国家外汇管理局：人民币汇率双向浮动，保持相对稳定 金十数据4月22日讯，国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年一季度外汇收支形势答记者 问：人民币汇率双向浮动，保持相对稳定。截至4月21日，境内人民币对美元即期汇率（CNY）为 7.288，较2024年末升值0.1%。4月以来，美方单边主义、保护主义行径引发国际金融市场剧烈波动，人 民币对美元汇率先贬后升，与4月3日美宣布对贸易伙伴加征所谓"对等关税"前的水平大体相当。人民币 汇率双向浮动属于市场正常变化，也反映了经济基本面对汇率的支撑作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of the US dollar index below the 99 mark is attributed to multiple factors, including economic challenges in the US, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the impact of trade policies under the Trump administration [3][4][6]. Group 1: US Dollar Index Trends - The US dollar index has shown a significant downward trend since February 2025, dropping from above 109 to around 98.3097, marking a year-to-date decline of 9.38% and a 5.66% drop in April alone [3]. - Analysts suggest that the weakening of the dollar is not merely a market fluctuation but is driven by underlying economic conditions, including a transition phase in the US economy and unprecedented fiscal challenges [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Yuan - The depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan has been alleviated due to the weakening dollar, with both onshore and offshore yuan recovering above the 7.3 mark against the dollar [5][6]. - As of April 21, the onshore yuan appreciated by 0.16% to 7.2885 and the offshore yuan by 0.18% to 7.2906, indicating a relative stability compared to other major currencies [5]. Group 3: Gold Price Movements - The decline in the dollar has led to a surge in gold prices, with international gold prices reaching new historical highs, such as COMEX gold futures surpassing $3400 per ounce [8][9]. - Factors supporting the rise in gold prices include ongoing global trade tensions, inflationary pressures from tariffs, and a strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over US economic stability [9].

海外策略：关税主导预期，降息高度谨慎 美债方面，受益于关税政策的暂缓、贝森特表明会在必要时支持美债市场，美债市场的悲观情绪有所缓和，美 债利率高位回落。从基本面的角度来看，我们认为美国经济滞胀风险正在升高，美联储受制于通胀担忧，短期 内降息概率不高，美债利率走势或为宽幅震荡，维持高配中短久期美债的观点不变。 美元方面，短期看，美元有可能进一步向下。中期看，美元基本面的优势正在明显下降。一方面德国财政立场 由保守转为扩张令"美强欧弱"叙事遭遇挑战。另一方面，市场对关税政策的担忧更多集中在了"衰退"层面，美 国经济下行风险增大，对美元不利。 人民币方面，汇率依然面临中美利差倒挂、关税等客观压力。但是自美国推出对等关税以来，CNY中间价仅 缓慢抬升，稳汇率信号较强，叠加美元下行，未来人民币走势预计将以双向波动为主。 黄金方面，中性偏多。第一，美国滞胀风险上升。第二，关税政策不确定性升高，有利于强化央行购金逻辑。 第三，市场避险情绪仍然偏强。 关税博弈主导预期走势，特朗普与美联储的矛盾持续激化。 特朗普关税政策转向缓和，不仅对除中国以外国家暂缓关税90天，而且公开表示将在3-4周内与中国达成协 议。美国经济继续处于非 ...

核 心 观 点 近日，在对等关税政策超预期的冲击下，人民币汇率快速贬值，国内债市也涨回年初水平。那么，汇率对 于利率究竟有何影响？更进一步地，人民币汇率贬值会制约央行货币政策宽松么？ 汇率对利率有影响么？ 汇率和利率本质上并不存在直接的推导关系，历史上 人民币汇率和10年期国债利率多 数时候呈反向关系，即汇率贬值时期往往债市走牛的概率较高。 不过，汇率贬值和利率下行并不一定同时出 现， 短周期内汇率和利率呈正向关系的情况也曾出现过， 持续时间大多都在一个季度以内，汇率和利率很快 仍将回归反向变动，一般出现在汇率和利率反映的经济预期分化或中美关系变化等背景下。根本上，国内利率 水平与货币政策操作密切相关，是对国内经济基本面变化的反映，而汇率仅阶段性影响货币政策节奏，不至于 扭转市场利率的走势。 汇率是货币宽松的掣肘么？ 回顾历史上的三轮人民币贬值周期，央行货币宽松并未暂停。相较于降息直接带 来资本外流而言，降准对汇率的影响相对中性，故在历次贬值周期内，央行对于降息更为谨慎。具体来看，央 行在两轮人民币走贬时期同时采取降准和降息，而在2018年至2019年的人民币贬值周期内，央行并未调降过政 策利率， 主要的区别 ...

南华外汇（美元兑人民币）周报 中美贸易战反复下，中间价仍是汇率锚 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年4月21日 主要观点 综合通胀、关税政策、美元流动性三个维度的评估，接下来市场的定价逻辑或呈现下述特征：短期交 易窗口或聚焦关税政策的衰退传导效应与持续发酵的美债市场流动性压力；而在中长期维度，投资者或重 新评估美元信用体系稳定性、全球贸易架构及地缘政治格局的潜在重构路径。这种多时间维度的风险定价 机制，折射出全球资本对既有经济秩序可持续性的深层焦虑。因此，在上述时空交叠的定价逻辑演变下， 本质上体现了国际货币体系的结构性隐忧——当短期政策冲击与长期秩序重构形成共振压力，美元体系的 边际承载能力正遭遇系统性拷问。我们认为，接下来的关键点就在于经济，即在当前全球经济的"韧性锦 标赛"中，美元霸权能否维系的核心密钥，或将取决于美国经济能否在这场多维压力测试中保持最后的安 全边际。近期美元兑人民币即期汇率与美元指数的背离走势持续强化，显示人民币汇率形成机制对单一美 元波动的敏感度下降。而随着近期关税事件对汇率形成的压力有所减缓，在稳汇率政策框架（中间 ...

4月2日以来，特朗普关税落地后，美元汇率"意外"走弱、但人民币仍相对承压。近期美元走弱背后的"异 象"，后续美元、人民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，可供参考。 一、近期美元走弱有何异常？与美德利差走势背离，兑发达市场与新兴市场分化 年初以来，美元持续走弱，兑发达市场与新兴市场货币的走势明显分化。 1月10日以来，美元持续走 弱；截至4月17日，美元指数跌破100关口、跌至99.4，跌幅高达9.3%。分经济体来看，美元兑发达市 场、新兴市场货币的走势明显分化，分别回落7.6%、1.4%。 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 李欣越 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 李欣越 4月7日以前，美元的走弱主因美国衰退预期的升温。 1月10日以来，美国经济持续走弱，花旗经济意外 指数由14.5回落至-19.5。衰退担忧下，市场的降息预期也逐步回升，由1.2次一度升至4月4日的4.2次，10 年期美债利率随之大幅回落62bp、导致了美元的相对疲软。 4月7日以来，美债利率反弹、但美元仍在走弱，或因海外资金在"逃离美国"。 市场完成了从"flight to safety"向"flight to non-US"的切 ...

赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 李欣越 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 李欣越 摘要 4月2日以来，特朗普关税落地后，美元汇率"意外"走弱、但人民币仍相对承压。近期美元走弱背后的"异 象"，后续美元、人民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，可供参考。 一、近期美元走弱有何异常？与美德利差走势背离，兑发达市场与新兴市场分化 年初以来，美元持续走弱，兑发达市场与新兴市场货币的走势明显分化。 1月10日以来，美元持续走 弱；截至4月17日，美元指数跌破100关口、跌至99.4，跌幅高达9.3%。分经济体来看，美元兑发达市 场、新兴市场货币的走势明显分化，分别回落7.6%、1.4%。 4月7日以前，美元的走弱主因美国衰退预期的升温。 1月10日以来，美国经济持续走弱，花旗经济意外 指数由14.5回落至-19.5。衰退担忧下，市场的降息预期也逐步回升，由1.2次一度升至4月4日的4.2次，10 年期美债利率随之大幅回落62bp、导致了美元的相对疲软。 4月7日以来，美债利率反弹、但美元仍在走弱，或因海外资金在"逃离美国"。 市场完成了从"flight to safety"向"flight to non-US ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector needs to increase support for stable growth and foreign trade in light of the complex external environment and uncertainties facing the economy [2][3] Economic Performance - In Q1, China's GDP reached 318,758 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and demonstrating economic resilience [1] - The total social financing increased by over 15 trillion yuan in Q1, which is 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Financing Characteristics - The financing structure remains favorable, with rapid growth in key areas such as inclusive finance, small and micro enterprises, and manufacturing, all outpacing the overall loan growth rate [1] - The overall financing costs have decreased, with the weighted average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans in March at 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, down approximately 45 and 60 basis points year-on-year [1] Currency Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate has shown fluctuations, initially appreciating to around 7.20 against the USD in mid-March, then depreciating to 7.34 due to external factors, and stabilizing around 7.30 recently [2] Financial Support Strategies - The financial sector should focus on four key areas: 1. Targeting stable growth through timely adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates to counter external shocks [3] 2. Ensuring market stability by preventing systemic financial risks and monitoring external impacts, particularly from US tariffs [3] 3. Supporting foreign trade by enhancing financial assistance to foreign trade enterprises, especially small and micro businesses [3] 4. Promoting long-term industrial upgrades by supporting innovation in key sectors such as technology, green initiatives, and consumption [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the US-China trade war on the currency exchange rates, particularly the Chinese Yuan (RMB), and the implications for traditional trade enterprises and e-commerce. Core Points and Arguments 1. **RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations**: The RMB has been oscillating between 7.3 and 7.35, with market expectations divided on its future trajectory due to the ongoing US-China trade tensions and central bank policies [1][4][10]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs on Trade**: Traditional trade enterprises are significantly affected by tariffs, leading to a halt in US export orders or a shift to overseas factories. E-commerce sellers are mitigating tariff impacts through low declaration methods [2][25]. 3. **Market Volatility Post-Tariff Announcement**: Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration, global asset markets experienced significant volatility, with the RMB showing relatively small fluctuations compared to the overall depreciation of the USD [3][5]. 4. **Divergent Views on RMB Future**: There are mixed opinions on the RMB's future, with some predicting continued depreciation due to the trade war, while others see potential for appreciation given the overall weakness of the USD [4][10][13]. 5. **Tariff Policy and Dollar Weakness**: The extensive nature of the tariffs has accelerated global trade decoupling, weakening the USD's reserve status and leading to a decline in the dollar index below 100 [5][6]. 6. **Euro Valuation**: The Euro is considered undervalued against the USD, with a reasonable valuation around 1.2, suggesting potential for appreciation if trade tensions escalate further [6][12]. 7. **Current State of US-China Trade Relations**: The trade war is currently at a stalemate, with no significant escalation or comprehensive tariffs being implemented [7][8]. 8. **RMB Pricing and Tariff Risks**: The current RMB exchange rate has already priced in tariff risks, with the depreciation being less severe than during the 2018-2019 trade war period [9][10]. 9. **Potential for RMB Appreciation**: If US-China negotiations lead to a resolution, the additional risk pricing due to tariffs could be eliminated, potentially causing a sharp appreciation of the RMB [12][13]. 10. **Traditional Trade Enterprises' Strategies**: Different types of traditional trade enterprises are responding variably to the tariff situation, with some maintaining operations through local factories in the US, while others are exploring non-US markets [16][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **E-commerce Seller Adaptability**: E-commerce sellers can absorb a certain percentage of tariff increases without raising prices, indicating a resilience in their business model compared to traditional trade [26]. 2. **Logistics and Shipping Adjustments**: The shipping industry is adjusting to reduced trade volumes, with a significant drop in traditional trade leading to a reduction in shipping capacity [29][30]. 3. **Investment Considerations for Enterprises**: Companies looking to expand overseas must consider political stability, tax incentives, and local regulations to mitigate risks associated with international investments [18][19][22]. 4. **Financial Risks in Emerging Markets**: Investing in regions with unstable currencies, such as some African nations, poses significant financial risks due to potential currency fluctuations [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the intricate dynamics of the US-China trade war and its broader implications for currency valuation and international trade strategies.