机器学习
Search documents
机器学习因子选股月报(2025年9月)-20250831
Southwest Securities· 2025-08-31 04:12
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: GAN_GRU **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing volume-price time-series features and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for encoding time-series features to create a stock selection factor[4][13][41] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 volume-price features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate[14][17][19] - Training data consists of the past 400 days of these features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 matrix to predict cumulative returns over the next 20 trading days[18] - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and normalization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels[18] - Model architecture: Two GRU layers (128, 128) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet), which serves as the stock selection factor[22] - Training method: Semi-annual rolling training, with training conducted on June 30 and December 31 each year[18] - Optimization: Adam optimizer, learning rate of 1e-4, IC loss function, early stopping after 10 epochs, and a maximum of 50 training epochs[18] 2. **GAN Component**: - GAN consists of a generator (G) and a discriminator (D)[23] - Generator: Uses LSTM to preserve the time-series nature of the input features, transforming random noise into realistic data samples[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability[24][25] - Discriminator: Uses CNN to process the two-dimensional volume-price time-series features, distinguishing between real and generated data[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data[27][29] - Training: Alternating updates of the generator and discriminator parameters until convergence[30] **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both time-series and cross-sectional features, leveraging the strengths of GAN and GRU for stock selection[4][13][41] --- Model Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from the GAN_GRU model, this factor encodes volume-price time-series features to predict stock returns[4][13][41] **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is generated using the output of the GAN_GRU model, which combines GAN-based feature generation and GRU-based time-series encoding[4][13][41] - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, as well as standardization, before being used for testing[22] **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent outperformance in recent years[4][13][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42]
德国耐驰:树脂基复材在线固化监测与智能化生产控制
DT新材料· 2025-08-27 16:04
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the innovative solutions provided by NETZSCH in the polymer and polymer-based composite processing industry, particularly through the application of their sensXPERT technology in Airbus's manufacturing processes [2][6]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Various industries, including automotive and aerospace, face similar challenges such as reducing production cycles, increasing yield, and dynamically controlling each product [3]. - The increasing use of thermosetting plastics and composites in high-performance parts production necessitates customized resin and formulation materials, which introduces significant production challenges [3]. - A critical issue in composite manufacturing is the lack of "data transparency," particularly in real-time curing process data, which hinders process optimization and efficiency improvements [3]. Group 2: NETZSCH Solutions - NETZSCH has been selected by Airbus to provide intelligent sensor solutions, integrating innovative sensors with advanced analytics and machine learning to enhance polymer and composite manufacturing methods [6]. - The sensors installed in molds can measure key material properties in real-time, such as curing degree and glass transition temperature, thereby improving production efficiency [6]. - The combination of material science with real-time data from the manufacturing environment allows for the application of AI on the production floor, creating dynamic processes based on historical and new data [6]. Group 3: Benefits of sensXPERT - The sensXPERT solution aims to reduce scrap rates and achieve operational excellence by optimizing processes in real-time [10]. - It provides maximum equipment efficiency and transparency in the manufacturing process through customizable dashboards that allow for product traceability [10]. - The solution also accounts for variations in data from different batches due to factors like transportation, storage, and environmental conditions, ensuring a reliable manufacturing process [6]. Group 4: Upcoming Events - The 2025 Polymer Industry Annual Conference will take place from September 10-12 in Hefei, where industry leaders will discuss new opportunities in emerging industries, including AI and aerospace [12][18]. - Zeng Zhiqiang, Vice President of Market and Applications at NETZSCH, will present on "Online Curing Monitoring and Intelligent Production Control of Resin-Based Composites" during the conference [8][20].
字节跳动再失大将,豆包大模型视觉研究负责人冯佳时离职
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 05:06
Core Insights - ByteDance has lost a significant figure in the AI field, Feng Jiashi, who was the leader of the Doubao large model visual research team, raising concerns in the industry [1][3] - Feng Jiashi's departure follows rumors from June, which were initially denied by ByteDance, indicating a confirmed exit [1][3] Group 1: Impact of Departure - Feng Jiashi's exit is expected to impact ByteDance, as he brought extensive academic and practical experience to the company, having previously served as an assistant professor at the National University of Singapore [3][11] - He has published over 400 papers in deep learning and related fields, with over 69,000 citations on Google Scholar, highlighting his significant contributions to AI research [3][11] Group 2: Talent Loss Context - Feng Jiashi's departure is part of a broader trend of talent loss at ByteDance, with several key figures leaving since December, including leaders from various product lines [13] - Despite these challenges, ByteDance is actively recruiting globally to fill the talent gaps, having previously hired key members from Alibaba and Google DeepMind [13][19] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition for AI talent is intensifying, and ByteDance is striving to maintain its leading position in the industry despite the ongoing talent exodus [19]
打磨7年,李航新书《机器学习方法(第2版)》发布,有了强化学习,赠书20本
机器之心· 2025-08-27 03:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the second edition of "Machine Learning Methods" by Li Hang, which expands on traditional machine learning to include deep learning and reinforcement learning, addressing the growing interest in these areas within the AI community [4][5][22]. Summary by Sections Overview of the Book - The new edition of "Machine Learning Methods" includes significant updates and additions, particularly in reinforcement learning, which has been gaining attention in AI applications [4][5]. - The book is structured into four main parts: supervised learning, unsupervised learning, deep learning, and reinforcement learning, providing a comprehensive framework for readers [5][22]. Supervised Learning - The first part covers key supervised learning methods such as linear regression, perceptron, support vector machines, maximum entropy models, logistic regression, boosting methods, hidden Markov models, and conditional random fields [7]. Unsupervised Learning - The second part focuses on unsupervised learning techniques, including clustering, singular value decomposition, principal component analysis, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, EM algorithm, latent semantic analysis, and latent Dirichlet allocation [8]. Deep Learning - The third part introduces major deep learning methods, such as feedforward neural networks, convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks, Transformers, diffusion models, and generative adversarial networks [9]. Reinforcement Learning - The fourth part details reinforcement learning methods, including Markov decision processes, multi-armed bandit problems, proximal policy optimization, and deep Q networks [10]. - The book aims to provide a systematic introduction to reinforcement learning, which has been less covered in previous textbooks [4][10]. Learning Approach - Each chapter presents one or two machine learning methods, explaining models, strategies, and algorithms in a clear manner, supported by mathematical derivations to enhance understanding [12][19]. - The book is designed for university students and professionals, assuming a background in calculus, linear algebra, probability statistics, and computer science [22]. Author Background - Li Hang, the author, is a recognized expert in the field, with a background in natural language processing, information retrieval, machine learning, and data mining [24].
对话菁英投顾——“智选多资产ETF”主创何嘉文
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-08-27 02:23
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the advantages of using ETFs as a diversified investment tool in a complex market environment, highlighting their superior performance compared to individual stocks over various time frames [2][4]. Performance Analysis - As of August 13, 2023, 83% of individual stocks have risen, while nearly 95% of ETFs/LOFs have increased in value [2][3]. - The performance of ETFs over different periods shows a consistently higher percentage of rising ETFs compared to individual stocks: - 6 months: 77% for stocks vs. 90% for ETFs - 1 year: 93% for stocks vs. 81% for ETFs - 2 years: 65% for stocks vs. 74% for ETFs - 3 years: 59% for stocks vs. 66% for ETFs [3]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy centers on "risk diversification and long-term stability," suitable for investors seeking asset preservation and moderate risk tolerance [6]. - The approach encourages systematic allocation to mitigate market volatility and emphasizes the importance of using professional quantitative tools [8][9]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy employs a systematic framework that includes a data engine, risk prediction using neural networks, and risk parity for diversified and smooth returns [12]. - The model quantifies safety margins using "downside volatility," adjusting asset allocation based on historical data rather than traditional valuation methods [13]. Selection Criteria - The selection process for ETFs involves evaluating three key indicators: shrinkage in ETF size, liquidity decline, and tracking error expansion [15]. - The strategy focuses on a limited number of holdings, with no single position exceeding 20% of the portfolio [16]. Market Approach - The investment approach is primarily top-down, analyzing macroeconomic risks to determine asset class allocations before selecting specific ETFs [17]. - The model incorporates dynamic thresholds for risk management, triggering automatic adjustments based on volatility predictions [18]. Client Engagement - The service targets investors who are patient and understand the value of diversified investments, while also emphasizing the importance of risk management [22].
媒体看天正 | 国家级智能工厂的“数字医生”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 11:44
Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of industrial internet operation engineers as essential professionals in the digital transformation of traditional industries, acting as "digital doctors" for smart factories [3][4] - Zhejiang Tianzheng Electric Co., Ltd. has established a smart circuit breaker factory that utilizes a digital twin platform to monitor production conditions and data in real-time [3] - The demand for digital transformation in traditional industries is increasing, with Tianzheng's smart factory being recognized as one of the first batch of excellent smart factories in China [4] Industry Overview - The development of the industrial internet is characterized by high integration, intelligence, and ecological features, widely applied across manufacturing, energy, transportation, and healthcare sectors [3] - Industrial internet operation engineers require a comprehensive skill set, including traditional internet knowledge, big data analysis, artificial intelligence, and machine learning [3] Company Insights - Tianzheng's information department employs nearly 30 industrial internet operation engineers who work closely with upstream enterprises and frontline workers to address challenges in the digital transformation process [4] - The company’s smart factory was recognized as the only excellent smart factory in Wenzhou, showcasing its leadership in the industry [4]
推理速度快50倍,MIT团队提出FASTSOLV模型,实现任意温度下的小分子溶解度预测
3 6 Ke· 2025-08-26 07:23
Core Insights - The research team from MIT has developed an improved model for predicting organic solubility using a new organic solubility database, BigSolDB, which enhances the accuracy and speed of solubility predictions [1][2][22] - The new model, named FASTSOLV, shows a reduction in RMSE by 2-3 times compared to existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) models and achieves a speed increase of up to 50 times [2][14][22] Group 1: Model Development and Performance - The FASTSOLV model integrates solute and solvent molecular structures along with temperature parameters to directly regress logS, improving upon traditional methods that are time-consuming and less accurate [2][11] - In strict solute extrapolation scenarios, the optimized model's RMSE is significantly lower than that of the Vermeire model, demonstrating superior performance [14][22] - The model's training and evaluation were conducted using a rigorous system that ensures independence and reliability, avoiding data overlap issues [6][9][13] Group 2: Data Utilization and Methodology - BigSolDB serves as the core data source, systematically collecting solubility data across various solvents and temperatures, which is crucial for training generalizable predictive models [6][11] - The research emphasizes the importance of a well-structured training and evaluation system to achieve reliable extrapolation without prior conditions [6][9] - The study highlights the need for high-quality organic solvent datasets to further enhance model performance, indicating that simply increasing training data may not overcome performance limits [22][25] Group 3: Industry Implications and Applications - The advancements in solubility prediction technology are seen as key solutions to industry challenges such as long experimental times and high R&D costs [24][25] - Companies in the pharmaceutical sector are particularly interested in high-throughput, low-cost solubility assessment technologies, which can significantly improve efficiency in drug development processes [25] - The integration of academic research models into industrial applications is evident, with companies leveraging data-driven models to optimize production processes and enhance product quality [25][26]
国元证券:促消费政策再加码 智能家居产业链有望受益
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 02:33
Policy Perspective - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a policy to expand the categories of household appliance subsidies from 8 to 12 by early 2025, aiming to stimulate consumption in the home appliance and home sectors through equipment updates and recycling initiatives [2] Technology Perspective - Advancements in IoT, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data analysis are broadening the application boundaries and interaction depth of smart home devices, establishing a solid technological foundation for the smart home industry, which is expected to generate more high-value innovative products and services to meet diverse consumer needs [3] Demand Perspective - The easing of the US-China tariff conflict is likely to benefit Chinese home appliance companies in their overseas expansion. Additionally, the rising living standards and technological proliferation, coupled with the accelerated aging population leading to increased demand for home care, are expected to drive continuous upgrades in the smart home industry [4] Conclusion - The entire smart home industry chain, including upstream and downstream sectors, is expected to benefit from these developments, maintaining a "recommended" rating [5]
研判2025!中国机器人流程自动化(RPA)行业发展历程、产业链及市场规模分析:技术融合AI与云化趋势推动RPA升级,助力各行业自动化革新[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-08-26 01:34
Core Insights - The RPA industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of approximately 6.79 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.80% [1][10] - RPA technology is widely applied across various sectors, including finance, manufacturing, healthcare, retail, e-commerce, and public administration, significantly enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [1][10] - The integration of RPA with AI, machine learning, and natural language processing is advancing, enabling more complex process optimizations and cognitive capabilities [1][10][18] Industry Overview - Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is a technology that automates repetitive and rule-based tasks by simulating human actions on computers, thereby improving efficiency and reducing errors [2][4] - The RPA industry in China has evolved through four stages: initial awareness, emergence of local products, increased competition, and deep integration with advanced technologies [4] Market Size - The RPA market in China is expected to reach approximately 6.79 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 35.80% compared to the previous year [10] - RPA applications in finance include tasks such as financial report generation, loan approvals, and anti-money laundering monitoring, which enhance efficiency and accuracy [10] - In manufacturing, RPA is utilized for procurement order processing, quality inspection report generation, and supplier reconciliation, contributing to automated production and supply chain management [10] Industry Chain - The upstream of the RPA industry chain includes servers, storage devices, network equipment, operating systems, databases, natural language processing, computer vision, machine learning, development tools, and cloud services [6] - The midstream consists of RPA software and platform providers, while the downstream applications span finance, manufacturing, public administration, healthcare, e-commerce, and logistics [6] Key Companies - Major players in the RPA market include Jinzhwei, Yisaiqi, Laiye Technology, and Shizai Intelligent, each holding significant market shares and specializing in various technological innovations and industry applications [12][13] - Jinzhwei has established a strong presence in the financial sector, while Yisaiqi excels in RPA combined with AI, particularly in process mining [12][13] Industry Development Trends - RPA technology is transitioning from rule-based automation to cognitive intelligence, with the integration of generative AI and low-code platforms driving this evolution [18] - The application of RPA is expanding from traditional sectors like finance and manufacturing to healthcare and public administration, with significant efficiency gains reported [20] - The adoption of cloud-native architectures and low-code development is expected to facilitate faster implementation of RPA solutions across more enterprises [21]
一文看遍热门芯片,Hot chips 2025首日盘点
半导体行业观察· 2025-08-26 01:28
Group 1: RISC-V Developments - Condor Computing, a subsidiary of Andes Technology, focuses on high-performance RISC-V core development with its first design, Cuzco, completed by a small team of 50 engineers [4][6]. - Cuzco aims to provide the highest performance within a similar power range compared to other RISC-V vendors, indicating a competitive landscape that may lead to a consolidation of players in the future [6][9]. - The Cuzco design features a wide front end, a deep 256-entry reorder buffer, and an 8-way execution pipeline, emphasizing optimization rather than reinventing existing technologies [9][11]. Group 2: Cuzco CPU Core Features - Cuzco is a complete IP design that includes not only the CPU core but also cache and coherence management functions, highlighting its comprehensive architecture [11]. - Key features of Cuzco include support for various precision floating-point operations, new bit manipulation instructions, cryptographic functions, and vector instructions, all crucial for high-performance computing [12][14]. - The innovative time-based microarchitecture of Cuzco aims to improve out-of-order execution efficiency while reducing power consumption by utilizing hardware compilation for instruction scheduling [16][19]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Cuzco's architecture is designed to outperform Andes AX65 cores, achieving nearly double the performance in SPECint2006 benchmarks, showcasing its competitive edge [30][31]. - The design supports up to 8 CPU cores with private L2 and shared L3 caches, connected via a wide CHI bus, enhancing its scalability and performance [33]. Group 4: IBM Power11 Architecture - IBM introduced its Power11 architecture, building on the success of Power10, with a focus on system integration rather than just CPU sales [93][97]. - Power11 features enhancements in memory architecture, supporting up to 32 DDR5 memory ports with speeds up to 38.4 Gbps, aiming for high bandwidth and capacity [117][118]. - The architecture emphasizes fewer, larger cores and integrates AI capabilities directly into the processor, reflecting industry trends towards AI integration [102][114]. Group 5: Intel Clearwater Forest - Intel announced its next-generation 288-core processor, Clearwater Forest, utilizing the 18A process and 3D packaging technology, marking a significant advancement over the previous Sierra Forest generation [124][125]. - Clearwater Forest focuses on energy efficiency and multi-threaded workloads, leveraging smaller, efficient cores instead of traditional large cores [126][130]. - The architecture includes improvements in decoding width, out-of-order execution, and memory bandwidth, with claims of a 17% increase in IPC compared to Sierra [134][142]. Group 6: AMD RDNA 4 Architecture - AMD showcased its RDNA 4 architecture, emphasizing significant updates for graphics and machine learning workloads, with a focus on ray tracing and AI hardware [186][192]. - The architecture features improvements in shader engines, memory bandwidth, and media engines, enhancing performance for real-time workloads [203][205]. - RDNA 4 aims to optimize performance for next-generation gaming, integrating advanced features for ray tracing and AI/ML capabilities [242]. Group 7: NVIDIA Blackwell Architecture - NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture focuses on enhancing machine learning performance and efficiency, with a strong emphasis on FP4 ML computing [244][249]. - The architecture supports advanced features for neural rendering and dynamic scheduling, improving performance across various workloads [253][275]. - Blackwell introduces GDDR7 memory support, significantly increasing overall memory bandwidth and optimizing power consumption for mixed workloads [266][279].