Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - High tariffs are expected to remain elevated in the short term, posing substantial downward pressure on the economy, leading to heightened market focus on China's policy responses and the direction of the RMB exchange rate [3][11]. - The policy framework is likely to remain reactive, with incremental stimulus measures dependent on economic performance and existing policy effectiveness, suggesting that significant new stimulus may not be introduced until next year [4][12]. - The central bank may allow for a moderate depreciation of the RMB to align with monetary easing, but the potential for disorderly depreciation is considered low due to concerns over capital outflows [13]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Policy Response - The escalating tariffs between the US and China increase the risk of long-term trade decoupling, with the US administration indicating a reluctance to further raise tariffs, complicating China's ability to increase imports from the US [3][4]. - The focus is shifting towards China's policy responses, with expectations that the government will expedite the implementation of existing policies rather than introduce new stimulus measures in the immediate term [11]. Economic Outlook - The GDP growth forecast for this year is set at 4.5%, but it faces downward risks due to the sustained high levels of tariffs, which may lead to a rapid decline in economic growth starting in the second quarter [12][13]. - Incremental stimulus measures are anticipated to be in the range of 1-1.5 trillion RMB, potentially boosting economic growth by 0.5-0.8 percentage points [12]. Currency Management - The central bank has already guided the RMB to depreciate by 0.4% against the USD since April 2, 2025, as part of a strategy to enhance currency flexibility in response to high tariffs [13]. - The forecast for the USD/RMB exchange rate by the end of the year is 7.50, but this target faces upward risks due to unexpected tariff impacts [13].

Group 1 - The core challenges facing the economy include the restructuring of global trade, deep adjustments in the real estate market, and long-term pressure from insufficient domestic demand [1] - 68% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate in Q1 2025 will be between 5.0% and 5.2%, while 24% expect it to be between 4.7% and 4.9% [3][4] - The stability of wage and property income is crucial for residents' spending willingness, with income being the primary influencing factor for consumption at 81% [1][6] Group 2 - Economists emphasize the need for macroeconomic policies to balance "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks," with a stronger focus on growth while also addressing risk prevention [1][14] - The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to create significant challenges for labor-intensive industries and consumer electronics, necessitating policy adjustments [12][13] - The survey indicates that 72% of economists believe China may initiate cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in April to counteract the effects of U.S. tariffs [13] Group 3 - The current economic environment necessitates a focus on stabilizing employment, with 48% of economists identifying stimulating market vitality as a key strategy [10] - The need for increased fiscal support in areas such as consumption, livelihood, and broad infrastructure is highlighted as essential for achieving the 5% growth target [14] - The anticipated expansionary fiscal policy for 2025 is projected to reach 8 trillion yuan, reflecting the need to address external influences and employment pressures [13]

新华财经上海4月14日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，4月11日当周三大人民币汇率指数全线下跌，CFETS人民币汇率指数报97.35，按周跌 1.42，创2023年9月以来低位；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报103.32，按周跌1.54，创2024年1月以来低位；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报91.06，按周跌 1.49，创2020年8月以来低位。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 97.35 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 103.32 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 91.06 | 上周（4月7日至11日），市场对美国资产的信心因关税政策反复持续受挫，美国金融市场出现了股、债、汇三杀的局面，美元指数跌穿100整数关口，全周 累计跌幅达到3.06%，收报99.769，为2022年以来低位。 主要货币对美元多数上涨，瑞郎和日元上周受益于其避险属性涨幅居前，瑞郎上周涨至2015年以来高点周内大幅收涨5.3%；日元上周涨2.37%；欧元上周涨 幅约为3.59%，澳元和新元则同样受益于市场风险偏好的回暖均涨超4%。 高盛北亚 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices collectively declined, with the Nasdaq falling by 4.31%, S&P 500 down by 3.46%, and Dow Jones dropping by 1014.79 points, a decrease of 2.5% [4] - Major tech stocks also fell significantly, with Tesla down over 7%, Meta down over 6%, and Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft all experiencing declines of more than 2% [4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 1.14%, with most Chinese concept stocks declining, while Li Auto and Xpeng Motors saw gains of over 5% and 3%, respectively [4] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below the expected 2.6% and down from the previous 2.8% [4] - Month-on-month, the CPI decreased by 0.1%, contrasting with the expected increase of 0.1% and the previous increase of 0.2% [4] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged, with spot gold rising by 3.02% to $3175.03 per ounce, marking a new historical high, while COMEX gold futures increased by 3.73% to $3194.2 per ounce [5] - International oil prices saw significant declines, with WTI crude oil down by 3.40% to $60.23 per barrel and Brent crude down by 2.93% to $63.56 per barrel [5] Corporate Developments - CATL has been approved for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its international visibility and support overseas business expansion [16][17] - IFBH Limited, a leading coconut water brand, has submitted an IPO application to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to expand its market share [18][19] - Prada announced plans to acquire Versace for approximately $1.375 billion, which will strengthen its position in the fashion industry [20][21] - Anta Sports plans to fully acquire Jack Wolfskin for $290 million, aiming to expand its outdoor equipment market presence [22] - JD.com is launching a significant subsidy program for its food delivery service, investing over $1 billion to enhance market competitiveness [24][25] Regulatory and Policy Updates - The Chinese government is encouraging private enterprises to participate in the construction of new toll road mechanisms through various investment methods [9] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange expressed confidence in the resilience of China's economic fundamentals and foreign exchange market, anticipating a stable outlook [8] International Relations - A study from Yale University indicated that tariffs could cost American households an average of $4,400, with the effective tariff rate reaching 25.3%, the highest since 1909 [13] - The US State Department announced the resignation of the US Ambassador to Ukraine, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [13]

2015 年 10 月 -2016 年 1 月，人民币快速贬值，央行开始收紧资金面，稳定汇率。 2016 年 1 月 22 日，央行行长助理张晓慧表示："现阶段管理流动性要 高度关注人民币汇率的稳定，降准的政策信号过于强。" ——笔记哥《分析》 【笔记20250328— 央行：降准降息再等一下是对的（-央行继续净回笼资金-央行原副行长称降准降息再等一下是对的-传央行指导卖超长债+股市偏弱+资 金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展785亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有930亿元逆回购到期，净回笼145亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金价格仍偏贵，DR001在1.72%附近、DR007在2.05%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.03.28) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | ...

作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨张铭心 图 源丨2 1世纪经济报道 梁远浩 摄 3月以来，人民币汇率月线上呈现稳中有升趋势。 月内，美元自高位回落，美国总统特朗普的关税政策落地不及此前市场预期，加之关税政策反 复导致市场对美经济前景担忧，美元指数持续走低，在岸、离岸人民币汇率自3月首个交易日 （3月3日）的7 . 2 9 3 1、7 . 3 0 2 6一度升破7 . 2 3。 3月1 7日、3月1 8日离岸和在岸人民币汇率分 别触及月内最高值 ，为7 . 2 2 6 2、7 . 2 2 1 6。 北京时间3月2 0日凌晨，美联储议息会议决定将联邦基金目标利率维持在4 . 2 5％至4 . 5％区间 不 变 。 同 时 ， 美 联 储 将 2 0 2 5 年 美 国 关 键 通 胀 指 标 PCE 同 比 增 速 从 1 2 月 预 估 的 2 . 5% 上 调 至 2 . 7%、核心PCE同比增速从1 2月预估的2 . 5%上调至2 . 8%。 点阵图显示，1 9位美联储官员中，有4位预计2 0 2 5年不降息，有4位预计将降息1次，9位预计 降息2次，2位预计降息3次及以上。中金公司分析称，点阵图显示2 0 2 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a trend of gradual stabilization amidst fluctuations by 2025, influenced by both external and internal factors [1] External Factors - Increased uncertainty in the global economic environment, particularly due to the U.S. government's intensified measures against China, is likely to lead to greater volatility in the RMB exchange rate [1] - Recent market concerns regarding Trump's tariff threats have diminished, contributing to a weaker U.S. dollar index and declining U.S. Treasury yields, which may help stabilize the RMB [1] Internal Factors - Domestic issues such as insufficient demand and economic structural adjustments are also impacting the stability of the RMB exchange rate [1] - Continuous policy efforts are expected to improve the economic fundamentals in China, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate [1] - Specific measures include the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, and a fiscal deficit target of around 4% to boost consumption and investment efficiency [1] Central Bank Actions - In extraordinary circumstances, the central bank may take various measures, such as moderate intervention in the foreign exchange market and adjustments to foreign exchange reserves, to ensure the exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable equilibrium level [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's monetary policy adjustments aimed at promoting economic growth, supporting innovation, and stabilizing financial markets. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The government aims to align economic growth with overall price level expectations [2] - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized and innovated to promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets, with increased support for technology innovation, green development, consumption, and small and micro enterprises [2] - Efforts will be made to further smooth the transmission channels of monetary policy and improve the interest rate formation and transmission mechanisms [2] Group 2: Financial Support Measures - The implementation of policies such as no-repayment renewal loans will be reinforced, along with measures to enhance financing credibility and risk-sharing [2] - The government plans to reduce the overall cost of social financing and improve the accessibility and convenience of financial services [2] - Maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level is a priority [2] Group 3: Financial Market Stability - The central bank will expand its macro-prudential and financial stability functions, innovate financial tools, and maintain stability in financial markets [2]

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing a tightening of yield space as interest rates reach historical lows, leading to increased institutional interest in various fixed income products [1] - Recent market volatility has raised concerns about potential redemption feedback from funds and wealth management products, but current data suggests that market risks remain manageable [1] - The liquidity outlook for March indicates a significant narrowing of liquidity gaps compared to February, with potential marginal improvements expected [3] Group 2: Currency and Macro Analysis - The real exchange rate of the RMB appears to have released downward pressure, with strong export performance indicating a reasonable valuation [5] - The calculated equilibrium exchange rate for the RMB is estimated to be between 7.3 and 7.4, with short-term fluctuations expected between 7.20 and 7.35 [5] - Key upcoming data points include February PMI and trade data, which will be closely monitored for their impact on the RMB [5] Group 3: Industry Trends and Opportunities - The IoT industry is expected to see sustained growth driven by edge AI, robotics, and vehicle-mounted modules, with significant demand anticipated in these areas [6] - The domestic simulation chip industry is entering a phase of accelerated consolidation, with leading firms expected to leverage both organic and inorganic growth strategies [9] - The photovoltaic sector is viewed positively due to recovering industry chain prices, resilient demand, and ongoing technological advancements [16] Group 4: Energy Sector Developments - Jiangsu province has initiated pilot projects for green electricity direct connection to battery enterprises, marking a significant step in the development of green energy supply models [12] - Investment in nuclear fusion energy is gaining momentum, with major state-owned enterprises planning significant capital injections into fusion energy projects [14] - The solid-state battery materials sector is poised for rapid growth, supported by policy signals and increasing applications in various high-end sectors [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of U.S. tariffs on China, particularly the potential for a coalition of allies to impose similar tariffs, as evidenced by Mexico's recent proposal to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Framework - The U.S. tariff policy is categorized into four areas: 1. Tariffs on China are primarily driven by competition and security concerns, leading to a hardline approach [1] 2. Economic integration with Canada and Mexico, where tariffs serve as negotiation tools rather than strict measures [1] 3. Importance of "alignment" with ideologically similar allies, with varying levels of trade restrictions based on shared values [2] 4. Focus on revitalizing specific industries in the U.S., such as automotive and steel, with less ideological influence [3] Group 2: Short-term and Mid-term Implications - In the short term, the impact of potential tariffs from Mexico and Canada on China is expected to be limited, as their exports to China represent a small percentage of China's overall exports (2.5% for Mexico and 1.3% for Canada in 2024) [6] - Key industries that could be affected include aluminum and its products (9.6%), aerospace and its components (7.5%), and vehicles and their parts (7.2%) [6] - In the mid-term, the U.S. aims to create an "internal circulation" and tariff alliance that includes Canada, Mexico, and key allies, with signs of this strategy already emerging [4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The potential for a "demonstration effect" exists, where if Mexico and Canada successfully negotiate tariff relief from the U.S. by imposing tariffs on China, it could set a precedent for other countries [7] - The article highlights the need for careful management of the Chinese yuan's exchange rate, especially with a projected record trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion in 2024, which could lead to depreciation pressures [7] - A scenario of tariff expansion could disrupt global supply chains, leading to increased overseas inflation while domestic prices remain low, necessitating a boost in domestic demand to counteract these risks [7]