中国经济网北京7月31日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.1494，较前一交易日调贬53个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年7月31日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.1494元，1欧元对人民币8.1920元，100日元对人民币4.8007元，1港元对人民币0.91079元，1 英镑对人民币9.5013元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6238元，1新西兰元对人民币4.2424元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.5306元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8099元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1863元，人民币1元对1.1314澳门 元，人民币1元对0.59185马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.2641俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.5106南非兰 特，人民币1元对193.79韩元，人民币1元对0.51204阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52299沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对48.8616匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.52153波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9112丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3635瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4369挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.6569 ...

在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1823，较上一交易日下跌58点。 ...

新华社北京7月30日电 中国外汇交易中心7月30日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚 尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 7月30日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 714.41人民币 100欧元 827.03人民币 100日元 4.8238人民币 100港元 91.01人民币 100英镑 956.02人民币 100澳元 466.38人民币 100新西兰元 426.69人民币 100新加坡元 555.98人民币 100瑞士法郎 888.69人民币 100加元 519.83人民币 100人民币113.23澳门元 100人民币59.129马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1130.92俄罗斯卢布 100人民币249.84南非兰特 100人民币19355韩元 100人民币51.289阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.379沙特里亚尔 100人民币4833.58匈牙利福林 100人民币51.739波兰兹罗提 100人民币90.26丹麦克朗 100人民币134.75瑞典克朗 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - In June, the interbank foreign exchange market in China showed stable trading performance amid increasing geopolitical risks, easing uncertainties in U.S. trade policies, and new progress in China-U.S. economic and trade consultations [1] Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market reached $208.217 billion in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.71% and remaining above $200 billion for three consecutive months [3] - The average daily trading volume for the RMB foreign exchange market was $152.444 billion, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year increase but a 3.58% month-on-month decline [3] - The foreign currency market and foreign currency interest rate market saw trading activity increase by over 30% year-on-year [3] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index initially rose and then fell, ending June at 96.77, a depreciation of 2.68% for the month [2] - The RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar fluctuated and rose, with the central parity rate on June 20 at 7.1695 [2] - The CFETS index for the RMB against a basket of currencies fell to 95.35 points by the end of June, a cumulative depreciation of 0.64% for the month [2] Interest Rate Differentials - The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. continued to narrow, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to 4.23% by the end of June [4] - The 10-year China-U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed to -264 basis points, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous month [4] Swap Points - The 1-year swap points rose to -1866 basis points by the end of June, an increase of 194 basis points, marking the highest level in nearly eight months [4] - The difference between the 1-year swap points and the theoretical value based on interest rate parity turned positive, ending at 117 basis points, the highest this year [5] - The overnight interest rate differential between domestic and foreign dollars remained negative throughout June, with the month-end rate at -18 basis points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has announced an increase in the central parity rate of the RMB against the USD, indicating a strengthening of the Chinese currency in the foreign exchange market [1] Exchange Rate Summary - The central parity rate for the RMB against the USD was set at 7.1441, an increase of 70 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.1511 [1] - As of 9:40 AM, the onshore RMB was trading at 7.1736, appreciating by 0.05%, while the offshore RMB was at 7.1764, appreciating by 0.06% [1] Panda Bond Market Summary - Morgan Stanley successfully issued a 5-year 2 billion yuan panda bond with a coupon rate of only 1.98%, marking a significant entry of a US company into the panda bond market [1] - Hungary issued two panda bonds, a 3-year bond of 4 billion yuan and a 5-year bond of 1 billion yuan, setting records for the largest single issuance by a foreign government and the first 5-year foreign government panda bond, respectively [1] - These developments reflect the increasing international interest in RMB-denominated assets [1]

中国经济网北京7月30日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.1441，较前一交易日上调70个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年7月30日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.1441元，1欧元对人民币8.2703元，100日元对人民币4.8238元，1港元对人民币0.91010元，1 英镑对人民币9.5602元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6638元，1新西兰元对人民币4.2669元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.5598元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8869元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1983元，人民币1元对1.1323澳门 元，人民币1元对0.59129马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3092俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4984南非兰 特，人民币1元对193.55韩元，人民币1元对0.51289阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52379沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对48.3358匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51739波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9026丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3475瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4249挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.6643 ...

Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the RMB/USD exchange rate has experienced fluctuations, initially appreciating, then depreciating, and finally appreciating again, maintaining relative strength overall [3][4] - The RMB has appreciated by 1.79% against the USD, while the USD index has decreased by 9.97% during the same period, indicating a trend of RMB appreciation against the USD and depreciation against a basket of currencies [4] - The rapid decline of the USD index has exceeded market expectations, influenced by various factors including US economic policies and trade tariffs [4][5] Exchange Rate Trends - From the beginning of the year to March 18, the RMB appreciated from 7.3 to 7.22, then weakened to 7.35 by April 9, before appreciating again to around 7.17 by July 25 [4] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell from 102.1 at the beginning of the year to approximately 95.7 by July 25, reflecting the RMB's performance against a basket of currencies [4] External Factors Influencing RMB - The decline in the USD index is attributed to several factors, including market expectations of US economic policies and the impact of tariffs on economic growth [4][9] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the sustainability of US debt has weakened confidence in USD assets, which may constrain the USD index's performance in the medium term [4][5] Domestic Economic Environment - The stable domestic economic policy environment has supported the RMB exchange rate, with a focus on stabilizing employment and enterprises [5][10] - In the first half of the year, exports grew by 5.9%, demonstrating resilience in the foreign trade sector, which has positively impacted the RMB [5][11] Future Outlook for RMB - The RMB exchange rate will continue to be influenced by both internal and external factors, including the USD index and tariff policies, as well as domestic economic recovery and policy management expectations [8][10] - The USD index is expected to experience complex movements, with potential for both upward and downward pressures [9][10] - Domestic macroeconomic policies are anticipated to remain accommodative, supporting industrial profits and enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets [10][11] Policy Management - Authorities are committed to maintaining a stable exchange rate, utilizing various strategies to manage expectations and liquidity in offshore markets [12] - Since May, the RMB middle rate has aligned closely with onshore and offshore spot rates, indicating stability in the exchange rate [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, exceeding the annual growth target, but the outlook for the second half remains cautious due to pressures from tariffs, real estate, and limited fiscal capacity [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for stronger counter-cyclical policies to achieve the annual economic growth target, given the marginal weakening of growth momentum in Q2 compared to Q1 [3][4]. - It suggests that the government should utilize public budget funds and consider issuing an additional 2.3 trillion yuan in government bonds to support fiscal spending [4]. - The report highlights the importance of urban renewal projects as a critical area for expanding domestic demand, especially as the effectiveness of existing policies like "trade-in" diminishes over time [4][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The report recommends lowering policy interest rates to guide market rates downwards, which is essential for restoring balance between private sector savings and investments [4][5]. - It notes that the current global environment, with many developed countries in a rate-cutting cycle, provides a favorable backdrop for such monetary easing [4]. Group 3: Currency Valuation and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The report discusses the depreciation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate by over 15% since 2022, attributing this to persistent domestic demand shortages [7][8]. - It emphasizes that the comparison of expected returns between RMB assets and foreign exchange assets is crucial for determining the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [8]. - The report suggests that timely and sufficient counter-cyclical policies are necessary to achieve a reasonable valuation of the RMB's real effective exchange rate [8][9]. Group 4: Stablecoin Development and Internationalization of RMB - The report outlines the structural changes in the RMB exchange rate, including a shift in expectations and a changing interest rate environment, which could support the internationalization of the RMB [11]. - It discusses the potential pathways for advancing RMB stablecoin trials, emphasizing the need for onshore stablecoins due to the lack of application scenarios for offshore stablecoins [12]. - The report highlights the importance of strict regulation in the development of RMB stablecoins to avoid missing critical opportunities in the evolving financial landscape [12].

Market Performance - The film and cinema sector is leading the gains, with stocks like Happiness Blue Sea rising over 23%, and other companies such as Hengdian Film and China Film increasing by over 3% [1][2] - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising: the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.27% [1][2] Company Updates - CK Hutchison Holdings (长和) opened nearly 1% higher, reaching a multi-year high [3] - CK Hutchison announced that the exclusive negotiation period with a consortium has ended, and discussions are ongoing to invite major strategic investors from mainland China to join the consortium [5] Sector Highlights - The engineering machinery and 6G sectors are also showing active performance [1][2] - The innovation drug concept is experiencing significant gains, with Hengrui Medicine rising over 10% due to a collaboration with GSK worth up to $12 billion [6]