国内市场综述 冲高回落 走势分化 周五（7 月 4 日）大盘冲高回落，走势分化。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3472.32 点，上涨 0.32%；深成指 收于 10508.76 点，下跌 0.25%；科创 50 下跌 0.01%； 创业板指下跌 0.36%，万得全 A 成交额共 14545 亿元， 较前一日有所上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 13 个行业上涨，其 中银行、综合金融及传媒涨幅居前，而有色金属、基 础化工及轻工制造则跌幅较大。概念方面，稳定币、 跨境支付及央企银行等指数表现活跃。 1.稳增长力度不及预期； 2.地缘冲突升级。 分析师：彭竑/钟哲元 登记编码：S1490520090001/ S1490523030001 邮箱：penghong@crsec.com.cn/ zhongzheyuan@crsec.com.cn | 市场研究部证券研究报告 | | | 2025 年 | 7 月 7 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国内市场 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | | 国内市场综述 | 上证综指 | 3472.32 | 11.17 | ...

2025年上半年，散户投资者以史无前例的热情席卷美股市场。 据Vanda Research数据，2025年上半年，美国散户投资者向单只股票和ETF注入了高达1553亿美元的资 金，创下历史同期最高纪录。尤其是在第二季度，散户交易活动激增，显示出前所未有的市场参与度。 散户投资者"逢低买入"的偏好完全保持不变，对个股的参与度——特别是高贝塔和杠杆类产品——持续 上升。 个股方面，英伟达、特斯拉和Palantir主导了2025年迄今的资金流入。其中英伟达仍居散户最受青睐股 票榜首，特斯拉重新夺回第二位，Palantir则跃升至第四位。 散户资金流入创新高，个股主导反弹 Vanda Research数据显示，2025年上半年散户向美国股票和ETF的资金流入达到1553亿美元，创下上半 年最强纪录。这一资金流入强度最初由"美国例外论"叙事推动，随后在特朗普就职日前后的大幅回调 中，散户展现出激进的抄底行为。 从资金流向结构看，个股购买成为反弹的主要驱动力。 这种参与度的提升不仅体现在资金规模上，还反映在每日交易量的激增，2025年日均成交量较2024年增 长了44.5%，创下散户参与度的新纪录。 | Year | A ...

2022 年华润银行引入南方电网资本控股和深圳中电投资两家央企背景的战略投资者后，公司注册 资本由 60.43 亿元扩大至 85.33 亿元。 自 2011 年走出珠海设立省内异地分行至今，华润银行已经在广东省内包括珠海及下面的横琴、深 圳、广州、佛山、东莞、中山、惠州、江门和肇庆等 9 个地市设有分行。可见 其经营地域基本就位于 广东最富饶的珠江三角洲 。 此外，华润银行还在广东肇庆德庆县和广西百色右江区各有 1 家村镇银行子公司。 截至 2024 年末，华润银行共有 139 个股东，其中自然人股东 127 个，法人股东中则有 华润集团、 南方电网和中国电子 等 3 家大央企，还有珠海和深圳当地国企及知名医药企业。华润集团更是其控股 股东，华润银行股东阵营堪称豪华。 一、繁华经营地段，豪华股东阵营 珠海华润银行前身是 1996 年在珠海市 11 家城市信用合作社基础上改制成立的 珠海市商业银行 。 2010 年，央企华润集团下属华润股份有限公司和珠海市政府对珠海市商业银行进行战略重组后， 华润集团成为大股东 ，并于 2011 年改名为珠海华润银行。 截至 2024 年末华润银行前十大股东如下： | 序号 | ...

Core Insights - The banking industry is experiencing significant executive turnover in 2025, with 13 banks changing leadership and 17 executives transitioning roles, particularly in the position of vice president, which accounts for 53% of all changes [4][5][6] Group 1: Executive Changes - In the first half of 2025, 13 banks, including 6 state-owned and 12 joint-stock banks, reported executive changes, with 5 state-owned banks and 8 joint-stock banks announcing leadership adjustments [5][6] - The most frequent changes occurred in the vice president role, with 9 new appointments [5][6] - Three banks saw changes in their chairpersons, and three banks appointed new presidents [5][6] Group 2: Recruitment Strategies - State-owned banks predominantly recruit externally, with 87.5% of new executives coming from outside the organization, while joint-stock banks favor internal promotions, with 78% of new executives promoted from within [4][8][9] - Notably, the Agricultural Bank of China had the highest number of executive changes among state-owned banks, appointing three new vice presidents [6][8] Group 3: Age Demographics - The new executive cohort is primarily composed of individuals born in the 1970s, who represent 78% of the new appointments in state-owned banks [12][14] - The age distribution shows that chairpersons are mostly from the 1960s generation, while vice presidents and presidents are predominantly from the 1970s [12][14] - In joint-stock banks, the age structure includes experienced leaders and younger talent, with a significant presence of 1970s-born executives [12][14] Group 4: Implications for Strategy - The shift in executive leadership is seen as a response to the pressures faced by the banking sector, aiming to better align with economic development needs and enhance service to the real economy [11] - The contrasting recruitment strategies between state-owned and joint-stock banks reflect their differing operational needs and talent management approaches [8][11]

2019年，顺德农商行上市进程不断提速：当年5月23日，其A股上市申请获当时的广东银保监局批复同 意；6月下旬，该行上市申请材料被证监会接收并获受理，正式加入A股上市排队序列。彼时招股书显 示，顺德农商行计划登陆深交所，发行不超过16.94亿股股份（占发行后总股本的25%）。2023年3月， 顺德农商行A股IPO换道注册制审核，其上市申请获得深交所受理。 不过此后一段时间内，上市并无实质性进展，反而是因招股书财务资料过期，多次中止审核，审核状态 在"中止"和"已受理"之间切换。 今年6月30日，同样计划在深交所上市的东莞银行、广东南海农商行均完成财务资料更新，上市审核状 态由"中止"变更为"已受理"，而顺德农商行未保持同步，引发市场猜测。最终7月4日晚间，深交所官网 信息显示，因顺德农商行及其保荐人提交撤回发行上市申请文件，深交所决定终止对该行首次公开发行 股票并在主板上市审核。 目前排队上市的农商行数量已不多 视觉中国供图 羊城晚报记者 戴曼曼 7月4日晚间，因广东顺德农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"顺德农商行"）及其保荐人提交撤回发 行上市申请文件，深交所决定终止对该行首次公开发行股票并在主板上市审核 ...

Core Viewpoint - Su Nong Bank is planning to issue subordinated capital bonds to enhance its capital adequacy ratio amid transformation pressures and has reduced cash dividends for the second consecutive year to retain profits for capital replenishment [1][2][4]. Group 1: Capital Management - Su Nong Bank intends to issue subordinated capital bonds with a total scale of no more than 1 billion yuan to strengthen its capital base [1][3]. - As of March 2025, the bank's capital adequacy ratio is 12.91%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points from the end of the previous year [2][3]. - The bank has previously issued subordinated capital bonds in April 2021 and May 2024, with sizes of 500 million yuan and 1 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Su Nong Bank reported operating income of 4.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.17%, and a net profit of 1.945 billion yuan, up 11.62% [2][5]. - The bank's cash dividend for 2024 was 330 million yuan, with a cash dividend payout ratio of only 16.98%, marking the lowest in nearly eight years [4][5]. - For Q1 2025, the bank achieved operating income of 1.132 billion yuan, a 3.29% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, up 6.19% [6]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The bank is focusing on retail transformation, with customer assets under management (AUM) exceeding 118 billion yuan and retail deposits surpassing 100 billion yuan [5]. - The bank's management has indicated that the low dividend payout ratio is due to the need to retain profits for capital replenishment and to enhance risk resistance capabilities [5][6]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.90%, with a provision coverage ratio of 420.03% as of March 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous narrowing of net interest margins (NIM) in China's commercial banks is significantly impacting their profitability, driven by factors such as declining market interest rates, intensified competition, and insufficient credit demand [1][2]. Summary by Sections Net Interest Margin Trends - China's commercial banks' NIM has decreased to 1.43% in Q1 2025, down 9 basis points from 1.52% at the end of Q4 2024. Different types of banks show varying NIM performance, with private banks and rural commercial banks facing the most pressure [2][3]. - The overall NIM for listed banks fell by 13 basis points year-on-year to 1.43%, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6 basis points [2]. Causes of NIM Decline - The decline in NIM is attributed to lower yields on loans and bond investments on the asset side, and a trend towards longer-term deposits on the liability side, which increases costs [3][4]. - Forecasts suggest that NIM will continue to face downward pressure in 2025, but the negative impact on income and net profit growth is expected to gradually diminish [3]. Challenges for Small and Medium Banks - Small and medium banks are facing the greatest challenges in the current low NIM and low-interest-rate environment, with issues related to profitability and competition from larger banks [4][5]. - Strategies for these banks include focusing on localized and differentiated development, digital transformation, and optimizing asset-liability management [4][5]. Strategies for Improvement - Small banks are advised to enhance their asset-liability management, increase the proportion of medium- to long-term assets, and implement differentiated pricing models for loans [4][5]. - Initiatives such as dynamic monitoring of deposit interest rates and targeted marketing strategies are being employed to improve customer acquisition and retention [5][6]. - The shift towards digitalization and innovative product offerings is seen as a crucial step for banks to find new growth opportunities amidst the challenges posed by low NIM [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the approval of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to acquire Chongqing Bishan Rural Bank and establish a new branch, indicating a significant move in the reform of rural financial institutions [1] - The "village-to-branch" model is gaining traction as a method for restructuring rural banks, with ICBC's acquisition being a notable example of this trend [2] - ICBC has initiated the establishment of two rural banks, with Chongqing Bishan being the first fully-owned rural bank in the western region, showcasing its commitment to rural financial reform [1][2] Group 2 - The article discusses the broader context of rural bank reforms in China, emphasizing the need for consolidation and restructuring to enhance operational efficiency and risk management [2] - China’s rural banks are experiencing a trend of reduction in numbers, with many being absorbed by their parent banks and transformed into branches, a process referred to as "village-to-branch" [2] - The restructuring is expected to leverage the strengths of large state-owned banks, enhancing financial support for rural areas and small enterprises [2] Group 3 - China Bank is also mentioned for its strategy of holding and managing rural banks through its subsidiary, Zhongyin Fudeng Rural Bank, which has established a significant network across 22 provinces [3] - Zhongyin Fudeng has been actively increasing its capital to strengthen its rural banks, including recent acquisitions of shares to enhance its ownership stakes [3][5] - The capital injection is aimed at improving the financial health and operational capabilities of rural banks, thereby increasing their ability to serve local economies [5] Group 4 - The article notes potential risks in the restructuring process, including competition from larger banks and the challenge of maintaining customer trust during transitions [4] - It emphasizes the importance of capital supplementation for rural banks to improve their resilience against economic fluctuations and enhance their lending capabilities [5] - The article also mentions that other major banks like Agricultural Bank and Postal Savings Bank have minimal involvement in rural banks, indicating a concentrated market among a few players [5]

Core Insights - The A-share banking sector has experienced a prolonged period without new listings, with the last IPO being Lanzhou Bank in January 2022, until Dongguan Bank and Guangdong Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank recently had their IPO status restored to "accepted" [1][3][4] - Dongguan Bank has faced numerous challenges since proposing its IPO in 2008, including multiple application terminations and audit suspensions, while Guangdong Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank has similarly faced a lengthy process since initiating its IPO in 2018 [4][5] - In contrast, Guangdong Shunde Rural Commercial Bank has withdrawn its IPO application, reducing the number of banks waiting to list in A-shares to five, amidst a challenging environment characterized by narrowing net interest margins and asset quality pressures [1][8] Company Summaries - Dongguan Bank reported a revenue of 10.197 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.738 billion yuan, down 8.1% [5] - Guangdong Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank achieved a revenue of 6.429 billion yuan, a decline of 6.3%, but its net profit increased by 2.99% to 2.453 billion yuan [5] - Guangdong Shunde Rural Commercial Bank, which has withdrawn its IPO application, was established in 1952 and underwent a transformation into a rural commercial bank in 2009 [6][7] Market Context - The A-share market has not seen new bank listings since Lanzhou Bank, with many banks considering the Hong Kong market as an alternative due to the high barriers and uncertainties in A-shares [9][10] - Yibin Bank successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2025, but its stock performance was lackluster, reflecting the challenges faced by small and medium-sized banks in the Hong Kong market [9][10] - The overall environment for bank IPOs is complicated by regulatory demands for sustainable profitability, leading some banks to withdraw their applications due to poor financial performance [8][10]

港交所披露易信息显示，近期弘康人寿保险股份有限公司（下称"弘康人寿"）连续两个交易日增持郑州银行H股，其中首 次增持后持股比例达到了5.55%，根据香港市场规则，触发举牌。 券商中国记者注意到，过去半年多的时间，以平安系为代表的险资在港股密集举牌中资银行H股，频次高达13次，是自2015 年、2020年之后的第三次举牌潮。 且举牌后，上述险资继续高频增持中资银行H股，尤其对国有大行和头部股份行的单家持股比例上升至15%上下。券商中国记 者粗略统计，上述增持行动合计耗资超1500亿港元。 值得关注的是，郑州银行是近期险资首次关注的区域银行。 弘康人寿增持郑州银行 港交所披露易信息显示，6月27日，弘康人寿以每股1.2068港元增持郑州银行H股1600万股，总金额为1930.88万港元。增持 后，持股比例占据其H股的5.55%，触发举牌。 截至6月27日收盘，郑州银行A股当日收盘价为每股人民币2.09元，跌幅1.42%；H股当日收盘价为每股1.187港元，涨幅 0.83%。 举牌后，弘康人寿于下一个交易日继续"进货"。6月30日，弘康人寿继续增持郑州银行H股2300万股，每股作价1.1804港元， 总金额为271 ...