Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent consensus reached in the China-US trade negotiations has led to a significant positive sentiment in the financial markets, with major stock indices rising and the renminbi strengthening [1][2][4] - Following the announcement of the joint statement from the China-US Geneva trade talks, the A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3369.24 points, up 0.82%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.72% [2] - The offshore renminbi appreciated significantly, with a rise of over 300 points, closing at 7.2061 against the US dollar, reflecting a 0.47% increase [2] Group 2 - The international gold price experienced a sharp decline of over 3% following the positive developments in the China-US trade talks, with London spot gold dropping to $3226 per ounce [4][5] - A total of 14 gold ETFs fell by more than 2% on the same day, indicating a broader market reaction to the trade negotiations [7] - Analysts suggest that the decline in gold prices is linked to the reduced risk perception in the market due to the progress in trade talks, as gold is typically viewed as a safe-haven asset [5][6]

Group 1: Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Stability - Despite intensified US-China trade tensions and cumulative tariffs exceeding 100%, the RMB to USD exchange rate remains stable, even slightly appreciating, which exceeds market expectations [2][3] - External factors contributing to this stability include the depreciation of the USD due to a crisis of confidence, as well as the impact of Trump's policies that have led to a significant decline in the USD index, which has dropped over 7% this year [3][4] - Internal factors include the anticipation of external pressures reflected in the RMB's previous adjustments, as well as government measures to stabilize the market, such as the introduction of financial policies and the release of stabilizing signals in the exchange rate [4][6] Group 2: Future Support for RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate is supported by four key factors: the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on the US economy, ongoing USD credit crises, the resumption of US-China economic dialogues, and the adequacy of China's policy reserves to stabilize market expectations [5][6] - The potential for a shift to two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate is increasing, driven by the convergence of economic cycles and monetary policies between China and the US [6][7] Group 3: Corporate Exchange Rate Risk Management - Companies are advised to adopt a "risk-neutral" approach to manage exchange rate risks, avoiding unilateral bets on RMB appreciation or depreciation [8][9] - Recommended strategies include natural hedging through matching foreign exchange income and expenses, promoting the use of RMB for settlements, and utilizing foreign exchange derivatives to hedge against potential fluctuations [8][9]

在岸人民币兑美元日内涨近400点，现报7.2030，日内涨幅达0.5%。 离岸人民币兑美元日内涨超450点，现报7.1946，日内涨幅达0.6%。 ...

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）5月12日，据新华社消息，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布。中国和美国认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要 性；认识到可持续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要性；鉴于双方近期的讨论，相信持续的协商有助于解决双方在经贸领域关切的问题；本着相互开 放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊重的精神，继续推进相关工作。 正如人民银行日前发布的《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》强调，"坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度， 坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范 汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定"。 展望后市，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，在关税战取得突破性进展后，人民币汇率有望在当前区间延续升值走势，这也反映出国际资本对于人民 币资产的信心。 商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中 ...

金融研究 2025年5月12日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 9 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.3%，报收 3342 点；深成指下 跌 0.69%，报收 10126.83 点；创业板指下跌 0.87%，报收 2011.77 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.96%， 报收 1006.32 点。市场成交 12,224 亿元，较前日减少 994 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+1.41%)， 银行(+1.36%)，纺织服饰(+0.72%)涨幅居前；电子(-2.07%)，计算机(-1.96%)，国防军工(-1.87%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,212/135/4,061。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-174、-192、62、304 亿元，分别变动-244、-103、+156、 +191 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 136.88、116.92、37.56 与 17.81 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-18.75%、-17.03%、-8.14%与-5.53%，三年期历史分 ...

瑞穗银行：关税降幅超出预期，有助于提振人民币汇率，但前景将取决于中间价信号。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着中美贸易谈判取得进展，高盛将未来12个月人民币兑美元汇率预期上调至 7.0。 以Kamakshya Trivedi为首的高盛分析师在一份报告中写道，该行同时将三个月和六个月汇率预期分别调 升至7.20和7.10，这一调整综合考虑了中国强劲的出口表现等多重因素。 分析师在报告中指出："无论是实际贸易加权汇率还是兑美元汇率，人民币当前估值均处于偏低水平。 这意味着在岸人民币存在走强空间，可能部分抵消关税下调带来的影响。" 此番乐观预期源于全球两大经济体在周末贸易谈判中取得的进展，尽管具体细节尚未披露。受此消息提 振，周一人民币及中国股市温和上涨，但涨幅有限，反映出市场对谈判复杂性的预判。 值得注意的是，高盛此前对三个月、六个月及十二个月的在岸人民币汇率预测分别为7.30、7.35和 7.35。人民币上次突破7.0关口还要追溯至2023年5月。 本月以来，在中美贸易紧张局势缓和的预期下，在岸人民币已累计升值0.5%，有望创下自今年1月以来 的最佳月度表现。 法国巴黎银行资产管理公司同样认为，如果美元持续疲软且中国经济增速超预期，今年人民币有望测试 7.0关口。 该公司新兴市场固定收益投资组合 ...

智通财经5月12日电，离岸人民币兑美元升值超200点，现报7.2153。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan exchange rate indices showed an overall increase in the week of May 9, with the CFETS index at 96.53, the BIS index at 102.16, and the SDR index at 91.11, indicating a strengthening of the yuan against a backdrop of fluctuating global currencies [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - CFETS RMB exchange rate index reported at 96.53, up 0.33% week-on-week [1][2] - BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index reported at 102.16, up 0.07% week-on-week [1][2] - SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index reported at 91.11, up 0.67% week-on-week [1][2] External Factors - The US dollar index increased by 0.38% to 100.4218, marking its first recovery above the 100 level since early April [6] - Despite the dollar's strength, external pressures on the yuan were limited due to easing tariff expectations and a general appreciation of Asian currencies [6] - The expectation of a weaker dollar has led to increased foreign exchange hedging demand in some Asian countries, providing support for the yuan [6] Internal Factors - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio effective May 15, which may exert some pressure on the yuan [7] - The yuan's central parity maintained above 7.20 against the dollar, with adjustments being less than market expectations, indicating a moderate weakening trend against a basket of currencies [7] Economic Insights - Experts suggest that maintaining stability in the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar is crucial for managing cross-border capital flows and supporting exports [8] - The divergence in economic cycles and monetary policies between China and the US may provide a foundation for the yuan's dual-directional fluctuations [8] Domestic Economic Measures - The People's Bank of China introduced measures to lower the reserve requirement ratio and support financial institutions in key sectors such as service consumption and elderly care, with a total loan quota of 500 billion yuan at a 1.5% interest rate [11] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a plan to promote high-quality development in public funds, including measures to reduce investor costs and enhance fund performance evaluation [11]

金十数据5月12日讯，5月12日开盘，银行间外汇市场上人民币对美元汇率直线拉升。Wind数据显示， 截至9:34，在岸人民币对美元汇率报7.2289元，较前收盘价涨172个基点，离岸人民币对美元汇率报 7.2271元，较前收盘价涨132个基点。中国货币网数据显示，5月12日，人民币对美元中间价报7.2066， 较前一交易日调升29个基点。 （中证金牛座） 在岸人民币汇率早间直线拉升 ...