新华财经北京4月29日电（记者王小璐） 29日，中国钢铁工业协会召开一季度信息发布会。中国钢铁工 业协会副会长兼秘书长姜维作为发言人在会上表示，当前钢铁行业"稳的态势在持续、"新"的动能在成 长，"绿的特征在扩展，但也面临供给强于需求、钢价震荡下行等困难，持续推动行业运行向稳向好仍 需付出艰苦努力。 一季度，钢铁生产总体保持稳定，市场供需格局呈现供给强于需求的态势。全国粗钢产量达2.59亿吨， 同比增长0.6%；生铁产量为2.16亿吨，同比增长0.8%；钢材产量3.59亿吨，同比增长6.1%，而全国折合 粗钢表观消费量为2.30亿吨，同比下降1.2%。 在钢材出口方面，一季度钢材出口保持高位。当季钢材累计出口2743万吨，同比增长6.3%，出口均价 706美元／吨，出口总额194亿美元；累计进口钢材155万吨，同比下降11.3% ，折合粗钢净出口2903万 吨，同比增长17.9%。 价格与成本方面，钢材价格同比下降，中国钢材价格指数（CSPI）平均值为95.59点，同比下降 13.66%。同时，主要原燃料采购成本均下降，进口铁矿石均价99.1 美元／吨，同比下降21.3%，重点统 计钢铁企业进口粉矿采购成本同 ...

新华社北京4月29日电（记者王希）记者29日从中国钢铁工业协会了解到，一季度我国钢铁行业积极适 应需求变化，努力克服外部环境挑战，钢铁生产总体保持稳定，重点统计企业利润增长，资产状况总体 好转。 (责任编辑：罗伯特) 在环境绩效方面，中钢协数据显示，一季度，重点统计钢铁企业吨钢综合能耗同比下降0.52%、吨钢可 比能耗同比下降2.1%；吨钢二氧化硫、吨钢颗粒物、吨钢氮氧化物排放量同比分别下降11.68%、 3.27%、12.78%。 姜维表示，尽管钢铁行业稳的态势在持续、新的动能在成长、绿的特征在扩展，但也面临供给强于需 求、钢价震荡下行、出口形势严峻等困难，持续推动行业运行向稳向好仍需付出艰苦努力。 来自国家统计局、海关总署等部门的数据显示，今年一季度，全国粗钢产量2.59亿吨，同比增长0.6%； 同期，我国累计出口钢材2743万吨，同比增长6.3%。 据中钢协初步统计，一季度，重点统计会员钢铁企业累计营业收入为14360亿元，同比下降6.61%；营 业成本为13505亿元，同比下降7.73%；利润总额215.83亿元，同比增长1.08倍。 "总体看，企业资金状况继续好转。"中钢协副会长兼秘书长姜维在当天举 ...

姜维在发布会上提到，中国钢铁出口正面临前所未有的严峻挑战。受"232""301"等关税措施影响，美国 对我国钢铁产品加征关税税率已增至70%，部分品种受对等关税影响税率超过70%。美国自我国进口钢 铁规模较小，目前维持在每年不到100万吨的水平，仅占我国钢材出口总量不到1%，具体品种以管件、 钢丝、无缝管和镀锡板卷等产品为主。美国此次调整"232"关税，预计将影响我国钢铁产品及下游制品 出口，同时进一步搅乱全球钢铁贸易秩序。 根据中钢协统计，2024年我国钢铁产品遭受贸易救济原审案件33起，超过2020年至2023年案件数量总 和，今年初以来又遭受国外贸易救济调查8起。国际钢铁市场碎片化趋势加速凸显。 出口挑战不断加剧下，中钢协同时提出，主要满足国内需求是中国钢铁始终坚持的基本定位，高端钢材 出口是中国钢铁参与全球分工合作的必要途径。 中钢协副秘书长兼市场调研部主任石洪卫在今日发布会上表示，据国家统计局数据，2024年全国粗钢产 量10.05亿吨，粗钢表观消费量为8.92亿吨。这些数据体现了我国钢铁产业依然是以内需为主，我国对粗 钢的需求相当于世界整体钢产量的一半，"中国是钢铁制造的中心，更是钢铁消费的中心" ...

作者 | Seeking Profits 编译 | 华尔街大事件 纽柯钢铁 (NYSE： NUE )的股价 在过去一年中表现不佳，市值缩水约三分之一。尽管该公司受益于钢铁关税，但对大范围征收关税将导致美国 经济衰退的担忧拖累了股价。第一季度业绩好坏参半，但分析师 预计业绩将环比改善。 纽柯公司 第一季度 盈利0.77美元，高于 市场预期0.11美元， 尽管营收较上年下降4%至78亿美元。早在 3月份 ，纽柯公司就预先公布了第一季 度业绩指引，预计盈利0.50-0.60美元，低于当时市场预期的1.06美元。考虑到其最新的业绩指引，这些业绩好于目前的预期，但仍低于一个月 前的市场预期。需要指出的是，纽柯公司通常会在公布业绩前约一个月发布中期业绩更新，这与大多数公司在极端情况下不提供更新业绩指引 的做法不同。 虽然纽柯的盈利能力略好于预期，但由于钢铁价格下跌，其盈利能力大幅下降。其盈利低于上季度的1.22美元和去年同期的3.46美元。纽柯的息 税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为6.96亿美元，低于去年的15亿美元。我们看到该公司的投入成本有所改善；每吨成本为394美元，低于去年的 421美元。但这未能抵消销售价格下 ...

一季度中国钢铁生产总体保持稳定 金十期货4月29日讯，中国钢铁工业协会党委副书记、副会长兼秘书长姜维29日在北京举行的信息发布 会上表示，一季度，钢铁生产总体保持稳定。数据显示，一季度，全国粗钢产量2.59亿吨，同比增长 0.6%；生铁产量2.16亿吨，同比增长0.8%；钢材产量3.59亿吨，同比增长6.1%。全国折合粗钢表观消费 量2.30亿吨，同比下降1.2%。 （国是直通车） ...

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to weak steel industry conditions, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, leading to a "buy" rating for the stock [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Baosteel achieved revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 6.60%, and a net profit of 7.362 billion yuan, down 38.36% year-over-year, which was below previous expectations [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 72.880 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 9.82% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 8.05%, with a net profit of 2.434 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.37% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 64.49% [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Conditions - The steel industry faced a decline in both production and sales in 2024, with output and sales volumes of 51.41 million tons and 51.59 million tons, respectively, representing decreases of 1.0% and 0.6% year-over-year [2]. - The average selling price of steel products was 4,056 yuan per ton (excluding tax), down 6.9% year-over-year, indicating a significant drop in industry profitability [2]. - The average sales profit margin for key enterprises in the steel industry was 0.71% in 2024, down 0.63 percentage points year-over-year, highlighting the industry's challenging conditions [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to undergo supply-side optimization, with government efforts to control production and prevent excessive competition, which may lead to a recovery in industry profits [3]. - Predictions for 2025 suggest that global iron ore production capacity will continue to expand, potentially leading to a decrease in iron ore prices and further recovery in steel industry profits [3]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.43, 0.56, and 0.65 yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment for 2025-2026 due to lower steel price expectations [4].

2025 年钢铁行业分析 联合资信 工商评级四部 |钢铁行业组 2024 年，中国粗钢产量同比小幅下降，钢铁行业下游需求疲弱，供给端相对处于 过剩态势，原燃料价格虽有下降，但成本端降幅不及钢材价格降幅，钢铁行业整体盈 利水平持续下行。受供需关系影响，铁矿石和焦炭价格均呈现波动下行态势；房地产 投资持续下滑，但制造业和基建投资对用钢需求提供重要支撑，钢铁产品结构持续调 整。 预计 2025 年中国钢铁行业将延续供需双弱的格局，钢材价格预计维持震荡走势， 钢铁企业的经营效益难有明显好转。展望未来，短期内，钢铁企业仍将面临一定的经 营压力。长期来看，在产业政策引领下，随着低效产能的逐步出清，钢铁行业将转向 高质量发展，行业竞争格局有望得到明显改善。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 0 一、 行业运行情况 2024年，中国钢铁行业供需双弱，行业景气度仍处于探底阶段。行业供给过 剩依然严重，产品价格下行，钢铁行业整体盈利趋弱。 钢铁是重要的基础原材料，行业具有典型的强周期属性。钢铁行业的供给受 下游需求和行业政策影响很大。 着央行降准、降息以及房地产利好政策密集出台，9 月底至 10 月中旬国内钢材价 格 ...

24 年行业景气度下滑，公司业绩承压 华泰研究 年报点评 2025 年 4 月 29 日│中国内地 钢铁 证券研究报告 宝钢股份 (600019 CH) 宝钢股份发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营收 3221.16 亿元（yoy-6.60%），归母净利 73.62 亿元（yoy-38.36%），低于我们先前的 预期（归母净利 89.56 亿元），主因钢铁行业景气偏弱。2025 Q1 实现营收 728.80 亿元（yoy-9.82%、qoq-8.05%），归母净利 24.34 亿元（yoy+26.37%、 qoq+64.49%）。钢铁行业供给侧优化或渐近，公司作为行业龙头，有望充 分受益于行业利润修复，维持"买入"评级。 2024 年钢铁行业景气度下滑，公司业绩承压 公司 2024 年钢铁产品产量和销量分别为 5141、5159 万吨，同比-1.0%、 -0.6%；钢材综合平均销售价格 4056 元/吨（不含税），同比-6.9%，主因钢 铁行业景气度下滑较多，但价格下行幅度少于中钢协 CSPI钢材价格指数（同 比-13.05%）。公司 2024 年销售毛利率、期间费用率、净利率分别 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. is expanding its steel production capacity through strategic investments, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and product quality while navigating a challenging market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Capacity Expansion - Baosteel announced an investment of 9 billion yuan to acquire a 49% stake in Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., which will increase its controlled steel production capacity to over 80 million tons [1]. - The company plans to achieve a steel production capacity of 80 to 100 million tons by 2025, compared to China's total crude steel output of approximately 1.005 billion tons last year [1]. - Baosteel also acquired a 48.6% stake in Shandong Steel Group Rizhao Co., Ltd. for 10.703 billion yuan, making it the second-largest shareholder [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the previous year, Baosteel reported revenue of 322.1 billion yuan, a 6% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.3 billion yuan, down 38%, marking the lowest profit since 2015 [2]. - Despite the decline, Baosteel remained the most profitable listed steel company in China, while Maanshan Iron & Steel reported a loss of 4.17 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Strategic Product Development - Baosteel's previous product strategy was "1+1+N," focusing on automotive sheets, silicon steel, and other high-margin products, which accounted for 60% of total sales [3]. - The company has revised its product strategy to "2+2+N," adding long products and thick plates, with a sales target of 32.59 million tons for this year [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Export Performance - The domestic steel industry is expected to see a 2% decline in total demand this year, with construction steel demand continuing to decrease while manufacturing steel demand shows slight growth [4]. - Baosteel's steel exports reached a record high of 6.07 million tons last year, accounting for 12% of total sales, with a target of maintaining exports above 6 million tons this year [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 7.98 RMB [5][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 322.12 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.36 billion RMB, down 38.36% year-on-year, primarily due to weak industry conditions [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 72.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.82% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.05%, with a net profit of 2.43 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.49% [1][3]. - The steel industry is expected to undergo supply-side optimization, which may lead to a recovery in industry profits, benefiting the company as a leading player in the sector [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's steel product output and sales for 2024 were 51.41 million tons and 51.59 million tons, respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% and 0.6% [2]. - The average selling price of steel products was 4,056 RMB per ton (excluding tax), down 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin, expense ratio, and net profit margin for 2024 were 5.45%, 3.34%, and 2.66%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.75, +0.3, and -1.33 percentage points [2]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry faced significant oversupply in 2024, with the average sales profit margin for key enterprises at 0.71%, down 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Government measures to control steel production and prevent excessive competition indicate a potential restart of supply-side optimization [4]. - The global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue expanding in 2025, which may lead to a further decline in iron ore prices and a recovery in steel industry profits [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.43, 0.56, and 0.65 RMB, with adjustments reflecting a 13% decrease and a 5% increase for 2025-2026 compared to previous estimates [5]. - The book value per share (BVPS) for 2025-2026 is estimated at 9.40 and 9.53 RMB, respectively [5]. - The target price of 7.98 RMB is based on an average price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.84X since 2017 [5].