025, with a notable increase in China's market size to approximately 174.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.1% year-on-year growth [3][30] Electronic Chemicals - The advanced semiconductor processes require higher purity and stability in electronic chemicals, leading to a competitive landscape favoring top suppliers with technological and scale advantages [4][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in semiconductor materials, particularly those with strong technological capabilities and deep ties to downstream wafer manufacturers [34]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group has signed a long-term supply agreement with key component suppliers to address the rising storage chip prices driven by the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Chain Strategy - The long-term contract aims to ensure sufficient supply for the upcoming year, reflecting Lenovo's emphasis on stability and sustainability during its AI transformation [1][2]. - By locking in key component supplies, Lenovo can better control cost fluctuations and gain strategic advantages in a competitive market [2][3]. - Lenovo's significant purchasing power allows it to negotiate favorable terms in the supply chain, creating a competitive edge that smaller players cannot match [3]. Group 2: Market Context and Performance - The global storage chip prices are increasing due to heightened demand from data center operators for AI server construction, leading to a tightening supply of traditional storage chips used in smartphones, computers, and gaming devices [1]. - Lenovo's Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) reported a revenue of 108.1 billion RMB in the second quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, marking a 12% year-on-year increase, with AI terminal devices contributing significantly to this growth [3]. - The CEO of Lenovo believes that the market will not experience a bubble, but rather a phase of AI technology becoming more widespread and accessible [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [5] Core Insights - The storage manufacturers have announced price increases, indicating a potential rebound in storage prices. Sandisk plans to raise prices by over 10% starting April 1, 2025, reflecting the upward trend in NAND Flash wafer prices due to supply constraints and reduced inventory [9] - The mismatch in supply and demand is identified as a primary reason for the price increase in storage. Major manufacturers like Micron and Samsung are reducing production, with Micron expecting a decline in NAND shipments in Q2 2025 and Samsung cutting its supply by 10%-15% [9] - The demand for storage is surging due to increased capital expenditures in AI, with major companies like Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft projected to spend a total of $297.2 billion in 2025, a 36.8% increase year-on-year [9] - The widening supply-demand gap in the storage market is expected to reverse previous pessimistic forecasts, potentially leading to a new investment cycle in the storage sector [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic industry index decreased by 0.62% in the week of March 10-14, 2025, ranking among the bottom three sectors [12] - The semiconductor sector saw a decline of 2.11%, while the components sector experienced the highest increase of 6.68% [14] Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is undergoing significant changes, including the appointment of a new CEO at Intel and the rise of Northern Huachuang to the sixth position among global semiconductor equipment suppliers [32][39] - Northern Huachuang is the only Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturer in the top ten, with a projected 39.4% growth in sales for 2024 [39] - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on the semiconductor industry, with U.S. tariffs prompting companies to relocate manufacturing to the U.S. [35] Consumer Electronics - Apple faces challenges in the Chinese market, with a projected 2% decline in iPhone sales in 2025 and a significant drop of 31.7% in wireless earphone sales [52][55] - The report notes that Apple is losing market share to domestic brands like Xiaomi and Huawei, which offer more affordable alternatives [55] Automotive Electronics - Global automotive sales increased by 49% in February 2025, reaching 1.2 million units, despite challenges posed by EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [60] - NIO has implemented a 10% workforce reduction, reflecting broader trends in the automotive sector [63]